Monthly Archives: November 2007

2007 Season, Defense

Two Tigers win Gold Gloves, but not the right two

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Ivan Rodriguez and Placido Polanco were honored today as MLB announced the Gold Glove winners. For Pudge it was his 13th while it was Polanco’s first. But were they the most deserving Tigers? Rob Neyer took a look at the inherent biases or trends in the voting. A couple of these helped the Tigers (previous winner, fielding percentage, offensive contribution), and a couple hurt the Tigers.

Pudge Rodriguez

We’ll start with Pudge Rodriguez who saw his caught stealing rate drop to 30.9%. That was still a little above average in 2007 when base stealers in the AL were successful 73.2% of the time, but hardly Gold Glove worthy. Kenji Johjima gunned down 46.5% of would be base stealers. Even dubious stats like passed balls didn’t favor Rodriguez as he was charged with 7 while Johjima was charged with 5 in 54 more innings. And that isn’t even inclusive of the numerous wild pitches which could have been scored either way. Then throw in 6 errors and the picture is bleak for Pudge who won the award entirely off his reputation.

Placido Polanco

Moving to Placido Polanco, his win was certainly defensible. While errors and fielding percentage is a flawed stat, making it though a season without an error is still a remarkable achievement. While the error that was charged to Polanco and later assigned to Marcus Thames is certainly debatable, it was the only instance that I can recall where the streak was helped by the scorer. Throw in Polanco’s .341 batting average and it is easy to see why he would garner votes. But in looking at other metrics he lagged his peers.

Looking at +/- in the The Bill James Handbook 2008, Polanco was a respectable +10. That trailed Aaron Hill (+22), Mark Ellis (+19), and Robinson Cano (+17) considerably. If you don’t like +/- those same 3 appear as the best (but in a different order) using UZR as well. Polanco rates a little better using Revised Zone Rating, but he still is sandwiched between Ellis and Hill and made over 100 fewer plays than Ellis and nearly 150 fewer plays than Hill.

I like Polanco and am happy to see him receive some recognition. But the evidence just doesn’t show him as the best fielding 2nd baseman in the AL.

Brandon Inge

Now it’s time to stir the pot with some Brandon Inge controversy. Adrian Beltre took home the hardware for third basemen this year. Beltre is an excellent defender so this isn’t a bad choice at all. The trouble is, as Neyer pointed out, the award was a year late. Beltre should have won it in 2006. This year Brandon Inge beat him in UZR (+12 versus +5). Inge also beat him in +/- as Brandon amassed a +22, second only to Pedro Feliz. Nick Punto was next closest in the AL at +10 while Beltre was a solid +7. Inge was 2nd in the AL in RZR behind Mike Lowell and in total made 45 more plays on balls in his zone than any other AL third sacker. Beltre bests him only in plays on balls made out of his zone, 64 to 63. But even in fielding percentage where Inge typically gets dinged, he posted a .959 to Beltre’s .958.

Brandon Inge was deserving of the award this year, and it wasn’t a 1 year fluke. Looking at the 3 year +/- numbers only Albert Pujols, Chase Utley, Adam Everett, and Pedro Feliz have a better rate than Inge.

Curtis Granderson

This one is the hardest to figure. Granderson seemed to do many of the things that help you win gold gloves.

Solid offensive season? Check. He was top 10 in slugging, OPS, Runs, Total Bases, and Triples. Plus he had that whole quad-20 thing which was arbitrary, but still remarkable and attention gathering.
Winning team? Check. The Tigers were in contention all year and received plenty of attention.
Highlight plays? Check. His homer rob of Wily Mo Pena was the #2 web gem. Plus he had some high profile diving catches including a triple/run saving catch on Sunday night baseball and a game saving catch in an August pennant race tilt against the Indians.

Not that any of the above are legitimate reasons for winning, but they do seem to resonate well with voters.

As for his actual case, he had the highest RZR in the American League regardless of position.

Looking at +/- he was second only to Coco Crisp (also a deserving candidate) at +21 just behind Crisp’s +22. Gold Glove winner Ichiro was at +4 and other winners Grady Sizemore and Torii Hunter weren’t in the top 10. (the annual only lists the top ten and bottom 5 at each position.

Looking at UZR, Sizemore rates well at +26 leading AL centerfielders with Granderson second at +18 (Crisp and Dejesus tied for 3rd at +13). Meanwhile Ichiro was -14.

If you’re skeptical of the advanced metrics, that is understandable. When some players rate inconsistently across them it is hard to know where the truth lies. But Granderson rated at or near the top across the board, which is more than can be said for the other fielders except for Crisp.

I’m not overly upset with the results. The Gold Gloves have long been flawed awards. But when someone describes a player as a gold glover it is important to note whether they are using the generic term for a very good defender, or whether they are actually toting someone’s hardware. The former probably carries more weight even if the latter carries more prestige.

Links

links for 2007-11-06

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Links

links for 2007-11-05

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Uncategorized

Newsflash: Reporter hates bloggers

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Like this story?

Chris McCosky, the Detroit News writer covering the Pistons beat has decided to trot out the old “bloggers in the basement” bit. Normally I don’t respond to this type of drivel, and I don’t partake in mainstream media bashing because I generally respect the job that they do. It’s much easier for me to opine behind my laptop while the beat writers are out getting quotes. But this article is a complete joke.

Let’s step through McCosky’s assertions point by point:

But people, let’s not confuse what random fans and wanna-be pundits are tossing out there with legitimate reporting. The line is getting way too blurry now between Internet noise and actual journalism. It’s actually getting to the point now where some (too many) of the bloggers are using cyberspace to discredit the legitimate media.

Actually this a slam on everyone because McCosky feels that the general public with their dinosaur sized brains aren’t able to distinguish between what is reported by a major news gathering source and a blog. I take everything from a message board or blog with skepticism and I hope my readers would view the few times that I’m “reporting” news as the same. At the same time if you’ve been following my site for a while you know that I don’t report stuff that isn’t solid information. I’m wrong on my opinions and analysis all the time, but stuff I report as fact is fact.

Journalism employs trained professionals. We actually have to go to school for this stuff. We take our jobs seriously. There are rules and standards that we are beholden to. There are ethics involved. We actually talk to, in person, the people we write about. If we rip somebody in an article, you best be sure most of us will confront that person the next day and take whatever medicine we need to take.

With blogging and Web sites, it seems the hard work, standards, accountability, courage all of that is bypassed. Who needs to study this stuff, or attend games, or conduct interviews when you can just sit in your basement and clack out whatever comes through your head, right? If I rip somebody, or if I get something wrong, who cares? Nobody will see me.

I don’t doubt for a second that reporters take their jobs seriously, but many bloggers also take their sites seriously and do have ethics. But bloggers don’t have to confront the players/coaches/managers the next day. I’m sure that makes the job much more difficult and it compromises what gets reported and what doesn’t. It’s a tenuous relationship and one I wouldn’t be eager to pursue so I’m thankful for the beat writers who gather the info. An outsiders perspective isn’t clouded by having to maintain a working relationship with a player so the assessments can be more honest. So discrediting an analysis of a situation or being critical of a player because someone doesn’t encounter them the next day is garbage.

And why do I need to do an interview to analyze a strategy or a play or a performance? Sometimes the background is helpful and necessary, other times it isn’t.

A lot of times these bloggers use the work of legitimate reporters. They will lift facts and segments of stories and cut and paste them onto their blog. Rarely, if ever, though, do they bother to credit the source.

They will write something like, “I am hearing the Pistons are going to start Antonio McDyess this year.” Well, wonder where you “heard” that. It was reported in the darn newspaper. Yet, the same blogger will go out of their way to ridicule the source they stole from.

I can speak for myself and other Tigers bloggers when I say that this doesn’t happen. When I’m taking specific information from an article, I link to the article and that seems to be true of all the Tigers blogs that I frequent. At the same time, I can read a press release and I can listen in on a conference call like legitimate reporters and I don’t need to wait for a legitimate reporter to write the article so I can link to it.

Bloggers are having a field day speculating on how Joel Zumaya really injured his shoulder. Nobody believes a heavy box fell on him. So the Internet is rife with stories about how he fell off his dirt bike.

Yes, glad it is only the bloggers who are speculating. It’s not like another writer in McCosky’s own newspaper was also casting doubt on the situation. (hey look Chris, I’m citing my sources)

And what bloggers are having a field day speculating anyways? Now might be one of those times where a real reporter would cite his sources? Right Chris? The Tigers bloggers have been very careful not to report the dirt bike rumor. I didn’t mention it at all in my story. When a commenter brought it up, I provided a link to where the report originated (the comments section of legitimate news gathering agency ESPN.com) and cautioned the source. That actually seems to be considerably more responsible than what McCosky did in his piece today. Instead McCosky practices no journalistic principles when he incorrectly assigns the rumor to bloggers.

If I had to pick my biggest beef with this whole article is that it is hypocritical. McCosky slams blogging as a whole, only cushioning it with the this isn’t true of everyone crap. And yet he doesn’t bother to provide any sort of guidance to the reader in terms of the good blogs, or the bad blogs. Or which bloggers were running rampant with the motorbike rumor. Instead he assigns that crap to all of us. Which is why I want to make it clear I’m not slamming the mainstream media. I’m slamming this piece of drivel written by McCosky.

McCosky talks about how a real journalist would go out and gather facts and talk to the subjects – but he didn’t bother to do that in this case. I would have been happy to talk to him about my coverage of the Zumaya injury. I’m easy to get ahold of via email and the News has interviewed me in the past so I know they have my number. McCosky, practice what you preach.

I know, this isn’t reporting. It’s an opinion piece so do the rules apply? It’s hard to tell because it reads an awful lot like

what the clever dude in his pajamas is doing on his computer, down in his basement.

Bloggers just aren’t journalists

UPDATE: Thanks to all those who have sent emails, left comments, or opined on your own blogs. Below is a listing of sites with commentary or discussion about McCosky’s article:

2008 Season, Fan Experience

Tigers announce ticket prices & schedule

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The Detroit Tigers today announced new ticket prices and their full schedule. There were numerous price increases, but the increases were modest with no seat raising by more than $2. Still, many of the better value seats, such as the outfield box in both the lower and upper deck as well as the right field grandstand were all effected.

Lower Level Seats
On-Deck Circle 65
Tiger Den $62*
Infield Box $42*
Terrace 35
Outfield Box $32*
RF Grandstand $22*
Pavilion 15
Bleachers $12*
Kaline’s Corner 10
Upper Level Seats
Club Seats $27*
Upper Box $22*
Upper Box RF $22*
Upper Box LF $22*
Mezzanine 15
Upper Reserved 12
Sykline 5
SRO $15+

* – reflects $2 increase

The price increases aren’t enough to make you think “hey they’re going after A-Rod.” If you figure that half of the seats were effected, and the Tigers draw 3 million fans again next year, that’s a net increase in Ilitch’s wallet of all of $3 million.

As for the schedule, here is the full 2008 version.

Fan Experience, Tiger History

Visiting Tiger Stadium

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Tiger Stadium Dugout
Over the last couple weeks fans who purchased items in the Tiger Stadium auction were able to head down to the Michigan and Trumbull and pick up their items. There were some items that weren’t bid on, or discovered after the auction ended that were also available so I went to check it out. The items available didn’t tempt me, but the field was open and that was too much to resist.

I wandered out onto the centerfield grass and tried to soak the stadium in one last time. She wasn’t the same at all as the evening in 1999 when the Tigers brought all the greats back to roam the field one last time. We’ve all seen the pictures of paint peeling, rust, and other evidence of decay. Many of the seats had already been removed.

Still, I couldn’t help but get chills. I’d never been on the field at Tiger Stadium. Sure it was a mix of weeds and grass now, with the weeds winning, but it was still the same plot that so many baseball greats had roamed. I looked up into the stands to see what they saw while they were playing.

I looked up into the overhang in right field, that was warm with the glow of the setting sun and remembered right where I stood for the last game.

But the biggest thrill came when I was about to leave, and Dan, the guy who oversaw the auction came out and offered to take my picture in the home dugout. So I wandered across the infield and crossed over the warning track which is basically all mud at this point. I got to duck my head as I crept into the dugout and peered down the dark tunnel to the locker rooms. It was simply awesome.

I never knew if I’d want to see the stadium again. My last memories were so perfect. And yet I’m glad I went, that one more goose bump inducing time. Seeing it decaying made it a little easier for me to prepare for the wrecking ball.

Injuries

Joel Zumaya to miss half of 2008

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Joel Zumaya underwent shoulder surgery to repair an injury sustained while moving stuff in the fires.  The procedure was an AC joint reconstruction.  The Acromioclaviclular joint is the joint effected when you hear the term “separated shoulder.”  However this procedure isn’t one that is common amongst pitchers and Will Carroll notes that there aren’t any comps to draw upon.

I’ll have more tonight.

Notes from the conference call:

Dombrowski received the information Monday and talked to Joel on Tuesday. The fires were 2 miles away from his parents home and he was getting items from the attic and the box fell on his shoulder. It happened on Sunday and Sunday night Joel’s father called Kevin Rand to let him know what happened.

Dombrowski got the call that it was a serious situation about 10 minutes after the Renteria press conference ended.

There was no rotator cuff damage, but there is no way to know if he’ll make it back until he gets on the mound again. The doctor thinks he can come back, but there is no way to know until he starts throwing hard again.

Dombrowski is going into the year planning on Zumaya not being available. Right now the focus is on getting Todd Jones and Kenny Rogers back. If they can’t retain Jones they will be “aggressive” in pursuing someone to pitch at the back of the bullpen. The Tigers don’t’ view Fernando Rodney as a potential closer at this point.

Analysis

This stinks.

But beyond that, the Tigers need bullpen help. Duh. I really think the intention all along by the Tigers was to sign Todd Jones to be the transitional closer, but in the event that Jones didn’t want to come they would have gone after an established set up man. Now that changes things. Now it looks like they will be going after the established set up man regardless. As for the closer’s role, it is Jones if he wants it. Dombrowski said as much in today’s call. But if Jones doesn’t return I think the Tigers will jump into the Francisco Cordero/Mariano Rivera fray. That’s what I take away from them being “aggressive.”

Of course this has other implications as well. Instead of the team needing to spend $6 million or so to shore up the bullpen for this coming season, a move for one of the premier closers and a set up guy more than doubles that cost. What impact this has on acquiring a left fielder or starter beyond Kenny Rogers hasn’t been determined yet. It also means that the Tigers stand a good chance of losing their first round draft pick because both Rivera and Cordero are Type A free agents.

MLB Trade Rumors compiled the following list of relievers, their age, and their ranking (A means losing a first round draft pick)

Closers
Armando Benitez (35)
Joe Borowski (37) – $4MM club option for ’08 – Type B
Francisco Cordero (33) – Type A
Octavio Dotel (32) – $5.5MM mutual option for ’08
Eric Gagne (32) – Type B
Hitoki Iwase (33)
Masahide Kobayashi (34)
Todd Jones (40) – Type B
Al Reyes (37) – $1MM club option for ’08 – Type B
Mariano Rivera (38) – Type A
Bob Wickman (39)

Middle relievers
Jeremy Affeldt (29)
Antonio Alfonseca (36)
LaTroy Hawkins (35)
Jorge Julio (29) – Type B
Joe Kennedy (29)
Scott Linebrink (31) – Type A
Troy Percival (39) – Type B
David Riske (31) – Type B
Julian Tavarez (35) – $3.85MM club option for ’08
Mike Timlin (42) – Type B
Luis Vizcaino (31) – Type B
Kerry Wood (31)

Given the message sent by the Renteria trade, I’d be stunned if the Tigers didn’t look outside the organization to fill both spots (considering Jones an outsider at this point) – especially given that Dombrowski is going to operate as if Zumaya won’t be available at all. Trying to mix and match with Eulogio De La Cruz, Jose Capellan, et al was one thing when the team had to adjust in mid season. But with a full off season to work with Dombrowski won’t be content to mix and match and hope with the guys he already has.

Of the above list, in addition to Cordero and Rivera I like Eric Gagne. I don’t think he’s as bad as he showed in Boston. He won’t cost a draft pick, and he could be relatively cheap. Who knows, he may even do a one year deal to re-establish his value like Pudge Rodriguez did with the Marlins in 2003. Jorge Julio has posted solid strike out rates through out his career, but he has struggled with walks at times, and is only 29. And Kerry Wood wouldn’t be a bad option if you didn’t have to rely on him. He has upside and could help in the rotation or out of the pen.

Links

links for 2007-11-01

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