With the exception of a 10 run outburst in Anaheim, the Tigers offense has been in a funk for several weeks. In their last 17 games they have only averaged 3.5 runs per game. Fortunately some strong pitching has kept them 8-9 over that span. What is commonly heard is that the Tigers are really missing Magglio Ordonez in the middle of the lineup. The truth is, they aren’t really missing him that much. In Ordonez’s place Nook Logan has provided nearly as much offensive punch as Magglio would have during that time period. And what Logan hasn’t been able to accomplish offensively has probably been offset by his play in centerfield (and Monroe’s move to rightfield).

If Ordonez hadn’t gone down with his injury, Craig Monroe would still be the starting centerfielder. Logan would have been relegated to pinch runner/defensive replacement/spot starter. As Ordonez’s replacement, Logan has amassed a .367/.387/.478 line with 4 stolen bases against 2 caught stealings. Lost in that stat line is some of the havoc that Logan has created on the basepaths – such as scoring from first on a wild pitch. His runs created/27 outs of 6.26 is third on the team behind only Carlos Guillen and Brandon Inge.

While you can’t say with any sort of certainty what Ordonez would have done during the same time span, you can look at his career numbers as a proxy. Magglio’s career RC27 is 6.89, or a little more than half a run better than what Nook has been providing.

I’m not suggesting that Nook Logan is the hitter that Ordonez is. While Nook is tremendously exciting to watch, he’s probably playing a little over his head right now. My point is that because Logan has played so well, the Tigers haven’t really been that hurt by Ordonez’s injury.

Notes from this weekend
–Jeremy Bonderman continues to look more and more like a staff ace and an All Star. The Tigers were clearly hurt more by the rain delay in the first game of the double header. Despite the fact the score was tied at the time, Bartolo Colon wasn’t close to having the same stuff that Bonderman had. Watching Bonderman is becoming an event, and at this rate games will start drawing 30,000+ just because he is starting.
-It was so refreshing to have an uneventful outing from the bullpen in game 2 on Saturday. In his 3 outings (small sample size alert) Ugueth Urbina has 5 strikeouts against one walk and one hit in converting all three saves. If Urbina continues to pitch like he has in the last week, what happens when Troy Percival is healthy?
-Tiger pitchers aren’t helping their own cause. With Jamie Walker’s and Nate Robertson’s errors this weekend, pitchers now have 6 of the teams 27 errors. While the rest of the defense has been very good (2nd in the AL in defensive efficiency), the pitchers haven’t held up their end of the deal.

Blogging News and Notes
-I’ve started to play with the TITLE tag in HTML. Basically, if you hover over certain text, a window will pop up with a description. I figured this would be effective for some of the less well known stats like RC27. In Firefox browswers words/phrases that have a description are underlined. Unfortunately IE doesn’t share the underlining functionality, but the description will still appear if you hover you mouse over the word. Let me know if you think this is helpful.

-Mario Impemba, play-by-play voice for Fox Sports has a blog over at MLBlogs.

-Detroit Free Press tech reporter Mike Wendland has a story about baseball blogs in today’s paper. DTW got a mention along with TigerBlog and View from the Cheap Seats. Thanks to Mike for the recognition, and welcome to anyone finding their way here for the first time.

With the Tigers having an off day, I’ll keep this light.

Pudge’s Slump
Over his last ten games Ivan Rodriguez is 5 for 41. Using the Baseball Musings day-by-day database we can look and see if Pudge has ever had a streak this rough before. After dumping the data in Excel, it became pretty easy to see this is among the roughest streaks of his career. However it isn’t unprecedented. Just last year he had a period in August where he went 4 for 33. In 2003 he had a ten game stretch in which he went 4 for 32. In 1997 he had a 3 for 29 slump. Before that his worst stretch was a 4 for 35 stint in 1992 which was parter of a larger 9 for 64 downer.

What’s most troubling about this current slump is that he is striking out at a ridiculous rate. He has struck out 15 times in the last 10 games, more than any ten year stretch in his career.

I’m not too worried about this slump yet, and the Tigers have managed to get through it thanks to some strong pitching. I also don’t think the weight loss had anything to do with it. He was hitting perfectly fine earlier in the year. If it was related to weightloss he would have been struggling the whole season.

Big Show for the Big Cure
If you’ve got the time tomorrow, head out to Troy Lanes. Team 1270’s Art Regner and Doug Karsch are doing a radiothon to support prostate cancer research at the Henry Ford Vattikuti Urology Institute. They are doing great things with the treatment of prostate cancer at Henry Ford including a robotic prostatectomy that significantly reduces discomfort and recovery time.

It’s a great cause, and should be a lot of fun. If anybody is crazy enough to join me, I’ll be there from 4:30-5:30 in the morning.

Tiger Love
The United States of Baseball recently had an article promoting Tiger Fandom.

Recently SI.com listed the top 20 young pitchers in baseball. Without getting into a debate about how Jeremy Bonderman was ranked way to low at #18, I wanted to highlight a related post by Will Carroll. Carroll, takes a look at each picture and assesses the pitcher’s mechanics. If you’re not familiar with Will’s work, in addition to his Under the Knife column at Baseball Prospectus, he literally wrote the book on pitching mechanics.

Here is Bonderman’s picture from the article and Will’s take:

For your comparative enjoyment, here is a picture of said Rocket at about the same point in his delivery:

While Jeremy Bonderman has gotten a lot of praise and hype for his performance this season (and deservedly so) the other right hander in the Tigers rotation has put together a very fine season as well. Jason Johnson had a 3.93 ERA and a 2-2 record going into tonight’s game. And if it weren’t for a horrible outing against Minnesota in which he lasted only a third of an inning, his ERA would be 2.65.

The question is can Johnson keep it up?

Looking at his peripheral stats it isn’t encouraging. Over 34 1/3 innings he only has 12 strikeouts against 11 walks. That anemic strikeout rate is reminsicent of Nate Cornejo in 2003. Looking at those periperhals one would expect Johnson to start getting hit harder unless he can improve his strikeout and walk ratio.

However, thanks to the Hardball Times we can get a little more insight into Johnson’s performance this year. The following is Johnson’s statline from the Hardball Times and the league averages.

Player       RA    ERA   FIP    DER   LD%   G/F   IF/F     K/9   BB/9  HR/9   HR/F
Johnson J. 3.93   3.93  4.39   .702  .090  2.14   .200     3.1    2.8   0.6     9% 
League     4.66   4.26  4.26   .698  .168  1.27   .140     6.1    3.1   1.0    11% 

What jumps out is that Johnson isn’t being hit hard. His line drive percentage is a little more than half of the league average. Line drive are the type of ball in play most highly correlated with hits, so keeping your opponents line drives down increases the fieldability of balls. His ground ball to fly blal ratio is well above the league average. Johnson’s G/F ratio was similarly high last year as he relied on his two-seam fastball and sinker. While ground balls aren’t as fieldable as flyballs, they also typically have less painful consequences if they aren’t fielded. Also working in Johnson’s favor is that is infield fly percentage is 40% higher than the league average. And as this article points out, infield flies are very fieldable.

If Johnson can continue to induce a lot of groundballs and infield flies, as well as continue to prevent line drives, it is reasonable to expect that he can expect to get decent results. Now whether or not he can continue these trends remains to be seen. Last year his ball in play numbers weren’t nearly as favorable. His groundball ratio was 1.55, his line drive percentage was .189 and his IF fly percentage was .082.

Based on his performance tonight, it looks like Johnson’s success is predicated on his ability to keep the ball down. In the early innings, Johnson was leaving the ball up and getting hammered in the process. As he settled in he started keeping the ball down and inducing more ground ball outs.

Pretty much since MLB went to the six division format in 1994, the AL Central has been among the weakest divisions each year. Cleveland has been the only AL Central team to make a World Series and the division has yet to supply the Wild Card team. The Central was supposed to be more competitive this year with 3 teams having a shot to challenge the incumbent champion Twins. However, an offseason that saw all major free agents choosing coastal teams figured to keep the division at a relative disadvantage. While the AL Central will once again house the worst team in baseball (the Royals), things are looking up. The division has the best team in baseball, the White Sox. Furthermore, if the season were to end today, they Minnesota Twins would grab the wild card slot. So how is it all happening? Is it some combination of luck and small sample size, or are the teams in the Central just getting better?

Taking a look position by position, the Central doesn’t necessarily distinguish itself. Mike Sweeney and the Twins combination of Morneau and LeCroy are tops in VORP at first base. Tadahito Iguchi is having a fine debut season at second base, but he still only ranks fourth best in the league at the position. Carlos Guillen is battling Miguel Tejada right now for title of best shortstop (and MVP if they keep up their current pace). Brandon Inge is second only to A-Rod at third base. At catcher Joe Mauer ranks third in VORP while an impatient Pudge has slipped to fifth (only a .310 OBA). At DH Travis Haffner and Dmitri Young are both playing well but rank only 4th and 5th at their position. And finally, in the outfield only Torii Hunter and Jacque Jones rank among the top 5 at their respective positions.

Where the Central has excelled early this season is on the mound. Johan Santana, Brad Radke, all the White Sox starters, and Jeremy Bonderman are off to tremedous starts. Out of the seven best pitched games this year (using game scores) 5 of them belong to the Central (the other two are Roy Halladay). Chicago as a team has the best ERA in the league with the Twins in second and the Tigers 4th.

The pitchers are getting a boost from great defense as well. Chicago leads the league in defensive efficiency while the Twins are 3rd and the Tigers are once again 4th.

So the Central has had some great pitching and defense mixed with some decent offensive performances. But what about Chicago’s 13-3 record in one-run games? Sure, the White Sox are exceeding expectations, but they’ve done so at the expense of the rest of the division. Looking at Baseball Prospectus’ adjusted standings – which figure out how many runs a team should score and allow based on batting events and adjusting for strength of schedule – the White Sox record dips significantly but the division as a whole becomes stronger.

Team    AdjW     AdjL
Twins   18.5     11.5
Tigers  17.2     12.8
Wht Sox 17.0     13.4
Indians 14.4     15.6
Royals  12.9     18.1

That adjusted record for the Twins is the best in the AL while the Tigers is the second best, and the White Sox are the 4th best. I know that you don’t get to the postseason based on adjusted standings, but it does show just how well the division is playing. Meanwhile there isn’t a team in the AL West above .500 after the adjustments.

This of course could change. We are only a quarter of the way through the season. But so far, the Central should be earning some respect.

Get Your Tickets Now!
Friday night the Tigers take on the Angels. The pitching match-up is a rematch of Saturday night’s 2-1 duel between Jeremy Bonderman and Bartolo Colon. The weather is supposed to be about 72 degrees at game time. It will be a beautiful night with our ace going up against the ace of a first place team. Yeah, yeah I know there is a Pistons game that night. Regardless, there is no reason that this game should not be sold out. Let’s get excited about Tiger baseball and let’s do it now.

So all three Tiger free agents have reached the disabled list this season – and we’re not even a quarter of the way into the season. Troy Percival will be out 3-4 weeks with a shoulder problem.

Good thing the Tigers held on to Ugueth Urbina.

Jamie Walker and Franklyn German stand to see more work as Trammell tries to keep Kyle Farnsworth’s bicep healthy.

UPDATE: The injury is described as ” a partial tear of his right flexor pronator muscle mass.” Chris Spurling will take his place on the roster.

Because I’m swamped at work right now, and my normal Tiger blogging time was consumed by attending the last two games, I’m going to keep this short. I’ll get a runner on base with a few brief comments, and then I’ll bunt to keep your interest moving along with a few links of note.

-Nate Robertson looked more impressive on Wednesday night. The walks were down significantly for him. The stadium radar gun had him in the low 90’s – even at 94. I’m not sure if Chicago’s gun was slow or Detroit’s was fast, but I don’t believe a swing that big in velocity between two starts.

-With regard to one run losses, I’ve done a little more work along those lines to follow up my earlier post. Hopefully I can get that done early next week. Until then let me pose this question: Would Alan Trammell be getting less heat if his team was losing by more than one run? Everybody is quick to jump on the manager for one-run losses, but isn’t it better than they’re playing competitive than getting blown out? I realize that winning is preferrable to both, but I just wonder if the Tigers were losing big if Tram would be getting the same criticism for losing close. Of all the criticisms leveled against Trammell this season, the only one I think holds water is that he’s resting guys way too much.

-Despite having one of the largest scoreboards in the majors, it is amazing how little information is presented. I’ll have more on this later also.

-Jim Hawkins had an interesting piece about Bobby Higginson.

Higginson’s unhappiness is such an old and tired story. First he wants a no trade clause, then he wants to be traded, then he wants to stay, now he wishes he was playing someplace else. I tried to find some value in Higginson this offseason, and I hoped he’d take to the spot-player role better. However, he needs to be released, and released as soon as Craig Monroe’s groin is healed.

-John Sickels spent 3 nights watching Burlington play West Michigan and has some reports and pictures. Here are photos of Brent Duglach and Jeff Frazier. Here are pictures of Andrew Kown and some commentary. Here is a post about Randor Bierd.
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-Tigerblog has added a new writer and he debuts with an excellent article about how the last ten years have taken a toll on the Tigers place in history.

-Finally, here are some links to newly discovered Detroit sports blogs: Terry Foster, MgoBlog, and Greg Eno.

I’ve mentioned in my last several posts how the Tigers’ pitchers are walking way too many hitters as of late. Once again they paid the price last night. Since it’s being covered extensively in the papers, I’ll just throw out this one arcane stat:

The last time Tiger pitchers allowed 31 or more walks in a five game stretch was at the end of the 1999 season. September 18th through the 22nd they allowed 10, 8, 7, 5, and 4 walks. Unfortunately I didn’t have last seasons logs easily searchable, so I’m hoping it didn’t happen last year. (Information once again from Retrosheet)

Aside from the walks, three other things stood out watching the game last night:

1. On the grand slam, Mike Maroth shook Pudge off on the pitch. Now it doesn’t seem to happen too often that Pudge gets shaken off. However, when it does happen, the ball tends to find the seats. I don’t have any proof of this, I’m just working from observation here. It could be that pitchers shake off Rodriguez all the time, and I have some sort of weird sense to only notice the times before a home run. It just seems that every time I see the pitcher look in and shake his head, I think to myself “Something bad’s going to happen,” or if I’m feeling more musically inclined I think “Eli’s coming.”

2. If you read regularly, you know that I’m generally a supporter of Craig Monroe and I expect him to be pretty good this year. Now granted, Monroe has picked up 19 RBI this season, but his approach after Carlos Guillen’s triple was disappointing. There’s one out, and at the time an important runner on third. Monroe didn’t seem to adjust his swing and it looked like he was swinging for the fences. It resulted in a pop up. Fortunately Thames picked him up with a two out single.

3. Pudge and Marcus Thames both homered on pitches high in the strike zone. I don’t have a lot to say about this except that those are typically the pitches, the high hard ones, that guys can’t hit and can’t lay off. For two players that have been struggling up until last night, it was nice to see them find the seats.

And that’s it for today. I’m off to tonight’s game, and I’ll be attending tomorrow’s as well. I haven’t been to a game for a while, so I should be able to handle the day game after a night game.

Watching the game last night, I noticed that Tiger hitters were bashing quite a few extra base hits. Craig Monroe had a double in the first. Brandon Inge, Omar Infante, and Carlos Guillen all tripled. And of course Carlos Pena had two dingers. While I know that the above sample has a mix of lefties and righties, what really struck me was the right hand hitters going up-the-middle or to the opposite field.

Monroe’s double was down the right field line into the corner, and Inge and Infante both drove the ball deep into the gap in right centerfield. In fact, from watching Inge it seems like most of his success this season has come from driving the ball up the middle or over the second baseman’s head. I took a look at his Hit Chart from MLB.com. Below is a cropped screenshot:

I wish that MLB.com would let you combine the results of all parks, but they make you pick a park so I went with Comerica. You can see that Inge isn’t really trying to pull the ball this year, and he’s had great success. He also hasn’t sacrificed power in not pulling. He’s still accumulated extra base hits, but he’s getting them in the right-center gap.

Now let’s contrast this with Omar Infante who’s numbers have been down this year (although not significantly). Below are Omar’s hit charts from
last year and this year.

While Infante has several ground balls to second, he hasn’t driven the ball to rightfield with any regularity. Last year he accumulated more hits pulling the ball, but he did a better job using the whole field. Hopefully last night’s triple (and his double to left center) will be a sign of things to come.

Other Stuff
Jeremy Bonderman looked tremendous in the first inning, but he followed the trap of other Tigers’ pitchers recently and allowed 5 walks in 6 innings. The difference is Bonderman is good enough to get guys to swing and miss on occasion.

The Tigers closed out April as one of the top defensive teams in the American League. Given that the Tigers were one of the worst defensive teams last year, and they only really switched two positions, this is unexpected. Especially considering that one of the upgrades was moving a corner outfielder to center (Monroe), and a catcher to third (Inge). Now as of late, said corner outfielder is back in right and there is a gazelle patrolling centerfield.

Nonetheless, I was surprised to see the Tigers right behind the White Sox in defense efficiency rating which is simply a measure of the percentage of balls-in-play that are converted to outs. The Tigers are at .7215 against a league average of .6952. This clearly warrants further investigation.

If you look at conventional fielding stats, the Tigers don’t fare nearly as well. They’re 10th in fielding percentage, 8th in errors, and 10th in double plays. While those are improvements on last year, they still are in the bottom half of the league.

So how are the Tigers doing it, if they’re doing it?

The ever valuable Hardball Times statistics shed a little light on the subject. While the Tiger pitchers are allowing fewer infield flys than the league average (infield pop-ups are the most fieldable of all balls in play), they are league average when it comes to ground ball/flyball ratio and they are the best at preventing line drives. Line drives of course being the least fieldable type of ball in play. Now whethter or not the lack of line drives has anything to do with the pitching staff or if it is a matter of luck remains to be seen.

Typically the performance of a pitcher is dependent on the defense behind them. However in this case, the performance of the defense may depend on the pitchers’ ability to serve up easy to field balls.

What a horrible series. The Tigers’ were fortunate to come away with a victory on Friday night, let a lead slip away on Saturday, and just played lousy on Sunday. And there’s nothing like a two game losing streak before the Fire Tram talk starts up. While Trammell did make some mistakes this series, I’m not pinning Saturday’s loss on him, and no amount of managing could overcome a 8-0 drubbing on Sunday.

Trammell received the most criticism for sticking with Jason Johnson even though he was “struggling” in the 7th inning on Saturday. While he did hit the Aaron Rowand leading off the inning, here are Johnson’s subsequent struggles and the count:
-Ground Ball (1-1 count)
-Ground Ball (first pitch)
-Sacrifice Bunt (first pitch)
-Ground Ball (1-0 count)
-Ground Ball (1-1 count)

Only of those ground balls was hit hard. I’m not sure that constitutes struggling, especially considering Johnson is a ground ball pitcher. He wasn’t falling behind, and guys were driving the ball into the ground – not the gaps. While I probably would have walked Podsednik to load the bases and try for the double play, I don’t fault Trammell for sticking with Johnson.

Now pinch-hitting Ramon Martinez was suspect. I understand that Carlos Pena has been in a funk, but if you’re going to pinch hit why use somebody who has one at-bat for the whole season?

Also, the resting the starter concept needs some work. I understand that Guillen was sore (reports are that he hurt his hamstring Saturday night, but I could have swore I saw him limping at first base after his 10th inning single on Friday night.), and that Young was sick. But knowing two of your top hitters were out, why subsititute another starter (Infante)?

Changing Sox
Finished for the time being with the White Sox, the Tigers have a 4 game set against the Red Sox. Cool temperatures might supress the crowds, but not the excitement of having the World Champs in town. I’m really looking forward to reading Blue Cats and Red Sox as her favorite team (the Red Sox) take on her second favorite team (the Tigers).

I don’t normally do reports on individual games, but there was enough interesting stuff going on last night to warrant it.

First, the Tigers had no business winning that game last night. Tigers’ pitchers gave up 11 walks and they hit a batter. In the irony of ironies, Franklyn German didn’t allow any of the walks as he picked up the save with the easiest inning of the night. Between 1970 and 2003 there were 596 times that a team amassed 11 or more walks in a game (I love Retrosheet). However, only 48 of those times did the team fail to win the game. Only six times did those teams fail to score more than 2 runs. The White Sox had the leadoff hitter on in 9 different innings and only mustered one run. That game was the White Sox for the taking, but they failed to do so. That being said, I don’t want to take anything away from the Tigers. They picked up the win and they deserve it. They got the hits when they needed them. This was just one of those games that they happened to “steal.”

Second, something is wrong with Nate Robertson. He only hit 90mph a couple times that I can remember last night. I know it was cold so his 87mph velocity in the first couple innings didn’t concern me because he was probably still getting warm. However, he never really moved above that throughout the game. With his 7:1 walk to strikeout ratio last night, his numbers for the season are 15 walks, and 9 strikeouts in 21 1/3 innings. Don’t let the one run and 4 hits fool you, last night was not a good performance. He benefitted from two balls being caught at the wall, and two double plays. His BABIP for the season is .260, against a league average of .297. That is probably going to catch up with him sooner rather than later. I’m concerned that Robertson is injured. Often times a loss in velocity is a sign of shoulder troubles, while a loss of control is indicative of elbow problems. Nate seems to have lost both. Hopefully there is just a problem with his mechanics, but it is safe to say that Robertson is the pitcher that should have Tiger fans most concerned.

Third, I haven’t written much about Nook Logan, simply because I didn’t expect him to be in the lineup this much. I knew he was fast, I knew he could play defense. I didn’t know he’d hit as well as he has for as long as he has. When his hit in the 11th inning made it to the wall last night, you knew it would be an easy triple. I’m still doubtful that he can hit enough to warrant a spot in the lineup, but I’d be more than happy to have him prove me wrong.

So in the end, the Tigers got the win. They survived shaky pitching, due in large part to Chicago’s shaky hitting. In any case, they’ve won five in a row against division rivals (and the real kind of rivals, not the Royals). They’ve also guaranteed themselves a .500 record in April. All in all, not a bad month.