This is the third in a continuing series of previews I’m writing about the Detroit Tigers. The first part was on starting pitching, and the second part took a look at the bullpen.

We’ve heard all offseason that the Tigers have significantly improved their defense, but I’ve yet to see any evidence to say this is true. My method for evaluating the defense is to use a measure called Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR). UZR was created by a Baseball Primer poster named MGL. UZR essentially measures the runs that a player will either save or cost their team compared to an average player. In other words, a player with a UZR of 10 means that he prevented 10 more runs than an average player. Conversely, a negative value indicates that the player is below average in preventing runs.

The core of UZR is similar to Zone Ratings in that it measures how successful fielders are at turning balls hit into certain zones into outs. However, UZR incorporates many more factors such as situations (how many outs, how many on), park factors, and a host of other influences. UZR doesn’t measure an outfielders arm, or an infielder’s ability to turn a double play. Here is a full explanation of UZR, and here is a csv file with UZR for all players for 2000-2003.

While UZR isn’t perfect, I think it is better than any other defensive metric currently available.

The table below shows UZR information for the Tigers last year, and what I think they’ll do this year. The first column, “2003 Position UZR Runs” is a measure of how each position performed last year. The “Primary Player 2003 UZR Runs/162” column indicates how many runs the main player at each position would have prevented/cost they had played 162 games at that position. “2004 Projected UZR Runs” is my take on what to expect this year. The projection methodolgy varies by player, and I’ll examine each one seperately.

First Base:Carlos Pena
I was actually a little surprised to see that Pena was a below average fielder. However, he is “just” below average and still pretty young. My projection for 2004 was simply the average of 2002 and 2003. In 2002 Pena had UZR runs of 0, meaning he was league average. Because he’s not at the point you would expect a decline due to aging, I would expect him to perform in the same range he has the past two years.

Second Base:Fernando Vina
This was a move that was praised as a major defensive upgrade. While it’s true that Vina was a heck of a fielder, it appears his best days are behind him. His UZR Runs for 2000-2003 are: 24, 10, -7, -21. That is a disturbing slide. Last year he was injured and only played 54 games. That is the reason I expect some correction this year, but even -10 maybe generous. The other factor with Vina is his reputation of turning the DP. Given the amount of baserunners the Tigers allowed last year, and the number of GIDP the pitchers induced (if this is in fact possible), Vina could still have an impact.

Third Base:Eric Munson
Last year was Munson’s first at third base, and it showed. He finished last/near last among third basemen in most defensive statistics. However, given his ability to learn first base in the minors, and excel at it, there is still reason to be optimistic. While I would expect Munson would improve this year, I don’t have any data that points to it. That’s why I project him to be similar defensively to last year.

Shortstop:Carlos Guillen
I was quite surprised to see that Santiago performed so poorly defensively last year at shortstop. From just watching him, I thought he was at least decent. If you look at the disparity between Santiago’s UZR runs, and the positional runs, it shows that Infante was the superior defender. Also, if you look at the disparity at second base between the position and Morris, it’s clear that Santiago was a liability there as well. We knew that offensively Santiago was a lost cause, but after looking at these defensive numbers Dave Dombrowski deserves serious praise for this trade. As for Guillen’s projection, at short the last 3 years he was 4, -2, and -6 last year. Last year was only in 57 games, and pegging him this year is tough, but -6 seems reasonable.

Left Field:Rondell White
This position was shared primarily between Monroe (+12 last year) and Young (-13) who combined to be a pretty average left field. White has a weighted average (recent years weighted heavier than older years) for the last 4 years of +16, so that’s what I projected for him this year as well. The knock on White is that he has no arm whatsoever. So while still being above average in left, he might not be a significant improvment over last year.

Centerfield:Alex Sanchez
I watch Alex Sanchez and I get scared. He gets bad jumps, plays too deep, has no arm, and misses cut off men. Despite all that, his speed helps him make up for his lack of instincts/ability and he’s-dare I say-average. His weighted average is 7, he had 8 last year. I’ll put him at 8 this year as well.

Right Field:Bobby Higginson
Bobby went from being a good fielder to an average fielder last year. Actually, the decline has been coming the past couple years. While in left in 2000-2002 he had years of 22, 33, and then 11 UZR runs. Last year he moved back to right and his UZR was 6. I know he was battling a hamstring which probably limited his range. However, he has battled injuries since 2000 so it wouldn’t be surprising if he were injured again this year. That said, I’d expect a healthy Higginson to bounce back some what, and that is why I projected +10.

Catcher:Ivan Rodriguez
Unfortunately UZR doesn’t include measures for catchers. For Pudge versus Inge defensively, I’ll point you over to a post by Brian. Basically he shows that Inge is better defensively right now that Pudge. I-rod has been on the decline, and Inge had similar numbers to Benji Molina, last year’s Gold Glove winner.

Conclusions
The Tigers are a slightly better team defensively this year than last year. Not counting catcher, I’d project the Tigers defense to allow 7 fewer runs than last year. If you figure that a 10 run swing=1 win, then the Tigers will add at most one game to their win total by their defensive changes.