Does Alan Trammell utilize small ball too much? What about his bullpen use and subsitution patterns. His in-game decision making over his first two years has been a source of frequent criticism on this site as well as others. However, what are the right tactics and how does he stack up against his peers?
With the help of the The Bill James Handbook: 2005
One of the first things that people point to is that the Tigers under-performed their pythagorean record each of the last two years. Last year some may be attributed to a porous bullpen and defense, while 2003 maybe attributed to an inferior and inexperienced talent base all around.
The lack of talent in 2003 caused Trammell to employ whatever strategies at his disposal. A lack of offensive pop led to a league leading 92 sacrifice bunt attempts and 161 stolen base attempts which was third highest in the league. For better or for worse Trammell’s reputation as a small ball manager was born.
In 2004 the Tigers’ received an infusion of talent, and the result was a pretty solid offense. With hitters that could actually get on base consistently, Trammell was able to reduce his reliance on the sacrifice. He reduced his sacrifice attempts by a third down to 62. That still ranked as the 4th most in the AL, but at least he’s in the ballpark of the rest of the league now.
He also reduced his stolen base attempts by 30 to 136 which ranked 7th in the AL. Unfortunately that was probably still too often as they were 4th worst in their success rate trailing only KC, Chicago, and Cleveland (more on this later). What isn’t captured is how many of the Tigers’ caught stealings were the result of failed hit and runs. From watching, it seemed that the Tigers ran into outs with missed signs way more than I’d care for, but I can’t really say conclusively without data.
So it seems that Tram has small ball leanings, but a lot of the perception was cultivated when he was managing a team devoid of talent. What’s interesting is that he is one of the lesser small ballers in the AL Central. The table below shows where the AL Central managers rank within the American League.
Manager SBA SB% SacA Sac
Gardenhire 3 3 3 5
Wedge 4 12 6 6
Guillen 8 13 1 1
Trammell 7 11 4 3
Pena 10 14 6 8
Over the last few years the Twins have consistently outperformed their pythagorean projection while utiliizing small ball. On the other hand the Tigers have underperformed while using small ball. The big difference is the execution of the strategy. While the Twins ran quite a bit last year, they seperated themselves from the rest of the division by actually being successful. Once Ozzie Guillen fields his new speed and defense team it wouldn’t surprise me if he leads the league in SBA’s. Conversely, other teams were more successful than the Twins in converting sacrifice attempts, but seemed to fare worse overall. This makes sense because if you can successfully move the runner without giving up an out you’ll be ahead of the guys willing to concede the out.
I’m not trying to draw the conclusion that the Twins win because they steal bases well, or that Gardenhire is necessarily better than his Central counterparts. It is just an interesting look at what strategies have had success, albeit within in a very small sample.
Also, while Trammell is still probably a small ball manager, his reputation was largely developed during a season in which there were extenuating circumstances. His utilization of these strategies seeemed to decrease as he spent more time on the bench.
Other Stuff-
-On a related note, Trammell hardly used pitch outs last year. He let Pudge’s reputation deter the opponents running game. He only called 8 pitch outs last year, down from 28 in 2003. Only 59 runners tried to steal on Pudge, the fewest among full time catchers in the AL. Yet another way in that Pudge helped the Tigers. He helped eliminate the run game, and prevented his pitchers from having to waste pitches.
-I highly recommend picking up a copy of the 2005 Bill James Handbook. In the month I’ve had mine I’ve already worn the thing out and it has about a dozen bookmarks. It has a wealth of interesting stuff that you just won’t find anywhere else.
-If you enjoy women talking about sports make sure and read BatGirl and Blue Cats and Red Sox. Batgirl and her Batlings follow the ups and downs of the Twins from a completely subjective point of view. She leaves out the stats and makes baseball fun. Blue Cats and Red Sox has the travails of a ‘Boston Fan in Michigan’ as she celebrates her Red Sox and Patriots while mourning our Detroit kitties – and she gets points for being a UM student as well.
Just out of curiosity, how did Inge factor at center?
What if half way thru the season our roster was this?
Vina 2b
Guillen SS
I Rod C
Ordonez RF
Young DH
Monroe LF
Pena 1b
Inge CF
Infante 3b
Obviously Vina isn’t healthy but if he can come back at the allstar break i like that lineup.
Wait, i just read that Vina’s carreer is over which got me thinking again. And i might be on to something here:
Infante 2b
Guillen SS
I Rod C
Ordonez RF
Young 3B
Monroe LF
White DH
Pena 1b
Inge CF
Now that is a lineup with some pop. Only problem is Young is just as bad at third as Sanchez is at center.
Great observation about ’03, Billfer. You never get a second chance to make a first impression, but I will make a point to lay off Tram as regards the small ball stuff. The numbers indicate that Tram manages according to the team he is given, which is certainly preferrable to being a hard-liner in either direction.
As for his Captain Hook Junior routine … well, we’ll see what he does with this year’s pen, I suppose.
As for Pudge, we just have to hope the secret doesn’t finally get out – teams are scared of him, but he aint what he used to be. Not even close. Last season was his lowest CS% of his career and marked the third year he has declined in that category. And after just one season in his first 11 of throwing out at least 40% of baserunners, he’s now had three in a row.
I think pudge’s cs% is a bit misleading as his reputation deters (usually) managers from trying to steal on him with anything less than an excellent base stealer. If you’re only being run on by the best you’re precentage is bound to take a dive.
Maybe so, but Pudge didn’t just start getting that kind of respect last season, or the season before that.
2004 59 SB Att, 32.2% CS
2003 60, 33.3%
2002 41, 36.6%
2001 58, 60.3%
2000 39, 48.7%
From 1991-1999, he threw out 50.1% of the 772 would-be base stealers. Interestingly, he averaged 86 attempts per season during that time.
On the other hand, it would be difficult to prove if Pudge is in fact being picked on exclusively by the AL’s elite base stealers. Check this list of AL catchers in 2004:
Att, Pct
Blanco 61, 49.2
Olivo 49, 34.7
Barajas 64, 34.4
Hall 67, 34.3
Wilson 66, 33.3
Rodriguez 59, 32.2
Molina 69, 26.1
(The other 6 regular AL catchers had at least 83 attempts, and five had worse percentages than Pudge.)
He’s not the Pudge of old, at least not in the sense that a manager has a good reason to be any more afraid of his arm than a number of other catchers. By that list Pudge looks like he was as much a deterrent as Henry Blanco, who threw out significantly more runners, and Rod Barajas, with whom Pudge looked about even.
I think its just as likely his percentage is taking a dive because of his advancing age and declining skills, and sooner than later the AL will catch on.
Maybe so, but Pudge didn’t just start getting that kind of respect last season, or the season before that.
2004 59 SB Att, 32.2% CS
2003 60, 33.3%
2002 41, 36.6%
2001 58, 60.3%
2000 39, 48.7%
From 1991-1999, he threw out 50.1% of the 772 would-be base stealers. Interestingly, he averaged 86 attempts per season during that time.
On the other hand, it would be difficult to prove if Pudge is in fact being picked on exclusively by the AL’s elite base stealers. Check this list of AL catchers in 2004:
Att, Pct
Blanco 61, 49.2
Olivo 49, 34.7
Barajas 64, 34.4
Hall 67, 34.3
Wilson 66, 33.3
Rodriguez 59, 32.2
Molina 69, 26.1
(The other 6 regular AL catchers had at least 83 attempts, and five had worse percentages than Pudge.)
He’s not the Pudge of old, at least not in the sense that a manager has a good reason to be any more afraid of his arm than a number of other catchers. By that list Pudge looks like he was as much a deterrent as Henry Blanco, who threw out significantly more runners, and Rod Barajas, with whom Pudge looked about even.
I think its just as likely his percentage is taking a dive because of his advancing age and declining skills, and sooner than later the AL will catch on.
sorry for the double post – little help, Billfer?
Thanks for the shout-out, Billfer.
I was actually arguing about this with one of my friends yesterday– I ended up claiming that you almost can’t count Tram’s prediliction for the smallball in ’03, because at some point he probably just started doing whatever the hell he could to try and generate some momentum. My friend claimed that a manager who liked smallball less would have still stayed away from it.
I vote we just call ’03 The Great Lost Statistical Season and disregard most numbers that came out of there. Maybe it would have the added bonus of letting us forget about it sooner :/
test
Hey Jason…shhh, don’t let the twins know about Pudge
Bilfer excelent work on the small ball. Ok, so we have pointed out that tram doesn’t run as much as I thought he did. But they did have the worst Stolen base percentage. I do not like throwing away outs, not with the lineup that we have.
So the central loves small ball, thats fine with me. But can the new twins play that small ball just as effectively? We shall see.
I agree with tossing ’03 out the window. Rookie manager–horrible, horrible team. I remember thinking that Tram probably blew a number of games that year–I think a solid veteran manager wouldn’t have approached the record for losses–but you know, he was learning on the job with the worst team imaginable. He was trying whatever he could to win some games and add a little excitement.
I saw vast improvement with how he handled games last year, and I think we’ll see similar strides made this year as well. I think he’s going to be good.
Now as for Pudge’s arm…
Jason I think you’re being a bit unfair. Everyone knows that the Tigs pitching staff is the worst in the bigs at holding runners on. I don’t care if you’re packing a freakin howitzer for a right arm–throwing out Twins baserunners who are half-way to second before the ball leaves the pitchers hand isn’t a simple task.
I do note the decline your number show over the last few years–even before he was a Tiger. I must admit that’s a bit disturbing.
However I just read the Free Press article about Pudge dropping about 15 pounds in the offseason. He’s hoping it will improve his defense and extend his career. Let’s hope this was dude consciously trying to get more athletic behind the plate and not the results of the steroids wearing off!