A look back at the year that was 2007 here at the Detroit Tigers Weblog…
There are a few items that didn’t fit into the other posts about the outfield park factors that I wanted to wrap up.
First I wanted to acknowledge some other work that was done. Chone calculated outfield park factors in the fall of 2006. I either missed this or completely forgot having seen it.
Also, Dan Fox continues to post about simple fielding runs and has now calculated the metric for the outfielders, which include outfield park factors. What I found surprising in Dan’s work is that using SFR Curtis Granderson ranks below average. It’s the first defensive metric I’ve seen that has him ranking poorly. Comerica’s outfield park factors that show fewer balls dropping in, adjusts his SFR downward because in some respects Comerica’s centerfield is a little easier to play.
When I was doing the other park factors, I was doing it at a broader level. Fox was breaking it down by hit type and batter handedness. I had pulled back that data as well and thought it was worth looking at a more granular view. The table below reflects Comerica Park’s park factors for the last 4 seasons.
Lee commented in the original post that he was curious to see what would happen with line drives because Comerica Park has a reputation as being great for line drive gap hitters. This seems to hold true for lefties who see more balls than normal drop into the corner outfield spots. But for right handers the opposite is true.
Meanwhile right handed hitters are best served to drive the ball to centerfield which is the only field that is favorable for them.
I find it interesting that fly balls to center rank so well for righties while they rank poorly for lefties. I wonder if this is a case of positioning and that perhaps the fielders are over shifting. It’s also worth reiterating at this point though that we don’t really know where the balls are being hit using this data. We just know who ultimately fielded the ball.
I just wanted to take a moment to wish everybody a happy and healthy holiday season. May you be safe in your travels.
For Tigers fans I think we’ve already received some pretty nice presents. Here’s hoping that Miguel Cabrera’s stocking gets stuffed with a nice fat contract extension in the not-too-distant future.
I also wanted to announce some Christmas presents to DTW readers. I’d like to say thank you to the top 3 commentors on the site in 2007 with a baseball book. First, here are the top 3 commentors ranked by volume:
1. Kathy (1214)
2. Mike R (1048)
3. stephen (926)
Starting in order they will get to choose between The Hardball Times Annual
Merry Christmas and the warmest wishes.
I didn’t really expect to be writing another post about Chad Durbin. Sure, I was going to include a link at some point that he had signed with the Phillies, but that was just going to be a bullet point. But while reading Bless You Boys this morning, it was brought to my attention that Durbin took time to swing by Roar of the Tigers and leave a comment.
You see, Samara took a liking to Durbin following his spectacular effort against the White Sox earlier in the year. Samara thought the effort and Durbin were “pimp” and as Samara does she created an image to that effect. It came became a running thing. With Durbin leaving, Samra did one last pimp for Chad Durbin. Chad left the following comment on the post:
Samara,
Thanks so much for the attention and virtual pimp status! My family informed me last year of the blog and it was certainly the focus of some fun-poking on my account. I understand baseball’s dynamics and realize that it is hard to find reasons to cheer for some of the obscure, forgettable players. There are more “forgettable players” out there than the stars…we all understand that much. I don’t have to defend the amount of tremendous success a baseball player must have to reach even the obscure status, either…because this was all in fun. Thanks for finding reasons to make us/me unique. The beauty of free media, right??
I’ll have to check in to see who the next pimptim is…best of luck! Oh yeah, to ease your mind on having to cheer against me…I’ll most likely be in the NL. Pittsburgh, Philly, NYMets…somewhere like that.
Chad Durbin
Very cool on Chad’s part and very cool for Samara as well. And while I posted the comment here, the real incentive for you to click through to Roar of the Tigers is the imagery itself.
Curtis Granderson is hosting a celebrity basketball game to benefit Grand Kids Foundation. The game will take place at Avondale High School on the evening of January 26th. The confirmed participants so far include Tyrone Wheatley, Andre Weathers, Courtney Hawkins, Jeff Grayer, Anthony Dirrell, and Rashad Evans.
All kinds of credit goes out to Granderson for being so quick to give back. Curtis only has 2 years of service time meaning that he’s only making near the league minimum and isn’t a millionaire athlete and already he’s involved.
For those worried about Granderson turning an ankle a month before spring training, he won’t be playing in the game. He and Nate Robertson will coach the teams representing Flint and Detroit and the two will compete in a 3 point shooting contest.
Tickets are $15 for adults and $10 for kids. There are also $10 autograph tickets available as well.
Tickets can be purchased at the Grand Kids Foundation.
The Tigers and Dontrelle Willis agreed on a 3 year contract. The Tigers will pay Willis $7 million in 2008, $10 million in 2009, and $12 million in 2010.
It’s a very reasonable deal with limited downside. The surge in homers and walks last year was disturbing, but he should benefit from Comerica Park’s left field which is more favorable for fielding than Florida and may trap a few of those homers. Of course Willis is a ground ball pitcher and he’ll have better defense at short and second than he had in 2007.
Plus given his age there is a decent chance he rebounds and gets better. There’s also the chance he was overworked at a young age and the injury he said he battled in 2007 could simply be foreshadowing of larger problems.
Regardless, there is little not to like. Given the current market for starting pitchers, and even discounting that Willis isn’t on the open market, the contract appears to be a very fair valuation.
Danny Knobler has some notes from presser and came away impressed. And for those wondering Willis will wear 21 in honor of Deion Sanders.
Earlier in the week, I questioned the widely held belief of whether with an outfield like Comerica Park’s the Tigers should have 2 centerfielder-types to man the large left and center fields. Using park factors and looking at the rate at which balls in the air drop in for hits, we saw that fewer balls drop in in left and center at Comerica Park, while more tend to fall in right field. Now we’ll take a look at what happens when the balls do drop in.
Again I will turn to park factors. And again I will borrow from Dan Fox and use a metric that is total bases per baserunner. And like the previous analysis, I focused on balls in the air.
The tables below represent the park factors for each of the areas of the outfield, as well as an overall rate. (click the chart for a larger image)
Here’s where the Comerica Park we know and love comes out. There is more extra base goodness in Comerica Park’s center field than any other stadium, and not surprisingly it comes in the form of triples. Over the last 4 years 8.7% of all triples hit to center field in the Majors have come in Detroit. Here is the distribution of hit type on balls fielded by the center fielder:
1B 2B 3B MLB 68% 28% 5% DET 63% 25% 13%
If the ball gets to the wall, only the slowest of the slow runners aren’t going to end up with a triple. While it’s not surprising to see doubles turned into triples, it is a little surprising to see so many singles turned into triples. It must be a function of the fact that centerfielders play relatively shallow cutting off many would be singles which does correspond with the earlier data where fewer balls drop into center field at Comerica.
But back to the original question about the difficulty of playing left field in Detroit, the data just doesn’t bare that out. Fewer balls drop for hits, and there are fewer bases per baserunner in left field. In right field we see a few more balls dropping for hits, but it is one of the toughest fields to get extra bases. Perhaps the right fielders are playing too deep?
While having multiple outfielders with above average speed and range is never a bad thing – especially in larger parks of which Comerica Park definitely ranks – there isn’t anything about Comerica’s left field that makes it any more necessary than in any other stadium. While the argument for “2 centerfielders” can certainly be made, it really only looks like it would help if they were both manning center at the same time.
The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at www.retrosheet.org
“How big is it?”
You need 3 center fielders to cover all the ground out there
Okay, as a joke it’s awful, but it is a common statement amongst Tigers fans. At the very least the belief is that multiple center fielder type players are required to man left and center fields. When you look at the massive expanse of green, it certainly seems believable. But when I go through the game rolodex in my head, I don’t recall an inordinate number of balls landing in the left-center gap. Center field is a massive piece of real estate, but since the ball park was reconfigured left field seems quite manageable. Does Comerica really play as big as it’s reputation in left and center fields?
Continue reading Comerica Park’s outfield is so big…
After an obscene amount of coverage for an event that will change baseball forever, the long awaited Mitchell report was released today. In it we learned that it is hard to get dirt on people if you don’t have any legal authority to make them tell you stuff. And if the stuff is self-incriminating it is even harder to get people to talk. So can we move on now?
So what did we learn? That some former Tigers used anabolic steroids and HFH with mixed results. My fellow Tigers bloggers have already covered this in depth so I suggest you read their takes.
As for me, it’s hard to be truly surprised. If I were going to guess 3 former Tigers to be on the list, I doubt that Rondell White, Fernando Vina, or Nook Logan would have even been in my top 5. At the same time it makes perfect sense as well. A couple guys who can’t stay healthy and a guy that relies on speed and probably wants to add some punch. But the Tigers sampling does show how widespread and varied the use may be (probably is). We also learned that you shouldn’t buy such drugs with personal checks in the event a supplier has his home raided.
Mike Valenti from the Ticket 97.1 was complaining that the report was boring and that there weren’t enough names of significance. He complained that many of the players names were essentially nobodies. I’m not sure what Valenti was looking for in terms of entertainment value and shock and awe. But instead of dismissing the non-significant players he perhaps should have realized that the report may be indicative of steroid use in MLB
It’s what would appear to be a random sampling of baseball’s population. It’s guys like Roger Clemens — and Jason Christiansen. It’s Miguel Tejada — and Mike Lansing. It’s Jason Giambi — and Jeremy Giambi. If anything, in fact, the list appears to have a tilt toward marginal players rather than stars, something which might have been predicted based on both the circumstantial statistical evidence, and the underlying incentives behind steroid usage: it’s the guys who are trying to become millionaires — not those who are millionaires already –who have the most reason to cheat.
In the end I don’t know much more than I did before. There did appear to be some assurances that the drug program is helping – not solving mind you – but helping curtail the use of steroids. The sport will never be clean, but the efforts to date look to be moving things in the right direction. The afternoon also affirmed most widely held beliefs about Bud Selig and his buffoonery. He schedules a press conference but can’t answer questions because he hasn’t read the report. Also Bud urges everyone to not dwell in the past when it comes to holding MLB accountable, but he’s prepared to hand out punishments for the players role. Nice Bud.
So the Mitchell Report is done. A couple years and tens of millions of dollar later we finally learn the information that local, state, and federal authorities discovered while conducting investigations. Whoopee.