Next year the Tigers may do something that no other AL Central team has done – field a team with a $100 million payroll. Based on the current high price contracts, the younger core reaching arbitration, and any free agent acquisitions the Tigers payroll could swell to triple digits.

Below are the contract terms for players already under contract for 2006:

Player            Salary
Ordonez      $15,000,000
Young        $ 8,500,000
Rodriguez    $ 8,000,000
Percival     $ 6,000,000
Guillen      $ 5,000,000
Walker       $ 1,250,000
Verlander    $   900,000
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Total        $44,650,000

Dmitri Young’s contract for next year is a vesting option, meaning that if accumulates enough plate appearances the option kicks in. I’m assuming that Dmitri isn’t going anywhere, and he’ll be on the payroll next year. Also, Jamie Walker has an option year that I would anticipate the Tigers would pick up. Walker’s a solid reliever and is a good value.

On the other end of the spectrum the Tigers have a number of players who have less than 3 years of service time. These players aren’t eligible for arbitration, have no leverage, and can be retained cheaply. For the purpose of this analysis, I’ll assume that each will make $400,000.

Player            Salary
German       $   400,000
Spurling     $   400,000
Rodney       $   400,000
Shelton      $   400,000
Robertson    $   400,000
Logan        $   400,000
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Total        $ 2,400,000

I’m not positive on the contract status of Nate Robertson and Omar Infante. Robertson saw limited action in 2002 and 2003, but I’m speculating it won’t be enough for him to qualify for arbitration.

Omar Infante on the other hand had limited time in 2002, about half a season in 2003, and full seasons in 2004 and 2005. He may qualify for arbitration so he’ll be included in the next group of players. Those are players with between 3 and 6 years of service time who are eligible for arbitration, but not eligible for free agency.

For this group of players the salary numbers are all estimates. In the case of Jeremy Bonderman and Brandon Inge, I expect the contract value to be slightly more because I anticipate the Tigers working out long term deals that will buy out the remaining arbitration years and early free agency years.

Player            Salary
Bonderman    $ 4,000,000
Inge         $ 4,000,000
Maroth       $ 2,000,000
Monroe       $ 1,750,000
Infante      $   750,000
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Total        $12,500,000

So far I have the Tigers estimated at a payroll of $60 million. Of course that only covers 18 players. The remaining roster places are harder to guess because currently those spots are manned by pending free agents.

Jason Johnson, Kyle Farnsworth, Placido Polanco, Rondell White, and Vance Wilson are all key contributors who aren’t under contract for next year. Collectively those players are making approximately $14 million. Whether or not the Tigers retain those players, odds are the Tigers will be paying significant money to man those spots.

Whether or not the Tigers keep Johnson, they will most likely be paying more for his spot in the rotation. If the Tigers keep Johnson, he will likely earn a raise of $1-2 million based on his performance. Alternately if the rumors are true, the Tigers could be in the hunt for AJ Burnett in which case that roster spot will cost at least $4 million more. Some cheap alternatives would include Joel Zumaya (although probably a year away yet), Sean Douglass (so far so good but two games does not a trend make), or Wil Ledezma (can he find his command?). In terms of next year, all would probably provide a dropoff based on how Johnson has been pitching thus far.

Unless the Tigers get a great offer for Polanco, or Omar Infante somehow starts ripping the ball, I expect Polanco to be back. It sounds like he loves Detroit so far, and he’s the type of hitter that the Tigers have been lacking. Plus he plays solid defense at several positions. If the Tigers resign him, I would expect it to be for approximately $5 million.

Kyle Farnsworth has pitched well enough this year for someone to pay him closers money and give him a shot. Hopefully it will be the Tigers paying him almost closers money, knowing that with an aging and injury suseceptible Troy Percival there will be probably closing opportunities. Again, barring a very desirable trade package, I’d like to see Farnsworth back with the Tigers – but it will probably cost them $3.5 million instead of the $2 million he’s currently receiving.

Vance Wilson is a veteran back-up catcher. If the Tigers don’t sign Wilson again, they will sign another veteran back-up catcher who will make approximately the same salary. The position is a wash whether or not they resign Wilson.

That leaves Rondell White. White has done what the Tigers have asked of him. He’s a great clubhouse guy, and has been one of the Tigers more consistent hitters. While he doesn’t have an arm, he gets to all the balls he’s supposed to. But, he probably won’t be back with the Tigers. This is the one position where the Tigers may go cheaper by giving the outfield spot to Curtis Granderson. Of course they could also look for a left handed slugger who costs a lot more.

If the Tigers retain Farnsworth, Polanco, and either resign Johnson or a free agent pitcher, the Tigers will then be committing at least $15 million more. That puts the Tigers at a payroll of approximately $75 million. There are still a few roster spots left, and the Tigers haven’t added that left handed bat yet. Once some filler for the 40 man roster is added, the Tigers could very well be in the $85-90 million range. So under this scenario they aren’t quite to the century mark, but they could definitely be pushing it.