Pretty much since MLB went to the six division format in 1994, the AL Central has been among the weakest divisions each year. Cleveland has been the only AL Central team to make a World Series and the division has yet to supply the Wild Card team. The Central was supposed to be more competitive this year with 3 teams having a shot to challenge the incumbent champion Twins. However, an offseason that saw all major free agents choosing coastal teams figured to keep the division at a relative disadvantage. While the AL Central will once again house the worst team in baseball (the Royals), things are looking up. The division has the best team in baseball, the White Sox. Furthermore, if the season were to end today, they Minnesota Twins would grab the wild card slot. So how is it all happening? Is it some combination of luck and small sample size, or are the teams in the Central just getting better?

Taking a look position by position, the Central doesn’t necessarily distinguish itself. Mike Sweeney and the Twins combination of Morneau and LeCroy are tops in VORP at first base. Tadahito Iguchi is having a fine debut season at second base, but he still only ranks fourth best in the league at the position. Carlos Guillen is battling Miguel Tejada right now for title of best shortstop (and MVP if they keep up their current pace). Brandon Inge is second only to A-Rod at third base. At catcher Joe Mauer ranks third in VORP while an impatient Pudge has slipped to fifth (only a .310 OBA). At DH Travis Haffner and Dmitri Young are both playing well but rank only 4th and 5th at their position. And finally, in the outfield only Torii Hunter and Jacque Jones rank among the top 5 at their respective positions.

Where the Central has excelled early this season is on the mound. Johan Santana, Brad Radke, all the White Sox starters, and Jeremy Bonderman are off to tremedous starts. Out of the seven best pitched games this year (using game scores) 5 of them belong to the Central (the other two are Roy Halladay). Chicago as a team has the best ERA in the league with the Twins in second and the Tigers 4th.

The pitchers are getting a boost from great defense as well. Chicago leads the league in defensive efficiency while the Twins are 3rd and the Tigers are once again 4th.

So the Central has had some great pitching and defense mixed with some decent offensive performances. But what about Chicago’s 13-3 record in one-run games? Sure, the White Sox are exceeding expectations, but they’ve done so at the expense of the rest of the division. Looking at Baseball Prospectus’ adjusted standings – which figure out how many runs a team should score and allow based on batting events and adjusting for strength of schedule – the White Sox record dips significantly but the division as a whole becomes stronger.

Team    AdjW     AdjL
Twins   18.5     11.5
Tigers  17.2     12.8
Wht Sox 17.0     13.4
Indians 14.4     15.6
Royals  12.9     18.1

That adjusted record for the Twins is the best in the AL while the Tigers is the second best, and the White Sox are the 4th best. I know that you don’t get to the postseason based on adjusted standings, but it does show just how well the division is playing. Meanwhile there isn’t a team in the AL West above .500 after the adjustments.

This of course could change. We are only a quarter of the way through the season. But so far, the Central should be earning some respect.

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Friday night the Tigers take on the Angels. The pitching match-up is a rematch of Saturday night’s 2-1 duel between Jeremy Bonderman and Bartolo Colon. The weather is supposed to be about 72 degrees at game time. It will be a beautiful night with our ace going up against the ace of a first place team. Yeah, yeah I know there is a Pistons game that night. Regardless, there is no reason that this game should not be sold out. Let’s get excited about Tiger baseball and let’s do it now.