Craig Burley has written a preview of the Tigers for the Batters Box. It is probably the most optimistic outlook I’ve seen from a non-Detroiter, and overall it is a very fair assessment.
What does this mean for 2005? I think if you look at the moves the Tigers have made, the reason that a lot of sabermetric analysts are dismissive of those moves is that they are a relatively expensive way of ensuring a slightly below-average team solidifies into a fairly average team. Percival, Farnsworth and Ordonez are not likely to push this team to contend with New York, Boston, or Anaheim. What the Tigers have done in this offseason certainly hurts their push to be an elite team down the road. But it is a move towards being an average team. And an average team in the AL Central, will win about 83-84 games and contend; that’s the kind of division it is. The Tigers have some more money to burn (they couldn’t blow all the money they wanted to spend since Pavano, Kent, Glaus, Beltre, and Finley all turned them down — perhaps seeing the writing on the wall) and if they are near contention, the team is likely to try to spend some of it.
The last time the Tigers finished over .500 was 1993. Tiger fans deserve to see that end this year; best of luck to them.
And in a freakish coincidence, his preview is 1984 words long.
Meanwhile, over on John Sickels new site, Minor League Ball, John takes a look at Omar Infante.
Infante has respectable power for a middle infielder, and given a normal growth curve he should develop into an impressive player. Negative factors include his mediocre strike zone judgment, which could inhibit his offensive improvement, and the fact that middle infielders, especially second basemen, often fail to develop as expected. I don’t think Infante will turn into Ryne Sandberg, but if he can make a bit more progress with the strike zone, and stay healthy, he should have a long career.
Sickels as you may remember was the minor league guru for ESPN.com before they signed on with Baseball America. John started this new site last month, and it is fantastic.
As an FYI, I’ll be kicking off my own Tiger preview articles next week. First up will be the starting rotation.
Thanks for the heads up on Sickles site, I purchased his prospect book a month ago, and he does fantastic work. I agree with Craig’s assesment of the Tigers prospects this year. What I think sabermetricians fail to understand of the Tigers plight, is the complete erosion of the fan base that’s been taking place. It’s not only important between the lines that the Tigers succeed, but in a sense there’s a cultural importance in the change of attitude in the city toward the Tigers. Taking the slow build pattern is not really an option any longer.
Coincidence eh?