The Tigers traded for Edgar Renteria. They’ll send the Braves Gorkys Hernandez and Jair Jurrjens.
I’ll have more on this later when I digest it, but wow. Renteria is a nice player and affordable, but the Tigers just traded 2 of their top 4 prospects for a shortstop on the wrong side of 30. This team just got a lot older.
Renteria of course has ties to Dave Dombrowski and Jim Leyland, and Dombrowski has shown a preference for the familiar. Renteria was signed as an amateur free agent in 1992 by Dave Dombrowski (I think Al Avila was a scout at the time, but not sure if he was the one who signed him). And of course Renteria was part of the 1997 Marlins team managed by Leyland.
UPDATE: It appears that the Braves are sending some cash to the Tigers. I find this odd, since the contract is fairly manageable with $9 million owed next year and an $11 million option for 2009. Are the Tigers going cheap now, saving money for another big free agent, inking Granderson/Verlander long term? Odd for cash to change hands in this one.
More later…
It’s later…
Analysis
I continue to waffle on this trade. All along I liked picking up Renteria, but was having a hard time getting comfortable with the price. Granted Jurrjens was likely a 3 or 4 guy in a rotation, but since when did that designation carry an “only” with it? Especially for someone that comes cheap for the next 6 years. But that’s only half of the price.
The Tigers also shipped Gorkys Hernandez, their 2nd best positional prospect. A guy who held his own in the Midwest League at the age of 19. He’s someone with Granderson’s feel in the outfield with Cameron Maybin’s speed. Granted he doesn’t project with a ton of power, but for his age and the park he played in the .391 slugging doesn’t bother me.
Now I can try to balance with my natural fan tendency to overrate my own team’s players by drawing on the negatives in Jurrjens and Hernandez’s profiles. Gorkys needs to add some walks and some power, plus he shouldn’t be expected to contribute at the MLB level until 2010. Jurrjens has dealt with some neck issues each of the last 2 seasons. Maybe it’s a chronic thing?
And I can also justify it by looking at all the Tigers are adding.
More offense?
So in the lineup the Tigers are essentially swapping Sean Casey for Renteria. I’m not too worried about Renteria’s one awful season in the AL. I don’t know if it was a Boston thing, or just a bad season. Either way at this point I’d call it coincidence.
Renteria is coming off the second best season of his career with an impressive .332/.390/.470 line good enough for a 125 OPS+. Since it was an exceptional year, maybe it makes sense to look at Renteria’s performance over the last 3 years which was 298/360/437 – still a nice line. It is 264 runs created and 5.9 runs created per 27 outs.
Sean Casey had 197 runs created over the same span, but battled some health issues so his RC 27 is 5.5. Now I used the quick and dirty TB*OBP calculation, so the difference is probably a little greater when you factor in Renteria’s 37 stolen bases (and 12 caught stealing) versus Casey’s 4 stolen bases and 3 caught stealings.
So the difference in offense between Casey and Renteria over 145 games is about 1 win.
More defense
Acquiring Renteria was necessitated by Carlos Guillen bottoming out defensively. He appeared to have decent range early in the year but various errors (botching routine plays, errant throws, bobbling the transfer) and knees that turned creaky later int he year torpedoed what range he had.
Ultimate Zone Rating data which was released in July had Guillen rated at -26 runs per 150 games. Edgar Renteria at the time was rated at -13 runs per 150 games. Of course Guillen would be a longshot to make it 150 games at short, but if he did the result would likely be worse than -26 runs. And in 2006 Renteria was +6, but in 2005 he was -14. So perhaps the -13 wasn’t a sign of a trend. The fans scouting report rated Renteria a 61 in 2007, but only a 53 in 2006 so I’m not sure where the truth lies. But for the sake of argument let’s use the partial season data rated at 150 games and call it 13 runs or a little more than a win.
Net impact
So in terms of performance the Tigers have added 2 to 2.5 wins. For a team that is on the playoff bubble though that isn’t inconsequential. And Renteria comes with an affordable price tag with $12 million guaranteed over the next 2 years which could go to $20 million if the Tigers exercise a club option. Nate Silver has broken down the dollar implications of the deal and says both teams won in this trade.
Yay or Nay
A tentative yay. I like the acquisition but I don’t like the cost, but I’m not alone in that sentiment. I also agree with Lee who notes that this is a trade we could be talking about for years to come.
Other stuff to consider:
- This ends any A-Rod speculation before it barely got started. I was kind of looking forward to that. It also means that there will be no Jack Wilson speculation which I had my fill of this summer.
- The tigers do have some shortstop candidates in Danny Worth, Mike Hollimon, and Cale Iorg and at least one of the three should be ready by 2010.
- Renteria has the Carlos Guillen seal of approval so there shouldn’t be animosity about the position switch for Guillen.
- Maybe this means that the Tigers are happy with what they’ve seen from other outfield prospects like Deik Scram and Matt Joyce. They aren’t nearly as toolsy as as Hernandez but maybe there is more there than I’m seeing.
Other Coverage
- Talking Chop: Frank Wren already fielding calls from clubs interested in Gorkys
- Take 75 North
- Braves Journal
- Mack Avenue Tigers
Lord have mercy, that didn’t take long. Very exciting!!!!
For Jair and Gorky’s??? OMG, that’s kind of scary!!!
That’s a high price to pay…
World Series or bust
VERY interesting….I have to say…I hate giving up top prospects, but we already have TWO top flight CF options for a long time in Granderson and Maybin and I think Jurjens is great, but doesn’t have the electric stuff that Miller and from the sounds of it, Porcello have. WOW is all I can say
At least we didn’t get stuck with Jack Wilson!
I am upset about JJ. I can’t say anything else.
yikes.
did anyone have thoughts of Doyle Alexander run through your head?
This is what prospects are for. We had a glut of SP’s ready for the majors, and we had a glut of CF’s further down in the system. You’d rather lose JJ than Miller, based on stuff alone. In the outfield, Maggs is signed for a long time still, Grandy is here for a decade or more, and Maybin is on the way, maybe by the All Star break if they decide to platoon in LF. So, it makes sense to spin Gorkys, the one who’s furthest from the show, into a ML player. Let’s just hope the Tigers identified the right guy to give away (as opposed to what the White Sox did when they gave away Chris Young to the D-Backs for Vazquez).
As for Renteria, he’s the oldest 31-year-old this side of Andruw Jones. From what I’ve read, scouts seem to think his defense is on the decline. So, I’m not sure that this is the Gold Glover Carlos was asking for when he made the switch to 1B. And of course, Renteria had his worst season as a regular during the one year he played in Boston, but hopefully that was a Boston thing and not an AL thing. We’ll see… He’s a solid bat if he’s on his game. Maybe Polly bats leadoff next year, Renteria 2nd, and Curtis moves down into an RBI slot? Interesting decisions there.
Jason – That is EXACTLY what I thought. Maybe this one will turn out better for us.
I don’t mind the trade because it immediately upgrades our team and with the glut of young pitching and outfielders we have it’s not a huge loss… especially considering the apparently solid drafts we have had and are continuing to have.
Although, I was never as high on JJ as a lot of people. I think he’s a bullpen guy down the road.
Good trade.
Wow, major deal. Billfer rightfully points out that Renteria is on the wrong side of 30 (he’s actually 32), but he’s a quality all-around player and 32 really isn’t old. I think he’d be good in the 2, 3 or 6 spot in the lineup. They gave up a fair amount in JJ and Gorkys, but it’s a deal you have to make with few options available at short. Renteria was terrible in his year in Boston, I am hoping that was a media thing moreso than an American League thing, but we’ll see. He was really good the last two years in Atlanta (820 OPS), which is a similar ballpark to Comerica.
They essentially replaced Casey with Renteria, which is a decent upgrade. The lineup is even more right-handed now, so I wonder if there are other deals working to bring in a left-handed outfielder. They didn’t give up anything off the 25-man roster and made the lineup deeper. JJ strikes me as a middle-of-the-rotation guy at best, although Gorkys has drawn some rave reviews in the past. Hopefully Maybin pans out and Curtis figures out how to hit lefties.
Personally, I like this deal, as something had to be done, but I don’t love it. Still have to fix the pitching issues and LF. But two holes (C and SS) are filled.
It will take a while to digest this one. This is a really bold trade that we’ll be talking about for years. It will help them short term but could hurt a lot later. I was initially shocked by how much they gave up but the more I look at the age of their line-up, the more I realize that they need to win now. And now they REALLY need to win now or this trade will look bad.
Lee
What will happen to Casey?
I checked Renteria’s defensive stats, and he graded a Range Factor of 4.14 and a Zone Rating of .800, which are essentially the same as Guillen (a hair below, if you insist). But Guillen made 27 errors last year, most of the throwing variety. Renteria made 24 the last two years combined, so he catches what he gets to and generally makes the play to the base. In all a very modest defensive upgrade oevr Guillen, if only for fewer 4-out innings.
By the way, I am aware that Polly hits second and Sheff hits third (from my earlier post), which means Renteria prolly hits in the 6-slot, which HOPEFULLY pushes Pudge into the 7 hole. If for no other reason than Pudge getting fewer ABs, this is a good trade.
A “win now” trade. Ilitch continues to put his money where his mouth is.
Renteria’s VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) was #30 in all of baseball last year. He replaces Casey in the lineup. He’s not an elite SS defensively but he is better and more durable than Guillen. Guillen will be an excellent 1B. Casey was about as mobile as a fire hydrant.
This is an EXCELLENT trade. Renteria is 32 but is only signed through 2009. He is a big upgrade right now, both offensively and defensively. They know his character. He had a bad year in ’06 but a great bounce back this year. He is likely to get on base at a .360 or .370 clip.
Both Jurrjens and Hernandez are good prospects. Neither is without questions and neither was a top prospect at their position. Jurrjens is good all-around but does not have a dominant pitch. He will likely have adjustments to make at the ML level. His ceiling is a #3 starter. Hernandez is very young and projects anywhere from Juan Pierre to Bobby Abreu depending on how much power and patience he develops. He’s more Pierre now. Detroit still has a boatload of young arms and OFs.
Depth in the organization makes this kind of deal possible. 2008 Tigers just got the jump on the field.
I was just running through the possible lineups in my head. I still think you leave Granderson/Polanco/Sheffield/Ordonez/Guillen alone. I say put Gar in the 6 hole, get a Left-handed LF ilke a Geoff Jenkins (whose name I’ve heard mentioned as a possibility which is why I use his name) in the 7 hole, put Pudge 8th and Inge 9th. That is pretty damn strong right there.
Mark in Chicago, thanks for posting his fielding stats.. I remember reading that his numbers were similar to Guillen in terms of range, but Gar has a cannon and is much more accurate at throwing, so I think it will be an upgrade, but a slight one.
Man, do we really have to wait until April for the season to start? This is going to be a LONG 6 months.
really bummed that they gave up those two guys but i think renteria was the best shortstop availible.
Renteria’s bad year (in Boston) was ’05. He had a solid ’06 and a good ’07. I’m cautiously optimistic.
One thing is for sure, though. Our organization also lost two of its most spectacular names…
Definitely a good trade considering the team is well stocked with young arms and in the outfield.
It’s not A-Rod…but it’s not Jack Wilson either.
The biggest concern with Renteria is health.
Wow.
I just realized an additional benefit to this trade:
More than likely, Juan Uribe is the opening day SS for the Sox next year.
I am liking this deal more and more.
I must admit being both a Braves and Tigers fan I absolutely love this trade. I have been saying for months now that a Renteria trade from Detroit. was almost expected(since the connections are there with Rent. and DD and JL) Anyways He is an offensive upgrade over Casey, a team player so chemistry in the clubhouse will be great and he is a slight defensive upgrade over Guillen at SS. So all in all a decent trade until maybe we can get one of our SS prospects in at ’10 or ’11. Renteria will come cheap this year and a possible option in ’09 at 11 million if we want to pick it up. And even though we have gotten older there is much more experience(especially playoff experience) from this trade. I don’t think its a win now trade because of what we gave up.
We did gave up a great CF and a nice descent SP for Renteria. I will be the first one to say I was saddened that JJ is gone. I loved his style of pitching and was a great Detroit farm story and a farm pitcher that helped us down the stretch. But we have Miller and Porcello on the way. And Nate, Verlander and Bondo at the helm, It will be a awesome rotation in the future 2 or 3 years down the road. And as for Gorkys his involvement was also a sad departure as he is graded as #20 CF prospects. But we are stocked with Maggs being here for 4 more years, Granderson cemented to CF and Maybin most likely going to LF soon Gorkys was the odd man out. He was the furthest from ML level but he was at a position of depth in the organization and therefore expendable.
Overall it was a great trade and the need it now trade for Detroit and a Farm system replenishment for the Braves, will work now and especially in the near future. But for now Tigers did the right thing and now we need an upgrade for LF and add a SP. Great job by the front office brass on this one. Good Job, DD and Frak Wren of the Braves.
*PS- Not sure if the trade would have went through if JS did the trade from the Braves end.*
Really good trade for both teams. What was mentioned above, this is a tradeoff esentially Renteria for Casey. I’ll take Renteria. He is going to be huge hitting doubles in the gap in the 6th slot which is a good spot for him. Gorkys is still at least 3 years away and Jair falls under the you have to give a good player to get a good player.
I don’t think that DD is done yet, there has to be some kind of left handed outfield/backup first base bat move. Jenkins on the cheap would be a good pickup. and agreed, March 31st cannot come soon enough.
And this gets the Tigs out of the A-Rod tornado.
I love that DD always gets things done sooner rather than later.
Only 4 months til Spring Training!
Man, I don’t know. This is one of those trades which make me uneasy, probably meaning each side got what they wanted.
I thought the same thing about the Sheffield for Sanchez/Whelan/Claggert trade, though and look how that worked out. I hated to see Maroth go, and look where he is now. I think I’ll trust in DD instead. I certainly never felt that way about Randy Smith, so DD’s earned my trust.
Still, ouch.
Wow, I watched Renteria play every day for the Red Sox a few years back. He was a nightmare.
I think this is an absolutely horrible trade.
Well……….. I guess Me- Rod … I mean A-Rod is out jk.
I like the looks of this trade. In order to get a upper level player it is expected to give something up. We have decent prospects on the way and we got cash with this deal to spend in the Free Agent market. As long as we keep stocking the farm, i do not see where this will hurt us. Yes its always coulda, shoulda, but hey GUYS DD was on this and made the deal.
What else was out there? Jack Wilson, nice enough guy but not what we were looking for.
We all want action and this is what action is. I like the risk – reward that we gave up and got.
Steve
PS I will be able to catch a game or two at Lakeland this spring and Im with Jonathon Cant get to 3/31 soon enough
Kinda funny, a lot of fans on here uneasy about the trade and just went to a Braves blog where they aren’t too happy about it either!
I like the trade on the surface. I understand that Renteria is well liked in the clubhouse and known as a team player. I think Lelands big decision is where you put him in the order.
My concern is Sheffs health and will he be able to hit with power.
What do we do in left field.
The signing of Renteria puts an end to my fantasy of signing A-Rod. Oh well.
I’m guessing that a free agent or two may be coming our way. I don’t see giving up anymore of our prospects.
Good point Joey, that this keeps all the rumors out of the way of the team because I had already heard earlier today that maybe Inge would be moved or to another position because of A-Rod. Why wait to get things done when maybe Atlanta makes another move. This was the major move that the team needed to make besides Rogers and Jones. The team is way ahead of others and do not have to make a bad move now.
I love the deal. JJ is a fourth starter maybe third. Doesn’t have a great fastball or any other pitches. He relies too much on control and command. Also, the arm troubles were scary this soon and this young. The only thing that was nice was he seemed to show alot of poise so early.
Im more sad about losing Gorkys but in reality he’s not going to be ready for 3-5 years and by then the veterens here will be gone..
Our window is now and it’s ring or bust. Atleast we didn’t trade Cameron Winston Churchill Maybin for relief. Right?
Oh boy reading the comments page for this at ESPN is making my head hurt.
baseball reference lists Renteria most similar player by age as Trammel…just sayin ha
Thanks for sharing this blog. The Tigers win short term on this, it depends on how the prospects play out. Renteria is a class act and a winner. Detroit fans should welcome him with open arms.
Ugly.
Yeah, we coulda gotten Eric Gagne for Maybin – that would have worked out awesome!!
Not a fan of this deal. Obviously, they would have to part with someone, but now we have two holes in the rotation and we just lost another top OF prospect. Renteria will have to have career years while in Detroit to make this deal worthwhile, and a WS title. Other then that, we have just lost a lot in this organization. Not much depth, no matter what you think of this draft class, to afford any injuries at the majors or the minors.
I would rather have Guillen at SS still, then Renteria for the price we paid.
With or without Renteria this team had to win now. It’s an old team. And what did we give up? A kid who’s still another full year away from helping the team long term pitching wise — and at best he’s a No. 3 starter. And we gave up a toolsy CF prospect that COULD be good or could be Endy Chavez. We gave up the most risky prospect we have in our system and a pitcher who projects to be a good but not great pitcher for an all-star shortstop that is a tick below Guillen offensively, but better then him defensively.
When I broke down potential SS’s, Renteria came in as the 2nd best option behind Miguel Tejada. I would have actually preferred Jack Wilson, as he’s younger and a bit cheaper, but honestly I don’t think we gave up a lot.
And them being two of the top 4 prospects in our system be damned. One is risky and far from being a sure thing, and the other is a solid pitcher. That speaks more about the lack of depth in our system then it does for their ranking as prospects.
I think we actually got the better of the deal.
The Red Sox paid up to $11 Million of Renteria’s contract. That’s probably why money is changing hands:
Boston paying up to $11M of $29M remaining on Renteria’s contract ($8M in salary 2006-08, plus $3M buyout if 2009 option is declined)
Apparently Buster Olney still thinks the Tigers will end up with A-Rod.
Of course that means moving Brandon Inge…
One scary thought…Renteria is 16th on the active list for GIDP. And this is a list headed by graybeards like Julio Franco and Mike Piazza.
Then again, Derek Jeter is only eight spots behind Renteria.
Bares watching:
Full list here
Two excellent baseball prospectus articles on the deal, both free:
http://baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=648
http://baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=646
Also, this couldn’t be further from a doyle alexander situation: we got doyle alexader for 8 weeks, we’ll have renteria for 2 years at below market rates. As one of the BP articles mentions, if ER was a free agent, it would cost us 15 mil/yr to get him. Plus we’ll get draft picks when he leaves after 2009. we will absolutley pick up his 2009 option.
And before I forget, the doyle alexander deal was the RIGHT MOVE for the tigers in 1987: getting alexander made them the best team in baseball that year, without him they don’t make the playoffs and you have to take your shots. Flags fly forever and all that. Plus is there any tiger team that would have made the playoffs with smoltz between say 1989 and 2005? Nope, not one. 2006 is the first and only year smoltz could have pushed us over the top.
Prospects like gorkys tend to be overrated, because of the risk that they never put it together well enough to make the bigs. Someone said gorkys was either juan pierre or bobby abreu; in reality he’s much much much more likely to wind up as a juan encarnacion, roger cedeno, brian hunter or chad curtis. Or a nobody.
Remember the last time we dealt a highly regarded pitching prospect with arm problems – humberto sanchez – that worked out ok, sanchez had TJ surgery last year (and is still fat). I liked jurjens, sure, but this this move helps us compete for playoff position in 08 and 09, that much should make the trade worth it. And if Illitch keeps spending bucks on draft picks, we’ll be fine on the farm. Trust DD, he is wise and benevolent.
Pudge is second and Sheff is eight.
I thought this was a truly remarkable statement in Baseball Prospectus in nailing the dilemma of whether Motown is a big market or not:
Detroit is a market that appears to be quite sensitive to team quality, with attendance having ranged from 1.4 million all the way up to 3.0 million over the course of the past five years.
I need to digest this. I know I was advocating dealing prospects alll summer, but my initial gut reaction was this trade comes about four months too late and the team seems on the precipice of getting too old. Maybe I’ve got too many Red Sox friends who cursed him all of 05. I’ve said it before, the real window for this team was 06 and 07 when Dombrowski and us fans were mouthing the words to the Carpenters’ ‘We’ve Only Just Begun.’ We just didn’t realize the window was right in front of us at the time. Good or bad, this trade makes 08 the last year of said window. You can talk about Zoom, Bonderman, and Verlander all you want, this team is gonna be ancient come 09.
Lee – totally agree
trading from our two spots of “depth”
we have a window lineup wise with Guillen, Polanco, Ordonez, Shef, and now Rentaria (along with Pudge)
But then again, if they keep getting steals in the draft this might not be so bad, he def is an upgrade defensively over Guillen at SS and offensively as far as taking Casey’s spot in the lineup.
Still he is older, not a great fielder and not a great hitter, but should be solid.
David I must say, like I did earlier that this a great trade for both teams(being a fan of both hints at bias). Anyways I don’t get why you say he’s not great offensively. Hitting .300+ two seasons and hitting 10+ homeruns is above average for a shortstop. Now he is getting old but we are gettting him in his prime years and will have him only til ’09. We are getting older but we are also getting better hitting(better then Casey by far), fielding(better then Guillen), and experience for the postseason. He is a tools player, and will help this team. We shopped two players that were in depths in our organization for a top notch Future FA $15 Million+ player for two top organization prospects. Give em to get em as the saying goes.
As for you guys saying its a win now move. I doubt it we will be here for years to come, but something has to change our top 1-3 picks in the Amateur Draft(’08-’09) has to be other positions besides OF and Pitching so we dont get too old like the Yanks. We will be competing for at least 5-6 years in the future. We are here to stay folks and this move just shows how genius DD is.
GO Tigers ’08!!! 4 Months cant wait!!!
Pitching is not just about stuff. Greg Maddux never had stuff. Like Maddux, JJ could pitch. He was mentally at least five years ahead of both Bonderman and Miller. While we wait for those two to “harness their substantial talents,” JJ will be winning 15+ games per year for the next ten years. This is a bad trade. JJ should never have been traded.
Palmcroft,
I, like you, loved JJ last year. The way he would get outs, strikeouts(finally in the Minn game), and the way he worked his pitch count, he was set up to be a 10+ game winner here. But with Miller and Porcello soon to come up we are in a surplus of pitching and the Braves liked him we needed to fill SS and we did with JJ being probably the centerpeice. Gorkys solidified the trade with him being the odd man out with Maggs, Granderson, and Maybin set for the outfield the next 3-4 years with 1-2 years of a FA/Traded LF in the mix. JJ was great but was expendable and was our best trade bait. We will probably bring up Tata for next season for our #5 starter while Miller works out his problems and his endurance issues. I loved JJ he was awesome and my Tiger for the last 2 months because of how he pitched but we needed a Top notch SS and Wilson, Uribe or Eckstein wasn’t it and we weren’t going to move Inge for KRod.
72 or fewer RBIS last four years – not great
Even with last year his BA over the last 4 is .295 – not great, but good
about 11hrs/year – not great, OK better than Casey (but better than Shelton – I won’t let him die)
he isn’t bad at all but he isn’t like going to be a huge upgrade over Casey – the one thing I think he will add significantly is the speed
Many forget that even though Casey had no Power or Speed, he was right behind Polanco at being able to make contact and was tops in the Major Leagues – something of worth, but then again Rentaria is near the top of the GIDP so he must make quite a bit of contact also plus the BA
he looks to be a poor-man’s Guillen (who I love – my second favorite player)
I think he is good defensively and good offensively – he should complement our team nicely – but is not OC or Jeter, or Tejada or Young… well thats 4 American League SS I can name that I think are better… so maybe he isn’t that bad especially with Inge, Polanco Guillen and Pudge in the IF – solid everywhere
Pudges D next year I’m guessing will be a Bish
Guillen at 1st – A or A- from what I’ve seen
Polanco – B to B+ (he doesn’t have range, I know he didn’t make an error)
Rentaria – I’m guessing by this http://www.tangotiger.net/scouting/sim2007_5602.html it will be a B
Inge – A to A+ (my opinion)
heck lets do OF while we are at it
Ordonez – C+ (which is what I would have given him last year)
Granderson – solid A
LF??? Raburn? Thames? FA?
now we need to spend some money on Rogers and a Closer and pen
But the BIGGEST factor on how the TIGERS WILL DO in ’08 is – JEREMY BONDERMAN
You do realize he’s a No. 2 batter almost exclusively (with some trips to 3) and RBIs are one of the most lineup dependent statistics you can find, right? And as Lee showed us at Tiger Tales, his runs created per game was higher than any regular AL short stop. On top of it, he plays pretty good defense, unlike Mr. Jeter.
Guillen+Renteria is better than guillen+Casey. The team is better today than it was yesterday.
Yea but I wasn’t comparing Jeter’s fielding to his…
Also yea, he had a good year which is what is being compared to everyone else on Lee’s site
Plus he was in the NL and is used to their pitchers – his transition to the BoSox wasn’t so successful – could be Boston but I duno…
Yea I agree they are better off today than yesterday, but like the Shef deal I didn’t really like this one b/c we gave up 2 very young and talented prospects for an older player
I’m sure he’ll help out in ’08 and ’09(assuming we pick up the option)
Its up to Jair and Gorkeys to flail and prove me and I’m sure others wrong. Or Rentaria to be invaluable and help us get into the playoffs.
I don’t think we will really know who won in this trade for another 10 years or so.
RBI’s are probably the absolute worst stat to judge a hitter.
Calling JJ the next Greg Maddux is a bit pre mature too.
I think we got a steal in this deal. The Braves could have held out for a king’s ransom after Renteria’s best year in the last few.
Again, we gave up a mid-level pitching prospect and an incredibly toolsy, raw, and risky prospect that even if he fulfills his potential, is an all-star OFer. That trade does not sit out of line with me in the least and I honestly think we got a discount of some sort. Isn’t Boston still on the hook for a few million of Renteria’s contract, as well? If so, it’s even better.
And even at his 2-ish wins per year (I got 2.2 when I broke down the numbers a month or two ago), this team is better offensively and defensively then it was. We will score less runs then we did last year, but we’ll give up less. Add in a full year of Kenny Rogers (if he resigns) and a full year of a hopefully healthy bullpen and an improved defense, you’ve got just what you need to counter-balance the offensive regression that’ll occur in 2008.
TypeA compensation pick in a couple years helps too.
Fick and Stairs filed for FA, whoohooo!
Bill,
I’m kind of with you on this trade. Renteria is an upgrade in the lineup and in the field. I just didn’t like parting with Jurjens. Hernandez might turn out to be a good player, but I think the Tigers are in good shape in the outfield for quite awhile. Jurjens, though, I think has the chance to be a very good pitcher.
The Tigers had to fill the hole, though, and I think this makes sense. Renteria is clearly better than Jack Wilson and I wouldn’t touch A-Rod with a 10-foot pole.
The real key to the Tigers in 2008, in my opinion, is Bonderman. He must put this mental block or whatever it is in the past. He needs to be solid for an entire season and win 16-18 games.
CAN WE GET FRANCISCO CORDERO?!!?!
Trading for Renteria is a pleasant surprise.Inasmuch as we’re hosting a Marlins reunion,why not reuniting the DP combination of Castillo&Renteria,and move Polanco to third?
Castillo is 32,made 5.75M while hitting .301 with an OBP of .362 and 19 SB and won his third Gold Glove as recently as 2005.
Not a lot of power in that infield,but all .300 hitters with good gloves.
I don’t like the trade. I didn’t like the trade last year either for whatever that’s worth.
And it isn’t just what we gave up, but also what we’ve refused to move on.
Unless this staff becomes truly dominant, I don’t think we have a chance in the central next season.
I have no faith in Sheffield’s healthy (physicalor mental) return. Ordonez is gonna fall off considerably. Pudge gets worse. We still don’t have a left fielder. No left handed presence in the lineup. Inge is still an everyday player.
Again, the difference between Renteria and Casey doesn’t seem great enough to make up for what I believe is going to be a fall-off offensively. And then to give up a solid 4th guy for him seems stupid…especially when I look at a staff that has so many questions coming off a pretty disappointing 2007 season. I mean wouldn’t you like to know there is someone other than Nate and Miller who has the potential to fill out the bottom part of the rotation? Is Bonderman going to bring his potential to bear this season? I would prefer leaving ourselves more starting-pitching options heading into next season. I can’t just discount Jair’s value as a potential starting pitcher no matter where he falls in the rotation.
Hernandez isn’t as big a concern for me, but Jair was ready to help this club now. It isn’t a question of hanging on to him for some future consideration.
I think if the goal is to win next season, there are better options out that don’t require giving up a young player who can contribute.
Has everyone given up on Andrew Miller already? The chances of him contributing just as well as JJ next year are equal.
Is Renteria a clubhouse leader? We need one in a bad way.
Joey, I think the difference between Casey and Renteria offensively is bigger than you might think. Renteria has slugged 50-60 points higher than Casey over the last two seasons.
And I’ll say this one more time: I think moving Guillen to first base was necessary to save his knees. We were going to need a shortstop under any scenario. This is the one we wanted.
Jenkins officially available:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3086562
Joey I understand your arguements. But I must say that Renteria will make a bigger impact then many people think. Renteria’s slugging like Kyle said 50-70 pts better then Casey. Had almost 10 more HR then Casey. has nearly a .300 career avg. and around 10-12 more RBIs then Casey. Plus he is clutch. That will drive in more RBIs with Sheff, Maggs, and Guillen hitting in front of him. True we gave up someone to impact next season but what I think concerned DD on JJ is his ailing shoulder. With that we don’t need more injury riddin seasons especially in the pitching dept. Plus his trade value was super high right now and we needed a all star calliber SS that Guillen trusts. Thats why we made the move, JJ actually now that i thought about it overnight was a add-on to the main part of the trade for Gorkys.
To answer your question Ron, Renteria was a big clubhouse guy last season for the Braves(being a braves fan you know these things haha). He also mentored the rookies and younger players, That will help Santiago, and the new SS rookies in the ’09 campaign as we get ready for the grooming of a new SS.
Again a great deal DD did. Cant wait to see good ‘ol Renteria in the old english D.
Maybe some of you guys should post on a braves blog and make them feel better about potential future HOF’ers*, JJ and Gorkys, alot seem to think the Tigs robbed them on this deal!
* š
Well I certainly hope you guys are right.
Joey the K, I’ll definitely check out the blogs. Keep in mind however that most those guys posting probably don’t know a damn thing about either Jair or Gorkys.
Kyle, I really do agree that something had to be done with Guillen. I love the guy, but he’s just been driving me nuts at short for the past 2 seasons.
Still I’m not convinced that he couldn’t have been moved over the 3rd. I just don’t like the idea of slotting him into first base before the season even ends when there’s a guy like Teixeira on the market. He is such a perfect fit for our team! Play him at first, guillen at 3rd and find yourself a slick fielder to man short. Maybe even Inge.
I like that lineup better and you don’t lose prospects. Obviously it’s a lot more dough, so it’s a cost benefit sort of scenario, but I’m taking the win at all cost approach here. Plus you can’t discount the monetary value of prospects.
Your point about Guillen’s knees maybe what precluded such a move though. Although I’m pretty certain it’s about the money.
You don’t lose prospects getting Teixeira? What? Tex would have costed us at least 3 of our top 5 prospects + an MLB ready arm or fielder. So picture: Jurrjens, Maybin and/or Gorkys + another MLB ready player. And that would have been for half a year less then we’re going to have Renteria because as a Boras Client, Teixeira isn’t signing an extension until he tests the FA market to get his price determined.
We now have an offensively average 1st baseman, and above average SS offensively who is still average defensively (even with his limited range, he still was middle of the pack in plays made out of his defensive zone) and he comes in at nearly $7-10 million BELOW market value.
All while giving up a middle of the rotation pitching prospect and a high risk/high reward outfielder.
Again, couple that with a full year of Kenny Rogers who had a pretty fluky injury and until last year had thrown 190+ Innings 8 out of the last 9 years, a healthy Bonderman elbow that even with his ‘first inning mental block’ was one of the 8 best pitchers in the game the first 3 months of the year (before the elbow started hurting) and a bullpen that is completely healthy. And, say we were to spring for Francisco Cordero, that would upgrade that.
With this lineup now, I think we’ll score around 800-815 runs (this is without any actual calculation, just rough estimates) and a healthy staff and bullpen we could give up in the neighborhood of 690-705-ish.
So 800 RS, 690 RA = 93 wins using the pythagorean record (runs score squared divided by runs allowed squared plus runs scored squared).
815 RS, 705 RA = 93 wins.
Or, the low end runs scored I gave (800) and high end runs allowed I gave (705) equals a potential 91 win season. Will that be enough for a division title? Very possible. Cleveland scored 811 runs last year and gave up 704 and their pythagorean record was 91-71 and on that team there’s not a ton to really improve on — especially offensively.
Mike R.,
I agree with the analysis about obtaining Tex, but in what way is Gorkys “high risk”? He’s on a minor league contract! He isn’t clamoring to be called up. He may not pan out, but there was minimal risk in seeing how he develops. The reward might be high, and it might not, but he’s certainly low risk.
As for JJ, I think everyone is overstating that he’s “only a middle of the rotation” guy. He pitched as well as a middle-of-the-rotation guy … as a 20 year old. I understand there’s the surprise factor of hitters having never faced him, but he’s also going to grow and develop more/better secondary pitches. I think everyone is underestimating his upside.
Gorkys is a risk because of what you give up by not trading him. Would you rather have Renteria, a proven big leaguer or take a chance that Gorkys turns into a viable MLB player.
There’s no risk in letting him develop, but if you have the opportunity to move him for a proven player, it would be risky to hold on to him.
Joey C –
You have some valid concerns about having one less option in the rotation and offensive fall off from some overachievers last year, and if you don’t like the Renteria upgrade, that’s fine too.
But in terms of your other complaints about left field, and a left handed bat, and Brandon Inge, and a lack of pitchers…The World Series ended less than 48 hours ago. It is another 14 days until teams can sign free agents. It’s not until December 1st until teams have to decide on whether or not to offer arbitration. The winter meetings aren’t until the first week of December. Spring Training is still almost 4 months away. I think there is a little time for some of those other issues to be addressed.
I don’t know if they will be, and I’ll be disappointed if Timo Perez is on the roster. But I’m willing to let the offseason play itself out.
Does anyone think that the move to 1B will actually improve Guillen’s offensive numbers? Less wear on his body, etc.? If so, that’s an important aspect of this move to consider…
I mean high risk/high reward in the fact that he’s extremely raw and those types of kids come around every year. The ones with all the tools to be great but are a long ways from putting them together. Not high risk in letting him develop but that those are kids who normally more prone to not amounting to their “tools”.
That seemed like a jumbled explanation but I hope that made sense.
That..just..things just don’t work like that.
Jeff M. I mistakenly believed Teixeira was now a free agent. He’s under contract till 08. So yeah, obviously he would cost us a lot more than we just gave up to land Renteria.
I do agree that Gorky’s is high-risk in the way you were using the term. Like I wrote though, my point is based mainly on losing a guy (jj) that I think could prove useful in helping this team achieve something special within the short window I think most of us agree this team has to win a championship.
That being said, and my factual mistake being recognized, I like this trade a quite a bit more now…
But I don’t see this team through as rosy a lens as you do. The fluky injury you talk about was on a 43 year old pitcher who at some point is gonna perform like one would expect an old man to perform; our disagreement regarding Bonderman goes back to the middle of this past season; I don’t have faith in Robertson or the still young, and rushed Miller to round out the rotation; and even with Renteria, I foresee a falloff in run production–your rough estimates notwithstanding.
I certainly hope that you’re right and the Tigs can crank out 90+ wins and challenge for the division till the end of the season.
And I’ll wait to see how this season pans out before I really let myself get really riled up.
Hey, I wonder why Maybin’s name wasn’t bandied around as trade bait? Was it because he is still a Dombrowski untouchable or is it because he became ‘untouchable’ in the Indian caste meaning of the word because he sucked so bad in his September audition that his stock plummeted? Seriously, if we weren’t Tigers fans we would have watched him play in September and wondered if baseball wasn’t his second sport a la Deion Sanders.
Wow. Jeff M?
Sorry Mike R.
I’m basically in a coma most of the time.
Stephen,
Thanks for another hilarious comment!
I’m definitely donning the rosy colored glasses right now because of that deal and, like christmas, there is a shiny new toy that gets my hopes up. Realistically and objectively, this is probably around a 88 win team.
Or, like rational people, we’d see that a 20 year old was rushed to the show and thrust into a pennant race, put in to play a position he’s never played in his life and then not getting the AB’s needed to get comfortable. But, you know, that’s just me. š
Honestly, and Billfer and minor league blogger Matt in Toledo can attest to this, I’m as skeptical on Maybin as anyone and concerned about his production as he moves through the minors (he’s got a Jason Tyner like GB rate thus far. In a word: Yikes!), but anyone judging him off of what he did in his time in Detroit would be absolutely insane.
The Tigers will win more than 95 games this year…
Even with Liriano and Mauer playing full seasons
Even with the Royals growing a year older
Even with the Indians and their staff
We had everything go wrong as far as pitching – the chance that it happens two years in a row is very very poor.
Plus the fact that the Indians will be facing what we faced this last year.
I will say it again and again, it all comes down to Jeremy Bonderman (and Nate)
Get some rest guys cya in the spring!
Hopefully Kenny comes back too… he is invaluable to our team.
I like the shiny new toy comment. Realistically, it could be a wash. But I think management is doing all they can to put the best team possible out on the field. Renteria can help, and is better than Santiago or anyone else who is realistically available. He definitely comes at a cost. Gorkys has potential, but may never get a chance in the outfield. JJ looked pretty good, but they may be concerned about the shoulder.
I wonder if Kenny is close to signing. That could explain the willingness to trade JJ and let Kenny hold down the fort as a starter until Miller is ready. It may be that Kenny has said he will return, but it’s just a matter of agreeing on a dollar amount. Could also mean they are comfortable with Tata or Miller as #5 starter.
I really would like to see Jenkins batting 6th or 7th. I think there’s a good chance we can get him. Lefty at left field with some power. Can back up 1b. Gives us flexibility if Sheffield doesn’t return well or we can trade Thames. Played on a bad team a long time until just recently (sounds like some other guys we know and love). But I am concerned we may have to settle for Thames/Raburn in LF.
Has Renteria batted leadoff recently? Could he lead off against lefties and we drop Grandy lower in the order? Just a thought. At least he won’t clog up the basepaths like Casey.
Regarding offense: No way Maggs and Placido can put up the numbers they did this year. Another similar year from Granderson would be nice and is a realistic hope. Renteria is an upgrade from Casey, although not huge. I am hopeful that Inge can make a slight improvement (can’t get to much worse) in making contact and that Pudge will not get worse at the plate, maybe even take a few walks?? I am also hoping, as someone mentioned, that the move to first will make Guillen even a great force at the plate. It should save on his knees and help him to concentrate on hitting while playing a less demanding position.
I am a little excited about infield defense. I think we have good range at the corners. Guillen’s range is poor for a shortstop, but good for a first basemen. And although Renteria and Polanco won’t get to everything, but they won’t make many mistakes either, and the good range at the corners will cover for them. With that being said, bring back a ground-ball pitcher like Kenny.
My God, we have a good team…Magglio, Carlos, Placido, Granderson, Pudge, Renteria, Sheff, Inge…well, Thames, Raburn (I hope), Timo (I know Billfer doesn’t want him, but the guy can hit) Verlander, Bonderman, Zoom, Jair…whoops he’s gone now. I could care less about Geoff Jenkins (our in-house guys can do just as well IMHO). Still our pitching has a few holes. But overall, it sounds pretty impressive and talented.
Whoa man. WHOA. There is no logic here. Take that elsewhere! š
Mike, I agree to a certain point.
I just watched him play and if someone had told me he was a high school player playing for the Dutch National Baseball Team because one of his great uncles was Dutch I would have believed him.
I just don’t think I’ve ever seen a professional athlete look more unnatural at the major league level. Check that, I saw Jared Lorentzen, the NY Giants 300 pound backup QB, play a few downs and he looked like he had never encountered the oblong sphere before.
I can be an idiot so what do i know? But someone like Andrew Miller–who sucked his second half–or Alex Gordon–who batted .160 for the first two months– both looked clueless but still seemed like they were playing a game where they were acutely familiar with the basics.
Maybe it’s just C-Bin’s website that annoyed me. At any case, he seems at least 2 years away.
While I think it was a good trade, I keep hoping in the back of my mind that somehow the Braves screw it up on their end and JJ gets put on waivers and we claim him back. Didn’t that happen with Seattle and Santiago?
I have an opinion about Cam but it’s not based on facts or sabermetrics. Cam grew up in the deep South where life runs along at a slower pace. He’s even expressed his feelings that everything feels so fast since he came up from the minors. I have friends who grew up in small southern towns and while they have found success here in the north, they still talk slower, are more polite and gracious…what some of us know as Southern charm. Cam isn’t Grandy and probably won’t develop as fast. That’s just my opinion. You guys are probably laughing at me….I know.
also granderson went to college – more polished and didn’t have as many expectations placed on him – he wasn’t a first rounder
No Kathy, actually astute observation! I have relatives down South and it’s true, life moves at a different pace. Many a player–white, black, latino–has been oft-stereotyped as lazy/emotionless because that’s their roots; whether it be stoic, slow-moving, or non-smiling.
I recently read an interview with Sadarahu Oh where he talked about why he played with so little emotion: when he was in high school he tossed his glove in celebration and this shamed his family and his culture. So, he never smiled when he played. Maybe Maybin just has that ‘just moseying along’ gait of the South. I live in NYC where everything moves too fast and we are all too quick to judge..
THe south…bothers me.
It’s easy to see in retrospect that neither Maybin or Miller belonged the the majors last season.I fault the professionals in the Tiger’s organization who are paid to know these things for rushing the two of them.
Jurrjens will probably have a fairly long career (barring injury) as a 3rd or 4th starter.Trading him for Renteria fills the void at SS left by Guillen’s move and somewhat compensates for the inevitable decline in offensive performance we’re likely to see from Ordonez (although it’s reasonable to assume Renteria won’t have the year he had in 2007 as well).This trade was necessary for us to sustain last years level of offensive production.
A cautionary note,in case you’re so inclined,David.Never bet with your heart.For quite some time,I’ve been fattening my wallet with easy money from Lion’s fans who were convinced by hopes and hype the team was better than it actually was.This was the first year I’ve been able to exploit Tiger fans who expected it was automatic we’d repeat the success of 2006 when everything that possibly could went right.As it stands now,this team will be good for another 88-90(max) wins,not 95.
Friends from the south,you say.That would explain why men kissing 15 year old girls is not out of the ordinary in your life.However,Granderson did not develop ‘fast’.He’s 26 years old.Phenoms like Cabrera,Pujols,and Alex Rodriguez developed ‘fast’.
BobS, let’s get something straight. Kissing 15 year olds is not out of the ordinary for the majority of teenagers today but I wasn’t talking about grown men. I was talking about any male including 16 or 17 year olds who could be convicted of a criminal act. Look around your block, and in your own family, there’s plenty of guys guilty of that “crime” and didn’t get caught.
Grandy is one of the fastest developing MLB centerfielders in the game. Will Cam develop the defensive skills and offensive power that Grandy has with 2 years under his belt in the majors? I opined that he wouldn’t. Hope I’m wrong!
Kathy,let’s get something straight.In a comment responding to one of my own you directed a question to me (not “the majority of teenagers today”) asking “Ever kiss a girl who was 15?” and it’s disingenous to pretend otherwise.There were no qualifiers regarding 16 year olds on my block or in my family.Implicit in your comment was the ubiquity of similar behavior among adult men on your block or in your family.Good to hear that’s not the case.
To be honest BobS, I really don’t want to discuss this topic again. It all started with comments regarding C-Mo and me stating that for the most part, most of us just don’t get caught commiting crimes ie. kissing 15 year old girls, driving while intoxicated, smoking a little weed in our college days. All illegal things that perhaps you never did. Nevertheless, the majority of people have done at some point in their lives….meaning no ones perfect. We all sin. I’m done with this conversation.
Baseball, baseball, baseball. Go Tigers!!!!
First of all, I’m a huge Jared Lorenzen fan (and I hate the NFL) simply because I remember him at the University of Kentucky and seeing a QB wear 22 and be 300 pounds fascinated me. But, he’s definitely not someone I’d want backing up my starting QB and I haven’t seen him play since college, so I’ll take your word for it. But, he’s one of my guys that aren’t very good but you love them just because type guys.
As for Maybin, his website is off-putting and I wish I hadn’t encountered it. Miller and Gordon also got a 3/4ths of a year and a full year respectively to play — and play everyday.
Miller looked tentative and, well, young last year when we brought him up in 2006 after 5 minor league innings. We agree that Maybin’s a ways away and if he’s in Detroit before September, it’s a flat out mistake unless we lose 4-6 outfielders to broken legs.
Wow how is it in a Tigers Blog we are talking about criminal acts of kissing 15 year old girls? If you want to keep that crap going take it somewhere else. This is a blog for Tigers fans who have questions and opinions worth hearing and discussing.