Wow – I didn’t expect this to happen. The Tigers have released centerfielder Alex Sanchez. I could go into detail about why I like this move, but if you’ve been reading for the last month or so you know my feelings about Sanchez.

This of course creates two voids. The first is the leadoff spot. Trammell loves speedy centerfielders at the top of the order. However, the Tigers have only Nook Logan that fits that prototype and his bat can’t carry him to the top of the order. I’d imagine that Higginson, Inge, Infante, and Carlos Guillen will all get a look leading off.

The second void of course is in centerfield. Nook Logan is best suited to play out there. However, in an effort to get bigger bats in the lineup, Craig Monroe could be passable in center. The other options the Tigers have are DeWayne Wise, Alexis Gomez, and top prospect Curtis Granderson.

There is a financial upshot as well. By releasing Sanchez before Friday, the Tigers only owe him $222,500 in termination pay. If they had released him Friday or later they would have been on the hook for $333,800 of his $1.35 million in salary.

I’ll have more on this later tonight.

With only a couple of weeks until the start of the regular season, it is time to starting doing some previews. I’m going to start this year with the starting rotation for the simple reason that it is the most resolved. There are still question marks regarding outfield configuration (which effects the offense) as well as how to cram 8 pitchers into 6 bullpen slots. However, barring injury, we know that Jason Johnson, Jeremy Bonderman, Mike Maroth, Nate Robertson, and Wilfredo Ledezma will be in the starting rotation.

Similar to last year, I’ll be projecting the total runs scored/runs allowed for the team, and then using the pythagorean theorem to guess a won-loss record. These projections of course will be nothing more than guesses based on past data and gut instinct. However, by tying it all together with a formula at the end I get to present it with a false sense of validity.

Now on to the rotation…

The review before the preview
The one thing you could say about the starting rotation last year is that they were healthy. Johnson, Maroth, Bonderman, and Robertson made 33, 33, 32, 32 starts respectively. This was probably partly due to luck, and partly due to Trammell and Cluck’s vigilant watch of pitch counts. Only two times last year did a starter exceed 120 pitches.

As you may remember, Robertson was only a starter candidate breaking camp last year. However, some early season success earned him the gig full time. The final spot in the rotation was Nate Cornejo’s for 5 starts before a torn labrum ended his season. Gary Knotts occupied Cornejo’s spot for 19 starts before giving way to Wil Ledezma mid season.

Here’s how the starters fared last year:

As a group the starters generally made it through six innings. Maroth consistently pitched into the seventh, while Ledezma was a little bit on the lighter side (due more to protecting his arm than anything else). The starters pitched 70% of the team’s innings, which is pretty much in line with the rest of the league (70.7%). And while their starters ERA ranked 9th in the AL, they were 7th in K/9, 5th in K/BB, 5th in OPS against, and 6th in WHIP. None of the numbers are stellar, but the group probably deserved more than the 53 wins they earned. The starters were clearly hurt by a porous defense and lackluster bullpen.

Now it’s time to look forward…
Jeremy Bonderman
Aside from the general health of most of the team, Bonderman’s continued development is the key to this team contending. At the tender age of 22, Bonderman saw his K/9 jump from 6.0 to 8.2 while his homers decreased. His walk rate rose (3.22 to 3.61 per nine), but due to his bigger jump in strike outs, his K/BB ratio still improved.

Bonderman’s fastball averaged 93.3 MPH last year, yet he relied more on his knee buckling slider to fool hitters. A change-up is still in development to give him a third pitch.

Bonderman finished the season like a Cy Young candidate last year. Unfortunately, it came after some pretty significant struggles that had people wondering whether he should be in the minors, let alone starting. He’s still young, and will still have those struggles. However, I think they’ll be fewer and farther between. I think he’s a good bet to improve on his 4.37 DIPS ERA and he should top 200 innings while flirting with 200 strike outs. Using the 4.37 DIPS as a proxy for the combination of his improvement and the Tigers poor defense that would equate to 97 runs in 200 innings.

Jason Johnson
Johnson was bad last year. He had a couple of spectacular performances, one against Johan Santana and his opening day blanking of the Jays. But the year as a whole was a struggle. Early on he battled blister problems. Later in the year he battled fatigue.

Fatigue is perenially an issue for Johnson. It could be due to his diabetes, his workout regimine, or just something he is susceptible to. Over the last 3 years he is 1-10 in September. When he hits the 91 pitch mark in games his OPS against shoots up to .889. For these reasons, he is never going to be an innings eater.

Despite the 5.13 ERA last year, Johnson improved pretty much every other statistic over the year before. His strike outs were up, walks were down, and homers were down slightly. His OPS against was virtually identical. He also became much more of a groundball pitcher with a 1.68 GB/FB ratio against a career average of 1.15. All of this should have spelled success (or at least decent-ness). It’s for this reason, that I think Johnson’s production will improve this year – simply out of luck. Again using DIPS from last year, and applying it to 190 innings that would equate to 93 runs. An improvement of 19 runs over last year.

Wilfredo Ledezma
Ledezma is the wildcard in the Tigers rotation. He has a ton of potential, he has demonstrated it successfully at AA Erie, and to a lesser extent at the big league level. Last year was the first year in his career he topped 84 innings at any level. His K/BB rate wasn’t particularly impressive last year. However, his ability to fling the ball at 93-94 MPH is. Because of his youth, I expect inconsistency. Because of his limited experience, I’d expect no more than 150 IP. Because Ledezma is such an unknown, I really hope the Tigers can find a way to keep Gary Knotts around as insurance. That being said, I love Ledezma’s upside.

My projection on him is even sketchier than my other ones. I’ll say 150 IP at a dERA of 5.00 which is between league average and replacement level. That would be 83 runs allowed. I really think that Ledezma can pitch better than that. Whether or not he does, and does so this year, remains to be seen.

Mike Maroth
Mike Maroth is probably the best pitcher the Tigers have. He doesn’t have the “stuff” that the others guy do. He has the 4th slowest fastball in the AL (85.5 MPH) and routinely threw pitches less than 80 MPH (846, 4th most in the AL). However, he does the most with what he has, and as a southpaw will be able to turn that into a long career.

Despite boosting his strike out rate 10% to 4.48, Maroth doesn’t strike out enough people. However, he did significanly reduce his home run rate, allowing 9 fewer dingers in 24 more innings. His dERA of 4.75 is slightly below the league average of 4.63. And there’s nothing wrong with trotting out an average left hander for 220 innings a year. If Maroth continues to pitch like an average pitcher that would be 113 runs allowed.

Nate Robertson
While there was lots of talk about the break out years of Guillen, Inge, and Infante, Robertson’s was probably right on par with his offensive teammates. He started the year competing for a spot in the rotation, and ended up pitching 195 innings. His K rate north of 7 is very reassuring. His next task for this year is to whittle down the home run rate. Like Johnson, he struggled in the second half of the season and he was routinely hit hard after the All Star break.

If he can reclaim some of his early season success and sustain it, it is reasonable for him to improve to league average or slightly above. He’s 27, so we may be seeing his best over the next two to three years. I’m going to pencil him in at 210 innings and a 4.55 dERA (marginally above average). The result is 106 runs.

Summary
If the Tigers are going to improve to the point of contention this year, a lot of that improvement will have to come from the development of the starting rotation. The lineup is better, the bulllpen is better. The question is whether or not what we saw last year from these young pitchers is their peak, or if there is still room to grow. Overall, my projections have the staff at a modest improvement with 30 fewer runs in a few more innings pitched.

As for how the rotation stacks up in the Central, I see it probably as 3rd to 4th best with a chance to be second best. The Tigers can’t compete with the top two of the Twins (Santana, Radke) or the White Sox (Garcia, Burehle), and even to a lesser extent the Indians (Sabathia, Millwood). And when it comes to established levels of performance, the Twins and White Sox are certainly better. However the Tigers have youth on their side, and while I don’t think they can match the Twins they could certainly meet or pass the White Sox. Similarly, I see question marks in the Indians rotation as well. If Westbrook can build on last year and Cliff Lee can come through the Indians could have a very respectable rotation as well.

Now the credibility of these projections is certainly questionable. I haven’t factored in injuries at all, and I’ve shown quite a bit of improvement. Also, projecting pitcher ERA’s is probably fruitless anyways. I tried to mitigate that a bit by using dERA. But while dERA may be a decent predictor of subsequent dERA, it really doesn’t tell you a whole lot about how many runs might actually score (see Jason Johnson last year). All that being said, it is still a fun endeavor and I encourage all of you to leave your projections in the comments as well. As for sources, I of course used Jay Jaffe’s DiPS information. The pitch speed information was from the Bill James Handbook. All the splits were from different internet sources (ESPN.com, Baseball Reference, Sports-Wired).

Craig Burley has written a preview of the Tigers for the Batters Box. It is probably the most optimistic outlook I’ve seen from a non-Detroiter, and overall it is a very fair assessment.

And in a freakish coincidence, his preview is 1984 words long.

Meanwhile, over on John Sickels new site, Minor League Ball, John takes a look at Omar Infante.

Sickels as you may remember was the minor league guru for ESPN.com before they signed on with Baseball America. John started this new site last month, and it is fantastic.

As an FYI, I’ll be kicking off my own Tiger preview articles next week. First up will be the starting rotation.

Continuing with some of the more interesting revelations from Lakeland thus far:

The Hacking Higgy

“You have to hit for average. That’s what people get caught up in. There’s only one Oakland A’s team out there that really cares about on-base percentage. It looks better if you’re hitting .300 and getting on base .320, than if you’re hitting .260 and getting on base .360.”

So Bobby is taking his best offensive skill and throwing it away because he’s concerned about people’s perception of his statistics. Higginson is one of the most patient hitters in the game. He only had 53 of his 531 plate appearances last one pitch last year. Despite his average speed, I’ve been endorsing him over Sanchez for leadoff hitter and centerfielder. This just doesn’t make sense to me.

Crash Test DH

“The days of the nice Tigers are gone,” Young said, five stitches to his left ear later. “Milk and cookie teams finish last.

“Sometimes you have to do drastic things like that to send the message that we’re not going to be the team that’s going to be run over. We’re going to do some running over.”

I don’t know if you can really send messages to the league the first week of spring training. I love the aggressiveness, but not the recklessness. Though in the end, it is just Dmitri being Dmitri.

Young catches Bondermania

“It that’s any indication,” he said, “maybe we don’t need to go out and find a No. 1 starter. I mean, if you just chopped his head off, you could have put Curt Schilling or Roger Clemens’ head there. Same kind of body structure, same demeanor on the mound.

“I feel sorry for our opponents.”

Now this is probably more of Dmitri being Dmitri, but Bonderman’s maturation into a top of the rotation starter is one of the things the Tigers need to contend this year. The biggest improvement for the Tigers over last year will have to come from the development of the pitching staff, and we all know that Bonderman has the highest ceiling of that group. Jason Johnson should pitch better than last year. Ledezma has potential, but at his experience level he will struggle with consistency. Mike Maroth will be consistent, but without the dominating performances. The lineup will be better, the bullpen will be better, but none of it will matter if the starters aren’t handing leads to the bullpen.

Some of the more notable quotes of the first two weeks of spring training:

I don’t think, therefore I hit good

“I’m just playing baseball this year,” he said later. “I get to be more of a kid again. Third base is more fun. I’m more relaxed. Catching was the hardest thing I’ve ever done in my life.

“Behind the plate, there is so much to deal with mentally. You have to deal with the whole pitching staff, and communicate with the pitching coach, and study the scouting reports.

“I’m not that smart,” Inge confessed. “The little-est amount of stuff going on in my head, the better off I am.”

This isn’t the first time that we’ve heard Inge will improve due to a vacuumous noggin. His offensive production last year was attributed to the fact that he “stopped thinking.” I’m sometimes skeptical about stories like these, but in Brandon’s case I might believe it. I’m not calling him stupid, but Inge is a tremendous athlete and could be better off relying on instincts. As a catcher all reports indicate that he did take a lot of pride in calling a game and handling the staff, which may have taken a toll. His splits last year certainly show that he performed better without the additional mental toll (238/280/410 as a catcher, 287/340/453 overall last year). The same seems to hold true so far this spring as Inge is off to a hot start going 5 for 11 with 5 RBI’s.

There was something in the air that night. The stars were bright, Fernando

“It’s as good as Pedro Martinez’s,” said Larry Parrish, manager at Triple-A Toledo. “It’s one of the best I’ve ever seen.

“He has what we call a Bugs Bunny changeup, the kind that reminds you of those cartoons where the batter keeps swinging and missing at the same pitch.”

This is one of those quotes that people instantly misinterpret, and then promptly discredit. Parrish isn’t saying that Fernando Rodney is as good as Pedro. He’s talking about one specific pitch. The same pitch that Baseball America ranked the best change-up in AAA in 2003 (unfortunately I can’t find the link). Parrish mentioned nothing of Pedro’s full repertoire and pinpoint control. Now I don’t know if Rodney’s change is as good as Pedro’s, but it isn’t a ridiculous statement. That being said, this is the year that Rodney has to get it done. He’ll be 28 this year, and hasn’t made a favorable impression at the major league level yet.

I Feel No-Need, No-Need for Speed

“We’re not a speed team,” Trammell said. “Inge, Infante and Guillen can do things that speed guys do — maybe Pudge in his own way — but the rest of the guys aren’t like that.

“That doesn’t mean we still can’t be efficient on offense. We have to run the bases well, get better secondary leads, score from second on hits — things like that are important to your success.”

I’m smiling after reading this for two reasons:
1. Trammell recognizes the type of team he has isn’t a speed team – thus he probably won’t try too many steals/hit and runs.

2. Alex Sanchez isn’t mentioned in there as a speed guy. It could be an oversight, or it could be a hint that he isn’t really “in the plans.” I have a feeling it’s more the former than the latter, but a guy can hope right?

However, you know who is really fast-Nook Logan. I know this isn’t shocking news or anything. I just bring it up because I say his speed on display on FSD’s replay of Bonderman’s shut out. There were two outs, Logan was at-bat, Guillen the runner at second and Monroe on first. Logan hit a shot into the rightfield corner. Guillen easily scored and Monroe was being waved home all the way. Unfortunately he was out by 10 feet. The remarkable thing is that when showing the replay, you could see Logan pulling into third, at the same time Monroe was 10 feet away from home. Now keep in mind, Monroe isn’t slow, Monroe had a lead at first base, and wasn’t being held on, there were two outs so he was running on contact.

Georgie-Peorgie

“Pitching is the name of the game,” he said. “If it takes more money, we’re going to get pitching. If our young guys don’t deliver, I’ll have to focus just like Georgie Porgie (Yankees owner George Steinbrenner) does on pitching.”

This of course was Illitch talking about how he’ll spend to keep this team a winner, which is all well and good. What’s really important is that he called George Steinbrenner Georgie Peorgie. This makes me giggle.

In all seriousness, these are some of the more telling quotes from Illitch:

“I was committed,” he said of improving the Tigers. “The thing that motivates me is good people. When you know you have good people in the clubhouse, no prima donnas, you don’t have any selfish guys, that you have leaders, it gives you a lot of strength as an owner.”

“It’s the most secure I’ve felt from the standpoint of building a team with a good solid foundation,” he said of the Tigers “We’ve never had that, never could get it together.

“You don’t mind investing your money and doing everything you can to win when you have a team that really wants to win.”

He’s basically asserting what was suspected all along – that he would spend when he thought the team was ready to compete. Unfortunately too many years were wasted with Randy Smith trying to build that foundation.

Other Stuff
-David Pinto of Baseball Musings is holding a pledge drive this month. David’s trying to make a career as a baseball blogger. I for one am pulling for him. Pinto’s blog is one of the few blogs that I check several times a day. He’s also been kind enough to link to my work several times recently, and I’m always appreciative of the extra visitors. Also, he was the source/creator/distributor of the Probabilistic Model of Range data that I wrote about several times. Because of all this, I’m going to encourage you to do two things: 1. Check out his blog and 2. If you like what you see, send him a buck, or two, or five, or 10.

In classic Rob Neyer style, I present to you two players’ career statistics:

           Age   AB    BA     OBP      SLG      FPCT 
Player A    27   764  215     287      414       927
Player B    28  1248  227     283      360       935

Neither players’ offensive numbers are good, and the nobody is jumping up and down about their fielding percentages either. Player B is a marginally better contact hitter, but Player A has a respectable slugging percentage and is a year younger.

Player A was released and signed to a minor league contract by a small market team while Player B will be starting at third base for the Tigers.

By now of course you know that I am talking about Eric Munson and Brandon Inge.

I don’t bring this up to be negative. However, the Tigers defense was awful last year, and yet the one move that the Tigers made that is supposed to improve the defense is their new third baseman. This belief is basically a leap of faith. Inge didn’t produce significantly better numbers at third than Munson did.

Now last year Inge (.287/.340/.453)was far superior to Munson (.212/.289/.445) with the bat. However, Munson is the better hitter of the two through their first 750 at-bats. Inge’s offseason break out was unexpected given his meager performance in his first couple years. Who’s to say that a similar season isn’t still in store for Munson?

Now if you’re going to ask me if the Tigers made the right move in retaining Inge and letting Munson go, I’d say yes. With Inge you have a player that can competently play the infield, outfield, and is a fine defensive catcher. Munson was definitely limited to playing a corner infield position, and even then it was an adventure. Also, Munson had a little over a season to show he could play 3rd. Inge only had half a season. Inge is the superior athlete and will probably be significantly better than Munson at third both from a range and arm perspective.

Offensively I’m not quite as confident about the decision. I don’t expect Inge to go back to being a .200 hitter, but .287 is probably just as unlikely. I still think that Munson can be a solid hitter given regular playing time (which he’s still not in line to get in Minnesota). However, Inge was a better hitter when he wasn’t behind the plate last year. It was a pretty small sample size compared to his career numbers so I’m not sure what to make of it.

Keeping Inge over Munson on the roster was the right move. However, those who are counting on the Tigers being significantly better at third this year might want to temper those expectations.

Other Stuff:
-Just a reminder, I’ll be bowling for the Big Brothers Big Sisters of America this weekend. If you’d like to sponsor me, please use the Paypal link in the side bar. I’d like to thank those that have contributed already.
-The Tigers signed the last 13 unsigned players on their 40 man roster. The team declined to comment on the amount of the contracts so I’ll do my best to update the payroll list this weekend. I’d expect the contracts to be between $300,000-$450,000 a piece (that’s the rate for the time spent on the 25 man roster).