A couple of looks at the 2006 season from fellow baseball bloggers…

Simulation

The Replacement Level Yankees Weblog has run 1000 seasonal simulations using 3 different projection systems: ZiPS, PECOTA, and Diamond Mind. With each of the 3 systems, Detroit was projected in 4th place, with approximately a 500 record.

Diamond Mind was the biggest fan of the Tigers projecting the Tigers with a 81-81 record, and had Detroit making the playoffs in 11% of the scenarios.

PECOTA was the harshest seeing the Tigers as only a 79 win team, but Detroit had more playoff opportunities. Using PECOTA, the Tigers qualified for the playoffs in 14% of the scenarios.

The simulations using ZiPS fell in the middle, with the Tigers winning 80 games, but with a 16% shot at the playoffs.

While Detroit was 4th, they were within 6-7 games of first place in the division.

Now the results should be taken lightly, and it is more of a fun exercise than anything else. While the odds don’t appear to be in the Tigers favor, all 3 have the Tigers in the mix.

Speculation

Moving from a scientific method to something that, well, is just a guess. But I think it is worth linking to any preview that has the Tigers winning the AL Central

Again, almost everything would have to break right for Detroit. Magglio Ordonez would have to contribute, as would Pudge Rodriguez. A lot of young players would have to develop in front of us all like Sea Monkeys. The injuries would have to disappear. Still, there are a few reasons why the Tigers are my W.A.G. for the coming season:

1. Ordonez and Rodriguez can’t contribute much less, but they are both capable of contributing a whole lot more.

2. Jeremy Bonderman is talented enough to take a big leap, and the Tigers also have a polished prospect in Justin Verlander who could emerge like a young Matt Morris did in 1997. Toss in the possibility of some fluke performances from inning-munchers like Kenny Rogers and Nate Robertson, and it isn’t hard to imagine a staff that could overachieve for 162 games.

3. There is a whole bunch of young talent on the club, and some of it is going to blow up this year. Curtis Granderson, Craig Monroe, and Chris Shelton have already proven some degree of worth to a big league team, and Omar Infante is better than what he showed last season. Only Brandon Inge really played over his head last year, and he’s young enough to hope that was more development than fluke.

4. There is veteran talent beyond Ordonez and Rodriguez, as well. Dmitri Young and Carlos Guillen can both be above average for their positions.