Monthly Archives: December 2006

Contracts, Injuries, Pitching, Players

Dombrowski on the Big Show

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Dave Dombrowski was interviewed today on WXYT 1270. There were definitely more insights than you typically hear in a team executive interview. The 12 minute interview can be found here, but I’ll break out some of the highlights.

Zumaya is staying in the pen

Dombrowski stated very clearly that Joel Zumaya is not moving to the rotation. Prior to the season I would have been highly against this. I was all for trying Joel Zumaya as a reliever to get him some big league experience and take it easy on his arm at the same time. But I still thought at some point he should be given an opportunity to start. I’ve come around on this completely. Zumaya’s dominance combined with the continued strides forward of Nate Robertson and Jeremy Bonderman, the drafting of Andrew Miller, and the emergence of Zach Miner, Wil Ledezma, and Jair Jurrjens make me think this is the right move.

Zumaya likes video games

You remember that wrist injury that limited Zumaya late in the season? Apparently he’s a big fan of Guitar Hero 1 Bundle (with Guitar) and played it all the time. At least this is a correctable problem.

Inge isn’t moving to catcher

When Pudge Rodriguez is no longer catching for the Tigers, they aren’t going to turn to Brandon Inge. He doesn’t want to catch, and the Tigers don’t want him to catch, save for an emergency situation. He won’t be reporting to spring training early with the other catchers this year.

Extending Bonderman

Dombrowski said he’d like to keep Bonderman in the organization long term, but doesn’t feel a pressing need to get it done this season. I agree with this to a certain extent. That said, I’d love to be writing this winter about locking up Bonderman with a new 4 year/44 million contract with a 16 milliion club option for a 5th year with a $4 million buyout.

2007 Season, Roster Management

Gomez is out

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To make room for Jose Mesa on the 40 man roster, the Tigers didn’t tender a contract to Alexis Gomez. The Tigers can still negotiate with Gomez, as can every other team because he is now a free agent. Dave Dombrowski indicated that the Tigers would like to keep him in the organization if possible.

As expected, Jeremy Bonderman, Craig Monroe, Omar Infante, Nate Robertson, and Fernando Rodney were all tendered contracts.

2007 Season, Contracts, Pitching, Roster Management

Tigers sign Jose Mesa

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Jerry Crasnick is reporting the Tigers have signed Jose Mesa to a 1 year $2.5 million deal. I for the life of me can’t figure out why. Not why Crasnick is reporting it, but why the Tigers would do it.

Mesa is 40 years old, and for the last 3 years he allows more than a hit an inning. He walks a batter every other inning, and he only strikes out a few more than he walks. He’s basically a 40 year old version of Jason Grilli at 6 times the cost.

One of my arguments for not keeping Jamie Walker was that he didn’t see enough high leverage situations for the Tigers to justify $4 million a year. I only hope that Mesa doesn’t see enough high leverage situations to justify his money. My fear is that like the Tigers other aging, $2.5 million bundle of joy, he will see significant time.

This one I just don’t get.

2006 Season, Contracts, Players

Inge gets a new deal – is he worth it?

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The Tigers appear close to a long term contract with Brandon Inge. The deal is believed to be for 4 years and $24 million. This certainly seems like a reasonable deal for the Tigers, even before taking into account the current free agent landscape. The Tigers don’t have anyone in the minors knocking down the door to play third, so he won’t block anybody for awhile.

Inge has posted OPS+’s of 108, 100, and 99 over the last 3 years. So he’s pretty much a league average offensive player at a position that typically is above average offensively, making him a little below average with the bat.

American League third sackers hit 269/338/442 while Inge hit 253/313/463 last year. I’d love more OBP, but he does compensates somewhat with extra power. He’s 29 so I don’t expect much improvement at this point, but given his body type and athleticisism I also think that level of production is sustainable for the length of the contract. While the article says the intention is for Inge to play third throughout the contract, there is also the added bonus that if the Tigers can’t find a replacement for Pudge Rodriguez, Inge is certainly equipped to fill that need as well.

But of course the lightning rod of Brandon Inge discussions always focuses on defense. Detractors will look at the high error total and say he isn’t any good. That he makes some spectacular plays but that doesn’t make up for the easy ones. Proponents of Inge’s defense – like myself – will say that even with the errors he still saves more than enough runs to make up for the minor deficiencies in his offense. And so we’ll do that again here.

Turning to the Probabilistic Model of Range, Inge ranked near the top of all Major League third basemen. (PMR looks at the rate at which fielders turn ball put in play into outs while adjusting for the type of hit, where it was hit, and handedness of batter and pitcher) Inge made 26 more plays than expected. This is includes all those errors on plays he didn’t make. Using a value of .80 runs for each play made means that Inge saved the Tigers 20.8 runs with his glove which is more than enough to make up for the slight deficiency with his bat.

As a little more proof, other advanced defensive metrics agree with Pinto. Inge came out on top in the AL in Chris Dial’s sytem. Dial had Inge saving 20 runs per 150 games played. In the Bill James Handbook John Dewan listed the +/- leaders at each position. (the +/- system involves people watching every single play and giving credit based on whether or not others had made a similar play, a +/- of 0 means you’re average) Inge led all third basemen here as well with a +27.

Whether or not Inge is the best third basemen in the AL can be debated. Whether he is one of the best can not. Inge’s bat didnt’ earn him the contract. But his combined value with the glove and his versatility certainly did.

2007 Season, Managing & Strategy, Roster Management

Leyland gives us something to talk about

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Jason Beck has been all over the Winter Meetings. Today he’s got some Jim Leyland nuggets that warrant some discussion.

The leadoff spot

So the Tigers don’t have a prototypical leadoff hitter, or at least prototypicaly in the sense that most people think of leadoff hitters: fast guys who steal bases, bunt, and don’t strike out a lot and don’t hit for power. Many view Juan Pierre and his 330 OBP last year as perfect. But I digress. The point of this is that Jim Leyland is talking about Curtis Granderson, Placido Polanco, and Ivan Rodriguez to be the leadoff man.

Granderson is a logical choice because he held the post last year, and he’s the closest to that qualification for fast. Polanco is fine as that pesky guy who will always put the ball in play. The name that will raise eyebrows is Pudge Rodriguez. The same Pudge that more than doubled his walk total from 2005 by picking up 26 free passes.

But I don’t think this is a bad thing to try. Pudge led off in 3 games in 2006, and drew 3 walks. Three games is of course and insufficient sample, but when placed into that role he seemed to make a concerted effort to see more pitches. I don’t know how likely it is that he would be successful in the role, but if it helps him improve his plate discipline the Tigers will benefit.

Marcus Thames at first

Leyland wants to give Thames a shot at first base. I think this is a wonderful idea. After all, first base is often a last option for defensively challenged players. The upside is that Thames is passable defensively, and you have quite the platoon partner for Casey. You also keep Thames on the team. You also keep Santiago/Perez from being Casey’s injury replacement (by extension of course when Guillen moves from short to first). It certainly wouldn’t help Chris Shelton’s cause, but Shelton has an option year left. Thames doesn’t.

Omar in the outfield

Leyland also said that Omar Infante will most likely be the backup centerfielder barring a trade. Infante is athletic enough to pull it off, and any indication that Leyland sees a role for Infante is a positive.

Players, Roster Management, Trade Rumors

The Winter Meetings and Craig Monroe

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According to reports out of Disney World, Craig Monroe is the Tiger du jour in terms of trade rumors. Jerry Crasnick first mentioned Monroe’s name on Monday. Scott Miller indicated the Dodgers might be interested in Craig. Amy Nelson chimed in and reported that the Orioles asked about Monroe and that the Tigers asked about Nick Markakis.

Jason Beck got in touch with David Dombrowski and DD confirmed that the Orioles initiated discussions this morning, but he wouldn’t confirm it was about Craig Monroe. Basically the Tigers are listening but it sounds like they are pretty much set.

Here’s how I see it. The Tigers probably should trade Craig Monroe. I say this as a fan of Monroe. He’s a decent player, a really likable guy, and from all accounts a great teammate. I don’t really want to see him go anywhere, but he and Thames are duplicative. Marcus Thames won’t be a free agent until 2011 where has Monroe is a free agent in 2009. Both players are the same age but Thames has posted slightly better OBP and SLG numbers (316/491 vs 310/461) than Monroe, granted in a much less playing time. Monroe is faster and appears to have a better arm and cover more ground in the outfield than Thames. However, according to the Probablistic Model of Range Monroe was slightly below average while Thames was marginally above average. I’d say it’s close enough to be a push defensively.
Continue reading The Winter Meetings and Craig Monroe →

2007 Season, Minors, Roster Management

Tigers Rule 5 Primer

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Scout.com has a Rule 5 Draft Preview. This is particularly helpful for those of us who can’t keep tabs on all other teams minor leagues.

In case you’re not familiar with the Rule 5 Draft, players who are typically 3 or 4 years removed from their signing(although due to the CBA it’s 4 years this year) either need to be protected on the 40 man roster or they’re left exposed for other teams to draft them. As compensation, teams that lose a player are compensated $50,000. In other words it’s a cheap way to add talent. The catch is that the player must remain on the 25 man roster of the drafting team the entire season, or they need to be returned to the original club. (Here’s a more complete breakdown of the Rule 5 draft.)

The Tigers have one spot open on their 40 man roster meaning they could participate. The most likely need they’d target is a replacement for Jamie Walker. There are 2 interesting names who the Tigers could pursue.

1. Charlie Manning-27

Manning is a left-handed reliever who has posted a career mark of 45-29 and has averaged over eight strikeouts per nine innings in his six-year career. He doesn’t throw particularly hard, sitting around 86 MPH with his fastball, but he has a very good cutter and the development of his slider has made him a devastating opponent for left-handed batters. He held Double-A lefties to a .163 and his strikeout ratio against them was over 11 batters per nine innings this past season. Manning could be well worth the small financial risk in the Rule 5 Draft and find a home as a left-handed specialist on a big league roster next season.

2. Dan Smith -23

Smith was a non-drafted free agent signed the summer of 2003 after he missed his senior season in high school with an injury. The lefty was extremely successful as a reliever in the minor leagues, but the Braves moved him into the Double-A rotation in Mississippi late last summer to allow him to work on his pitches. Smith’s performance over eight starts was scary: 2.27 ERA, 24 hits in 39.2 innings pitched, 16 walks, and 53 strikeouts. The Braves still believe he can be a big league reliever, but the work as a starter may get him another chance in that role. He’s a kid that some scouts may feel is worth sticking in a big league bullpen.

Of course if the Tigers were going to try and fill Walker’s spot they could have just protected one of their own in Cory Hamman. The Scout article lists Ryan Raburn as another possibility to get drafted while Baseball America says Sendy Vasquez could get snagged(premium content).

2006 Season, Fan Experience, Minors, Statistics

Short cuts

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While I wait for the BCS results, I’ll let others do the heavy lifting and link out:

  • There’s an interesting look at the results by count, and more importantly by what happens after a certain count. The Tigers swung at a ton of first pitches, and Tom Gage even had some stats saying it was a good idea. My issue with Gage’s stats were that they simply showed the result when the ball was put in play. It didn’t take into account the adverse effect of fouling a ball off or swining and missing and putting yourself in a hole. He also didn’t mention sample sizes. By only looking at balls in play, he essentially takes out the possiblity of striking out which isn’t realistic and then there is the issue of not enhancing your OBP via the walk. I didn’t really have the comparisons for what those numbers should look like, but they’re available now. We still don’t know the complete picture on the Tigers at-bats, but it is an interesting comparison nonetheless.
  • Baseball Analysts took a look at the best and worst defenders in the minors from 2006. The good news is that no Tigers showed up on the worst list. Kevin Hooper rated as the 2nd best defensive shortstop last year.
  • Via Knuckle Curve Baseball America has put out a scouting dictionary. So if you want to know what a long swing is, or what it means for a pitcher to throw downhill, this is the place to check.
  • Finally, it looks like there will be a DVD chronicling the Tigers season. It will be available December 7th and exclusive to Meijer stores. The DVD will retail for $18.99. For those interested in a sneak peek, the premiere will be December 6th at the Uptown Palladium in Birmingham. Dan Dickerson, Mario Impemba, and Nate Robertson will be on hand. Tickets are $10. Call 313-471-2052 for tickets and premiere information.