Down at the bottom of my last post, I threw out a factoid that Alan Trammell only pitched out 8 times last season because the threat of Pudge was enough to deter the running game. This is despite the fact that Rodriguez only threw out 29% of runners attempting to steal. Pudge’s low success rate gunning down runners led to some great discussion, and it really deserves a closer look.
There were several possible explanations for Rodriguez’s stuggles last year. Luke raised the possiblity that only the best basestealers are running on Pudge because of his reputation. Therefore, they would be expected to have a better success rate. Similarly, managers may be more selective in picking their spots and thus increasing their chances. I’m not sure if either of these concepts are true or not, but it seems reasonable that they could have contributed.
Jason attributes Pudge’s slide more to deterioration of skills. He posted the following data showing Pudge’s downward trend the last few seasons
2003 60, 33.3%
2002 41, 36.6%
2001 58, 60.3%
2000 39, 48.7%
From 1991-1999, he threw out 50.1% of the 772 would-be base stealers. Interestingly, he averaged 86 attempts per season during that time.
I’m most inclined to agree with Jason. The last 3 years have shown a sharp decline from where he was. Last year I’m sure he was hindered by his hip flexor injury. There were several times he didn’t come out of his crouch to try and throw runners out, and even his arm can’t overcome that. Maybe the new, not so pudgy Pudge will regain some quickness behind the plate.
In the meantime, despite playing in a division full of managers who like to run, he had the lowest attempts against per nine of any regular catcher in the AL. The table below shows innings caught, stolen base attempts (SBA), attempts per 9 innings, pitcher caught stealing (PCS), and caught stealing percentage for the starting catchers in the AL. I threw Brandon Inge in there as well for illustrative purposes.
NAME INN SBA SBA/9In PCS CS%
Ivan Rodriguez,Det 1051 59 0.51 3 0.29
Miguel Olivo,CWS/Sea 760.1 49 0.58 6 0.26
Toby Hall,TB 1011.1 67 0.60 6 0.28
Henry Blanco,Min 872.1 61 0.63 5 0.45
Rod Barajas,Tex 908.2 64 0.63 6 0.28
Dan Wilson,Sea 827.1 66 0.72 4 0.29
Jorge Posada,NYY 1102.1 92 0.75 2 0.26
Damian Miller,Oak 963.2 81 0.76 17 0.28
Javy Lopez,Bal 1092.1 94 0.77 6 0.23
Bengie Molina,Ana 762 69 0.81 1 0.25
Jason Varitek,Bos 1062.2 100 0.85 3 0.21
Gregg Zaun,Tor 789 83 0.95 2 0.26
Victor Martinez,Cle 1108 119 0.97 4 0.23
Brandon Inge, Det 312.2 51 1.47 3 0.38I was surprised to see that Pudge’s 29% is acutally still among the best in the league, second only to Henry Blanco. You’ll also probably notice that overall those CS rates seem lower than you would expect. The key here is that typically, CS rates show all baserunners who are caught stealing while the catcher is behind the plate. Pitcher caught stealing is listed in the Bill James Handbook. It is what happens when a pitcher makes a move over to first, and gets the guy who took off too soon and is thrown out at second. It is recorded as a caught stealing, even though the catcher wasn’t involved. When you take those out of the CS rate, you see much lower numbers.
While another possible explanation for Pudge’s “dropoff” was the Tigers young staff that couldn’t hold runners, the opposite is probably true. While Jeremy Bonderman and Jason Johnson are bad at holding runners, Rodriguez may have benefitted from having 3 lefties in the rotation for half of the year.
So while Pudge’s demise may be exaggerated, his normal caught stealing rates are still on the decline, and he probably shouldn’t be the most feared arm in the AL anymore. On the other hand, former back-up catcher Brandon Inge had a terrific caught stealing rate, and yet it stopped absolutely nobody from trying to run on him.
Other Notes:
-Hardball Times takes a look at the Doyle Alexander/John Smoltz trade from 1987. While typically referred to as one of the most lopsided deals, it managed to help both teams accomlish what they were looking for. Alexander got the Tigers to the playoffs, and Smoltz became a fixture in Atlanta.
-The battle for the last bullpen spot is heating up, and the loser probably won’t remain a Tiger. Gary Knotts and Franklyn German are both out of options, and both competing for the last spot on the pitching staff. Trammell has said several times he only plans on keeping 11 pitchers. With the 5 guys in the rotation set, and Urbina/Pericval/Farnsworth/Walker/Rodney (if healthy) already slotted for relief there is only one spot left. Chances are neither would clear waivers so the Tigers risk losing one of them.
Keep up the good work Bilfer;
If the Tigers do make a trade this spring, what are we looking for? My heart wants them to get and asset to help the team contend this year but my brain tells me they desparatly need prospects. Ive noticed the tigers media talking about how great German is, I think this is because he is gonna make the team after we trade Urbina. Could we possibly aquire an ace for Maroth, Ugie, and White? I don’t know what team would trade an ace but that would be sweet.
There are some decent catchers in that group. The overall low CS percentages posted by this group makes me think of the runners they face. The catchers as a whole are exposed to the same runners in the AL. While there are some decent, capable runners in this league (Crawford, Ichiro, Figgins, etc) the bulk are situational runners (Guererro, Soriano, ARod, Hunter, etc). Does it reduce the overall CS numbers if you are less sure that a runner will try to take a base? I.E. our guy Sanchez steals alot of bases, but gets caught alot, too. I’d like to see the numbers for NL catchers who have a great deal more burners to deal with – Pierre, Roberts, Abreu, Furcal, (formerly) Pods, Castillo, Patterson, etc. My guess is the CS%s are higher just becuase they expect to see the run more often. Just a guess….
I just thought of something. Preston Wilson has been rumored to be on the block so how about this, send Urbina to Chicago Send Sanchez to Colorado Cubs send prospect(s) to Colorado and the Tigs recieve Preston Wilson. Now thats a scary linup.
Yowzers, what’s up with Oakland’s PCS? Was that all Big Three?
Chris, I think its safe to say the large majority of base stealing attempts are situational no matter who the base runner is. Thus, most of the time the pitcher, catcher, infielders, and manager all have a pretty good idea when a guy is trying to swipe a base, and they plan accordingly.
Now, there are certainly speed merchants that may have the so-called “green light,” and as such may run at will regardless of the situation (or in the case of Sanchez, disregarding the terrible odds against their success). But, as above, I believe its safe to assume these are not Mystery Men, so in turn they probably create more base-stealing situations than might normally exist in the book of baseball logic.
This is all conjecture, though. Base stealing is what it is, and Pudge’s CS numbers are what they are. His CS% is declining fairly rapidly, he’s apparently no better against the run now than a number of AL catchers, and he’s 33 years old. Like I said in the last thread, let’s hope the AL doesn’t catch on anytime soon.
Joe – With all due respect, consider first why Preston Wilson would be on the trading block, then ask yourself how much sense it makes to weaken whatever semblance of a passable bullpen the Tigers may have in order to obtain Preston Wilson.
BFiM-As for Oakland’s big PCS contributors: Mulder had 8, Redman had 7, and Zito had 5. (I know that’s more than 17, but there were 5 PCS while Adam Melheuse was catching also).
Very nice little research job here bilfer, quite impressive. Let’s all hope the 22 (!) pounds pudge dropped will give him his edge back on the defensive side.
No Hudson, hm? Interesting. I wonder if any of the Tigs pitchers are more likely to catch a man on base. Doubt it, but it would be interesting if one of them really showed some speed of perception and arm in that area this year.
Aaaargh season must start before I die of anticipation.
Good point Jason, im begining to want Urbina to stay. A healthy worry free Urbina could set up a Unhittable 8-9 combination. And with Walker and Farnsworth for the seventh, all our starters would need is to pitch 6 quality innings. If memory serves me correct that is something Mike Maroth does well.
Just to toss this idea around however, is there any team with an ace that might be interested in a deal that included Maroth, Urbina, and White? I really like having those guys on the team but having a dominating Ace is something that would go a long way with this team.
I don’t think that Urbina makes or breaks our bullpen. He definitely bolsters it, but the dude wasn’t exactly at a “shut em down” level last year. He’d invariably come out in the 9th innning, let one or two guys on and then squeak his way out and get the save. His walks per 9 were up from peak years and his stikeout rate is down. He also posted the highest ERA of his career at 4.50. Not exactly an ideal mark for a closer. It’s a contract year and he’s feeling relieved because his mom is okay, so maybe he has a big year. But I have a feeling that provided he comes back healthy, Rodney can put up comparable numbers and step into a setup roll.
I don’t think the Preston deal is a possiblity but if we could deal Urbina for a good CF, we should do it. The negative effects to our bullpen would be outweighed by a vastly improved outfield.
I don’t think it can be understated how bad the Tigers starters were at holding the runners last year. I recall several times when the runner was practically at second base when the Pudge caught the ball and Bonderman was throwing. Johnson was nearly as bad. Maroth has probably the worst pick-off moves for a lefty that I’ve ever seen.
Obviously, Pudge wasn’t his old self behind the plate last year, but his pitchers rarely helped him out.
More on the Tigers staff holding runners. The Tigers ran with three righties for most of the year. I’m not sure who the 3rd lefty Bilfer refers to is. I assume Ledezma–who only started 8 games towards the end of the season. Here’s what scouting reports from STATS Inc. has to say about last seasons starters.
Bonderman is a good athlete who fields his position well. He pays attention to runners and is quick to the plate. His pickoff move is average, however, and baserunners can get a good jump on his delivery
Johnson is poor athlete. He does not move well on the mound, and does not help himself out at all with the glove. He is a catcher’s nightmare because he is slow to the plate and not athletic enough to display a quick, effective pickoff move.
Knotts has three pitches that are at least average for the major league level. His fastball is consistently at 92-93 MPH. He has a good curveball in terms of depth and bite and a respectable changeup. The key for Knotts is locating his fastball. If he does that, he starts dropping his curveball and changeup on hitters late in the count and becomes effective. Knotts is slow to the plate and does not have a good pickoff move. He has slow reactions as a fielder.
Maroth moves well around the mound and is surehanded. He is overall a good fielder. He takes advantage of being lefthanded with a good pickoff move to first.
Robertson hurt himself defensively last season. He does not move well on the mound, has poor hands and his concentration tends to wane. In just 34 chances, he made five errors. He also needs to do a better job of holding runners.
Pretty freaking bleak. Gammons went nuts last year talking about how bad this rotation was at holding runners.
Cripes, thanks for the info, Joey. Looked at like that, it’s a miracle Pudge picks anyone off at all, let alone stil managed to put up the numbers that he did.
Great leg work, Joey. It still doesn’t change the fact that last year was the third year in a row in which the numbers we are looking at declined for Pudge.
Those scouting reports may be more pertinent if last year was the first year of his decline, or if it represented the first year he was below some threshold (oh, say, like 40%). If that was the case they could be called an aberration.
But that wasn’t the case, and unless someone wants to try stringing out this “Its the pitchers, not Pudge” argument to include also the 2003 Marlins staff and the 2002 Rangers staff, then be my guest. But you’d be barking up a tree that stands somewhere out in the distant reaches of the Logic Woods, in which case I’ll go ahead and notify the authorities.
Pudge is still a danged fine defensive catcher. The original point was not that he had devolved into a scrub, just that the 2005 version won’t be the Pudge of the 90’s, due to the irreversible effects of advancing age which seem to be showing up in a 3-year decline in the percentage of runners he throws out.
Heck, the scouting reports noted above only make that more painful. They dont explain it away.
Yo dude. No doubt. As I acknowledged in my first response to you, the 3 year decline is impossible to ignore. No need to trip and start impugning my ability to think critically.
However since you did, let me point out that the Rangers staff of two years ago was one of the worst things to ever take a mound and the marlins staff of ’03 was incredibly young. Dig up some information on how those rotations held runners if you’re going to dismiss out of hand an idea that clearly several people find credible.
Pudge was still ranked second in the league at tossing out runners with a rotation that was horrible at holding runners. Do you know what his percentage might have been if this wasn’t the case? Higher maybe? I don’t know and neither to you, but the point of participating in forums such as this is to discuss ridiculously esoteric baseball situations from several different angles. Try not to get salty.
And I’m honestly curious–not picking a fight–how the scouting reports make painfully obvious Pudges decline?
The pitchers dont make it painfully obvious; they make the decline more painful. That is to say, if Pudge is already in obvious decline, the fact that he has to deal with a staff that is challenged as far as holding runners only heaps more pain onto the situation. Like going from bad to worse.
Joey – no harm intended, bro. Just having fun with metaphors.