Remember when it seemed like Chris Shelton didn’t have a position? In fact one local columnist didn’t include Shelton in last year’s Top 10 Tiger prospects because:
Shelton does not have a position and is unathletic. Last season, when he did get to play in the major leagues and rehab assignment at Toledo, he did not sting the ball. He hit well in arizona, but the caliber of competition was down this year.
Well it turns out that Shelton can play first base. According to PMR, he was a pretty average fielder last year, and given his offensive production, average defense is quite sufficient. (While he made more outs than expected, he fell in the middle of the pack). What’s more is that he was a superior defender compared to Carlos Pena.
| Player | InPlay | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | DER | Predicted DER | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris B Shelton | 2337 | 152 | 146.52 | 0.065 | 0.063 | 0.00234 |
| Carlos Pena | 1363 | 98 | 105.67 | 0.072 | 0.078 | -0.00563 |
Similar to what I did in the Granderson/Logan comparison post, the numbers were interesting enough that I wanted to compare range stats between the two.
| Category | Pena | Shelton |
|---|---|---|
| Innings | 429.1 | 738.1 |
| Zone Rating | .798 | .857 |
| Range Factor | 9.50 | 10.21 |
| FRAA | -2 | 0 |
Shelton comes out on top is every category. I’m not sure if everyone was just flat wrong in Shelton’s ability, or if he improved his game through a ton of hard work, but the results are encouraging. Now what isn’t included in first basemen range is the footwork around the bag. I’m not sure how it could even be quantified, but just from watching that seems to be an area where Pena excels.
While I still want to see Pena get at-bats, it is becoming more and more difficult to find reasons to take Shelton out of the lineup.
I’m not sure about the footwork part, but the number of throwing errors by the other fielders could be used to approximate his ability to “scoop” a bad throw.
I’m not sure the sample size is enough to really use throwing errors by other fielders. For it to work you’d have to assume that each player received a similar number of good and bad throws, and among the bad throws, a similar number of low throws and high throws (since you can’t scoop a ball if it isn’t in the dirt). And you’d have to assume the number of throwing errors to bases other than 1B was the same or similar. We only had about 60 or so total errors by non-1B infielders last year.
I also don’t think RF is terribly usefull for comparing first basement. Really, I think 1B is one of the two toughest positions to measure defensive performance.
Either way, if Pena is getting AB’s, he should be taking them away from Monroe and Young, not Shelton.
David Gassko’s range measure says that Shelton has the worst range in the majors. Who are we to believe? I’m not sure. He didn’t list Pena because he didn’t play enough innings. Based on my own observation, I’d say that Shelton’s range is not good but I don’t know if it’s the worst. I think that taking throws from infielders is more important than range. I believe Pena excels in that department. Shelton seems be ok there – better than advertised.
I have always believed that of any position, 1B is the one in which errors is actually a good measure of fielding prowess. You could use zone rating and range to a small degree to measure a 1B’s defensive value, but the vast majority of a 1B’s value is in making the catch on the throw from the infield, including the scoop on a direct throw in the dirt, which I’m pretty sure 1B gets dinged on as a fielding error if he drops that.
On other positions, obviously, the range and zone rating are much more important, inclduing up the middle, so error totals mean less. (In fact, you can expect to see more erros from good range guys, since they get to more balls they can “muff”. But at 1B, i would weight errors as at least 75% of the equation.
Chuck
Shelton made the best fielding play I have ever seen last year in Seattle, a ball was hit over his head, he threw up his glove which caught the ball and then caught the mitt! Granted, that was in BP, but i have been trying to do that since I was kid!
From Dave Haller at Baseball Prospectus:
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