Maybe.

Much has been made about how the Tigers lead the league in errors (90) and are dead last in fiedling percentage (.977), so it’s easy to assume the have the worst defense in the American League. While errors and fielding percentage are inherently flawed metrics, being the worst at both still isn’t a good sign.

Then again, last year the Tigers committed the most errors, and had the worst fielding percentage, but according to UZR (ultimate zone ratings) they were only a slightly below average unit. UZR said that the Tigers defense cost the team 13 runs more than an average defense last year, which over the course of the season is pretty minor. Unfortunately I couldn’t find any “in season” UZR’s for this year so we’ll just have to look at other stuff.

Defensive Efficiency is simply a measure of how effective the defense is at turning fieldable balls (stuff in the field of play so not home runs) into outs. The Tigers actually rank okay in this metric. They convert 69.5% of balls hit in play into outs. The league average is 69.1% and the Tigers rank sixth in the American League.

Sixth is not bad considering the number of errors the Tigers have accumulated. So how have the Tigers managed to generate so many outs despite the errors? Well, the nature of the Tigers’ errors are a little bit different than the rest of the league. Of the Tigers 90 errors, only 41 of them allowed runners to reach base. This means that the other 49 errors were allowing runners to get additional bases. So 46% of the Tigers errors allowed runners to reach base. The league average is 56%, and the Tigers were the only AL team below 52%.

Taking a closer look at the errors, 22 were committed by the outfielders, which is 5 more than the next worst outfield. The infielders have committed 49 errors, and their .979 fielding percentage is only third worst in the league.

So are the Tigers the worst defense in the league? The fact that they rank in the top half in defensive efficiency tells me that they probably aren’t. However, the sheer number of errors has to place them well within the bottom half of the league. As for how much the defense has hurt the team, I’m not sure. As for the disparity in the types of errors, I’m not sure which would utimately cost the team more. While the errors that aren’t letting runners reach base seem very costly in that runners are moving closer to scoring (and in some cases scoring), the errors allowing runners to reach base prolong innings and wear out pitchers.

The source of Gary Knotts’ recent struggles seems to be a sore arm.  I don’t know how long he’s had the problem, but I’d guess it happened during the Yankees game on the 17th.  Knotts was pretty effective early in that game, but then was touched for 3 runs in the 5th, and couldn’t make it through the 6th.  Since that 5th inning his OPS against is 1.344 with half of the batters reaching base.

If this is the case, and Knotts was injured for several starts, this is the second time this year a starter has gone out mulitple times with a sore shoulder.  Cornejo and Knotts both tried to be warriors and it cost the team multiple games.  I know that Bob Cluck is worried about protecting his pitcher’s arms, and he’s done a pretty good job the last two years.  I appreciate the warrior mentality, but there seems to be a reluctance on the starter’s part to let Cluck protect them.

This warrior mentality is taking a toll on Pudge as well.  He’s clearly in pain, and it is affecting his game both defensively and offensively.  His pitch selection since the All Star break has been horrendous.  Defensively, he’s reaching on pitches in the dirt instead of blocking them.  Opponents are also having a field day running on him  lately.  He’s only thrown out 24% of basestealers, which ranks third worst in the league.  To his credit, his reputation has resulted in only 33 attempts in 700 innings behind the plate, but eventually teams are going to figure this out.  Pudge needs several days off, regardless of whether he wants to accept them.  I know Tram has deflected to his star’s wishes, but it’s time that Pudge sits.  He’s too good to burn him out in July.

Roster Shuffle:
So with Knotts on the 15 day disabled list, he will be replaced on the 25 man roster with AA reliever Roberto Novoa.  Novoa was acquired as part of the Randall Simon trade with Pittsburgh.  Taking his spot in the rotation will be Wil Ledezma.  The Tigers want to limit his innings to 150 this season.  If Ledezma pitches about 6 innings a game, he should be able to get about 5 starts.  This will get the team close to September 1st when the Tigers can expand their active roster.

Now I have some issues with the 150 inning limit.  I fully endorse protecting Ledezma’s arm.  Last year he accumulated his first significant innings since 2000.  In fact, in his entire professional career he has only thrown 135 innings.  However, a 150 inning limit might not be the best way to protect him.  First of all, I don’t know that a major league inning is equivalent to a minor league inning, and 111 of Ledezma’s inning’s this year were with Erie.  Furthermore, he dominated Erie, so I have a feeling he wasn’t throwing a ton of pitches.  In fact, he only threw 24 walks in those innings at Erie.  So while adding 40 major league innings to 110 minor league innings might keep Ledezma at his limit of 150 innings, I’m not sure it’s the 150 inning limit they envisioned at the beginning of the season.

In any case, we’ll get to see Ledezma make 4-5 starts and see if he’s progressed from last year.

Links of Note:
Baseball Prospectus has a free article about the Tigers and whether they should be buyer’s or sellers.

Baseball Think Factory (or Primer) has made a list for each team of the best players to play their entire careers with the same team. He kind of cheated with the Tigers by making Charlie Gehringer the 3B because he played a couple games there. This did clear the way for Whitaker to make the team as a second basemen. Here is the link to the article.

The Tigers had a great win yesterday in Chicago, and as I’m typing this they are comfortably in front of the Indians tonight.  However, a week that saw them lose 5 games to divisonal rivals probably dropped the Tigers out of any sort of buyers mode they may have been contemplating. 

The team is 8 games behind the Twins, 7.5 behind the White Sox, and 3.5 games behind the Indians.  Even a sweep in Cleveland would leave them in 4th place by a half game.  Then again, every time it looks like it’s time to write off the Tigers, they manage to come back and play some inspired baseball.

Other stuff:
-With the emergence of Marcus Thames, and the submergence of Bobby Higginson, it is time for Higginson to become the 4th outfielder on this team.  While Higginson’s .356 on base average should still earn him starts against right handers, his .373 slugging percentage is unacceptable from a corner outfielder.  Higginson has made some outstanding defensive plays lately-that throw yesterday from the foul pole was incredible-but if the Tigers are truly playing to win then you should have to earn your spot in the lineup.

-Thankfully Tram has dropped Higginson from the number 2 spot in the lineup.  Instead, Carlos Guillen has hit 2nd behind Omar Infante.  Seeing Omar and Carlos at the top of the lineup I can’t help but think back to Sparky’s lineups in the 80’s with his second baseman and shortstop at the top of the order.

-Speaking of Omar Infante, Pat Caputo has an excellent article about the many personal hurdles Omar had to overcome.  In the last 2 years Infante has had to deal with the death of his father and older brother.  Oh yeah, and he’s only 22.

-ESPN.com has a stat called the Cy Young predictor.  The formula came from Rob Neyer and Bill James and their book The Neyer/James Guide to Pitchers.  As of tonight, Nate Robertson is 18th in the American League.  Now I know that Robertson won’t win the Cy Young, and to have your best pitcher be 18th typically wouldn’t be a big deal.  But the fact that a  Tiger pitcher at least made the top 20 is noteworthy.

-During the broadcast tonight, it was mentioned that Alex Sanchez is set to begin his rehab assignmnet in Toledo tomorrow night.

-The Tigers struggles in one run games have been well documented.  They are 5-16.  However, the three teams in front of them in the Central have been a combined 51-29. 

-And finally, DTW whipping boy Greg Norton has been outrighted to Toledo. 

Those with young kids will recognize the title as lyrics from Bob the Builder, but the Tigers put together a solid team effort over the weekend to earn a split with the mighty Yankees.  While my ability to comment on the games is limited because I was only able to listen to parts of the  game on Saturday and Sunday, I still have some ruminations…
 

• I attended Friday’s game, and it was probably the best game that I’ve witnessed since the final game at Tiger Stadium.  The offense was clicking, Maroth was almost unhittable, and the defense stepped up nicely.  However, what I will remember most is Brandon Inge’s catch against the wall in centerfield, and all the starters waiting to congratulate him on the field before heading to the dugout.

  This year’s Tigers are a TEAM for the first time since I’ve been doing this blog. While other Tigers have been vocal (Higginson) or emotional (Young), Pudge seems to be the first true leader this team has had since Trammell retired. Combining Pudge, and the professionalism of guys like Rondell White and Carlos Guillen the Tigers finally have a clubhouse that can take care of itself. Moments like we saw Friday night are why I find myself saying, “I love this team.”

• Saturday’s game was another strong effort, where the Tigers just came up a little short.  They didn’t play bad, but those timely hits they needed just ended up in the Yankees gloves, most noticable Eric Munson’s shot down the line.  There is no shame in playing competitively against the Yankees.
• I think the question everybody had to be asking themselves going into Sunday’s game was whether or not the Yankees would be another Angels for Nate Robertson.  Nate’s only pitched 3 bad games this year.  Two were against Anaheim, and the other was against the Yankees.  Well Nate quickly took care of those worries by pitching a strong game.  The Yankees did hit some balls hard, but fortunately for the Tigers most of them were right at people – kind of a reverse of the night before.
• I find it odd that Trammell took Nate Robertson out with only 86 pitches.  I can understand pulling him if somebody got on base, but let the guy start the 9th.  Just because the offical rules of baseball say when a save can be awarded, it doesn’t mean you have to bring in your closer.  On the other hand, Trammell let Maroth go for the complete game shut out, and didn’t have anybody warming up in the 9th.  I’m glad that Tram left Maroth in, and Mike finished the game with 126 pitches.  However, if Gary Sheffield would have gotten on, then Mike would have probably been going over 130 pitches, because there was nobody ready to bring in.  To Tram’s credit, he’s been careful with his pitchers this year, and Maroth’s outing was the longest of the season by a Tiger starter.  However, considering Mike’s pitch count, and the fact he’d lost several mph’s off his fastball I would have liked to have seen somebody ready in the pen.
• Lynn Henning had an interview with Carlos Pena in today’s News.  To Henning’s credit he asks the tough questions about how Pena hasn’t produced like a first basemen, and Carlos’ penchant for striking out.  Pena didn’t have answers of substance, but it was nice to see Henning asking the questions.
• Nate Cornejo’s days as a pitcher maybe numbered.  He’s heading to Alabama to see Dr. James Andrews and the anticipated diagnosis is the dreaded frayed labrum.  While doctor’s are proficient at fixing elbows, they haven’t been as successful with repairing labrums.  For more on the labrum check out this article.

I’m heading down to tonight’s game, and hopefully at least 30,000 others will join me.  The Tigers took care of business from a marketing perspective this weekend by playing 4 competitive games with a full house.  I’d love to see them keep it up.

The Tigers defense was stellar last night, as it turned every ball in play into an out.  Unfortunatley 5 balls found the seats and the Tigers came up short and lost to the Yankees.
 
I’m finally back, after I decided to take an extended All Star break, just in time for the Tigers’ latest biggest series of the year.  Because this series is against the Yankees, and because the Tigers have been playing well enough to have people excited, the Tigers are selling out (or coming awfully close) each game of the 4 game series.  The Tigers have an opportunity to really put on a show in front of a full house, which is why this series is so important. 
 
They need to at least split the series, and play good baseball to sustain this good will.  Last night’s loss, while disappointing, wasn’t a bad loss.  It wasn’t blown by bad relief pitching, or shoddy fielding.  The Tigers just got beat, which is okay.  Jose Contreras was dominating.  He absolutely destroyed Eric Munson, who has been hitting well lately.
 
I’m heading down to the game tonight and hopefully they can bounce back.  Mike Maroth started out real strong in his last outing against the Twins.  But then in the 7th, his defense let him down and he was forced to try and get 5 outs that inning, and the Twins capitalized and turned his outing upside down.
 
Injury Notes:  Greg Norton is 4 for 30 in 8 games on his rehab assignment.  Nate Cornejo’s rehab was suspended because of soreness in his shoulder.  Danny Patterson began his rehab assignment last night. 
 
 

In Tom Gage’s blog he reports that the Tigers haverecalled Wil Ledezma. Franklyn German was sent to the minors. Ledezma has a cap of 150 innings this year, so he’ll be pitching from the pen.

“‘I defend guys to the bitter end, but eventually you run out of ammunition. ” -Bob Cluck on the Tigers’ Bullpen

Tiger relievers have one moreweek to prove their worth

The bullpen has been inconsistent at best. According to Baseball Prospectus the Tigers’ bullpen still ranks as the third worst in baseball-as it has all year. And finally, the Tigers are talking about making changes.

The problem with a bad bullpen is that the emotional effect that it has on fans as well as a team. Fans become frustrated as leads slip away. Batters begin to wonder how many times they have to come back. And then there are the starters. The look on Jeremy Bonderman’s face after German allowed the homer today pretty much summed up the starter’s frustrations.

So where are these new bullpen arms coming from? The Tigers could call up some arms from the minors. Chris Mears should be at least as effective as Al Levine. Felix Sanchez was supposed to be a usable piece, but he has struggled mightily in limited time at Erie.

The other option is to buy some bullpen arms. And that comes down to the question of whether or not a solidified bullpen will keep this team in the race (assuming they are now). Whlie the bullpen has been an obvious problem, and upgrading 2 of the arms probably would keep them closer to .500, the team isn’t close enough to the White Sox. And if you’re more worried about the Twins, the Tigers don’t have the chips to acquire the guns that the Twins can.

The Tigers need an outfield bat, and a true top of the rotation guys. Hopefully, the farm system has the pitchers on the way, but the outfiled bat just isn’t there.

So while picking up a Scott Sullivan may help scratch out a couple more wins this year, it’s not worth it unless he comes cheap.

Other Notes:
-The umpires look like they need the All Star break more than the players. Strike zones have been ridiculously inconsistent within games and there have been a ton of blown calls at bases.
-Jason Johnson truly performed like a staff ace on Tuesday. He stopped a 5 game losing streak, and pitched 8 innings to give a burnt out bullpen a rest.
-Gary Knotts OPS against in innings 1-3 is .627. In 4-6 it climbs to .791, and explodes to 1.167 after the sixth. While he’s pitched well enough to deserve a spot in the rotation, this could be your new closer when Urbina gets traded.

The Tigers started off the month in a disapponting fashion going 2-5 against division rivals Minnesota and Kansas City. Four of the losses were by two runs or fewer, and featured some unusual bullpen decisions. The Tigers then turned things around for interleague play and won their next three series (including a 4 game win streak).

The Tigers then went to New York and lost 2 games in the bottom of the ninth to the Mets. They followed up those two losses with three uninspiring performances against the Mets and Royals and the result was the teams first 5 game losing streak of the season.

The Tigers managed to win the third game against Kansas City on get away day, and came home to face the struggling Diamonbacks. Jason Johnson pitched 8 innings of one hit ball, and Urbina came into close out a 2-1 win. The Tiger bats came alive over the next 5 games as the Tigers scored 43 runs. The result was a 6 game win streak to close the month that featured 3 consecutive walk-off homers.

Comings, Goings, and Doctor Appointments
June 1st marked the return of Dmitri Young from his broken leg. Unfortunately, Chris Shelton went on the disabled list the same day with a foot injury. On June 21st, the Tigers shook up their bullpen and demoted Steve Colyer in favor of Franklyn German.

Brandon Inge broke his finger trying to lay down a bunt which prompted the recall of back up catcher Mike DiFelice. Also, Greg Norton went on the disabled list with a sore knee. To replace Norton the Tigers called up Marcus Thames who was torching AAA pitching.

Alex Sanchez tweaked his hamstring near the end of the month which caused him to miss several games, but didn’t require a trip to the DL.

By the Numbers
The late offensive surge helped to bolster the Tigers’ offensive stats for the month. Their batting average and slugging percentage remained strong, but their on base average dropped considerably from where it had been the first two months.

The pitchers had a very strong month across the board. Most notably, the batting average against was a league best .246. Also impressive was holding the opposing slugging percentage under .400. So what changed for the pitchers? Were they striking out more batters? Nope (Sea. K/9=6.37 Jun K/9=6.36). Were they walking fewer batters? Not really (Sea. K/BB=1.75 Jun K/BB=1.92) So what’s the explanation? Maybe the pitching staff benefitted from pitching to pitchers in interleague play. Maybe they did well with runners in scoring position. Maybe the defense helped them out more than in other months?

Who’s Hot
It’s all about Pudge. He went 43 for 86 and finished the month at .500. His line for the month: .500/.542/.733. Oh yeah, and he was 4-4 in stolen bases as well.

Also especially strong for the Tigers was the third base position. Brandon Inge won the job by hitting .372/.431/.628 for the month before getting injured and turning the position over to Eric Munson. Munson stepped right in and hit .291/.391/.600.

I don’t know if Carlos Guillen should be listed as a hot player, because he just keeps putting up great numbers every month. It was more of the same in June where he hit .321/.360/.613.

As for the pitchers Jason Johnson posted a 2.36 ERA over 5 starts. Most impressive is that he allowed only 5 walks and no home runs in 34 and a third innings pitched. Nate Robertson continued to impress by posting a 2.98 ERA and going 3-0 in six starts.

Who’s Not
The Tigers outfield had a very rough month. Here are the OPS numbers for the guys who played the bulk of the games in the outfield:

White       .547
Sanchez     .586
Higginson   .694
Monroe      .731

At least Sanchez was 7 for 8 in stolen base attempts before tweaking his hamstring.

Marcus Thames Tiger debut has been a disappointment. He’s 1 for 17 and hasn’t really even hit a ball hard yet.

Jeremy Bonderman only managed 24 innings pitched over his five outings. In those 24 innings he walked 14 batters, albeit while striking out 27. However, his 6.75 ERA has people questioning whether or not he should still be starting.

Mike Maroth managed a 4.60 ERA, but I’m not sure how. In 31 innings he allowed 5 homeruns, 37 hits, and 10 walks. He offset that with only 12 strikeouts.

The bullpen also continued to struggle for the month.

Lowlight of the Month
While the last inning losses to the Mets were disappointing, the one that is sticking with me was the 6-5 loss to Minnesota. Esteban Yan’s collapse and Trammell’s mismanagement of the bullpen in that game, right after the Tigers had fought back to tie it were devastating. It further weakened any confidence in the bullpen, and brought out a flood of second guessing about Tram’s managing. Just ugly all around.

Highlight of the Month
Another month, and another list of candidates. Jason Johnson’s one hit performance was spectacular. And the three walk-off home runs in front of big crowds are definitely worty candidates. However, I’m giving the nod to Pudge’s performance this month. It was simply unlike anything I’d ever seen before, and I’ll probably ever see again.

Looking Ahead
The Tigers have a brutal stretch heading into the All Star break, thanks in large part to Bud Selig. In Bud’s quest to prove that interleague play really does boost attendance, MLB makes sure to schedule 4 of the 6 interleague series on weekends (conveniently right when school let’s out and attendance jumps up anyways). The result is that the Tigers have a 10 game road trip with no off days despite traveling from Colorado to New York.

What will make this trip especially brutal is that the bullpen will be depleted in Colorado, and then they’ll have to face the Yankees. Throw in a 4 game series in Minnesota and the Tigers could be in a world of hurt come the All Star game.

After the break, the Tigers should get Brandon Inge back. This has to mean more rest/DH days for Pudge who will be playing pretty much every day and as an All Star won’t actually get a break.

After the All Star break the Tigers start with 4 games at home against the Yankees. The last 13 games are against the AL Central, which includes the first six games against the White Sox. That’s why I wouldn’t expect to see any deals until right before the trade deadline. The stretch before the break, and the first couple series after the break will determine if this team will buy, sell, or hold.

With the completion of this last homestand, the Tigers have now played 40 of their 81 home games this season. While they still rank 23rd in all of baseball in average attendance, they are ticking upwards. Over the last 6 game homestand the Tigers averaged 30,364 fans and were kind enough to treat the fans to 6 exciting games.

The Tigers home attendance for the season is now at 879,640. Projecting that out over the 41 remaining games would give the Tigers 1,781,271 which would be the highest total since they had 1.9 million fans in 2001. However, to the extent the Tigers can keep things interesting, they have a shot to draw close to 2 million fans.

The following table shows the Tigers average attendance in their first 40 games and their last 41 (or 40 games some years) and the won-loss record after 40 home games.

In both 2000 and 2001 attendance climbed significantly in the second half of the season, and in 2002 it ticked up very slightly. Typically, Detroit draws the bulk of it’s fans from mid-June to late-August so this isn’t surprising at all. The exception was 2003’s team which failed to draw anybody all season long.

This year in the second half the Tigers have home weekend series against the Yankees and Red Sox. The Yankees series after the All-Star break has already sold 125,000 and will more than likely sell out 3 of the 4 games. Also, the Tigers have 10 games remaining against the division leading White Sox. To the extent that the Tigers can stay within 8 or so games of the AL Central lead, those 10 games could be pretty meaningful.

To reach 2 million fans for the first time since Comerica opened in 2000 (2.5 million) the Tigers would need to average 27,325 fans the rest of the way. That seems like a very reachable goal given the remaining games and the way the team is playing.

One more note on attendance… The Tigers rank 23rd in the majors in attendance, but third in the AL Central. Of the bottom 11 teams in attendance, five are from the AL Central.