I was just taking a look at the standings in the AL Central. Here’s what they look like:

Team             W    L       
White_Sox        30.  21.       
Tigers           24.  29.       
Indians          23.  28.       
Twins            23.  30.      
Royals           20.  32.     

Pretty surprising huh? The Twins in 4th place and the Tigers in 2nd? If these standing look funny to you, it’s because these are the adjusted standings from Baseball Prospectus.

The adjusted standings are actually calculated over several steps. First they take a look at the equivalent runs scored and allowed for each team. Equivalent runs are a prediction of the runs a team would score given their offensive production. It’s similar in concept to runs created, but the formula is more complex, more encompassing, and more accurate. After the equivalent runs are determined, they are then adjusted the quality of opponents faced. The runs scored and allowed are then used to determine a winning percentage. BP uses Pythagenport, which is again an enhanced version of the Pythagorean theorem.

Here are the complete AL Central Standings from BP sorted by Adjusted Wins and Losses:

Team        W    L      RS   RA  W1   L1     EQR EQRA  W2   L2    AEQR AEQRA W3   L3 
White Sox   29   22     280  220 31.4 19.6    288  234 30.6 20.4    292  245 29.9 21.1   
Tigers      24   29     283  284 26.4 26.6    277  285 25.7 27.3    278  303 24.2 28.8  
Indians     22   29     267  293 23.1 27.9    263  291 22.9 28.1    266  298 22.6 28.4 
Twins       28   25     260  270 25.5 27.5    263  276 25.3 27.7    261  298 23.0 30.0  
Royals      19   32     228  286 19.9 31.1    225  298 18.7 32.3    235  300 19.5 31.5

The Tigers are actually performing winning as many games as they should be given the way they’ve played. The Tigers have scored a couple more runs that what would be expected, but the pitching staff has actually allowed fewer runs than expected.

The Twins on the other hand have overachieved by a large margin. First of all, the actual runs scored and allowed would point to a losing record. Their run scoring is right about where it should be, however their pitching staff should have fared much worse.

What’s most interesting, is that there isn’t a lot of seperation between the Indians, Tigers, and Twins. The White Sox are the only team in the Central to really distinguish themsevles in a positive way.

Looking Ahead
A week ago I was writing about how the Tigers had a chance to improve their season with 3 games against a struggling O’s team and 4 against the Royals. After going 2-5 over that stretch I just don’t know what to make of this team. The offense disappeared against some pretty poor pitching, and the pitching was inconsistent. This series against the Twins is the last AL team the Tigers will face for awhile as they play 15 of their next 18 against the NL.

Odds and Ends
-Thanks to all those who left encouraging comments/emails after my post a couple days ago. As I mentioned, the fact that I get to interact with readers is a big part of why I do this. Your positive comments make it all the more worthwhile.
-Rany Jayzarelli at Baseball Prospectus has an article about the value of Alex Sanchez’s batting average. He pretty much indicates it is one of the emptiest batting averages of all time (no power, no RBI’s, no ability to draw walks, reliance on the bunt). While I agree with his main point that outside of hitting a lot of singles Sanchez doesn’t accomplish a lot. However, I think Rany overly devalued bunting as a means of reaching base. It’s an interesting read nonetheless.
-Rondell White thinks the Pistons will win in 7. It’s mostly an article about how the pro teams in Detroit are all supporting each other. It’s a nice read, especially since White is a newcomer and he has already adopted the other local teams.

Today the Free Press had a story about the the muting of the Singing Hot Dog Vendor. I only bring this up because TigerBlog wrote about this 3 weeks ago. In fact to the best of my knowledge, Brian’s story combined with a post on the Motown Sports message board are what started this ground swell of support.

I bring this up because there is quite a bit of quality Tiger commentary and analysis being produced, and the majority isn’t coming from the major media outlets. In addition to the two sites I’ve already mentioned, there is Tigers Central which just celebrated it’s third year of existence. And if I may be so bold, I’m pretty proud of some of the work I do on this site.

None of us are journalists in the true sense of the word, we’re all fans of the Tigers and we’re passionate about what we write. We all provide different voices and styles. We’re also not constrained by a certain number of inches to fill (although some of my readers probably wish that I was a little less verbose). As a result we aren’t bound by the conventional rules of journalism, although I think we are all responsible in what we write. Also, we can go more in depth in our analysis than the beat writers can.

Other newspapers in other cities have recognized the bloggers of local teams. While well established in the baseball blogging community, we haven’t been acknowledged by by local media. I don’t know if it’s a lack of awareness, a lack of respect, or maybe we’re just not as valuable as I think we are. However, I like to think that we complement the local beat writers and columnists. We’ll never have the access to the players and team officials that the newspaper writers do so if you want quotes, and want to know why Tram made a decision that is still the place to go. Plus, I really enjoy some of the local writers. I always look forward to Lynn Henning’s pieces, and Danny Knobler is solid as well. While Pat Caputo is anti-stat which is the polar opposite of me, he still provides the toolsy information that I wouldn’t have access to otherwise.

I can’t speak for the other independent writers as to their motivation for writing. For me, I write first and foremost because I enjoy it. I love coming up with a new way to look at something and then sharing it with others. I’d be lying if I said I didn’t care what other people thought. I do care. I enjoy when people leave comments or send me emails about something I posted because it means that someone else found it interesting. However, I’m not doing this for fame or fortune. I don’t make a dime on this site and that’s not my goal.

I don’t mean to be whining, that’s not my intention. And maybe a story about a hot dog vendor isn’t the best way to illustrate the power of blogging. However, this was a pretty clear example where the non-professionals were way ahead of the paid writers.

The Tigers started off the month 2-5 as their pitching staff was destroyed. This stretch included a 4 game losing streak, and the infamous debacle in Texas in which the Tigers blew a 10 run lead in one inning. However, the next day Nate Robertson came out and turned things around for the hurlers as he picked up a 5-3 win.

The win by Robertson started a string of games in which the Tigers went 7-5, but managed to stay in each game. It included a three one-run losses to Oakland (one of which took 15 innings).

The Tigers then stumbled through the remaining few games by losing two of three to Kansas City and being swept by Baltimore before beating the Royals at home. The Kansas City series was memorable for a couple reasons. First, the Tigers lost on a controversial ending when Carlos Guillen was called for interference. The win was memorable because the Tigers banged out 27 hits and Carlos Pena went 6-6.

Comings, Goings, and Doctor Appointments
Nate Cornejo, who had been getting hammered admitted to a sore shoulder. He was placed on the 15 day disabled list and Craig Dingman took his place on the roster, while Gary Knotts took his place in the rotation. Knotts doesn’t appear ready to relinquish his role and has pitched very well as a starter.

Fernando Vina, hobbled by a hamstring also was placed on the disabled list. Jason Smith was called up from Toledo to provide some middle infield depth. To make room on the 40 man roster, Lino Urdaneta was moved from the 15 day DL to the 60 day DL.

And the Tigers were able to end the month by activating Dmitri Young. Young had a two game rehab assignment at Toledo, which included a cycle in his first game. Chris Shelton took Young’s spot on the DL with Plantar Fascitis. I’m sure it won’t raise eyebrows around the league that the Tigers two Rule 5 picks are both on the disabled list.

By the Numbers
The offense actually hit better, but scored about a run less per game than they did in April. I want to attribute this mostly to a drop off on hitting with runners in scoring position. I don’t have the numbers for May, but in April the Tigers hit .321 with RISP. There average for the season is still a very solid .304, but there still had to be a significant drop off for the average to drop.

Similarly for the pitchings staff, opposing hitters weren’t as successful, but scored at pretty much the same rate. While I haven’t done an extensive look, at first glance it appears that the runs per game allowed may be attributable to defense. In April the Tigers only allowed 4 unearned runs as opposed to 13 in May. While errors and unearned runs aren’t the most effective way to measure a defense, a pile of unearned runs is never a good thing.

Who’s Hot
The three big guns: Carlos Guillen, Rondell White, and Pudge continue to impress. The three hit a combined .325/.410/.538 with 13 home runs.

Alex Sanchez has used the bunt to get himself a ton of hits. It’s not just the hits that he gets on bunts that are helping Sanchez, it’s the hits he gets because defenses shift around to stop the bunt. Sanchez hit .370 for the month, and actually even drew 4 walks, although he was caught stealing 8 times.

Omar Infante is making the most of his time at 2nd base and hit .294/.386/.559. He had three homers in May-all at Comerica Park.

Finally, Bobby Higginson led the team in OBA, getting on base at a .433 clip. He also showed a little more power and slugged .465.

On the mound, the guys from the Mark Redman trade, Gary Knotts and Nate Robertson had a very solid month. Both had ERA’s well under 4.00. Both had K/9 rates over 7. And, their WHIPS were 1.22 and 1.24 respectively.

Jamie Walker only allowed 2 earned runs for the month while striking out 12 in 15 innings of work.

Who’s Not
Eric Munson and Carlos Pena. Both are battling for their jobs at this point. Munson’s line: .196/.255/.451. The slugging pct. got a boost from yesterday’s two homer game. Hopefully Eric is turning things around.

Pena’s line for the month: .228/.303/.433. He’s striking out a prolific rate with 25 K’s in 87 plate apperances.

Brandon Inge has cooled down significantly since his hot April. His OPS for the month is .645.

Al Levine continues to be one of the worst relievers in the game, giving up 18 hits and 11 earned runs in 12 1/3 innings pitched.

Jason Johnson, despite a couple of really strong outings posted a 6.43 ERA for the month. While you expect inconsistency from younger guys like Maroth and Bonderman, you would hope that Johnson would bring a little more to the table. The most telling number for Johnson is that he allowed 7 home runs in 28 innings of work.

Lowlight of the Month
While the sweeps by Baltimore and Anaheim are decent candidates, it has to be the debacle in Texas. However, the Tigers could have let that loss stick with them, but instead they started a string of competitive games against tough competition. So while the loss was defnitely poor, the response was a positive.

Highlight of the Month
Again, this is an easy choice. Anytime you get 27 hits in a game (which for the Tigers happens once every 75 years or so) that has to be the highlight of the month.

Looking Ahead
The Tigers play 11 games against Central division foes with 6 against the Royals, 3 against the Twins, and 2 against the Indians. Those are scattered around 15 interleague games. The Tigers host Florida, Atlanta, and Arizona and visit Philly and the Mets.

You may have noticed that the Tigers haven’t played the White Sox yet. They won’t until game 96 on July 23, which means 19 of the Tigers final 67 games will be against Chicago.

If I’d have had time yesterday morning, I was going to write about how the Tigers looked tired and ragged. The result of a week and a half and 3 straight series on the road. Fortunately, I didn’t have time to write because I would have looked like an idiot as Detroit tied the club record for hits in a game. There’s already been a ton written about the game, so I don’t really have anything new to add.

Unfortunately, I don’t have much of anything to comment on the Tigers today. Apparently the well is dry. Maybe after heading down to the game tonight, I will be reinvigorated.

The Tigers come home for 3 against the Orioles, and 4 against the Royals. There’s been no announcement yet, but I think Dmitri Young will be activated for tonight’s game. The Orioles have lost their last 7 games and are really struggling. In their most recent series they were outscored by the Yankees 41-17. Hopefully the Tigers can build upon yesterday’s surge, and continue to beat up the O’s pitching.

One other thing to keep in mind, is that tonight’s game will be cold. Will Jason Johnson’s blister flare up again? With Tiger starters only going 5 innings each of the last two games, the bullpen could be a little thin.

Oh, and one more thing…Go Pistons!

Major League Baseball Rule Book 7.09 (g):

And from section 7.08(b):

In last night’s game against the Royals, the umpires followed the letter of the rulebook and called the play accordingly. The rules make no provision for whether or not there would be a play at first base. It’s pretty cut and dry, no wiggle room at all. It appeared that Guillen intentionally tried to break up the double play. However, players intentionally try to break up double plays all the time by barreling into second base. If you are going to hold to the letter of the rule book, shouldn’t all these cases be automatic double plays? Then again, shouldn’t a letter high fastball down the middle be a strike?

So why isn’t this play called on at least half the the ground ball double plays? Because often times it ends up being inconsequential. Either the runner at first ends up being out easily, or there isn’t really a play on the runner at first in the first place. Essentially, the umpire uses judgement to determine if the interference will have an impact on the end result, and this is what happened last night

So now let’s apply this to last nights game:
1. Did Guillen attempt to interfere with the double play? Yes
2. Did Guillen actually interfere, or hinder Relaford’s ability to throw to first? It didn’t look like it
3. Would Pudge have been out if Guillen hadn’t attempted to interfere with the throw? No. Relaford was even quoted as saying so.

Now being a Tiger fan, I’m certainly biased. I wanted the win, and the loss left a sour taste. I’ll just be curious the next time a player makes a hard slide into second, with the intent of breaking up the double play, so see if the batter is called out.

Typically a title like this would follow when a team wins the third game after dropping the first two. However, this weekend the Tigers had a chance to sweep, and it got away from them. Jeremy Bonderman, while not dominating was effective in allowing only three runs. He scattered 9 hits and 3 walks but benefitted from 3 double plays. Bonderman threw 114 pitches, which is about his limit (hopefully).

Freddy Garcia also pitched well, but he wasn’t dominating either. He only allowed only 5 hits, but he went to a full count on 10 different hitters. Similar to the Oakland game against Hudson, the Tigers squandered several scoring opportunities. This time, I think Trammell is at least partially to blame.

While Trammell isn’t the one on the field making plays (or failing to make the plays), he is the one making the calls. Twice today, he called for sacrifice bunts. In the second inning, the Tigers got Higginson on via a walk, and Monroe followed with a single. So the Tigers had runners on first and second with nobody out, in the second inning of a scoreless game. Carlos Pena was then called on to bunt. This was the second inning! Garcia was having trouble with his command, and Trammell was playing for a run with a poor bunter at bat.

In the eighth inning with the Tigers behind by two runs they once again got the first two men on base. This brought up clean-up hitter Bobby Higginson. Bobby Higginson, who in the series up to that point had reached base in 8 of 12 plate apperances. Higginson was called on to bunt, and he failed. With the winning run at the plate, and six outs remaining Trammell was willing to sacrifice his cleanup hitter to get the tying run to second base.

I like Alan Trammell as a player. I like him as a teacher. I like how he kept the clubhouse together last year despite everything going on. However, he failed to put his players in a position to suceed in this game.

Quick Hits
-I dumped the tables in the page layout and I’m now using CSS. I tested in IE, Netscape, Mozilla, and Opera on a PC. However, I haven’t done any Mac testing, and the browsers I used were all newer. My CSS validated, so I hope it’s okay. Please let me know if anybody runs into any problems
-After touting Omar Infante he’s gone 0 for 8 with 4 strikeouts.
-In 26 plate apperances with runners in scoring position Greg Norton has 0 hits and 8 strike outs. He has walked 7 times though.

This is going to be a pretty uncharacteristic post for me in that it is a mostly subjective analysis of a player. Watching Omar Infante for the last two weeks is like watching a completely different player than last year. In 2003 Infante looked severly overmatched, and the popular knock is that he appeared to drift. Watching his at-bats this year I see a confident hitter with a great command of the strike zone. Going into Friday night’s game he was hitting .288/.387/.519.

He has increased his walk rate from .075 BB/PA to .145 BB/PA. What’s particularly impressive about the walk rate is that it’s coming from the number 9 spot in the order. A spot that typically doens’t get pitched around. Looking at #9 hitters with at least 50 plate apperances, Infante leads by a sizable margin with Chris Gomez second at .086. Even beyond the walk rate, just watching his at-bats he’s not just not swinging at bad pitches. He’s also laying off strikes that he doesn’t like early in the count, and waiting for pitches he can handle. He’s averaging 4.10 pitches per plate appearance. While 62 PA’s is a pretty small sample size, if he continues to use this type of approach it should be a very successful season for him.

So what happened to Omar for this turn around to occur? Afterall, he struggled mightily last year with Detroit and Toledo. In AAA his OPS was just .596! Then in Infante went to Venezuela for winter ball and he had a strong season. Another possible explanation is the influence of fellow Venezuelan Carlos Guillen serving as a mentor. The third possiblity is that at 22, it just started to click for Omar.

Quick Hits
-I’m working on moving from the old table flavored design to a CSS layout. Things won’t really look that much different, but I hear this is a good thing to do.
-The Hardball Times, one of my favorite sources of cool and unusual stats has a blog posting (no permalink) about pitchers with the largest strike out percentage. Nate Robertson leads the AL striking out 26.3% of non-intentional walk batters faced.
-Even though the Mariners are struggling, the quality of Mariner blogs is very high. Given that we’re playing the M’s, here are two of my favotites, Mariner’s Wheelhouse and Mariner’s Musings.

ESPN.com is listing RPI and strength of schedule ratings for the majors on their standings page. The Tigers rank 6th overall (2nd in the AL) due in large part to their strength of schedule. Which once again brings up the question, “How good are the Tigers?”

With the win last night, they have climbed back to a .500 record. They are 4.5 games behind the Twins, 2.5 games behind the White Sox, and a game ahead of Cleveland. As it relates to SOS, the Tigers have played more games (17) against the AL West then their division counterparts. The White Sox and Royals have yet to play them, and the Twins are 6-6. The White Sox have played 6 games against the lowly Devil Rays and 5 games against the struggling Royals. The only poor team the Tigers have played are the Mariners (1-2). I’m not saying the Tigers are better than the White Sox, just that they’ve faced a stiffer test so far.

As for the Twins, they just keep winning, despite not really outscoring their opponents. Their expected pythagorean wins are 20. The Tigers expected pythagorean wins are 19. On the season the Tigers are 3-3 against the Twins. However, the Tigers run production is exceeding what their offensive events would predict due to clutch hitting with runners in scoring position. The Tigers have scored 210 runs, but their runs created (OBP*Total Bases) is actually only 191. Given the sustainability of clutch hitting, the Tigers should regress back towards their expected runs over the course of the season.

So are the Tigers as good as the Twins and White Sox? Probably not, but looking at their play so far this year, they aren’t as far behind as I would have thought. Given the fact we are almost a quarter of the way into the season, and the Tigers are still in contention in the AL Central, I am thrilled with the performance of this team.

The oops, maybe I should reconsider that department
Item 1: Alex Sanchez. Frequent readers know that I haven’t really been a proponent of Sanchez’s. His baserunning mistakes, his misplays in the outfield, and his refusal to take walks were my main ammo. However, the guy is hitting .347 with a .365 on base percentage. He still does all that stuff I don’t like (well, he did take 2 walks last night), and his 7 caught stealings should really reduce the effectiveness of his OBA, but the guy is damn entertaining.

Item 2: Greg Norton vs. Eric Munson: On a regualr basis I question why Norton is playing and Munson is sitting. Well, with Norton’s hits last night his average has surged to .172 while Munson’s dropped below .200. While I think Trammell’s use of Munson may have contributed to his slump, the gap is closing.

Quick Hits
-The Tigers will be on ESPN2 tonight. This is the 3rd time the Tigers have been picked up nationally this year. Tomorrow afternoon’s game will be on Fox Sports Net.
-Finally, this quote from Buck Showalter about Brandon Inge will end today’s post: “”He must be one of the most valuable players in the game today. He’s a catcher who can play center field and anywhere on the infield. I think he has the best release of any catcher in the American League.”

Baseball Prospectus (premium) has an article abouthow the save statistic, and not game situations dictates the usage of closers. They use the Tigers as an example of this:

And…

Now I don’t post this to be critical of Trammell, and if you read the rest of Sheehan’s article he’s not picking on the Tigers either. He’s just using them as a point of illustration. Sheehan’s main point is that the closer isn’t necessarily the best pitcher in the bullpen, and that managers use the closer position as a crutch. No one will question using Urbina in the 9th of a close game, so it’s an easy decision.

Trammell is definitely an old school manager, who subscribes to old school theories, and I don’t expect him to change anytime soon. But thinking back to the debacle in Texas, when the bullpen was faltering, why not bring in your closer in the 5th inning to stop the bleeding, instead of recently called up Craig Dingman. I know that Urbina actually lost the game later, and Dingman did end the inning. However, was Dingman really the best option at that point?

I must admit that it didn’t occur to me to put in Urbina in the 5th inning either, but it makes sense. If you get those outs in the 5th inning, then maybe the outs in the 9th inning aren’t as important.

The Hardball Times have compiled and posted 2004 Win Shares. For those unfamiliar with Win Shares, it essentially calculates a players value based on his performance in batting, pitching, and fielding. Players are then given an appropriate portion of a teams wins, such that 3 win shares equals one win. (This article does a good job of describing win shares if you want to know more)

Looking at the Tigers’ Win Shares, three newcomers top the list. Pudge has 9, and Carlos Guillen and Rondell White are tied with 7. Essentially, these three guys have accounted for 8 of the Tigers 16 (as of 5/14 when these were calculated) wins.

Next on the list of Tigers is uber utility player Brandon Inge who has 5 so far this year. Last year Brandon had 5 win shares all season. What’s more, all 5 WS last year were from fielding. This year he has contributed 4 win shares from batting.

As for how the Tigers stack up compared to the rest of the league, the three new guys all rank in the top 10 in the AL. Pudge leads all catchers. Jorge Posada is second among catchers with 6. Guillen is second behind only Michael Young at shortstop. Interestingly enough, Miguel Tejada (5) and Rich Aurilia (2), who were the Tigers first 2 choices at short, have the same number of WS combined as Guillen. Rondell White is tied for 2nd among outfielders with Magglio Ordonez and Vlad Guerrero.

As for the pitchers, well…Up until this last week, pitching was inconsistent at best. As such, the pitching staff has only contributed 11.3 of the 48 team win shares. Maroth, Jamie Walker, and Ugueth Urbina lead the hurlers with 2 WS apiece.

Random Thoughts while watching Detrot’s dominant pitching:

-The Tigers have won consecutive games for the first time in awhile. The Tigers last winning streak was April 23rd and 24th when they took the first two games of a series against Cleveland. Before that, their only other win streak was the 4-0 start to the season

-Esteban Yan picked up his 2nd four-inning save of the season. Yan struck out 4 while retiring all 12 batters he faced. The Tigers now have 3 four inning saves on the season (Robertson picked one up in Toronto).

-Gary Knotts was streaky for the Tigers last year. Fortunately he was “on” tonight. He only allowed 2 hits over five innings of work while striking out 5

-After the debacle last Saturday, the Tigers were allowing 6.33 runs per game through the first 30 games. After a week of pitching dominance, their per game average has dropped by over half a run to 5.77 through 35 games.

-In limited duty this year, Omar Infante has a .381 OBA. He has walked 7 times in his first 42 plate appearances. In 244 plate apperances last year he had 18 walks.

-Eric Munson sat again despite the fact the Tigers were facing a right handed starter. Munson has only started 4 of the last 10 games (and in one of those starts he only garnered 2 AB’s).

Trammell has made comments that the team is playing to win, and they can’t afford the patience that they showed last year. I can respect that line of thinking. What I can’t understand is how that line of thinking supports having Greg Norton in the lineup in Munson’s place. Norton’s bat continues to be more anemic than Munson’s. So it must be Norton’s superior defense right? Well, Munson’s zone rating is .671 (which isn’t good). Norton’s ZR at 3B is .619. Yes, Munson has made more errors, but Norton isn’t getting to as many balls.

If Tram wants to start Inge who is fielding solid and swinging the stick well, that’s fine. Just don’t bench Munson in the name of trying to win and replace hime with Greg Norton.

Jeremy Bonderman and Steve Colyer teamed up to pitch a great game on Wednesday. Bonderman gave the pen a rest and pitched 7 innings while only allowing two runs. He scattered 4 hits and 5 walks (ouch). Colyer came in and collected the final 6 outs. That’s the good news.

The bad news is the Tigers bats couldn’t do anything against Rich Harden. For the second straight game the Tiger hitters failed to collect an extra base hit. Their last extra base hit was in the 8th inning of Sunday’s game. Which means it’s been 25 innings.

Quick hits:
…Fernando Vina was placed on the 15 day disabled list with a hamstring problem. Infante will get the bulk of the playing time at second, and Guillen will probably move up into the two-spot in the order. Offensively the Tigers won’t be giving up much without Vina. Defensively, they will probably miss his ability to turn the pivot. However, this could be a great opportunity for Infante to prove himself. He’ll be able to play regularly, and he’ll team with Guillen in the middle of the diamond.

Jason Smith will take Vina’s place on the roster. To add him to the 40 man, Lino Urdaneta was placed on the 60 day DL.

…Also, news out of Erie isn’t good for Rob Henkel. It looks like he’ll be shut down for the season with shoulder surgery.

…David Espinosa has made Baseball America’s Prospect Hot Sheet for his hot start.

…Juan Tejada hit his third homer in two nights for Erie. He leads the Seawolves with 9.