Once again Trammell overmanages a game and the Tigers come up short. This one doesn’t all fall on Trammell. The Tigers didn’t give up the lead on the Mauer home run, the game was tied at the time. Also, the Tiger hitters did a poor job of converting scoring chanes into runs. Four different times in the first 5 innings the Tigers had a runner on second with less than two outs, and they only managed two runs. However, their hitting was good enough, combined with Nate Robertson’s excellent outing to keep the Tigers in the game.

The Tigers record in one run games this year is 2-8. Typically, because one run games are pretty evenly played games, one would expect that a team’s record in those games would be near .500 (or 5-5 in the Tigers case). Sometimes these things can be attributed to luck. Sometimes it can be attributed to a lack of clutch hitting (which isn’t the case with the Tigers). And sometimes it can be attributed to a bad bullpen (which has been inconsistent). However, the Tigers have found themselves on the short end of close games way too often this year. In games decided by two runs or less, the Tigers are 8-16. To me that says the manager isn’t helping his team win.

Lynn Henning has an excellent article in today’s paper about Tram’s struggles with in-game decision making. He chronicles some of the stranger decision making that Trammell has done over the last couple weeks.

What’s so frustrating as a fan, is that Trammell is inconsistent in his decisions, and that they just don’t jive with reality. First on the list is when he plays Greg Norton over anybody because “he gives us the best chance to win.” Yesterday, sticking with Yan was a case of going with the hot hand. Trammell said that he, “has been doing a very good job for us.” And yes, Yan has had some great outings. However he’d allowed runs in 3 of his last 5 apperances. Also, with all the lefty righty switching in the 8th inning in an effort to play the percentages, one would think Tram would look at the percentages he was trying to improve. But if that were the case, Yan would have come into face the lefty Koskie instead of the righty Hunter because Yan’s OPS against left handers is .730 (and Colyer’s is .791) and against right handers it is .962.

Now second guessing is easy to do after a loss, but I think everyone was second guessing as the game went on. Listening to it on the radio, Jim Price was even questioning the decision making-especially with nobody warming up after Yan. I questioned burning through 3 pitchers in one inning of a tied game because what happens if it goes to extra innings?

As I’ve said before, I think Trammell does some things very well as a manger. I think he’s a good teacher, and does a good job in the clubhouse. I have a lot of confidence in him managing a team. I just don’t feel the same way when it comes to managing a game.

I was just taking a look at the standings in the AL Central. Here’s what they look like:

Team             W    L       
White_Sox        30.  21.       
Tigers           24.  29.       
Indians          23.  28.       
Twins            23.  30.      
Royals           20.  32.     

Pretty surprising huh? The Twins in 4th place and the Tigers in 2nd? If these standing look funny to you, it’s because these are the adjusted standings from Baseball Prospectus.

The adjusted standings are actually calculated over several steps. First they take a look at the equivalent runs scored and allowed for each team. Equivalent runs are a prediction of the runs a team would score given their offensive production. It’s similar in concept to runs created, but the formula is more complex, more encompassing, and more accurate. After the equivalent runs are determined, they are then adjusted the quality of opponents faced. The runs scored and allowed are then used to determine a winning percentage. BP uses Pythagenport, which is again an enhanced version of the Pythagorean theorem.

Here are the complete AL Central Standings from BP sorted by Adjusted Wins and Losses:

Team        W    L      RS   RA  W1   L1     EQR EQRA  W2   L2    AEQR AEQRA W3   L3 
White Sox   29   22     280  220 31.4 19.6    288  234 30.6 20.4    292  245 29.9 21.1   
Tigers      24   29     283  284 26.4 26.6    277  285 25.7 27.3    278  303 24.2 28.8  
Indians     22   29     267  293 23.1 27.9    263  291 22.9 28.1    266  298 22.6 28.4 
Twins       28   25     260  270 25.5 27.5    263  276 25.3 27.7    261  298 23.0 30.0  
Royals      19   32     228  286 19.9 31.1    225  298 18.7 32.3    235  300 19.5 31.5

The Tigers are actually performing winning as many games as they should be given the way they’ve played. The Tigers have scored a couple more runs that what would be expected, but the pitching staff has actually allowed fewer runs than expected.

The Twins on the other hand have overachieved by a large margin. First of all, the actual runs scored and allowed would point to a losing record. Their run scoring is right about where it should be, however their pitching staff should have fared much worse.

What’s most interesting, is that there isn’t a lot of seperation between the Indians, Tigers, and Twins. The White Sox are the only team in the Central to really distinguish themsevles in a positive way.

Looking Ahead
A week ago I was writing about how the Tigers had a chance to improve their season with 3 games against a struggling O’s team and 4 against the Royals. After going 2-5 over that stretch I just don’t know what to make of this team. The offense disappeared against some pretty poor pitching, and the pitching was inconsistent. This series against the Twins is the last AL team the Tigers will face for awhile as they play 15 of their next 18 against the NL.

Odds and Ends
-Thanks to all those who left encouraging comments/emails after my post a couple days ago. As I mentioned, the fact that I get to interact with readers is a big part of why I do this. Your positive comments make it all the more worthwhile.
-Rany Jayzarelli at Baseball Prospectus has an article about the value of Alex Sanchez’s batting average. He pretty much indicates it is one of the emptiest batting averages of all time (no power, no RBI’s, no ability to draw walks, reliance on the bunt). While I agree with his main point that outside of hitting a lot of singles Sanchez doesn’t accomplish a lot. However, I think Rany overly devalued bunting as a means of reaching base. It’s an interesting read nonetheless.
-Rondell White thinks the Pistons will win in 7. It’s mostly an article about how the pro teams in Detroit are all supporting each other. It’s a nice read, especially since White is a newcomer and he has already adopted the other local teams.

Today the Free Press had a story about the the muting of the Singing Hot Dog Vendor. I only bring this up because TigerBlog wrote about this 3 weeks ago. In fact to the best of my knowledge, Brian’s story combined with a post on the Motown Sports message board are what started this ground swell of support.

I bring this up because there is quite a bit of quality Tiger commentary and analysis being produced, and the majority isn’t coming from the major media outlets. In addition to the two sites I’ve already mentioned, there is Tigers Central which just celebrated it’s third year of existence. And if I may be so bold, I’m pretty proud of some of the work I do on this site.

None of us are journalists in the true sense of the word, we’re all fans of the Tigers and we’re passionate about what we write. We all provide different voices and styles. We’re also not constrained by a certain number of inches to fill (although some of my readers probably wish that I was a little less verbose). As a result we aren’t bound by the conventional rules of journalism, although I think we are all responsible in what we write. Also, we can go more in depth in our analysis than the beat writers can.

Other newspapers in other cities have recognized the bloggers of local teams. While well established in the baseball blogging community, we haven’t been acknowledged by by local media. I don’t know if it’s a lack of awareness, a lack of respect, or maybe we’re just not as valuable as I think we are. However, I like to think that we complement the local beat writers and columnists. We’ll never have the access to the players and team officials that the newspaper writers do so if you want quotes, and want to know why Tram made a decision that is still the place to go. Plus, I really enjoy some of the local writers. I always look forward to Lynn Henning’s pieces, and Danny Knobler is solid as well. While Pat Caputo is anti-stat which is the polar opposite of me, he still provides the toolsy information that I wouldn’t have access to otherwise.

I can’t speak for the other independent writers as to their motivation for writing. For me, I write first and foremost because I enjoy it. I love coming up with a new way to look at something and then sharing it with others. I’d be lying if I said I didn’t care what other people thought. I do care. I enjoy when people leave comments or send me emails about something I posted because it means that someone else found it interesting. However, I’m not doing this for fame or fortune. I don’t make a dime on this site and that’s not my goal.

I don’t mean to be whining, that’s not my intention. And maybe a story about a hot dog vendor isn’t the best way to illustrate the power of blogging. However, this was a pretty clear example where the non-professionals were way ahead of the paid writers.

The Tigers started off the month 2-5 as their pitching staff was destroyed. This stretch included a 4 game losing streak, and the infamous debacle in Texas in which the Tigers blew a 10 run lead in one inning. However, the next day Nate Robertson came out and turned things around for the hurlers as he picked up a 5-3 win.

The win by Robertson started a string of games in which the Tigers went 7-5, but managed to stay in each game. It included a three one-run losses to Oakland (one of which took 15 innings).

The Tigers then stumbled through the remaining few games by losing two of three to Kansas City and being swept by Baltimore before beating the Royals at home. The Kansas City series was memorable for a couple reasons. First, the Tigers lost on a controversial ending when Carlos Guillen was called for interference. The win was memorable because the Tigers banged out 27 hits and Carlos Pena went 6-6.

Comings, Goings, and Doctor Appointments
Nate Cornejo, who had been getting hammered admitted to a sore shoulder. He was placed on the 15 day disabled list and Craig Dingman took his place on the roster, while Gary Knotts took his place in the rotation. Knotts doesn’t appear ready to relinquish his role and has pitched very well as a starter.

Fernando Vina, hobbled by a hamstring also was placed on the disabled list. Jason Smith was called up from Toledo to provide some middle infield depth. To make room on the 40 man roster, Lino Urdaneta was moved from the 15 day DL to the 60 day DL.

And the Tigers were able to end the month by activating Dmitri Young. Young had a two game rehab assignment at Toledo, which included a cycle in his first game. Chris Shelton took Young’s spot on the DL with Plantar Fascitis. I’m sure it won’t raise eyebrows around the league that the Tigers two Rule 5 picks are both on the disabled list.

By the Numbers
The offense actually hit better, but scored about a run less per game than they did in April. I want to attribute this mostly to a drop off on hitting with runners in scoring position. I don’t have the numbers for May, but in April the Tigers hit .321 with RISP. There average for the season is still a very solid .304, but there still had to be a significant drop off for the average to drop.

Similarly for the pitchings staff, opposing hitters weren’t as successful, but scored at pretty much the same rate. While I haven’t done an extensive look, at first glance it appears that the runs per game allowed may be attributable to defense. In April the Tigers only allowed 4 unearned runs as opposed to 13 in May. While errors and unearned runs aren’t the most effective way to measure a defense, a pile of unearned runs is never a good thing.

Who’s Hot
The three big guns: Carlos Guillen, Rondell White, and Pudge continue to impress. The three hit a combined .325/.410/.538 with 13 home runs.

Alex Sanchez has used the bunt to get himself a ton of hits. It’s not just the hits that he gets on bunts that are helping Sanchez, it’s the hits he gets because defenses shift around to stop the bunt. Sanchez hit .370 for the month, and actually even drew 4 walks, although he was caught stealing 8 times.

Omar Infante is making the most of his time at 2nd base and hit .294/.386/.559. He had three homers in May-all at Comerica Park.

Finally, Bobby Higginson led the team in OBA, getting on base at a .433 clip. He also showed a little more power and slugged .465.

On the mound, the guys from the Mark Redman trade, Gary Knotts and Nate Robertson had a very solid month. Both had ERA’s well under 4.00. Both had K/9 rates over 7. And, their WHIPS were 1.22 and 1.24 respectively.

Jamie Walker only allowed 2 earned runs for the month while striking out 12 in 15 innings of work.

Who’s Not
Eric Munson and Carlos Pena. Both are battling for their jobs at this point. Munson’s line: .196/.255/.451. The slugging pct. got a boost from yesterday’s two homer game. Hopefully Eric is turning things around.

Pena’s line for the month: .228/.303/.433. He’s striking out a prolific rate with 25 K’s in 87 plate apperances.

Brandon Inge has cooled down significantly since his hot April. His OPS for the month is .645.

Al Levine continues to be one of the worst relievers in the game, giving up 18 hits and 11 earned runs in 12 1/3 innings pitched.

Jason Johnson, despite a couple of really strong outings posted a 6.43 ERA for the month. While you expect inconsistency from younger guys like Maroth and Bonderman, you would hope that Johnson would bring a little more to the table. The most telling number for Johnson is that he allowed 7 home runs in 28 innings of work.

Lowlight of the Month
While the sweeps by Baltimore and Anaheim are decent candidates, it has to be the debacle in Texas. However, the Tigers could have let that loss stick with them, but instead they started a string of competitive games against tough competition. So while the loss was defnitely poor, the response was a positive.

Highlight of the Month
Again, this is an easy choice. Anytime you get 27 hits in a game (which for the Tigers happens once every 75 years or so) that has to be the highlight of the month.

Looking Ahead
The Tigers play 11 games against Central division foes with 6 against the Royals, 3 against the Twins, and 2 against the Indians. Those are scattered around 15 interleague games. The Tigers host Florida, Atlanta, and Arizona and visit Philly and the Mets.

You may have noticed that the Tigers haven’t played the White Sox yet. They won’t until game 96 on July 23, which means 19 of the Tigers final 67 games will be against Chicago.