2008 Season

The 6 runs per game lineup

58 Comments

A couple weeks ago D-Town Baseball took the Bill James projections for 2008 and crammed them into the Baseball Musings lineup optimizer. Well, now that the Tigers lineup is drool-worthy I figured it would be worth updating.

One of popular iteration of the lineup is:

  1. Granderson
  2. Polanco
  3. Cabrera
  4. Ordonez
  5. Sheffield
  6. Guillen
  7. Renteria
  8. Rodriguez
  9. Jones

Such a lineup would yield 5.831 runs per game. Tantalizing.

Even the worst ordering of players (Pudge leading off) would produce 5.601 runs per game. The best lineup you ask? That would be 5.970 runs per game. As for the configuration – and I know this would never happen – is:

  1. Sheffield
  2. Cabrera
  3. Polanco
  4. Granderson
  5. Ordonez
  6. Jones
  7. Guillen
  8. Rodriguez
  9. Renteria

Regardless it’s a substantial upgrade from what Eric had found earlier where the lineups ranged from 5.224 to 5.578 runs per game.

58 thoughts on “The 6 runs per game lineup”

  2. Sheffield is a surprisingly good leadoff candidate. He’s got good baserunning speed and gets on base with the best of them.

  3. Billfer – Is Vance Wilson supposed to be ready for the beginning of the season? Seems like I read 18 months for Tommy John. If he’s not going to be ready, what are the Tigers’ likely options at backup C?
    Also, any idea what the Tigers will be looking for in the Inge deal? More bullpen help?

  4. This is such a gutsy move which is what makes it so great. I promise right now to never say anything bad about this trade no matter how it pans out 20 years from now. Illitch and the Tigers saw an opportunity and they went for it. How many teams actually do that? The Yankees aren’t with Santana, the Angels didn’t with Cabrera and they all could have. If the Yankees had added Santana they would be terrific, ditto for the Angels. Now both of those teams head into next season with holes.

    Not the Tigers.

  5. A lot of people seem to think that Cabrera will be 3rd, I’m not so sure. I wouldn’t be surprised if Leyland has Sheffield and Maggs 3-4 again with Miggy at 5. But you know those 3 will be 3-4-5.

    One thing I doubt you’ll see is Jones batting 9 if Granderson is leading off. Leyland likes to stagger Lefties and Righties to make it tough on opposing managers who like to get ‘cute’ playing the matchups with relief pitchers toward the 7-8-9 innings.

    So if Granderson is leading off, I think it will be:

    8 Jones
    9 Pudge

    At least against RHP

  6. Wow!!! Whenever you can trade prospects for proven talent (incredible talent), you do it! With Miggy in there the entire lineup will flourish with virtually no holes from 1-9. I believe that Willis will reinvigorate and prosper as well do to the quality of players he is with and the energy this town will show. Man, I can’t wait for the first pitch!

    All the best,

    Pero

  7. Wow. If we’re able to post 5.6 runs per game (907 for the year, 20 more than last year), our staff will only need to hold the opponents to 5 runs per game to pythag 90 games.

    Jesus, if things line up just right, we could easily end up with a 100 win season.

  8. Personally, I’d move Cabrera to LF and keep Inge at 3B. Jones becomes your 4th OF.

    There might be a slight trade-off in offense (0.1-0.2 runs per game), but in terms of run prevention I think it would be worth it.

  9. Cabrera seems to have an unusually high OF error ratio…so I’d give it to Jones and Thames, who are above average defenders, and keep all my errors at third base.

  10. I have to join the conversation to say just how absolutely pumped I am about this. Its a fantastic move and I think both Willis and Cabrera will thrive in Detroit. Unfortunately I can’t say the same thing about Maybin and Miller. I would be very surprised if both of those guys aren’t on the Marlins opening day roster, with expectations even higher than they were in Detroit, and there is going to be pressure for them to perform — immediately. But thats not our concern anymore.. we get to focus on a lineup that returns all-stars at 6 positions and a lineup which can absolutely mash.

    Thanks for all the great coverage Bilfer, now if you could just find a way to condense the next couple months of miserable winter and waiting, and bring on March 31st!!!!!!!!!!!!

  11. I know Cabrera has played LF before, but can he play LF in Comerica? It has been said that LF at the CoPa almost requires a CFer or at least a CFer would be better suited for our LF. I think because of this Jones will likely play alot.

  14. I’ll join Spot Starter in pledging not to criticize this trade in the future.
    This is the first time in my lifetime the Tigers include one of the 2 or 3 best hitters in baseball,a guy who is a perennial candidate to win a Triple Crown(probably the last Tiger you could put in that company was Hank Greenberg).
    This is also a terrific situation for Cabrera and I hope he recognizes it.He no longer has to be ‘the guy'(a weight that Jason correctly points out Maybin will have to bear in Florida) – the lineup around him gives him a shot at 150 RBIs.He gets to play in front of an enthusiastic packed stadium in one of the best baseball cities in the country instead of a paltry 5-10K/game in Florida.There’s enough youth on this team to keep it contending for a long time,a savvy GM,and an owner willing to spend.He’s got some good adult role models here as well- a couple of teammates who will precede him to the HoF(albeit each of them with so-called ‘character’issues of their own)and a couple of countrymen of his who have been exemplary baseball citizens,one of whom is reportedly a hero of his(and with global temperatures rising,the climate here may resemble his native Venezuela sooner rather than later).Hopefully,all that’s enough to convince him to sign long term.
    Plus Dontrelle Willis.This trade goes a long way toward getting the foul taste out of my mouth that’s been there since the Wings gave away Marcel Dionne.

  16. 3:45 p.m., from Amy Nelson
    • Andrew Miller got a phone call within the hour from Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski that he was traded to Florida, which signals that the deal is official.

  19. Folks, get over it about Miggy going to LF. The reason he played left in FLA was that he was in his first two years and the Marlins had Mike Lowell at third base.

    They are NOT going to move Cabrera to the OF for Brandon friggin’ Inge!

    Inge stinks. Get over it.
    He’s been given 6 years to develop and he’s done nothing but underachieve. His days as a starter for Detroit are over, barring injury. “Range” is just not as important for a third baseman and no one is going to move a Hall of Fame talent around for “defense” at third, especially when their career FP is virtually identical and range factor is only .5 difference.

    I wish him the best, but puh-leese…enough begging to keep him in the lineup.

  20. Hmm….’get over’ Miggy going to LF…..

    I don’t know that there’s anything to get over, rather, people just trying to assess the situation. I’ve been following the situation pretty closely and I don’t think it’s that clear cut yet. I don’t think its such a ludicrous idea to have Inge play 3B, especially since it has precedent. Miggy has played the OF before. The Tigers have alot of options. I could see Inge playing 3B against Lefties, and having Cabrera DH and Sheff moving out to LF and Jones sitting against lefties, or maybe Jones moves to CF those days to give Curtis a day off against tough Lefties. Until we hear what Dombrowski/Leyland plans to do, its all speculation at this point.

    My guess is they’ll try to trade Inge and let Miggy do what he wants, which is probably play 3B full time.

    I don’t think anyone is worried about keeping Inge’s bat in the lineup, its his glove at third.

    Whereever Miggy ends up, I think we’re all ecstatic to have him on board 3B full time, or elsewhere, its all good. Its a very good ‘problem’ to have.

    Anyone hear any scuttlebut yet on possible suitors for Inge? Brewers or Phillies perhaps? If the Tigers would have to pay most of his salary in a trade, they’d be better off keeping him as a supersub.

  23. Inge’s best hope to remain as a Tiger? That contract. It a virtual no trade clause after his 07 season. Unless Detroit eats half of it, I don’t see him going anywhere. I just don’t see the Giants saying ‘Yes we will part with a decent reliever and in return we will get a guy owed 18m and who has more career strikeouts than hits.’
    I see him being the major’s most expensive defensive replacement. Which, since I ain’t paying him, is ok with me. The Tigers can keep him, think of him as a insanely expensive version of Dave Bergman in the 80s, I just don’t want to see him getting more than 220 ab’s.

  24. Yeah, I know Inge is overpaid as a utility guy but I don’t see the need to get rid of him just yet. Thames is the most expendable and probably most valuable trade bait we have right now. Keep Cabrera at 3rd, LF against lefties. Inge spells Miggy against lefties and Jones sits. I’ll take Inge at 2B or SS over Ramon Santiago anyday. Backup catcher? He’s done that too. As awesome as our everyday starting lineup is our bench is pretty thin.

  25. With 1-7 you really have a ridiculous lineup that no matter what will push across a ton of runs

    I have a Brandon Inge bias, but IMO he is one of the best 3rd basemen to ever play – defensively.

    Also with the D-train, Kenny and hopefully a healthy Nate you have 3 lefties who throw relatively soft that should induce quite a few balls to the left side of the infield.

    Plus the fact that I personally think Brandon Inge will (especially because of this trade) work his butt off like he did when they brought over Pudge and have a good year if they let him.

    IF I WAS UNBIASED this might be how I’d play it

    Jones LF and Cabrera 3rd against most RHP

    Cabrera LF and Inge 3rd against most LHP

    Career OPS against Lefties
    Inge .806
    Jones .636

    Career OPS against Righties
    Inge .659
    Jones .825

    Still I think that Cabrera used to play LF and even if he has leaned out and will continue to he made the MOST ERRORS at 3rd AND HAD THE 2nd WORST ZR IN THE NATIONAL LEAGUE 2 YEARS IN A ROW

    According to the press conference Jim and Dave haven’t yet decided what they will do…

    OH yea and get excited about Vance coming back!

  26. Anyone thinks this makes the Twinks more likely to deal Santana? Their odds of competing in the Central just got a lot worse, which increases the pressure to get something in return for him before he walks at the end of the year.

    Is there anything the Sox and Indians can do to rebalance the division, or is it really as good as it looks for next year?

  27. I like the strange 3 way platoon with jones inge and miggy as long as it happens on the road. I don’t think cabrera would do well in our large left field. Also, If Cabrera is slimming down and committing to becoming a better all around player, as has been suggested, I think you have to leave him at third where he is most likely to be long term. (unless he eventually moves to first) I think Ilitch has the money and desire to keep him here long term or we would not have acquired him.

    Our bench is weak? I am happy with a bench of Raburn/Thames/Wilson/Santiago.

  28. I’d deal him for a reliever.

    I think it all depends on where Miggy wants to play. And whatever makes him happy and more likely to sign an extension is the right move….

  29. David, I 100% agree. In fact, that’s how I set up my MVP 2005 Baseball team last night… 🙂

  30. Also, mlbtraderumors.com has a rumor of a three team blockbuster involving the Mets, A’s and Twins.

    The Mets would get Santana, Crosby and Johnson
    The A’s would get Reyes and Mulvey
    The Twins would get Haren and Pellot

    I don’t know if this would happen, but I like the idea of Johan not ending up in the AL, even if it means that the twinkies get Haren.

  31. If you truly think that Brandon Inge is among the best defensive third basemen ever,you don’t have a Brandon Inge bias-you have a Brandon Inge brainworm tunnelling through your grey matter.

  35. While Carlos Guillen is certainly no slouch, how do you think Maggs will do with Cabrera protecting him in the lineup. Not to mention how Guillen can protect Cabrera. Last year, he had Josh Willingham and Mike Jacobs behind him in the lineup.

  36. Sheesh, like we don’t have enough to talk about! 🙂

    So, according to Metsblog, ” the Tigers have explored the idea of spinning (Willis) off, and they have contacted the Mets.” They go on to say that Pudge would be part of the deal.

    At this point anything seems possible. But who do we have to replace Pudge? Inge? And does anyone think our rotation is better without Willis than with him? And there’s no mention of what the Tigers would get in return. Prospects? That kind of goes against the prevailing “win now” attitude, doesn’t it?

    Man, March 31 can’t come soon enough!

  37. Pudge to the Mets? We don’t even have a guaranteed back up catcher right now, why would DD do that?

  38. Anne, I think the idea is that we’d get someone from the Mets (Brian Schneider) as part of the return package for Willis and Pudge. If he’s part of the package, though, the rest of it had better be pretty good.

  39. Walt – would Cabrera be any worse than Craigolo in LF? I’d rather have him out there as it is not as demanding as 3rd base is – less wear and tear, just more jogging. Plus I think Inge at third really gives us a much better chance to win especially with one of our 3 lefties on the mound. And as I’ve said, we already have more than enough sticks.

    Joel in Seattle – what version of MVP 05 do you play? GC/PS2/XBox/PC?

    It is such an awesome game, I’ve been so sad they aren’t able to make another one b/c of the 2k crap contract with mlb

    Bob S – you don’t think he is one of the best defensive 3rd basemen ever? I don’t understand your comment…

  41. David:

    I play it on PC. There are mods on mvpmods.com with updated rosters, schedules, everything. They’ve basically made it unnecessary to have a new version of the game come out. It’s awesome.

    I hadn’t touched it in months after the Tigers’ season ended, but I fired it up again last night and spent a couple of hours re-enacting the Tigers’ transactions so far…

  42. David
    I am not sure that he would be any worse, but I think that Jones will be better defensively and I think that Miguel’s stick more than makes up for the lackluster defense. If the Tigers played in Fenway, I would be all for trotting him out there in left.

    As a sidenote, I need to look into the MVP on the PC. I am still playing the PS2 version because the 2k and the how games “inhale aggressively.”

  43. David
    I am not sure that he would be any worse, but I think that Jones will be better defensively and I think that Miguel’s stick more than makes up for the lackluster defense. If the Tigers played in Fenway, I would be all for trotting him out there in left. If Leyland was willing to play Raburn in favor of Inge at times last year for the offense, I can’t see him not doing so for Cabrera.

    As a sidenote, I need to look into the MVP on the PC. I am still playing the PS2 version because the 2k and the how games “inhale aggressively.”

  45. The last PC version of MVP was the ’05 iteration. If you can handle graphics that are a few years old, it’s your best bet, especially with the mods available. Pick up a copy on eBay.

  47. Here’s some classic Rob Neyer…

    Well, let’s talk about Brandon Inge. Not a good hitter, and was actually sort of terrible this year. He had a few decent seasons there, in his late 20s, which is what they’re supposed to do. And now he’s headed toward irrelevance with a bullet. But the ex-catcher has somehow become an excellent third baseman. Cabrera is, by most accounts, a lousy third baseman. According to John Dewan’s +/- system, the difference between them was approximately 40 plays; roughly plus-20 for Inge and minus-20 for Cabrera.

    Forty plays is a lot. Inge batted .236 this year. Give him 40 hits and he bats .315. Consider that Cabrera was in the weaker league, and the difference between them as players — in terms of overall value — wasn’t nearly as great as most would think.

    This from a man who once went ape-crap over writers referring to 250 Mil as a quarter of a billion dollars as a meaningless rhetorical device–implemented to over-value that actual amount of money that was actually spent on a player.

    A mere 40 hits? That’s all that stood between Inge and batting .315? Wow! Absolutely negligible when one puts it into the overall context which, based on a hypothetical reached through an un-explained calculation formed by the great John Dewan, indicates that Inge made 40 more plays at first than did Cabrera. In case any of you didn’t know, John Dewan is a genius on par with Einstein, Newton, Archimedes and Pythagoras! Infreakinfallible!

    Here’s the news Rob…the number of hits that separates Inge from batting .315 is an absolutely, irrefutable, quantifiable fact, whereas the 40 plays that separating Inge from Cabrera is based on something that, for all practical purposes, amounts to nothing more than learned speculation.

    In other words, a spurious comparison at best.

    But here’s the best part! Cabrera hit .320 last year, which means that Inge, even with this spurious comparison in play, still hit 5 points lower than Cabrera. So, in order to make up for this short-fall, Neyer delivers this gem: “Consider that Cabrera was in the weaker league, and the difference between them as players — in terms of overall value — wasn’t nearly as great as most would think.” Right. Boy! That caveat sure seems like it’s based in some sound, statistically based reasoning to me!

    Actually Neyer’s assertion becomes even more ridiculous when you consider who’s making it. This is from a man who for the last 8 years has been writing one article after another that marginalizes batting average as an anachronistic, unreasonable, and unsound statistical category. Amazing how, when the time comes to play the roll of contrarian, Neyer so quickly embraces batting average as a viable statistic for determining a player’s value. What he neglects to point out, while asserting that the difference between Cabrera and Inge (INGE FOR GODSAKE!) is not as, “nearly as great as most would think,” is that Inge had an on-base percentage 89 points lower than Cabrera and a slugging percentage 189 points lower than Cabrera. Do those numbers support his claim that the difference between the two isn’t as great as, “most people would think?” Even taking the 40 plays made difference as factual–which it isn’t–I think that we can come to the conclusion that Inge is nowhere near the player that Cabrera is in terms of over-all contribution to the team.

    And really what is most telling here, is Neyer’s use of the term, “Most-people.” This is often the motivation of stats heavy baseball analysis. Throw a bunch of numbers at people, claim it’s superior ability to inform about the game of baseball, and claim superiority over “most people” who continue to watch the game based on what their eyes and ears tell them is true instead of making arguments based on numbers that are derived from mechanisms they can’t explain. Just because somebody cranks out a number based on a formula and tells us it’s scientifically sound, does not make it so. IQ tests have been nearly universally discredited as a means for determining human intelligence, but go back 30 years and it would have been sacrilege to make such a claim–this even though 30 years ago the majority holding to the veracity of IQ tests couldn’t tell you word one about the mechanism from which they operated. Just don’t tell armchair sabermetricians this…they’d prefer to rely on formula they can’t explain to make them feel superior to “most-people.”

    Brilliant stuff all the way around. Rob Neyer can shove his inconsistent, hypocritical numbers where the sun don’t shine!

  48. I still say Inge at 3rd

    Joel – yea I’m looking to buy the game – I’ve played it on Gamecube for a ridiculous amount of hours – and want to join/am going to join a league

    The sad thing is the game for PC is extremely rare, and I really don’t want to pay 130 for a 20bux game

    Oh well

  49. I really like Inge at third. It is a shame that he has to bat though. We need a new designated fielder rule.

    Another thought, if the outfield is easier on one’s body, how about Cabrera at 1st and Guilen in LF? 😉

    In all seriousness, Miguel should play anywhere he wants. He should be very happy here and want to re sign long term with detroit. That has to be more valuable long term than the defensive gain that Inge brings. This could also depend greatly on what the market for Inge turns out to be. If we can find a team to give up a serviceable reliever and take on all of Brandon’s salary, I think he is gone. I really don’t think that 6M is that expensive for a starting 3B.

  50. David:

    Holy crap – I had no idea my game was so valuable. Too bad I still like playing it.

    I have a copy of the ’04 game – I’ll give it to you for shipping cost, if you want it…

  51. David…we obviously disagree.
    But you have grossly overestimated the value of a defensive third baseman – who also leads his league in errors annually – if you’re favoring Brandon Inge over Miggy Cabrera at third.
    It’s not even close and you sound ridiculous with your insistence on trying to keep him in the lineup. A “great” defensive third sacker, no matter how good, is just not as valuable as CF, SS, 2B or C. And Inge’s career-long record of offensive futility is a HUGE factor in this debate.
    Why would you “afford” a lousy guy in the lineup if you don’t have to?
    As an expensive utility guy, he’s fine, but as stated above, no more than 200-250 AB’s.
    As for this “greatest defensive thirdbaseman” nonsense. Please. No Gold Gloves, no season with less than 20 E’s or leading his league in E’s, numerous brain farts…it’s getting to be a joke with the worship of a guy who is very lucky to still be in the league, had he not broke in with a horrible Detroit squad his first couple seasons. With nearly any other team, he’d be home selling insurance by now.

  52. I’m scared…this team is one capable of scoring 950, even 1000 runs…the last time that happened was the 1999 Indians, who scored 1009 runs but who couldn’t pitch worth jack.

    The Tigers could win upwards of 100 games if the team stays healthy…I’m worried about my team for this season. If Travis Hafner and Grady Sizemore don’t have bounceback years, if Garko and Gutierrez don’t have a breakout season and if Sabathia and Carmona don’t pitch like they did this past season, we could be in trouble.

    At this point the Tigers’ biggest weakness is the bullpen; not enough depth, and the relievers they do have appear to be wild cards.

  53. Inge vs. Lefties in 2007 – .333/.419./.505

    Add in his defense and I think he’s an asset vs. lefties at 3B

    On a different note…

    Didn’t Thames make less than 500k this year? That seems dirt cheap for his production. As part of a platoon in LF with Jones he’d work out well. But I hear they’re trying to trade him. It must be because he’d get a huge raise with arbitration this year? Is he eligible for that yet?

    Will be interesting to see how the Tigs will play this hand out with these options.

  54. I’ve got no problems keeping Inge around in his proper role as a utility player,but if Cabrera is comfortable at third,he should play third.
    Seeing as how Inge’s numbers make him essentially an x-ray of Granderson,how about getting his bat in the lineup by trying him out in CF against LHP?His range and his arm(both of which allow him to make some of the highlight reel plays that have convinced some of his defensive greatness) might make him one of the best defensive centerfielders ever to platoon with one of the other best defensive centerfielders ever.

  55. Cabrera doesn’t say he’s more comfortable at third. Sounds like he’s just excited to be with us. Before we go around giving him our first borns and such, why don’t we see if can play an effective left field? When you consider both batting and defense, I think that an Inge/Cabrera pairing is better than a Jones/Cabrera.

  57. No ones talking about giving Cabrera our firstborne (although I think we should all be a little open minded about our wives,girlfriends,or daughters),and I’m fine with him playing LF(or even RF,with the arm he shows at 3B),if he’s capable and IF he wants to.My point is that he’s a lot more important to this organization than Inge and it would be a shame to repeat the mistake that the Yankees made with Alex Rodriguez.

Comments are closed.