Tigers continue to spend

The Tigers continue to spend, although not on free agents. Today they announced two more additions to their scouting staff. Detroit named Miguel Garcia as Director of Venezuelan Operations/Central American Scouting and Tom Moore as the club?s Assistant Director of International and Professional Scouting.

You may remember that earlier in the month the Tigers announced the hiring of 4 scouts and Manny Crespo as Director of Latin American Operations.

Garcia and Moore assume similar positions to those they held with the Boston Red Sox. Garcia left the Red Sox earlier this year when they lost their Venezuelan facility. As for long time Tiger scout/employee Ramon Pena, he was promoted to the nebulous position of Special Assistant to the General Manager. Curiously, while Garcia and Moore have been added to the Tigers front office listing on the web page, Crespo isn’t.

Once again, I’ll say the Tigers are doing some things right this offseason. While it won’t help the team this season, investing in amateur scouting will hopefully bear fruit in the coming seasons. The Tigers difficulty in signing free agents without grossly overpaying highlights the need for homegrown talent. These hirings are at least a step in the right direction. Unfortunately that’s little consolation for fans heading into 2006.

Rumors and Rumblings – Closer Edition

Peter Gammons latest offering (which is now Insider – damn ESPN) has some rumors about the Tigers pursuit of bullpen help. Actually, the article isn’t about that at all, but it does mention the Tigers.

Among the rumblings are that Bob Howry turned down $13.5 million from the Tigers to sign with the Cubs for $12 million over 3 years. Gammons also has sources speculating that the Tigers and Indians had offered 4 year deals to BJ Ryan (who signed for 5 years with the Blue Jays). However, my sources indicate that while Ryan was wined and dined and toured the Birmingham area he left town without an offer from the Tigers. (I know I don’t frequently have sources, but I believe my information to be pretty solid here).

I had hoped that the Tigers would be able to land Kyle Farnsworth. However, it appears that he will be a Yankee (I know, another subscription site) for 3 years and $17 million. The report states that the Tigers were among several teams who had offered 3/15. Given the price of relief pitching, that actually seems affordable.

The Tigers need to bolster their bullpen. I’m not giving up on Fernando Rodney as closer, but they need more talent before Rodney (or whoever the closer becomes) even gets the ball.

Baseball in the Dominican Republic

The St Louis Post Dispatch has an interesting article about baseball acadamies, corruption, and buscones in the Domincan Republic. Quoted in the article is Detroit Tigers assistant GM Al Avila.

Avila’s father, Ralph, helped the Los Angeles Dodgers establish a foothold in the Dominican as a scout and executive 30 years ago. The Dodgers subsequently built the nation’s most impressive academy. (The academy was forced to close for one year when the club was found to have signed Adrian Beltre before his 16th birthday.)

“It’s a different system than in the United States,” Avila said. “You have to operate within that system. Certainly there are elements you would like to change. And things have changed to an extent. But it’s still different.”

Article:STLtoday – Sports – Special Reports

Tigers miss on BJ Ryan

One of the Tigers’ free agent targets, BJ Ryan is headed to Toronto. New York Daily News reports that Ryan will get $47 million over the next 5 years. We’ll see if this increases the Tigers’ urgency, or price for Kyle Farnsworth. Whether or not the Tigers’ get a true closer isn’t as important as getting more quality arms in the bullpen. Fernando Rodney certainly wasn’t consistent as a closer last year, but the bullpen woes weren’t all because of a lack of a true closer.

I’m not sure that a 5 year contract would have been in the Tigers best interest anways, but if I were to give any available closer 5 years, Ryan would be my choice.

Sickels Top 20 in Review

John Sickels has posted his review of his 2005 top 20 Tiger prospects. Comparing last year’s list with what transpired, it is easy to say that the Tigers farm system is definitely looking better. Going into 2005, Justin Verlander, who hadn’t even pitched professionally was Sickels top-rated Tiger prospect. While Verlander had a very promising season, I think the preseason ranking had as much to do with the Tigers lack of talent as it did with Verlander’s potential.

While some guys such as Eric Beattie and Collin Mahoney turned in less than impressive seasons, several other prospects more than compensated. Jordan Tata and Brent Clevlen had huge years for Lakeland. Then there was the draft that yielded promising prospects and performances from Kevin Whelan and Clete Thomas – and that doesn’t even include the potential of Cameron Maybin.

Going in to 2006 the Tigers will be losing Curtis Granderson and Chris Shelton off the prospect list, but for all the right reasons. At least right now it looks like the Tigers farm system actually has some solid performers instead of (or at least in addition to) guys with potential.

Light week

Barring any transactions, it looks like this will be a pretty light week. In the meantime, I invite you to look back to March where I asked everyone to make “bold predictions” about what would transpire for the Tigers this season. Here is the link to the posting, and the predictions are in the comments.

Clearly, I expected a little more power from Craig Monroe.

Also, if you are a fellow blogger (or if you’re thinking about becoming one) I invite you to check out another project of mine – Baseblogging. It is a blog about baseball (and other sports) blogs & bloggers. The site is very new, so content is on the light side – but that will be taken care of soon enough.

Tigers Finalize 40 Man Roster

The Detroit Tigers have finalized their 40 man roster with the following transactions:

Purchased Contracts of:
Don Kelly
Joel Zumaya
Kyle Sleeth
Humberto Sanchez
Eulogio De La Cruz
Jordan Tata
Brent Clevlen
Kody Kirkland

Outrighted to Toledo contracts of:
Adam Peterson
Colby Lewis

The roster now stands at 40 players. The biggest omission is probably David Espinosa who the Tigers stand a decent chance of losing in the Rule 5 draft. Speaking of the Rule 5 draft, with the Tigers roster full, I believe that excludes them from participating.

To the best of my knowledge, this represents the Tigers current 40 man roster:


Player 2006 Contract Status Options

================ ==================== =======
Kenny Baugh Indentured Servant Yes
Roman Colon Indentured Servant Yes
Craig Dingman Indentured Servant No
Franklyn German Indentured Servant No
Jason Grilli Indentured Servant No
Preston Larrison Indentured Servant Yes
Wilfredo Ledezma Indentured Servant Yes
Nate Robertson Indentured Servant Yes
Fernando Rodney Indentured Servant Yes
Chris Spurling Indentured Servant Yes
Mark Woodyard Indentured Servant Yes
Tony Giarratano Indentured Servant Yes
Omar Infante Indentured Servant Yes
Ryan Raburn Indentured Servant Yes
Chris Shelton Indentured Servant Yes
C. Granderson Indentured Servant Yes
Nook Logan Indentured Servant Yes
Marcus Thames Indentured Servant No
Don Kelly Indentured Servant Yes
Joel Zumaya Indentured Servant Yes
Kyle Sleeth Indentured Servant Yes
Humberto Sanchez Indentured Servant Yes
E. De La Cruz Indentured Servant Yes
Jordan Tata Indentured Servant Yes
Brent Clevlen Indentured Servant Yes
Kody Kirkland Indentured Servant Yes

Jeremy Bonderman Arbitration Eligible Yes
Mike Maroth Arbitration Eligible Yes
Vance Wilson Arbitration Eligible No
Brandon Inge Arbitration Eligible No
Carlos Pena Arbitration Eligible No
Craig Monroe Arbitration Eligible Yes

Troy Percival Signed No
Justin Verlander Signed Yes
Jamie Walker Signed No
Ivan Rodriguez Signed No
Carlos Guillen Signed No
Placido Polanco Signed No
Magglio Ordonez Signed No
Dmitri Young Signed No

Roster Speculation

As the Tigers enter shopping season it is worth taking a look at their current roster status. Detroit currently has 35 players protected on their major league roster.

For those who haven’t taken the time to plow through the collective bargaining agreement, players can fall into one of three categories. The first category is players with less than 3 years of major league service time. These players have no negotiating leverage. They can be signed for the major league minimum, and there contracts can be renewed each year without any sort of raise. However, teams will typically give players nominal raises each year. These players are classified as indentured servants. (One footnote, players with less than 3 years, but who are in the top one sixth of those with 2+ years of service time are arbitration eligible).

The next category are players with more than 3 years of experience, but less than 6 years. Once a player gets to that magic 3 year mark they become “arbitration eligible.” This is when players finally have some leverage. The teams still retain the players rights – as long as they tender the player a contract. If the team tenders a contract, the two parties can either a) go to binding arbitration for a one year contract, or b) continue to negotiate. If the team doesn’t tender a contract, the player becomes a free agent.

The final category are free agents. These are the players with six or more years of service time. In these cases, a team can offer a player a contract. The player can accept the contract, go to arbitration, or become a free agent. If you’ve heard about draft pick compensation, this is where it comes into play. If a team loses a player to free agency, and they had tendered said player a contract, they can then receive compensatory draft picks based on how the player is ranked by the Elias Sports Bureau.

Below is a table of the Tigers’ current 40 man roster, and the players’ contract status.


Player 2006 Contract Status Options

Kenny Baugh Indentured Servant Yes
Roman Colon Indentured Servant Yes
Craig Dingman Indentured Servant No
Franklyn German Indentured Servant No
Jason Grilli Indentured Servant No
Preston Larrison Indentured Servant Yes
Wilfredo Ledezma Indentured Servant Yes
Adam Peterson Indentured Servant Yes
Nate Robertson Indentured Servant Yes
Fernando Rodney Indentured Servant Yes
Chris Spurling Indentured Servant Yes
Mark Woodyard Indentured Servant Yes
Tony Giarratano Indentured Servant Yes
Omar Infante Indentured Servant Yes
Ryan Raburn Indentured Servant Yes
Chris Shelton Indentured Servant Yes
C. Granderson Indentured Servant Yes
Nook Logan Indentured Servant Yes
Marcus Thames Indentured Servant No

Jeremy Bonderman Arbitration Eligible Yes
Andrew Good Arbitration Eligible Yes
Colby Lewis Arbitration Eligible Yes
Mike Maroth Arbitration Eligible Yes
Vance Wilson Arbitration Eligible No
Brandon Inge Arbitration Eligible No
Carlos Pena Arbitration Eligible No
Craig Monroe Arbitration Eligible Yes

Troy Percival Signed No
Justin Verlander Signed Yes
Jamie Walker Signed No
Ivan Rodriguez Signed No
Carlos Guillen Signed No
Placido Polanco Signed No
Magglio Ordonez Signed No
Dmitri Young Signed No

The Tigers currently hold the rights to 35 players, meaning there are 5 open spots. Of the players currently on the roster, most are expected to be retained (or at the very least traded for another major league player). Players most likely to be removed are Adam Peterson (who had a pretty poor AFL showing) and Andrew Good. Other possiblities for removal include Jason Grilli, Andrew Good, and Preston Larrison. It’s also unlikely that both Marcus Thames and Craig Monroe will be with the team next year.

The Tigers will most likely be looking to free up spaces as they look to sign free agents and protect several minor leaguers. One of the open spots will definitely go to Joel Zumaya who would most assuredly be picked in the Rule 5 draft. Zach Miner, who was acquired in the Kyle Farnsworth trade is also a likely candidate to be protected. Humberto Sanchez (who had a pretty solid AFL showing), David Espinosa, and Juan Tejeda are other candidates to be selected in the Rule 5 draft if not added to the 40 man roster.

The Tigers definitely will have some juggling to do in the coming month. It will be interesting to see how they value some of their prospects, and if they offer arbitration to any of their free agents (Jason Johnson, Rondell White).

Farnsworth speculation

There is an interesting post on the Atlanta Journal Constitutions Braves blog today. The bulk of the post is about Rafael Furcal’s likely destination (unfortunately probably not Detroit), but it also mentioned Kyle Farnsworth.

“Regarding the Braves? other biggest-name free agent, Kyle Farnsworth: The Braves are interested in keeping him, but only if he?s affordable. His last team before Atlanta, the Detroit Tigers, might be the only team willing to give Farnsworth anything close to what he hopes to get, because not many teams seem to be looking at him as a closer; rather, they see him as a setup guy and possible closer.

Mcdonald Traded & New Mud Hens

The Tigers traded John McDonald back to the Toronto Blue Jays for cash considerations. This comes one week after the two teams completed their July trade by agreeing to cash considerations. Essentially, the Tigers rented McDonald for 3 months. The trade frees up an additional spot on the 40 man roster, and may indicate the clubs interest in acquiring another infielder this offseason.

I’m a little sad to see McDonald go, if only because he was so nice to my son when we went to a game.

New Mud Hens Logo
The Toledo Mud Huns unveiled a new logo today.
New Mud Hen Logo - HeadNew Mud Hen Primary Logo
I actually like the new logo quite a bit. Unfortunately I bought a Mud Hens hat a couple months ago. I guess now it will be vintage.

2005 in Review – Tigers run distribution

Earlier in the season I took a look at Detroit’s run distribution. By run distribution I’m talking about the frequency with which they scored (or allowed) a certain number of runs per game. I’ve updated the analysis to include a full season’s worth of games.

The chart below shows the Tiger’s performance given the number of runs the offense generated. Wins are indicated with the orange bars, and blue denotes losses. The yellow line shows the cumulative percentage of games played where the team scored less than x runs. That explanation isn’t the least bit clear, so here is an example using two runs: The Tigers scored 2 runs 21 times (total of wins and losses), and they only managed to win 3 (orange bar) of those games. Furthermore, the Tigers scored two runs or fewer nearly 30% of the time (the yellow line). For comparative purposes, I did the same for all of baseball in 2005.


What I notice first is the large spike at three runs. The Tigers 3 or fewer runs in approximately half of there games, where as major league baseball was held to that mark 40% of the time. In addition, they didn’t fare as well as Major League Baseball at corresponding run levels. At two runs scored, MLB had a .253 winning percentage compared to .143 for Detroit. At three runs it was .347 for MLB and .290 for Detroit. In fact the only run levels where Detroit met or exceeded MLB were at 6 and 8 runs.

Extrapolating a little further, if you look at MLB’s winning percentage at for each scoring level, and apply it to the Tigers then Detroit should have won 76 games. Which leads us into a similar analysis of runs allowed.

Like the runs scored graph, the runs allowed graph has a significant spike. Unfortunately the runs allowed spike is at 4, where the runs scored was at 3. Where the expected wins were typically lower across the board in terms of runs scored, they were inline for the most part for runs allowed. In fact, virtually all the differences in expected and actual wins for runs allowed can be attributed to 2 & 3 run games. When the pitchers allowed 2 or 3 runs, the Tigers won 6 games fewer than expected.

While the pitching staff did implode during the month of August, they were largely effective. Their ability to keep the team in the game was inline with that of other teams. However they weren’t quite good enough to compensate for the offense. Conversely, the offense wasn’t quite good enough to compensate for a slightly below average pitching staff.

Other posts wrapping up the Detroit Tigers’ 2005 season:
Days, Dollars and the DL
Runs Created
A model of inefficiency
Treemapping Win Shares

Tigers add to R&D Staff

The Tigers announced today that they have name Manny Crespo as the director of Latin American Operations. Previously Ramon Pena handled Latin America, and I’m not sure if he is still involved or not (he’s still listed on the team’s website).

The Tigers also announced the hiring of 4 amateur scouts. Ray Crone Jr. and Jim Olander were added as national crosscheckers, Grant Brittain as an area scout and Steve Barningham as a part-time scout. Brittain will scout North Carolina and South Carolina, in addition to northern Georgia. Barningham will scout in the Pacific Northwest.

One of the drawbacks of signings like Magglio Ordonez is that discussions on sites like Baseball Primer focus on the theme that the money would be better spent on scouting and development. Assuming that these hirings are additions and not replacements, it shows that a team with enough money can do both.

While I’m not qualified to comment on the quality of scouts, I can say that the investment in scouting is probably one of the most encouraging moves this offseason. This appears to be the second offseason in a row where Detroit has been committed to scouting and development. Last year the Tigers hired David Chadd to head up scouting, as well as leasing a new training facility in the Dominican Republic. While the dividends will take longer to payout, the Tigers are trying to do the right things.

Bonderman’s Prospect Retro
John Sickels has a prospect retrospective on Jeremy Bonderman.

I was impressed with his overall performance and gave him a Grade B+ in the 2003 book, rating him the Number Nine pitching prospect in baseball.�

The Tigers promoted Bonderman directly to the majors in 2003, skipping Double-A and Triple-A entirely. This kind of decision carries a large risk of backfire with the psychological health of a young player. Although Bonderman pitched terribly in 2003 and almost lost 20 games, he retained confidence in himself. His ’04 and ’05 seasons were qualified successes, as he emerged as a .500 pitcher with an ERA slightly below league average. Given his age, that’s certainly acceptable, and scouts remain very high on his future.