According to Danny Knobler, Jim Leyland has settled on a lineup.
Granderson, cf
Polanco, 2b
Rodriguez, c
Ordonez, rf
Young, dh
Monroe, lf
Guillen, ss
Shelton, 1b
Inge, 3b
Now if your reaction was similar to mine, you’re probably thinking “Guillen and Shelton at 7 and 8 while Pudge is hitting third?!?” Yes, the lineup is unorthodox, and one I probably wouldn’t advocate. However, I’m not sure how much of a difference it would actually make.
Detroit projects to have a fairly balanced lineup, without any horrible hitters nor spectacular hitters. This will probably temper most changes in the lineup. In fact, using the optimizer and Lee’s aggregate projections for this group the best lineup would score 5.448 runs while the worst would score 5.213. That isn’t a whole lot of difference. However it is worth noting that in the worst lineup Shelton is hitting 8th and Guillen is 6th.
As for Leyland’s lineup, the same tool and projections yield 5.310 runs per game. The lineup optimizer doesn’t take into account handedness, which Leyland’s lineup does. Finally, I’d be surprised if any given lineup is used more than 20 times in a season.
The two most tenuous positions in the lineup probably belong to Pudge Rodriguez and Curtis Granderson. Granderson because he is essentially a rookie and being asked to hold down the leadoff spot for an offense that hopes to be proficient. Pudge’s spot is probably more shaky. This is probably Leyland’s attempt to keep Pudge on his side. However, if Rodriguez struggles I don’t see him being long for the top half of the order.
While I’m not a big fan of the lineup as constructed, I’m also not too concerned in that I don’t think it will actually matter that much.
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I don’t like Shelton hitting 8th. He has far too much power for that spot. More power than Monroe; Shelton had a really good spring. He moves to 6th; move Monroe to 7th and Guillen to 8th. Pudge is ok at 3rd, at least until doesn’t hit. From what I saw of Vance Wilson, he’s more than adequate as a replacement. If Pudge gets yanked, move Shelton up to 3rd, Monroe 6th, and Wilson 7th. Leave Guillen 8th. And, depending on what Ordonez shows power-wise, Shelton could take over that 4th slot if Ordonez falters there. Granderson had a wonderful spring, in my mind, he showed he’s ready for big-league duty. And I’m glad they cut loose Pena; he had no future here with Shelton and Dmitri playing 1b anyway. Now, if we can stay relatively injury-free……
Scott in Tampa – originally from Detroit