A few weeks back, I started looking at the Tigers’ defense through the work of David Pinto’s Probalistic Model of Range. Now that there seems to be a break in Tiger trades and signings, it is time to pick up where we left off. Baseball Musings has now published results for all the positions.
Here is a look at the Tigers’ right field situation last year:
BIP Acutal Outs Pred. Outs Outs per Season
Monroe 1242 110 103.79 22.5
Higginson 3035 224 216.42 11.3
Both Craig Monroe and Bobby Higginson were above average fielders according to PMR last year, and both saved significant outs above expected. The “Outs per Season” is the number of outs saved (positive) or cost (negative) based on 4500 BIP. Magglio Ordonez didn’t have the 1000 BIP to qualify, so we don’t know how he holds up in comparison. By reputation however, he is average to slightly below average. This may prove to be significant when we take a look at what might be happening in centerfield.
BIP Acutal Outs Pred. Outs Outs per Season
Logan 1179 117 119.19 -8.3
Sanchez 2082 178 200.73 -49.2
Nook Logan in limited time was essentially an average centerfielder (for 2004 the centerfielders as a group underperformed expectations, Logan was about typical). Sanchez on the other hand was one of the worst centerfielders in terms of range in the Majors. When you take into account that PMR only measures range, and doesn’t factor in arm stregnth or accuracy, Sanchez has to be one of the worst fielders in all baseball. Higginson and Monroe despite only having average speed managed to get to more than their share of balls, and they combine range with strong arms. If Ordonez has the range that is rumored, things could get scary on the right side of the outfield.
Over in left field…
BIP Acutal Outs Pred. Outs Outs per Season
Monroe 1369 102 99.95 6.8
White 1917 126 136.17 -23.9
Craig Monroe looks to be a pretty solid fielder in left field as well as right field. Meanwhile, Rondell White ranks near the bottom of the American League.
What PMR is telling us about the Tigers outfield next season, is that an outfield of Rondell White, Alex Sanchez, and Magglio Ordonez could lead to a ton of missed plays. It also bolsters the case for hanging onto Bobby Higginson and finding more playing time for Craig Monroe. Further, it shows that even exceptional speed doesn’t compensate for poor instincts or positioning.
Given that Ordonez will be playing right (his knee permitting), the Tigers’ best outfield configuration may be Craig Monroe in left with Higginson in center. Higginson’s above average range in right probably wouldn’t translate to above average range in center, but he should at least be an improvement over Alex Sanchez (especially when you factor in arms). Higginson and Sanchez post comparable slugging percentages, which is sad but true. However, Higginson gets on base at a better rate than Sanchez, and is less likely to get thrown out once he’s on.
To access all the data, or for more information on PMR check out these links and the ensuing discussions:
Leftfielders
Centerfielders
Rightfielders
PMR Explained for 2004
Creation of PMR
Damn – a compelling case for playing Higginson regularly.
Aargh. Don’t much like the thought of regularly seeing Higgy in center. Can’t we get some unexpected whiz kid centerfielder from the minors this year? Could someone make this happen? 🙁
Great analysis. This is what I love to see. I to have been really concerned about the outfield defense, we have 2 starting pitchers who are able to miss bats, Bonderman and Johnson (occaisonally), and the bullpen shouldn’t be hurt to much by the outfield defense. But it can shatter a young pitching staff when routine balls get misplayed. I’m praying we can turn Urbina and another into a decent defensive center fielder.
This is the perfect website for me. Where else in the world will i find such in debth coverage of the tigers centerfield. For some reason i know everything there is to know about the yankees and redsox, yet nothing about my favorite team. It seems to me like you know exactly what you are talking about but how can a tiger fan still support Bobby so devoutly? Im impressed and i like your argument. I would have liked to see how the offense would be affected too. Infante would be moved up to lead off presumably, he got on base 8 points less than Sanchez, but saw a greater amount of pitches. Replacing Higgenson with Sanchez is a net OPS increase of 20, which is nice. The only downside is that Sanchez is a threat to steal basses, however i could do without his 13 pickoffs…which leads me to another sabermetrically influenced question, do the tigers steal too much or is it just me?
Keep up the good work from a Tiger fan away from home
I would say “It’s not just you, Joe,” because I too feel Tram tries a little too much small ball.
Upon further review, though, we find the Tigers were right in the middle of the pack in the AL last season in steal attempts (136). It must be the fact that the Tigers success rate (63.2%) ranked 11th that gives the overall feeling Tram should try it even less – especialy with Sanchez.
As for Higgy, even with his relatively decent OBP last season (made decent only because of the rest of the team’s woes) I’d still like to see him hit down in the order.
Jason im with you.
Given Sanchez’s ineptatude in Center and his terrible baserunning(which is so upsetting because of his amazing speed) our best line up might be this;
Infante 2b
Guillen SS
I Rod C
Ordonez RF
Young DH
Monroe RF
Pena 1B
Inge 3B
Higginson CF
Comments questions thoughts?
KS:
There’s no way we can move UUU until his family situation is sorted out. Maybe Rondell? I’d rather have Ugueth back in our pen the White/Higgy taking up bench space. As a Tiger fan in Canada (not Windsor or London, either) I second Joe’s comment. I hear way to much about the Jays, and even BAseball Primer rarely has Tigers threads. Great work on the OF Defense – I thought Farnsworth would be helped keeping it the park – he won’t if everything drops in…
Sorry for the long post. Our Ps and Cs report today!!!
I like that lineup, Joe. Unfortunately, I doubt anyone will be able to sell Tram on a) putting Higgy in center and benching Sanchez, b) batting Sanchez anywhere other than leadoff, and c) batting Higgy any lower than third.
Tram loves his speedy centerfielder at the top of the order and in centerfield. He also loves his veteran Higgy.
Prove me wrong, Tram.
More on Sanchez at centerfield. I was thinking about it and there must be something wrong about that Sanchez stat(-49 Outs per season). I would like to see his home and road stats to verify. Perhaps they have not accurately factored in Comerica Park’s vast outfield.
Jason, that has been the thing that’s always worried me about Tram, his fascination with small ball. It’s unfathomable how many innings he’s run the Tigers out of. As far as Sanchez, didn’t we already have BL Hunter out there, who at least brought defense to the table. Hopefully they’ve seen something they like in Granderson and are using Sanchez as a stop-gap until June when they can bring Granderson up.
KS
Joe and KS, welcome to the site. I hope you guys keep visiting and I love the discussion going on here. I also like your lineup Joe, like Jason I’m doubtful it would get implemented but it has a nice balance of left-right-left.
As for the -49 outs, those are the stats that Pinto generated. However, I want to clear up something about how PMR works. David looked at play by play data for the last 3 years and looked at the type of hit (grounder, fly, line, etc), the direction of the hit, the ball park, how hard the ball was hit, and the handedness of the batter and pitcher. Based on the data and all those parameters for 2001-2004 he calculated the probabilty that a given ball would be turned into an out. He then based this model against what actually happened in 2004 for each ball in play while said fielder was at his position. Because the model was based on 3 years and applied against the recent year, it isn’t necessary that the average player is zeroed out. For the case of centerfielders, as a group they underperformed. The “average” centerfielder last year fielded 11.5 fewer outs than what the model would expect. So Nook is actually a tad above average, and Sanchez is “only” 37 outs below average.
The other thing to note is that this doesn’t indicate that Sanchez allowed 37 hits more than he should have. It indicates that he successfully fielded 37 fewer balls than expected. It is possible that he gave ground to his corner outfielders and they converted some of Sanchez’s expected outs. The same could be true of shallow pop ups that Guillen was fielding that a typical centerfielder would take.
I hope that all made sense. If you have further questions, let me know or check out David’s work at baseballmusings.com.
A descent case is made for Higgy in CF. In the end however, what it really points to is how horrible our outfield is and the dire straights this team finds itself in defensively.
Higgy really isn’t an answer. He’s a perhaps less crappy alternative. My pop always used to tell me that in life one should leave himself as many options as possible. This certainly holds in Baseball as well–and the Tigs have left themselves with zero working options with the OF.
I’m thinking we should make a move for Cameron. The dude represents yet another horrible, horrible Mets contract (does anyone else realize that NY is the most god awful sports town in the world?) but he’s only got one more year left on it. Considering the Maggs insanity, we might as well go all the way and really try to put something together.
I cant agree with all the Cameron (and Floyd) talk that’s been floating around Motown message boards this winter. Older and more expensive is not the way to go, particularly after the oversized Ordonez contract.
Find another Craig Monroe, preferrably within the organization.
Joey,
I’m with you on Cameron has a solution for this year. Hopefully then Granderson can fill the role full-time thereafter, but pitchers can have the confidence that if the ball’s hit to the outfield in Cameron’s direction the play will be made. He’s still got a little pop in his bat, definitely a more productive offensive player than Sanchez.
KS
Exactly KS. We’ve got Granderson coming up shortly. Some think he may make the squad this year, but even if he does, from what I’ve read the dude doesn’t have the greatest fielding skills. Average speed, range, and arm–not exactly the makeup of a guy you want patrolling the vast exapanses of CoPa.
Still assuming that the kid can fill void in CF at some point, what’s the point in rushing. We could add Cameron for two years–he’s only 32, it’s not like this cat is a step from needing a walker–and have one of the top-five defensive centerfielders taking care of business in grand fashion. Then at age 34 he moves on and we will have hopefully found someone else to man the position for years to come.
This is what most blows my mind about the Tigers the last five years. We have what maybe the most challenging CF in the bigs, and we’ve been completely unable or unwilling to find someone to man it. It’s ridiculous. I can’t think of a more important position in that park–and think how many games you’ve watched go down the toilet because whatever jackass we’ve had out there at any given time isn’t close to being up to the challenge. If Sanchez is out there again this year, you can forget about the goddamn division title.
Makes you truly appreciate the days of Chet Lemon, heck even Gary Pettis on his last legs as a Tiger centerfielder puts these other guys to shame. With the amount of hitting now in the lineup, I’m willing to sacrifice a bit of offense to get a Pettis style centerfielder who’s a good baserunner, and an outstanding centerfielder. These aren’t great wishes I don’t think. Everyone wants a Beltran obviously, but let’s help the pitching staff out for a change.
KS