No analysis today. Just some commentary and links to interesting stuff…
1. The running theme that is going to irritate me the most this spring is the continuing implication that while Alex Sanchez struggles defensively, he is still the Tigers best option in centerfield. Lynn Henning (who is probably my favorite local writer) had this dead-on commentary regarding the Tigers’ outfield overcrowding in Sunday’s column:
But then Henning followed it up with this:
And yes, good center fielders are hard to come by, but the statement implies that the Tigers are without other options. If you look at the total contribution, of offense (including baserunning), and defense the Tigers could use Monroe, Higginson, or even Logan without missing a beat (and some could argue Granderson as well). It’s true that Monroe and Higginson can’t cover the ground that Sanchez can in center, but they would be at least as effective.
Okay, that’s my last “Sanchez shouldn’t be playing centerfield” post of the month.
2. Former all-baseball.com brothers Rich Lederer and Bryan Smith teamed up to create a new site BaseballAnalysts.com. Over the weekend they chatted with Aaron Gleeman, and Brian previewing the AL Central. While the Twins were the consensus pick to win it, Brian was bold and took the Tigers to finish second. He of course was alone on this panel as the rest took them to finish 3rd or 4th. I don’t know if I’m quite there with you yet Brian, but it certainly isn’t crazy. I think the Tigers/Indians/White Sox will all be in a close race for 2nd.
3. Speaking of Brian, he and Blade wrapped up their battle of Sparky’s behemonths -the 1975 Reds versus the 1984 Tigers. Brian turned to the closer, 1984 MVP and Cy Young winner Willie Hernandez to clinch the win for the Tigers.
4. Pat Caputo’s column yesterday detailed why the Tigers would be foolish to trade Urbina.
What I liked best about Pat’s column is that he didn’t site the 21 of 24 in save opportunities, because Saves can be so misleading. In 17 of Urbina’s 21 saves, he wasn’t coming in to face the tying run and he pitched an inning or less(once again from the Bill James Handbook – honestly I get no commission). By the same token, as Studes at the Hardball Times points out today, the Tigers did use Urbina in high leverage situations. Urbina led major league closers by appearing in 9 games in the 9th inning with the score tied. So while the save statistic overstates Urbina’s effectiveness, there is other data that shows how important a reliever he continues to be.
5. The Tigers and Fox Sports announced their broadcast schedule today. FSN will be showing 110 games, which is most ever. A deal hasn’t been worked out yet with UPN, but from what I heard it will most likely be in the neighborhood of 20 games.
“Okay, that’s my last ‘Sanchez shouldn’t be playing centerfield’ post of the month.
Don’t make promises you can’t keep Billfer 🙂 Of course, tomorrow is a new month …
true higgy or monroe don’t run as fast as sanchez, but they are much better outfielders and get much better jumps, plus they have much better arms. sanchez may be a fast runner, but it does little good when you consider that he’s simply not a very good player in general.
Sanchez still “looks like” a CF and lead-off hitter. The fact that he isn’t worth a darn at either seems to be largely irrelevant to their thinking. Logan would be worse offensively (.230 or .240 with no power and no walks), but at least he would catch the ball. I’d let Monroe and Higginson platoon until Granderson is ready. Give Sanchez away to someone still enamoured of his “tools.” In fairness to Sanchez, they gave up nothing to get him, they aren’t paying him much and he is arguably more useful than Gene Kingsale. Not that it says much. The notion that they will “teach” a 28 year old player to forget everything he knows and start over learning how to play CF, well, that’s rich. Sanchez must be a real cementhead; everbody has been trying to reach him for years now. The word is uncoachable.
Urbina is a pretty good pitcher. They shouldn’t give him away. Although a real CF or a 3B would be nice.
Yeah, I don’t see any reason to lay off the Sanchez is Horrible and Shouldn’t Play posts.
I’m with you Tim–given the new lineup, I’d give-up Sanchez’s “offense” in favor of some solid defense at a critical position.
Lynn Henning as best baseball writer in Detroit Bilfer? I don’t know. I was raised a Free Press guy.
I do miss Joe Falls though.
I don’t think one can so easily toss off Urbina’s propensity to put runners on base. Certainly not with the explanation that he does it by design. Good closers(and setup men) don’t walk batters.
I agree that our bullpen is better with the guy, but I still contend that trading him away would be far from catastrophic.
The Free Press has been reporting that Cluck and company are pretty fired up about the way Rodney’s been throwing.
I would not be opposed to trading Urbina for major league-ready arms in return. I just dont like weakening one trouble spot (bullpen) to address another percieved trouble spot (centerfield, third base).
The Tigers don’t absolutely have to have Mike Cameron. They could put Higgy in center and get about the same amount of overall offensive production, albeit with less defense. But when the alternative is Alex Sanchez, and you’re already on the hook for $8M with Higgy, then there’s no harm in squeezing one more year out of the malcontent.
In a way, if you add Cameron at the $4M-and-change then you end up paying $12M for a centerfielder this season – his salary plus Higgy’s, whether Higgyu is eventually released or not.
Dear billfer, gotta say that I had no problem finding you blog. After my reformat and new OS exploring the web has been great with cable/dsl. Unfortunatly, I lost all my favorite bookmarks. I did a search on yapoo for tiger blogs and yours was the no. 1 result. I enjoyed reading your comments last season and look forward to your delightful insight this year. Oh, and by the way, if you need any company for opening day, let me know – hint hint nudge nudge. Dad has never been to an opening day game in his life. Other than you, he is the biggest Tiger fan I know. Anyway, have fun, ttyl . . .
Jason I think that the difference offensively between Cameron and Higgy is pretty substantial. I’m too tired to plug numbers in here, but compare their last three seasons. Cameron leads in every offensive category except OBP and BA Just look at their OPS over that time. Higgy’s average OPS 730 Cameron’s average OPS 785. Cameron is too much of a hacker for my taste, but there’s no denying the guy’s been a considerably more productive hitter than Higgy over the last three years. Add in his huge advantage in SB totals and I we’re looking at a guy who’s quite a bit better offensively.
And the difference in CF would be tremendous. Cameron is still one of the best in the game.
We don’t need Cameron, but I think he’d be a pretty big addition. In the end it seems we disagree on the status of our pen. I just don’t see it being as big a weakness as you do. We’ve added Farnsworth and Percival and Rodney is coming back. I think those three guys are going to make a hell of a difference this year.
I could be horribly wrong. I hope not because nothing is worse than watching a team that can’t ever hold a lead.
I would not say you are “horribly wrong”. Perhaps I am being too conservative in my evaluation of the current pen, but it seems to me that Percival, Farnsworth, Walker, and maybe-he-will-put-it-together Rodney is still not enough. Urbina is no world beater, but he is as good (if not better) than any of those mentioned, including Percival. So why rush to deal him if the alternative is Steve Colyer?
As for Higgy and Cameron, 55 points of OPS is really not a tremendous gap considering Cameron’s advantage has been almost entirely in his higher slugging percentage. I’d have to consider also that the last three years represent the likely peak of Cameron’s power numbers. Higgy has the advantage in OBP, the skill that is easier to maintain as the player ages, so I think it would basically be a wash moving forward.
Defensively Cameron is superior, but again, at 32 he’s not likely to be such an outstanding centerfielder that his contributions are a must-have if its between him and Higgy.
Of course, in the real world, where Alex Freakin Sanchez is the Opening Day centerfielder, then yes, I’d be more persuaded towards obtaining Cameron on both counts. But when we already owe Higgy $8M whether he plays in Detroit or Tampa, adding Cameron would mean we’d be paying what amounts to $12M for a centerfielder. I dont think that’s worth it.