That pesky work took me out of town and has kept me pretty busy. Fortunately, the crunch has passed and I can focus some more effort on this blog and my AL leading run scoring Tigers.

-I’m finding that the play of the Tigers has an impact on my mood each day. After so much losing the past few seasons, I got good at shrugging of losses and downplaying wins. This year I’m getting a charge out of each win. It puts an extra hop in my step. Each loss, I’m pretty disappointed. Either way, the feelings last more than just a few minutes after the game.

-Brandon Inge, who knew. Tonight he had a huge inning that included a triple and his first career grand slam. Thirty-six at-bats is a minute sample, but I’m happy to see Brandon playing well. Plus, a player that can fill in competently at centerfield, catcher, and third base is valuable to most any team.

-Jason Johnson had another short outing only lasting 5 innings. He got little support from the pen as both runners he left behing scored. One of the knocks on Johnson has been his endurance. This has often been tied to his diabetes. However, for his career he’s averaging 17.2 pitches per inning pitched which will cut quite a few outings short. In his last start he threw 106 pitches to 24 batters.

-Despite dropping a few games, the Tigers are continuing to garner national interest. ESPN2 has added the April 28th game against Anaheim to their schedule.

-Congratulations to Brian and Tigerblog for all the attention he’s receiving for his 1984 diary. It was mentioned in Eric Neels’ Page 2 article.

Nate has made three starts this year. The first he pitched well enough to pick up the win. The next two starts were atrocious. Cornejo’s ERA is currently sitting at 9.73 and he’s allowed 36 baserunners in 16 1/3 innings. Last year Cornejo was fairly effective despite a cosmically low strike out rate. I decided to take a look at some of his rate stats this year, and see how they’ve changed.

The good news is Cornejo has doubled his strike out rate. The bad news is he has doubled his home run rate, and increased his walk rate as well. The number that really gets Nate into trouble though is his batting average on balls in play (BABIP). When hitters aren’t strking out, hitting homers, or walking, they are dropping hits on Nate at a Ted Williams-ish rate. The result is 17 runs in three appearances.

The good news is that there is a whole school of thought out there that would theorize that Cornejo has actually been unlucky and not just bad. There has been some extensive analysis performed by people way smarter than me, that shows that pitchers have limited to no ability in preventing hits on balls in play. That being said, given that Cornejo has been unlucky so far it wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect a regression to the mean over time.

Last year the Tigers were pretty close to an average defense in terms of allowing hits on balls in play. The league average was .291 and the Tigers average was .296. Nate Cornejo’s average was .303 which was slightly higher than the Tigers average, but not significantly so. While I haven’t been able to dig up similar stats yet this year, one would expect league numbers in the same range, and there is a widely held belief the Tigers are better defensive this year than last year (which probably is justified). If that’s the case, one would expect Nate’s current .412 number to start to approach something in the .290’s to low .300’s.

As further proof that these numbers can fluctuate, Cornejo had a similar “slump” last year when he had a month and a half of starts where his BABIP was .400.

However, Nate had one other thing working for him last year. He had a high double play rate. The league average was a double play in about 13% of opportunities. Cornejo’s rate was 19.3%. Given the large number of opportunities last year, that equates to 11 more double plays than would be expected. Given the limited ability pitchers have in turning balls in play into single outs, I’d expect that pitchers exert even less control on turning balls in play into two outs.

So what does all this mean? My take is that things will get better for Cornejo this year. The fact he has double his strike out rate will be a benefit if he can sustain it because those are fewer outs that are left to chance. However, the increased walk and home run rates will quickly offset this. His ground ball to fly ball ratio hasn’t changed significantly (1.7 last year, 1.6 this year) so I doubt he is pitching that differently. Based on what we know so far, it’s too early to worry about Cornejo. But, I will be keeping an eye on these rate stats.

The first 6 Tiger hitters reached base off of Jeff D’amico, scoring 4 times. Then the hail started to fall. Then in came Jake Westbrook who retired the next 21 Tigers on all of 82 pitches. Fortunately, Eric Wedge pulled him and the Tigers piled 6 runs on the Indians bullpen. For the Tigers, Nate Robertson had another strong outing. He scattered 5 hits and 4 walks over 6 2/3 innings while striking out 8. The walks are a bit concerning, but the other numbers look pretty impressive. Unfortunately Nate left with a two run lead which was surrenedered on two Jamie Walker pitches.

Once again, the bullpen fails to hold a lead. Their collective ERA is 4.84, which isn’t too bad. However, if you remove Nate Robertson’s 4 inning relieft stint it balloons upto 5.31. What’s more, this doesn’t include the inherited runners that were allowed to score (which I don’t happen to have at this point). I’m confident that once Urbina is all the way back, he’ll be able to effectively close games. What concerns me is that who is going to get from the 7th inning to the point Urbina can close? Is it time to recall Chris Mears or Franklyn German? And is there a lefty that can get people out? Walker was decent last year, so you’d expect him to improve. And what happens when the next Tiger starter gets shelled, and they need someone to pick up 3-4 innings? Gary Knotts is the guy know, but he’s been hit hard as well. Should the Tigers take a look at Pat Ahearne or Ariel Prieto? If the Tigers pen struggles in Minnesota, I’d expect we’ll see one of two roster moves.

Now that the bullpen has been addressed, the other issue is our rapidly shrinking outfield. Bobby Higginson apparently turned an ankle last night, and Alex Sanchez has a pulled groin. We know 2 things about Bobby and injuries. First, the guy will play in pain. Second, he’s a slow healer. In any case, he’ll probably miss a couple games. That leaves an outfield of Rondell White (good), Craig Monroe (can be good, but is struggling), and Brandon Inge (playing well, but…). The bigger issue is the cascade effect. First of all, White will be forced to play in the field for 3 games on turf, something Trammell wanted to avoid. Second, with Inge playing center that means fewer nights rest for Pudge. Third, who is going to DH? Norton? Shelton? What will probably happen is Munson will get a couple games at DH, and Infante/Norton will pick up third base.

Miscellaneous Tiger factoids:
-Lead off hitter Alex Sanchez now has 42 plate apperances without a walk. Fortunately he’s batting .300, unfortunately his OBA is .300.
-Equally concerning is that Eric Munson doesn’t have a walk this season in 30 plate appearances. Last year Munson had about one walk for every ten PA’s. He was averaging 3.7 pitches per at-bat last year, and only 3.03 this year. While his slugging and batting average are up, his OBA is .267.
-The Tigers have now gone 50 innings and 5 1/2 games without a home run. The last dinger was Carlos Pena off of Johan Santana in the 4th inning on April 10th
-Tiger pitching is last in the American League in WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched).
-Fortuately the Tigers are striking out more opposing batters this year. After finishing dead last last year, they are tied for 6th in the American league this year. That is probably what is helping to keep all of those baserunners from turning into runs.

Game Notes:
Mike Maroth turned in exactly what the Tigers needed, a solid outing. He lasted into the eighth inning only allowing one run. He was faced with several jams, and managed to pitch out of them thanks to 7 strike outs and a 1-6-2 double play. Amazingly, the Tigers held Jody Gerut to one hit yesterday, which means he’s only hitting .600 against the Tigers this year. Jeremy Bonderman takes the mound today to try and make it two in a row.

Also, if you’re looking for a good Indians blog, may I recommend the Cleveland Indians Report.

Okay, losing 11-0 to Roy Halladay and the Blue Jays isn’t fun. Following it up with a 10-3 to the Indians is miserable. Cornejo was rocked, and the bullpen contributed some runs to the pummeling as well. With the loss, the Tigers moved into a 3 way tie for the lead in the AL Central. They’ve now been outscored by their opponents for the season.

This is where the Tigers need to step up and show they are a better team. Mike Maroth gets the start today, and the Tigers need a starter to get deeper into a game than the 5th inning because the bullpen has been used a lot, and gotten hit a lot.

Other Notes
-Lead off hitter Alex Sanchez now has 36 plate apperances and no walks
-Shelton got the start at DH and went 0-4
-Urbina made his first appearance and allowed all three inherited runners to score

It looked like it might be a tough day against Halladay when the Tigers burned through 6 outs on only 14 pitches. Halladay went on to pitch an eight shut out. The only time the Tigers threatened was in the 5th inning. Trailing 3-0 they managed to load the bases before Brandon Inge, filling in for the resting Rodgriguez grounded into a double play to end the inning. Should Trammell have pinch hit Rodriguez at that point? Probably. But given that the Jays scored 11 runs in the game, I doubt it would have made much of a difference. And just to illustrate how much of a “threat” that inning was, Halladay still managed to get out of the inning in only 15 pitches.

Jason Johnson had to leave another game early due to blister problems. He pitched 4 innings and allowed 3 runs before giving way to Gary Knotts. Trammell has said that the 5th starting spot doesn’t belong to Robertson yet, and that Knotts still may have opportunities. However, after yesterday’s outing in which Knotts allowed 5 runs and 5 walks in two and a third innings, Robertson has to feel better about his chances.

Quick Hits:
-Greg Norton is on a roll. After finally not making an out on Wednesday night (he walked), he picked up his first hit on Thursday
-Chris Shelton finally saw his first game action. Nothing like making your debut against a Cy Young winner who’s pitching a hell of a game. He’s now 0-2 with a GIDP.
-In five innings the bullpen walked eight batters
-And the Tigers are no longer the most exciting story in baseball. I think that goes to Florida who in 9 games have only given up 13 runs.

ESPN.com has their entire staff weighing in on the Tigers. First, the Tigers moved into the top 10 in their power rankings.

Next Rob Neyer takes a look at how rare it is for a really, really bad team to start off hot the next year.

Finally, Peter Gammons weighs in on the hot starts by some perenially bad teams (Detroit, Pitt., Milwaukee)

After watching the Tigers make Pat Hentgen throw 74 pitches in only 3 innings last night, I was prepared to write a piece showing how the Tigers offensive success this season could be attributed to the fact they are a more disciplined team at the plate. Through the first 7 games, the starter against the Tigers has only lasted into the 7th inning one time. At first glance it seemed the Tigers this year were practicing the approach of making the starter work hard to get to the bullpen sooner. As is often the method for this blog, I make observations watching the games, and then dig up the stats to support the observation.

I went to the game logs for the first 7 games of this year and last year. I know that 7 games is too small a sample, but they’ve only played 7 this year, and doing the whole season last year would have taken me far too long. Here are the results:

As you can see, opposing starters are throwing the same number of pitches per start, but they are going an inning and a half less than last year. However, if you compare the pitches per batter faced, the numbers are virtually identical. Which indicates that this years Tigers aren’t more patient than last years Tigers – at least through the first 7 games of each season. The difference is, that this year’s Tigers are much better at not making outs.

Also, I took at look at extended at-bats, or AB’s that went 8 pitches or more. Through 7 games, this year’s team only has one more than last year.

So what do we make of this? As much as I wanted to attribute the increased offensive production to some systematic changes in plate discipline and batting approach, the data just does not show it. It simply comes down to the fact that this lineup is substantially better than last years, which is a big “Duh!” Also, it calls into question the value of plate discipline. I’m not going to make any conclusions based on a 7 game sample size of one team, but the offense is generating 383% more runs while seeing the same number of pitches.

Quick Hits:
-Bonderman had another strong outing with 6IP, 7K, 1BB, 3ER’s.
-The Tigers defense collapsed last night. It had to happen at some point. The two unearned runs allowed last night, were the first allowed all season
-The Tigers finally return to TV tonight. Coincidentally I’m going to the game
-Is the buzz over for the Tigers? Last night’s attendance was 8804.

Work will keep me really busy for the next week or so. As a result, my posts will be shorter, and lighter on the numbers and research than typical. With that, here are my impressions of the weekend games with the Twins as seen on, well not seen at all….

-Despite losing the day before, the Tigers managed to bounce back with a win. A nice improvement over last year.
-Even on Saturday, despite being down six runs early, the Tigers fought back with 5 runs of their own before the Twins bullpen slammed the door. I love seeing that fight in the team, and knowing that the team can still come back if they fall behind early.
-In what has becoming a running item…Greg Norton…Why? He’s 0-10 now with 5 strike outs and two GIDP’s. Although he did make a nice play at third yesterday.
-The bullpen looked really bad this weekend. (like I said, no time for stats, just opinions)
-Mike Maroth actually pitched a pretty good, efficient game yesterday. When he left he’d only allowed one run, but the bullpen allowed its two inherited runs to cross as well. He made it through the first six innings on 81 pitches striking out 5 and walking one. That’s a solid outing.
-Tiger hitters, even while not scoring, are forcing pitchers to work. Craig Monroe’s game winning hit came on an 8 pitch at-bat yesterday. And as Aaron Gleeman points out 11 times yesterday Tiger hitters had two strikes on them. Instead of going quietly, the Tigers forced Santana to throw an additional 32 pitches once they already had two strikes. While the Twins bullpen stepped up on Saturday and Sunday, it was nice to see the Tigers burning through the starters in the 6th inning each day.
-Being forced to listen to the Tigers this weekend, you ever notice that Jim Price always steps on Dickerson’s play-by-play with things like “Oh no” in the middle of the call. Mr. Price, let the play-by-play man make his call and the comment.

You can’t. As has been well covered by now, 10 of the Tigers 23 games in April aren’t on TV. Things don’t get much better in May when two entire series against AL West teams Anaheim and Oakland aren’t televised.

Part of the problem is that the Tigers two broadcast partners, UPN 50 and Fox Sports Net also have commitments to the Red Wings and Pistons. Plus, UPN dropped its commitment from 40 games to 26. The Tigers and their dormant (until this season) fan base really only have themselves to blame. Because of the lack of interest in recent years, it’s easier for UPN to just not air the games. That said, it is a major disappointment that now that the Tigers are creating buzz, there is no way to see the games. Unfortunately, with the black out rules, even subscribers to MLB’s Extra Innings package are in no better shape. Tiger fans only hope is that the team continues to play well, and ESPN picks up some additional games.

After being the subject of more useless info than any team in history last year, Jayson Stark has a list of positive Tiger useless info.

Are you in? Are they for real, or is this just a 4 game win streak? Regardless, it’s fun to say the Tigers are on a 4 game win streak. The fact that the streak is coming at the beginning at the season, as opposed to sometime in July when they are 20 games under .500 just makes it sweeter. As for me, I’m still on the fence. Four games is just too small of a sample to make any definitive conclusions, so I’m just going to enjoy the 4 wins for what they are- 4 wins.

I’ll have a link to a longer post about opening day later today. It will be appearing on baseballmusings.com and I’ll link to it once it’s up.
UPDATE My opening day post is up at BaseballMusings.com now. Here is the link.

Notes from the game:
-Nate Cornejo’s strike out rate is skyrocketing. Four K’s in seven innings (5.13K/9IP) is a dramatic improvement over last year’s comically low 2.13K/9IP
-Scariest moment: Carlos Guillen taking the foul ball of his leg. Glad he’s okay because I’m expecting big things from Guillen this year
-Redemption moment: Bobby Higginson working to redeem himself with 4 RBI’s and getting a standing ovation from the fans in right field.
-Where is Chris Shelton? Once again Greg Norton got the call in late pinch hitting duties. He’s now 0-6 with 4 strike outs and a GIDP. I know that 6AB’s is prett small to form an opinion on, but aren’t pinch hitting experts supposed to thrive in small samples? What else is there to judge them on?