Prospects
Baseball America published their list of the top 10 Tigers prospects. Curtis Granderson tops this year list.

1. Curtis Granderson, of
2. Kyle Sleeth, rhp
3. Justin Verlander, rhp
4. Joel Zumaya, rhp
5. Humberto Sanchez, rhp
6. Tony Giarratano, ss
7. Jeff Frazier, of
8. Ryan Raburn, 2b
9. Eric Beattie, rhp
10. Eulogio de la Cruz, rhp

Notice that 3 members of the top 10 were drafted last year, and had little (Jeff Frazier 79 AB’s before breaking his hand) or no experience (Verlander, Beattie) at the professional level. Unfortunately this speaks more to the quality of the farm system then the quality of the 2004 draft.

The most notable omission from the list is Chris Shelton. In Pat Caputo’s chat, he cited Shelton’s lack of athleticism and the fact Shelton doesn’t sting the ball as why he didn’t make the top 10. Chris Kline’s review of the top 20 AFL prospects corroborates Caputo’s findings, as Shelton didn’t make the top 20. This despite Shelton out performing everyone on the list in the AFL

With Shelton we get to see the split between performance versus tools analysis of players. Tools wise he grades out pretty average. He’s poor defensively, has a poor arm, is slow, and doesn’t hit for power. However, he does hit, and his performance in the AFL showed that. Now maybe I don’t remember clearly, but Wade Boggs didn’t really sting the ball, or play great defense (27 errors his first full season at 3B, and 20 the next year). However, he managed to put together a pretty nice career .415 OBA. I have no idea how scouts graded Boggs, and I’m working from my memory of his playing days. Maybe scouts loved him, and he was a stud defensively who hit line shots all around the field, but I don’t remember him that way.

Am I saying that Shelton will be the second coming of Wade Boggs? Of course not. I’m just not ready to dismiss him because of how he grades out. I would definitely prefer if he could play some position, but what is wrong with a team developing a designated hitter? Why should the position always seem to go to an aging player with bad knees. If a young guy can hit, then let him hit.

Other Stuff
While a ton of baseball blogs have come and gone in the last couple years, Twins Geek is still going strong. John Bonnes’ site has been around longer than this one, and it’s one of the blogs that I try to emulate here. Well, at the beginning of the season, John got a deal to blog about the Twins for the Star Tribune. John’s final post for the Star-Trib ran last week. In his piece, Bonnes talks about some of the conflict between bloggers and journalists

and why it doesn’t have to be that way…

Between what John has already said, and Aaron Gleeman weighing in on the issue there isn’t really more for me to add. I just wanted to give a shout out to Twinsgeek as it returns to its old home.

There’s a lot to touch on after this weekend, so let’s get right to it…

Jayson Stark’s Grumblings
Jayson Stark’s recent column had quite a bit on the Tigers. According to Jayson’s sources, the Tigers were the only team offering multiple years to Percival.

However, he also has a source from an AL front office that thinks the Tigers are just a couple players away from being contenders.

Stark also quotes Steve Finley’s agent as saying the Tigers have been “Extremely Aggressive” in pursuing Finley.

The 40 Man Roster
The Tigers also finalized their 40 man roster on Friday. The moves included activating Fernando Rodney, Chris Spurling, and Fernando Vina from the 60 day DL. They also added Mark Woodyard from Erie.

Woodyard will be 26 next season, and his highest level to date is AA ball. In a variety of pitching roles with Erie last season the righthander compiled a 6-4 record and 3.42 ERA. His K/9 of 4.84 isn’t particularly impressive, nor was his 3.25 BB/9. His most impressive stat would be the 5 homers in 102IP.

To make room for these additions, Nate Cornejo was activated and outrighted to Toledo. Matt Roney, Don Kelly, and Felix Sanchez were also outrighted to Toledo.

I was surprised to see Roney left unprotected. He’s a year younger than Woodyard, had a better K rate (6.01) last year, and has pitched at the major league level. Now Roney did allow 20 homers for Erie last year, and he didn’t really dominate when he was with the Tigers. However, he seemed like he could potentially provide some bullpen depth.

Felix Sanchez you may remember is the player the Tigers acquired in the Jon Connolly trade last year. Sanchez had 14 unremarkable apperances for Erie last year. Connolly went 9-5 with a 2.40 ERA in High A ball. He also improved his K rate (6.94 from 5.64 the previous season) and his BB rate (1.56 from 2.06 the previous season).

Arizona Hardware
A couple of Tigers fared extremely well inthe Arizona Fall League. Chris Shelton captured MVP honors while leading the league in BA, OBP, SLG, H, and RBI. He was also named to the all prospect team as a catcher, first baseman, and utility player. Curtis Granderson also received all prospect team honors as a centerfielder.

With Redbird Nation and Bambino’s Curse closing up shop in the last few weeks, Jon Weisman of Dodger Thougts takes a look at The Disposable Baseball Blogger. If you’re interested in the state of baseball blogging, it is an excellent read.

I know that over the last few months I’ve been contemplating the future of DTW. I felt bad that I neglected the blog for the last month of the season, and didn’t even weigh in on any of the postseason. A lack of time, and a lack of things to say are what kept me away from the keyboard. Posts about my lack of posting out numbered posts containing analysis or thoughts.

I thought about taking on additional writers to get more consistent and fresher material. In the end though, I wanted the voice of DTW to be mine, and mine only (whatever that means). I decided not to close up shop, because I don’t want to quit before I get the chance to blog during a pennant race. I’ve spent so long writing about bad teams, that I want the chance to cover a good team. Hopefully I’ll get that chance next year.

In the meantime, I’ve got a whole off sesaon to kill. Ideally, we’ll have quite a few Tiger signings or trades to talk about. In case we don’t though, I’m taking requests. If there are any Tiger topics you’d like me to address, let me know. If there is any analysis that you’d like to see done, let me know. I can’t guarantee that I’ll be able to do it, but I’ll give it a shot.

In the next week or two Baseball America will be coming out with their list of the top 10 Tiger prospects. By the sounds of things, Pat Caputo had a hard time coming up with ten. BA recently published the top 20 prospects in each minor league. For the Tigers, they have teams in the Gulf Coast League (Lakeland), NY-Penn league (Oneonta), the Midwest League (West Michigan), the Florida State League (Lakeland), the Eastern League (Erie), and the International League (Toledo). That’s six leagues, which means six lists, which means there are 120 players on those six lists. Unfortunately only 3 of those 120 players are in the Tigers organization.

The Tigers A Lakeland team was represented on the FSL list by Tony Giarrtano (9) and Kyle Sleeth (20). Erie’s lone representative was Curtis Granderson who was seventh on the Eastern League list. In all fairness Wil Ledezma was well on his way to making this list but he did so well he got the call in July. Also, Chris Shelton who was stuck on the roster as a Rule 5 pick also looks like a legitimate prospect as he is destroying the Arizona Fall Leauge (.407/.472/.725)

Even if you include Ledezma and Shelton things look pretty bleak. Members of last year’s top 10 struggled in 2004. Brent Clevlen and Scott Moore weren’t able to adjust to High A ball. Cody Kirkland who showed promise at Oneonta never got it going for West Michigan. Rob Henkel’s career could be over after suffering a torn labrum. Jay Sborz actually pitched worse in his second tour of rookie ball for the GCL Tigers.

Kyle Sleeth did progress up to Erie where he battled with injury and AA hitters. Joel Zumaya also showed progress. Kenny Baugh made it through a whole season which is a huge step forward for him.

However, the void of talent in the minor leagues is what led to the demotion of Greg Smith from scouting director. It will also cause the Tigers to spend more for free agent position players than they’d probably like to, because they’ve had such a hard time developing their own.

Free agent season is officially underway, and the top 3 names that have been talked about with regard to Detroit are Corey Koskie, Carl Pavano, and Derek Lowe.

Corey Koskie
The Tigers are rumored to have been in touch with Koskie who made $4.5 million last year. Koskie is a solid player who was hampered by injuries last year. Defensively he would be an upgrade over the Munson/Inge platoon of last year. Offensively, he would probably be a slight upgrade. He has a better eye and more power than Inge. Plus he has a track record of being a decent hitter as opposed to Inge to has one good season. Koskie’s runs created/27 was 5.56 last year as opposed to Inge’s 5.78. While Koskie is a solid player with a decent track record, I don’t think the upgrade would be worth the cost considering Koskie would cost about $4 million more than Inge.

Carl Pavano
I’m not sure how interested Pavano is in coming to Detroit, but at least his agent is interested in creating that perception. Pavano had his first big season last year at the age of 28. He had a 3.00 ERA and a 137 ERA+. He had 5.62 K/9 last year, which is right in line with his career numbers (5.64). His biggest boost came from a drop in HR’s allowed (.65/9 IP sea., .91/9 IP car.) and walks allowed (1.98 /9 IP sea., 2.60/ 9IP car.). Pavano would definitely upgrade the staff and be a legitimate top of the rotation guy. Assuming the Tigers could land him, is it worth the cost?

Pat Caputo’s column today argues against chasing free agent pitching and he makes some compelling arguments. First is that Bonderman may be ready to become the staff ace. If he can build upon how he finished last season that would be hard to argue. Second, the Tigers farm system consists of an outfielder, a shortstop, and a handful of high ceiling pitchers. The Tigers have no organizational depth of position players so free agent dollars should be spent on bats.

If someone were to get bumped from the rotation, if it were up to me it would be Jason Johnson. He had some nice apperances, and a strong June but by an large was a disappointment. I bring this up because then not only are you spending about $9-10 million to add Pavano to the rotation, you’re still paying Johnson $3.5 million to not be in the rotation.

I guess my thoughts on Pavano are that I’ll be happy if the Tigers get him, I just don’t want them to be hamstrung in the future by the cost of his contract.

Derek Lowe
Derek Lowe was a fine reliever, and had a great year his first season as a starter in 2002. However, the last two years have seen him slip. His WHIP has climbed from .974 in 2002 to 1.417 in 2003, to 1.614 last year. In 2002 his HR/9 IP was .49, last year it was .74 (a 50% increase). I know Lowe is from Dearborn. I know he pitched great in the postseason. However, I don’t see him helping the Tigers.

In conclusion, I like Koskie, but not at the price it will take to get him. I like Pavano, but I’m a little leery of the future repercussions of a large and long contract especially since pitching is an area of relative strength for the Tigers. As for Lowe, I don’t like him at any price.

The Tigers signed Jamie Walker for $900,000. Walker is a solid left handed reliever, and the Tigers would be hard pressed to find a free agent that could offer the same production at a better price. Walker struggled at the end of the season, but the entire bullpen seemed to collapse was roles changed with the loss of Urbina.

The Tigers also decided not to pick up Al Levine’s $1.1 million option. While Levine redeemed himself by pitching better in August and September, he was brutal before the All Star break. The fact of the matter is, Levine hasn’t had good peripherals. He isn’t overpowering enough to keep guys off balance, and he can’t strike guys out. Given the Tigers below average defense, the pitching staff has to keep the ball out of play and Levine couldn’t do that. If he can be resigned much cheaper (and especially to a minor league contract) he could provide some organizational depth. However, his option price was prohibitive.

The story on Craig Monroe throughout his career is that he’s a 4th outfielder that has some legitimate, albeit inconsistent power. Monroe will turn 28 during spring training in 2005 so we should be seeing the peak of his production. Fortunately, 2004 seemed to be a big step forward for Craig.

Craig finished the season hitting a very respectable .293/.337/.488. That amounted to a considerable improvement over his 2003 season .240/.287/.449. His OPS+ of 115 was solid and he saw playing time at all 3 outfield positions.

Monroe got significant playing time early in the season when Dmitri Young went down with his broken leg. He struggled early on, but then his average began to rise during May and by the end of June he was hitting .279. However, Monroe’s power had all but vanished. His slugging percentage was a pitiful .371 at the All Star break.

Unfortunately, Craig had a stint on the DL in late July. However when he returned, he returned in dramatic fashion. Before going on the DL, Monroe had 4 homers on the season. Upon returning on August 8th, he crushed 14 dingers over the last two months of the season. He slugged .764 and .547 in August and September respectively. He also managed to keep his batting average in the .290’s during those months.

Also noteworthy for Craig are his lefty/righty splits. In 2003 he destroyed left handed pitchers. In fact the disparity between the way he hit lefties and righties was way outside the normal bounds. Right handed hitters are expected to have an OPS 9% better against lefties than righties. In 2003 Monroe was 61% better against southpaws so the expectation was that he would probably hit righties a little better, and lefties a little worse in the future. This played out in strongly in 2004.

Last year Craig’s OPS against left handers was .722, but against right handers it was .881. The result is that instead of the expected ratio of 1.09, it was .82. After the dramatic correction last year, his career ratio is 1.12 which is much closer to what is expected. The really good news is that his 2003 numbers against lefthanders were more indicative of his talent than his 2003 numbers against right handers.

If Monroe can continue to improve in 2005 his bat should be good enough to keep him in the lineup. The Tigers outfield will be crowded next year, but Monroe has an advantage in that he can competently play all 3 positions. He doesn’t have the range of a typical centerfielder, but can make spot starts there. Rondell White will get the bulk of the playing time in left. That leaves right field as the primary position available for Monroe. He has the power to actually play a corner outfield position which is more than can be said for Bobby Higginson.

I believe that Monroe will be arbitration eligible, but he should still be able to be retained for well under $1 million (and if he’s not arb-elg, he could be a bargain at $330k). Given that Monroe is coming into his peak seasons, I don’t know that the Tigers can find a free agent bat that can match Monroe’s at a similar price. The fact that he was able to establish last year that he can hit right handed pitching was an encouraging sign. Monroe still strikes out a lot, tries to pull too many pitches, and doesn’t walk enough. However, short of the Tigers signing Carlos Beltran, Monroe should be part of the Tigers plans next season.