A couple weeks ago I wrote a post making the case why Curtis Granderson should be the starting centerfielder for the Tigers over Nook Logan. The the bulk of the agrument was based on Granderson’s offensive superiority. I intentionally didn’t delve into defense for a couple reasons. First, defensive metrics are tricky. It’s rare that you can get all the metrics to agree on any given player. Second, that problem becomes magnified when you’re dealing with small sample sizes as is the case with Curtis Granderson. However, there are enough metrics out there that we can take a look, as long as we take a grain of salt along with it.
Baseball Musings has posted the PMR for centerfielders. I lifted the following table, and included some of the prominent centerfielders in the game. Please note, this isn’t a leaderboard, but a sampling of some who ranked near the top.
| Player | InPlay | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | DER | Predicted DER | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Granderson | 1044 | 119 | 110.91 | 0.114 | 0.106 | 0.00775 |
| Andruw Jones | 4309 | 365 | 337.56 | 0.085 | 0.078 | 0.00637 |
| Jim Edmonds | 3538 | 319 | 297.13 | 0.090 | 0.084 | 0.00618 |
| Aaron Rowand | 4128 | 388 | 362.99 | 0.094 | 0.088 | 0.00606 |
| Nook P Logan | 2730 | 282 | 270.92 | 0.103 | 0.099 | 0.00406 |
Baseball Musings: Probabilistic Model of Range, 2005, Centerfielders
Assuming 4500 balls in play in a season, Granderson would make 35 plays more than expected where Logan would make 18 more. Again, I stress caution in the interpretation because I’d be surprised if Granderson was significantly better than Logan defensively. However, in his short stint he appeared to be at least Logan’s equal.
PMR is just one measure. How do the two players compare across other defensive measures?
| Category | Logan | Granderson |
|---|---|---|
| Innings | 843 | 320 |
| Zone Rating | .904 | .951 |
| Range Factor | 2.93 | 3.40 |
| FRAA | 7 | 6 |
| UZR | +30 | ?? |
It looks like PMR seems to be in line with the other metrics as well. Granderson had the better zone rating, range factor, and had only one fewer fielding run above average despite having less than half of the playing time.
The chances of Granderson sustaining that pace over a full season probably isn’t likely. However, if the Tigers are basing their hopes on Logan being able to hit on one month of performance they should be equally comfortable putting their faith in Granderson to cover centerfield. Whether or not Granderson is better than Logan in centerfield, one thing is clear. A defensive alignment that contains both should be formidable for Detroit and could shrink the pastures that are left and centerfield in Comerica Park.
Thanks for following up on the previous Logan/Granderson post. I’d seen those ratings too. I know the few dozen games I saw is an even smaller sample but I still have trouble believing any statistic that shows another Tiger CF with better range than Logan. He’s not perfect defensively but he sure seems to cover a lot of ground and easily. My take, like yours, is that the defensive downgrade going to Granderson is smaller than I might have thought and maybe non-existent.
Oh, and Comerica looked nice this weekend, wandering around next to Ford Field, which I understand is hosting some kind of event this weekend.
Sorry, I was doing the wandering. Comerica Park was not moving.
Bill,
Very interesting post. I’ve been looking at range statistics quite a bit this winter so I’ve noticed how Granderson did well on every metric. It’s hard to believe that he’s that good though and I suspect Logan would do better than him over a larger sample of games.
We aren’t there yet but I think we are getting closer to the day where fielding stats will be pretty reliable. I’m in the process of putting together a data base of all the different range stats so I can look closer at agreement among different stats. It also might be useful to get an average rank across statistics. So far, I have RF, ZR and Gassko’s range stat. I should be able to add PMR shortly. I don’t know how to add other range stats without a lot of manual data entry. If it’s possible to get UZR or any other range stat in a convenient format, I’d love to know where it is.
Lee
Interesting post – thanks!
My personal view, based on nothing other than watching these guys play, is that the extra offence Curtis generates over Nook would more than make up for the defensive downgrade.
I have a sad feeling that they will see more than their share of playing time together with Curtis playing a corner when Magglio is hurt/dh’ing.
My first visit to this site – I am impressed.
SJC – No problem and thanks for the kind words on BTF Primer a couple weeks back (and you too Walewander).
Lee – Pinto might provide you with his data in spreadsheet/csv format if you ask. UZR used to come in spreadsheet format when the data was public. Since then MGL was hired by the Cardinals and now only bits and pieces of UZR become available.
Chris – Thanks and welcome. Love to have new visitors/commentors. Tell your friends. I’ll be here all season!
Defensive stats make my brain hurt, I’ll just throw that out there.
But just from eyeballing the two guys, I completely unscientifically reached much the same conclusion you did. Yeah, it was only a relative few games, and Nook’s got range like he’s the state of Texas, but Granderson just hasn’t looked appreciably more lost out there in the Vast Expanse. I’m wicked hopeful for Grandy.
Personally I’d play Granderson even if Nook was a hybrid of Gary Pettis, Richie Ashurn and Willie Mays on defense. Henning has a clarification in the News today; Logan starting isn’t his idea but Leyland’s, with Granderson in left and Monroe in right. This moves Magglio to DH and Dmitri to…. Anaheim? New YorK? If that’s the case then it comes down to Nook’s D v. Dmitri’s O. A closer call, but I’d still go with the O. I don’t think the defensive difference covers for a putrid .650 OPS which is all we’re likely to get. (Logan has never had a .700 OPS at any level, and .700 is bad for a middle infielder.) His speed on the bases is of negligible advantage if he has a .300 OBP. And if Dmitri really has gotten himself in shape he could put the hammer down for his free agent year. This will probably sort itself out the old-fashioned way– injuries.
An interesting discussion all the way around… And, frankly, I think it’s good that (for a change) we have a number of major-league quality players, almost too many for the spots available… I mean, think back to years past, when it was more like, “Oh, holy hell, if Juan Gone busts a hammy, what the hell are we gonna do then?”… But I have just one question about that chart near the top: “Nook P Logan”? Is that to distinguish him from the other Nook Logan in the league? Just seemed a little weird, is all I’m sayin’…
Here’s hoping that Sluggo (Don Slaught) makes some headway with Nook’s batting in ST, but feels he needs to play every day to really put it into practice… So they ship him down to Toledo, only to be called up in case of an injury that will open an everyday slot for him. Hey, a fella can dream.
Anybody know how we get an RSS feed for this blog? I am not very tech savvy and would really like to get updated info on this blog. Thanks!
You sure seem to be one scientific troop .. but enjoyable reading for sure .. thanks
I was cruising through your site to find out if Granderson has ever committed a major league error .. For some reason, I believe that I heard three or four weeks ago that he had not ever made one.
Has he? Do you know?
Correct, no errors.