Last Friday we looked at the Tigers offensive Run Efficiency Average. Today we’ll look at how efficient or inefficient their defense has been. Before I go any farther, if you want more information on REA or TBW, or converting TBW to runs, check out this article by Tom Tippett. Now onto the defense.

Below is a table with TBW (total bases + walks), runs allowed, REA (Run Efficienicy Average which is runs/TBW) and Dif which is the difference between a team’s REA and the league average.

The Tigers defensive REA is .283, or 11 points worse than the league average. Converting this to runs means that the Tigers have given up 21 more runs than they would have had they been as efficient as the league average. Given the fact the Tigers have induced the second most double plays in the league, the Tigers could have easily fared worse on this measure.

To translate all this into Wins and Losses take the difference in runs scored/allowed and divide by 9 (again, I got this from the Tippett article) because that is what the pythagorean method tells us is the number of runs to add a win in a league with an average offense of 750 runs. That means that the ineffieincy of the Tigers defense has cost them about 2 games this year. This is actually an improvement over last year, when the Tigers inefficient defense had a 6 game deficit. This could get worse because the season isn’t over yet, but they are ahead of last year.

I updated the offensive stats to find that the Tigers offense has scored 70 fewer runs than an offense performing at the league average for efficiency. This translates roughly into an additional 8 losses.

Now is this to say that the Tigers should have an additional 10 wins under their belts? Of course not. This just shows what to expect had the Tigers offense been as efficient as the rest of the league. The fact of the matter is that bad teams are just plain bad, and good teams are just plain good. On the offensive side, for the Tigers to be league average in efficiency, they would have to significantly outperform their own inherent badness when there are runners on base. The fact of the matter is the Tigers are not a home run hitting team. They play in a non-homer run hitters partk. And they have hitters who, despite a lack of power, strike out a whole bunch. And while there is the art of manufacturing runs, there is still a basic offensive level that must be achieved that the Tigers can’t seem to muster. Kansas City leads the league in offensive REA despite not being a “great” hitting team. They are second in the league in stolen bases and sacrifice bunts. However, they aren’t a bad hitting team to begin with.

The defensive side is a little bit harder to explain. My guess is that while the Tigers are 7th in home runs allowed, they are 10th in walks allowed. While that’s not good, it’s not horrendous either. What does hurt is that they are dead last by a large margin in strike outs. They have 60 fewer than the next closest team. I’d say that the combination of the 3 stats is what leads to their inefficiency.

So to wrap this thing up, let’s take a look at everything together. The Tigers have 28 wins this season. The Tigers have 10 fewer wins (8 offensive and 2 defensive) than a team that was as efficient as the league average based on run differential. Going by pythagorean, the Tigers would have 30 wins on the season. So summing it all up, based on their actual runs scored, and runs allowed, and average efficiency on both sides of the ball, the Tigers would have 40 wins already. I wish.