2006 Season, AL Central, Previews

Tigers Prediction Thread

24 Comments

Well I guess it’s finally time that I give up my prediction for the Tigers season. If you’ve been reading the last couple years, you may remember that I did extensive analysis, player-by-player to predict runs scored and runs allowed to arrive at a final win prediction. That was a lot of work so this year I’m winging it.

I expect the Tigers to be better this year. Curtis Granderson receiving at-bats that Nook Logan had last year will improve the offense. A full season of Placido Polanco, even if he regresses, will be a significant upgrade over what Infante was producing at second base. Chris Shelton occupying the at-bats where Carlos Pena was struggling to find .200 will add runs to the offense. Pudge Rodriguez posting an on base percentage North of .300 will improve the offense. There are lots of opportunities for the offense to be better.

On the other side of the slate, I don’t expect significant drop-off in offensive production from anyone. The most significant loss will be probably be Rondell White’s bat. I don’t think that Craig Monroe can produce at White’s level. I think that Magglio Ordonez can at least produce at the level he did last year. I also think that Carlos Guillen can minimally replicate last year. Even accounting for those guys being injured – as they were last year – the offense should be better.

On the pitching side, I expect small improvements. I expect further growth from Jeremy Bonderman. Kenny Rogers should be able to at least reproduce Jason Johnson numbers. With Mike Maroth and Nate Robertson you know what you get. The wildcard is Justin Verlander. He will have his struggles, but at the end of the year will the Tigers get significantly more production out of the 5th starter spot than Wil Ledezma and Sean Douglass gave them last year?

The bullpen is still a question mark, but I’m actually not worried unless Todd Jones injury lingers. I think the bullpen can be adequate and I expect Fernando Rodney to have a big season and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him supplant Jones as the closer. He now has a full season under his belt since his Tommy John surgery, and from what I’ve heard he will be using his slider this year (which he didn’t last year).

It can be argued that the Tigers were actually a 75 to 79 win team last year. For the sake of argument I’m going to start with the Tigers as a 77 win team last year. I’m going to add 3 to 4 wins for the offensive upgrades provided by Granderson, Shelton, and Polanco. I’m also going to add 2 wins that will come from the pitching staff, namely the improvement in the 5th starter spot.

My final Tiger prediction…83-79. I think that will still keep them in 4th place in the AL Central. However, I also don’t see a team in the Central winning more than 90 games. That puts 4 teams within 7 games of each other, so really anything can happen.

What are your predictions for this season? Give me record, where they finish in the division, and a player you expect to breakout or royally collapse.

24 thoughts on “Tigers Prediction Thread”

  1. 90-72, first place, Ordonez “breaks out” by returning to uninjured form and driving in well over 100 runs.

    Hey, if you can’t have irrational hope on Opening Day, when can you have it?

  2. 82-80, 3rd place (4 behind CLE, 7 behind CWS). Granderson will have an unbelievable year driving Shelton in from 2nd at least a coupld dozen times. I would say, look for Maggs to step it up this year…

  3. 94-68
    At the All star break the tigers will be 4 games behind the white sox and 2 games behind the indians. Illitch Follows through on his promise to do improve the team if it shows promise. The Tigers make a blockbuster trade with the cubs who are desparately out of contention and looking to rebuild and unload salery. The Tigers trade Jordan Tata Brent Cleveland Nate Robertson and Chris Shelton to the Cubs for Carlos Zambrano Kerry Wood and Derek Lee(who will become a free agent in 07). Zambrano moves to the top of the rotation while the Tigers find a spot for Wood in the bulpen, and resign D Lee for a three year deal.

    I guess thats a wacky prediction.

    Here is my more sensible predictions.

    Dmitry Young will lead the team in HR with 27
    Jeremy Bonderman lead the team in wins with 17

    Magglio Ordonez will dissapoint

  4. 82-80 (fourth in the division)… Although i just know that they’re going to end up going 81-81 just to infuriate me.

    Kenny Rogers will go down with a shoulder injury around midseason and Zumaya will be asked to fill in as a starter, leading to a rock solid second half of the season as a starter.

    Verlander will go 6-10 with an ERA in the 5.50 region, but will flash enough brilliance to give us all boatloads of hope.

    Granderson will only hit .280 or .290 but will homer and steal 30 each.

  5. 87-75, third place, 6 games behind Chicago.

    Ordonez has 100 RBI, Shelton does too. Granderson hits about .275 with a .335 OBP and some power. Pudge gets 30 walks (hey he got one today) and hits .300. Monroe regresses but Thames picks up the slack.

    Bonderman wins 17, Rogers 14 and Verlander after a rough start goes 13-9 3.75. Zumaya replaces either Maroth or Robertson in the rotation by the All Star break. With delusions of grandeur they trade Clevlen and Giarratano for a starter at the line (think Jason Schmidt or some such thing), but it’s not enough as they fade in August. (Check the schedule for 8/21 to 8/31)

    Good enough. They break the string and look better for 2007.

  7. “It can be argued that the Tigers were actually a 75 to 79 win team last year.”

    It can also be argued that the Devil Rays actually won the World Series last year. And one could argue that two plus two actually equals five.

  8. Third place at 90-72. Tough division.

    Leyland’s worth an extra ten or fifteen games, this year anyway. He makes decisions before there is no decision to be made and that’s a welcome change to fans and the club.

    Lots of player movement during the season. Performance determines playing time. Two current starters won’t finish the season in the rotation because of this.

    Verlander will be up and down all year, finishes with 10 wins. Bonderman grows up big time and just misses twenty wins. Rogers has a quiet but effective season. Zumaya turns in an amzing season out of the pen and finishes the season as the new closer. Overall, Tigers pitching turns in its best season in a decade (or two).

    The offense again struggles putting guys on base and moving ’em up. Power is key as all starters have 10+ HRs on the year. Young, Monroe and Shelton all top 20. Granderson hits 15-20 HR and leads the division in triples. Ordonez disappoints again.

    Timely decisions and better defense lead to 90 wins.

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