I was just taking a look at the standings in the AL Central. Here’s what they look like:
Team W L
White_Sox 30. 21.
Tigers 24. 29.
Indians 23. 28.
Twins 23. 30.
Royals 20. 32.
Pretty surprising huh? The Twins in 4th place and the Tigers in 2nd? If these standing look funny to you, it’s because these are the adjusted standings from Baseball Prospectus.
The adjusted standings are actually calculated over several steps. First they take a look at the equivalent runs scored and allowed for each team. Equivalent runs are a prediction of the runs a team would score given their offensive production. It’s similar in concept to runs created, but the formula is more complex, more encompassing, and more accurate. After the equivalent runs are determined, they are then adjusted the quality of opponents faced. The runs scored and allowed are then used to determine a winning percentage. BP uses Pythagenport, which is again an enhanced version of the Pythagorean theorem.
Here are the complete AL Central Standings from BP sorted by Adjusted Wins and Losses:
Team W L RS RA W1 L1 EQR EQRA W2 L2 AEQR AEQRA W3 L3
White Sox 29 22 280 220 31.4 19.6 288 234 30.6 20.4 292 245 29.9 21.1
Tigers 24 29 283 284 26.4 26.6 277 285 25.7 27.3 278 303 24.2 28.8
Indians 22 29 267 293 23.1 27.9 263 291 22.9 28.1 266 298 22.6 28.4
Twins 28 25 260 270 25.5 27.5 263 276 25.3 27.7 261 298 23.0 30.0
Royals 19 32 228 286 19.9 31.1 225 298 18.7 32.3 235 300 19.5 31.5
The Tigers are actually performing winning as many games as they should be given the way they’ve played. The Tigers have scored a couple more runs that what would be expected, but the pitching staff has actually allowed fewer runs than expected.
The Twins on the other hand have overachieved by a large margin. First of all, the actual runs scored and allowed would point to a losing record. Their run scoring is right about where it should be, however their pitching staff should have fared much worse.
What’s most interesting, is that there isn’t a lot of seperation between the Indians, Tigers, and Twins. The White Sox are the only team in the Central to really distinguish themsevles in a positive way.
Looking Ahead
A week ago I was writing about how the Tigers had a chance to improve their season with 3 games against a struggling O’s team and 4 against the Royals. After going 2-5 over that stretch I just don’t know what to make of this team. The offense disappeared against some pretty poor pitching, and the pitching was inconsistent. This series against the Twins is the last AL team the Tigers will face for awhile as they play 15 of their next 18 against the NL.
Odds and Ends
-Thanks to all those who left encouraging comments/emails after my post a couple days ago. As I mentioned, the fact that I get to interact with readers is a big part of why I do this. Your positive comments make it all the more worthwhile.
-Rany Jayzarelli at Baseball Prospectus has an article about the value of Alex Sanchez’s batting average. He pretty much indicates it is one of the emptiest batting averages of all time (no power, no RBI’s, no ability to draw walks, reliance on the bunt). While I agree with his main point that outside of hitting a lot of singles Sanchez doesn’t accomplish a lot. However, I think Rany overly devalued bunting as a means of reaching base. It’s an interesting read nonetheless.
-Rondell White thinks the Pistons will win in 7. It’s mostly an article about how the pro teams in Detroit are all supporting each other. It’s a nice read, especially since White is a newcomer and he has already adopted the other local teams.