Monthly Archives: March 2008

Injuries, Interviews

Talking injuries with Will Carroll

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Will Carroll is a sports injury guru. He’s been writing the Under The Knife column for Baseball Prospectus for many years, and also compiles the annual Team Health Reports for BP as well. Carroll also authored Saving the Pitcher, a detailed look at pitching injuries, the primary factors for injuries, and strategies to prevent them.

Carroll was kind enough to answer a few questions over email.

DTW: Jeremy Bonderman has experienced elbow pain in two of the last three years. Is this a product of the high proportion of sliders he throws, or is it simply a matter of a young pitcher with quite a few innings on his arm? Could an increased reliance on the change up help him from an injury standpoint?
WC: I think it’s more the latter, which is the more disappointing result. Bonderman has been handled very carefully and smartly, but he’s young and used heavily. (Not abused, just used.) If it’s just inevitable that a heavily used youngster who’s not a freak will break down, well, at least we’ll know.

As for the changeup, no, not really. Glenn Fleisig is the expert here and his research has shown that all pitches thrown well have a smaller than expected difference in force.

DTW: Fernando Rodney has had TJ surgery in his past, and now several bouts of tendinitis. Last year he was basically an every-other-month pitcher and things aren’t starting off well in 2008. Do you see him ever throwing a complete season again?
WC: No, the wear and tear is simply too much. I don’t think he’s ever really been healthy, which is pretty amazing considering how effective he’s been in spurts.
DTW: If you were in charge of pitching in the Tigers farm system, how would you set Rick Porcello’s workload limit?
WC: I wouldn’t limit him.

Ok, that’s a bit dramatic. I did an article at BP a couple years ago which I think is one of the most important I’ve done. (That’s not setting the bar very high.)
I think some type of logical, progressive approach is the future. Some organization is going to do it — and I’m not saying my idea is right, though I think it’s close — and they’re going to be way, way ahead of the game because not only will they know what their pitchers can do, they’ll know how they can use them best.

DTW: When making the decision to go the rest/rehab route or go right to surgery, do different teams have different tendencies? If so how much is dictated by the front office versus the team medical staff versus the specialist (Andrews/Yokum types)?
WC:
No, not really. Almost all teams will try to avoid surgery, which is smart. Sometimes you can, sometimes you can’t. I think some are starting to take a look at the times when surgery is probably the best possible result, but it’s all about the timing. The Curt Schilling situation is one of the toughest ones, where disagreement and varying timing and biases all end up with the player’s career caught in the middle.
DTW: Have you seen any teams make a concerted effort to focus on the mental aspect of the game by bringing psychologists on to the medical staff?
WC:
Several. Not only teams, but agencies. I think the Indians are at the forefront, but there’s a lot of teams that have been doing this quietly.
DTW: I know we’re working with little comparative data here, but give me your odds on Joel Zumaya ever being able to throw 100mph again?
WC: You know, I actually talked to Brian Griese who had similar surgery about this and he thinks it will take Zumaya a full year, but if his mechanics stay sound, Griese thought he could get back to full strength. Take that for what it’s worth.

Thanks to Will for taking the time chat with us. You can find the Tigers Team Health Report at BP.

Contracts

THE CONTRACT is official

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It’s kind of anti-climactic at this point, but the Miguel Cabrera deal has officially been announced. The deal is for 7 years and $141 million beyond the 1 year deal he signed for 2008.

As speculated correctly here (I’m so rarely right I feel the need to claim it), $15 million is due in 2009. The Freep has the breakdown of the remaining years which range from $20 to $22 million a year. I’ve updated the Payroll page to reflect this. It is worth noting that the Tigers have $114 million committed to 13 players (including Porcello and a Renteria option) in 2009 and $94 million committed in 2010. This team is built to win for the next 3 years.

There is what the Freep deemed a limited no trade clause. It’s described as the Tigers being able to trade Cabrera to 10 teams without his permission. I’d call that partial instead of limited, but that’s semantics.

In a separate article the Freep detailed that had the deal not been done now, it might not have gotten done at all. Certainly not at the same price anyways. Cabrera wasn’t going to negotiate during the season, and had he waited until next offseason, free agency would have only been one year away.

As for the whether or not it was a good deal, it’s being praised by those who crunch the numbers.

Fan Experience

What was your best day in baseball?

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Last night I finished reading The Soul of Baseball – A Road Trip Through Buck O’Neil’s America. My only disappointment is that I didn’t read the book sooner. Joe Posnanski, arguably the best sportswriter in America, spent a year traveling the country with Negro League legend Buck O’Neil. The result is an enriching look at an astounding individual, with some baseball thrown in.

I’m always a sucker for baseball books, and have a number in my queue as we speak. As a baseball book it doesn’t disappoint. Posnanski accomplished his mission of writing a book about the Negro Leagues, as Buck had wished. But what makes the book so wonderful is how Posnanski artfully told Buck’s story through Buck’s stories. By the time I finished I felt inspired and optimistic and a little heart broken. That I “felt” anything at the conclusion of a baseball book even surprised me.

Now this has little to do with the Tigers, but I bring this up for two reasons. First, the paperback verison just recently was released.

Second, I borrowed the title of this post from the book. It was a question that O’Neil asked regularly. I thought it would make for some nice reader participation as countdown the last days towards the start of the season.

My best day? Hard to pinpoint. I of course remember my first game I attended. I remember some special times playing. But I think my best day is relatively recent. It was the night that Magglio Ordonez hit the homer clinching the AL Pennant in 2006. It’s not my best day because the Tigers won, but because I experienced it with my kids.

What was your best day in baseball?

2008 Season, Contracts, Former Tigers, Injuries, Spring Training

Junkballing: Almost too much to link to

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A flurry of link worthy items, plus just being behind in general leads to the mother of all link round-ups:

Injuries – left handed pitcher edition

Bless You Boys picked up a Buster Olney report that scouts were speculating that Dontrelle Willis may be injured. That could certainly be part of his control problems. Then again, Willis has battled increasing control issues the last couple years so it may be a continuation of a trend. But it sounded like Tigers scouts were confident that the problem had been licked. But what if it isn’t?

Assignable cause is always nice when trying to identify shifts in output (I’m an industrial engineer by trade). Usually if you can find the assignable cause and fix it. But in this case fixing it may mean rest & rehab or even surgery if there is an elbow problem.

Big League Stew has some more. Well, not much more but I like BLS and there’s a cool picture.

Things aren’t going well for Clay Rapada either who is experiencing more soreness.

Injury news – right handed pitching edition

Fernando Rodney was examined by the team orthopod and no structural damage was found and he will resume throwing. That’s the good news portion of this update.

Injury news – blogging center fielder subsection

Let’s hope Granderson heals as fast as he gets out of the box for triples. The mending time is estimated to be really quick where he only misses the first week (via John Fuller, his publicist/manager type guy) or it could be a month if Chone Figgins can be used as a comp. While he could probably start swinging the bat right away, it will likely effect his grip strength. And man, I’d imagine hitting in cold weather would be especially painful.

In his stead Edgar Renteria will leadoff and Brandon Inge will manner center field – at least initially. I have a felling there will be some mixing and matching with Ryan Raburn perhaps getting some extra at-bats as well.

Interviews

Speaking of Granderson, The Grandy Report was able to interview him last week. It turns out Granderson’s favorite subject was math. I wonder if he’s a saber?

Also, Dontrelle Willis got together with Ryan Howard and David Wright during a Topps shoot. Willis grabbed the mike and conducted the interviews himself. This interview keeps getting taken down, so catch it while you can.

THE CONTRACT

I think it’s only appropriate that THE TRADE spurred THE CONTRACT. There is little new news about THE CONTRACT except that it is a 7 year extension as I had speculated initially. My guess on how it breaks out is $15 million in 2009 and then $21 million in each of 2010-2015. It hasn’t been officially announced, but it hasn’t been denied. And Cabrera’s Dad seemed to confirm it to a Venezuelan newspaper. (translation via Google)

“We were expecting this contract,” said Cabrera Navas. “There were two very important things for him to accept the deal: first, that there are other Venezuelans, as Magglio (Ordoñez) and Carlos (Guillen), and second, that we have a good chance to win and go to a World Series.”

The story also said that there are incentives for MVPs, All Star Games, and the like.

Mack Avenue Tigers beat me to the punch and rounded up the opinions on the valuation of the deal. The opinions vary greatly. I’m still sticking with my initial feelings that it is a pretty fair valuation for both sides. In terms of Cabrera’s actual value it seems fair. In terms of Cabrera’s perceived value it appears to be favorable for the club.

Leftovers

Finally wrapping this thing up we look to the Marlins who decided to send Cameron Maybin to the minors for more seasoning. Probably a good move and Maybin will probably still be the starting centerfielder by the end of the year. But Jair Jurrjens locked up a spot in the rotation after a strong spring.

And lastly, Brennan Boesch had some bathroom problems today.

2008 Season, Game Post, Spring Training

Easter Sunday Game Thread: Indians & Tigers

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PREGAME: Happy Easter to those of you who celebrate. And if you’re not one who partakes, warm Sunday wishes to you.

The Tigers will be taking on the Indians today from Joker Marchant Stadium and the game is on FSN Detroit. The Tigers will send out Yorman Bazardo as they try and assess his place on the roster.

Game Time 1:05

POSTGAME: I caught a good portion of the game today. That’s a first for me this spring. My impressions:

  • With the Granderson injury I’m guessing that the Renteria-Polanco-Sheffield-Ordonez-Cabrera-Guillen-Rodriguez-Jones-Inge deployed today will be the “normal” lineup.
  • At least it will be that way as long as Inge can handle center field. He did OK today, evening making a diving catch late in the game. But it was a ballsy play that given the timing of the game probably wasn’t well advised.
  • Yorman Bazardo looked quite impressive, mixing several pitches and commanding them well. He got Hafner in the first inning on a swinging strike out.
  • Really, all the pitchers looked good save for Tim Byrdak. And I can’t comment too much on Byrdak because I happened to miss his inning – I just saw the final results. As he continues to struggle I wonder if his spot is becoming more tenuous?
  • Man, does Miguel Cabrera have a cannon for an arm.
2008 Season, Injuries, Spring Training

Granderson to DL – Arghhh

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Remember when the Tigers made the Edgar Renteria trade and everyone was so happy? Meanwhile Joel Zumaya was being evaluated from having his shoulder crushed and the news he’d be out put a big damper on the euphoria. Well, now Curtis Granderson’s finger (middle no less) is sticking it to Tigers fans basking in the Miguel Cabrera glow.

Jason Beck reports that when he was hit by a pitch yesterday, it fractured his finger. This means a couple weeks in a splint and a couple weeks of missed time. And to make things even better, it’s his right hand which is kind of important for someone who throws right handed.

This could be that regular playing time that Inge was looking for. Or it could solidify Ryan Raburn’s spot on the team. Or it could open the door for Freddy Guzman.

Long term this doesn’t figure to be significant. Short term it is irritating to say the least.

2008 Season, Contracts

Reports: Tigers sign Cabrera to $153 million contract

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cabrera.jpg
credit Roger DeWitt

ESPN.com is reporting that Miguel Cabrera and the Tigers have agreed to an 8 year contract totaling $153.3 million. The deal is to be announced Monday pending a physical.

This is of course the biggest deal in franchise history, and it’s befitting a franchise caliber player. Locking Cabrera up long term was no doubt a priority from the moment THE TRADE was completed back in early December.

We’ll have to wait for the details of course, but I’d assume that this contract supplants the one year deal signed in January. Meaning that Cabrera will be donning the English D through 2015. So the Tigers lock up one of the premier hitters in the game for his age 25-32 seasons. What’s not to like?

If it is in fact replacing the existing deal, or essentially a 7 year extension on the $11.3 million he’s going to make this year, then it is $20 million per year from 2009 on. The chances of him reaching $20 million in 2009, the last year of arbitration, are small. Cabrera would probably be in line for something around $14-15 million next year. But even if they are paying more in ’09 it still looks to be a solid deal in aggregate.

Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system only projects out 7 years, but for each of those years Cabrera projects to be a $20 million a year player according to the BP metric MORP. Tom Tango’s salary chart reveals that an 8 year – $151 million contract implies 5 wins above replacement. BP sees Cabrera as more than 5.3 wins above replacement through 2014. I don’t trust BP’s defensive metrics though and would probably discount their WARP total accordingly.

Also, the BP method of WARP differs from the method that Tango employs. His methods can be found in the comments here. I tried to follow them (could have botched them as well) and pegged Cabrera between 4.5 to 5 wins above replacement. So depending on the methodology the numbers say the deal is either reasonable/slight overpay or quite fair.

The one thing that the pure WARP numbers don’t extrapolate is the impact of having a player with extraordinary superstar abilities. The wins and losses are accounted for, but not the good will built with the fan base for securing a player of that magnitude. Or the potential revenue associated with having a hall of fame quality hitter through the prime of his career.

Committing that many years and dollars to any player is a little scary (look what happened to Juan Gonzalez). But if you’re going to do it, then do it with a 25 year old player who already has 4 years of offensive excellence under his belt.

2008 Season, Spring Training, Trade Rumors

Leyland and stomach have conversation

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Jim Leyland’s gut is telling him that a trade for bullpen help is on the horizon.

“I think there is a strong possibility that something could happen in the next few days,” Leyland said. “I think that’s a strong possibility. I don’t know if anything will happen. It’s kind of my gut telling me it’s going to happen, somehow, some way.”

It is that time of the year when teams try to get something for the out-of-option players who aren’t likely to make the club. Teams also have a good idea at this point of who will and won’t be ready for opening day.

That trade may or may not be for one Michael Wuertz.

The Freep and Sun Times can’t agree on the degree to which the Cubs might be interested in Inge and/or Thames.

As for Wuertz, he’s certainly an attractive idea with that coveted strikeout per inning ability. Of course he also walks a batter every other inning – but as I look at the arms being talked about for the Tigers that seems to be a common trend.

Pitching, Players, Research, Uncategorized

Do Bonderman’s pitches fool umpires?

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An article at the Wall Street Journal delved into Jeremy Bonderman’s first inning struggles. Former pitching coach Bob Cluck wondered whether or not Bonderman’s struggles are attributable to umpires needing an inning to adjust to the movement on Bonderman’s pitches.

The stats seem to support this theory. The last seven times Mr. Bonderman faced an ump for a second or third time in a season, he allowed first-inning runs only once. On opening day last season — when the first three batters he faced all scored — the umpire behind the plate was Rick Reed, who hadn’t seen him in nearly a year.

Looking on a results basis probably isn’t the best way to determine this. But being able to check Bonderman’s called strike/ball rates in the first inning versus other innings, as well as factoring the first time an umpire sees him versus the second time, may be worth some effort. And then even expanding it beyond Bonderman to look for other pitchers who have similar movement on their pitches and if they have similar issues. The latter could be done with pitch f/x data and the former with retrosheet data. I’ll focus on the retrosheet piece for now.

Big View

The first thing I did was to look at Bonderman’s first inning ball and called strike rates compared to all other innings. I looked at all Bonderman data going back to 2003.
bondo1.JPG
The differences are pretty minimal, especially the ratio of balls to called strikes. In fact the ratio indicates that Bonderman gets more calls earlier in the game – if at all.

First Timers

Next, I took at all the times that an umpire was behind the plate for the first time against Bonderman. If the theory holds true, there should be a bigger disparity.

bondo2.jpg
We can see that a higher percentage of balls are called. We also see fewer called strikes in relation to the number of balls.

Return visits

Finally, a look at those who have called Bonderman games before.
bondo3.JPG
A somewhat interesting dynamic with this group. The ratio is more favorable in the first inning, but a higher a percentage of balls are called as well.

On another note, Brian Gorman is the umpire who has called the most of Bonderman’s starts with six. Larry Vanover has done 5 Bonderman games.

Taking familiarity one step further, I also pulled out the times when an umpire was seeing Bonderman multiple times in the same season. This isn’t a common phenomenon with it only happening 23 times in Bonderman’s 5 seasons. So it’s a situation that will present itself a handful of times a year.

bondo4.JPG
Things are certainly more favorable in the first inning for this situation. But that only seems to help in the first innings.

Conclusions

So is there anything to take from this data, does the specualtion hold up? I’d say that it is possible there is an effect for umpires seeing Bonderman for the first time ever. The rate of called balls, and overall rate of calling balls is highest for first timers in the first inning against Bonderman. The fact that the numbers in subsequent innings of that first start are in line with overall numbers does seem to indicate that the umpires do make an adjustment.

But otherwise the numbers are largely inconclusive. Given the in game variation for those seeing Bonderman repeatedly in a season seems to indicate that Bonderman has much more influence over these numbers than the umpires do – which really isn’t a shocker at all.

With pitch f/x data one could look for the frequency that pitches are called correctly by inning. But with only a partial season of data there isn’t enough to work with for the time being.

2008 Season, Injuries, Spring Training, Trade Rumors

Fanning the Inge/Thames trade fires

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While the players had a day off today, I’m sure that the front office was continuing to work the phones. News of another injury in Dodgertown may be a catalyst for a Brandon Inge trade while more Marcus Thames rumors swirl.

I saw it first on Spot Starters that the Dodgers back up plan for Andy LaRoche at third base, Nomar Garciaparra, fractured his left hand. Inge could be a target for the Dodgers to play third base. Still, neither of the injured players are supposed to miss the entire season so why would the Dodgers take on 3 seasons when they could get a one season player like Joe Crede?

Meanwhile, via MetsBlog Jayson Stark reports that the Mets covet Thames. In exchange the Tigers are angling for Aaron Heilman. Heilman fanned three times as many as he walked last year. The 29 year old right hander is certainly a more attractive arm than others who had been linked to the Tigers but Stark doesn’t see the Mets moving him.

In the same piece Stark has this:

But an official of one club says the Tigers are “talking to every club out there just about every day.”

With Fernando Rodney out of action, Francisco Cruceta out of the country, Yorman Bazardo dealing with neck stiffness, and Todd Jones battling arm strength issues, what was a suspect bullpen is now bordering on terrifying.

2008 Season, Injuries, Roster Management

Should Detroit option Zumaya to Toledo?

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One of the benefits of growing your own talent is getting 3 years of quality production at or near the league minimum. Joel Zumaya was a bargain in 2006. In 2007 he didn’t cost the team much, but he didn’t contribute a whole lot either due to the exploding finger. In 2008 he figures to again be affordable, but not particularly productive for a big chunk of the season. Therein lies the problem. The Tigers and Zumaya are poised to waste a good portion of his pre-arb years on the DL.

As a general rule, players become arbitration eligible after 3 years of service time. There’s another caveat where the top 17% (based on days of service) of those players with more than 2, but less than 3 years of time are also eligible. These players are called Super 2’s. Last year the cutoff was 2 years and 131 days of service.

I bring this up because Joel Zumaya is a lock to miss at least two months of the season, or at least 60 days. Which means he’s a near lock to not actually be able to contribute enough days to equate to a Super 2. Zumaya still has 3 options left, never having used one. If the Tigers were to option Zumaya to Toledo for the duration of his DL stint they could delay arbitration by a season.

Now last year when the team had a full 40 man roster, it was advantageous to keep Zumaya on big league roster and place him on the 60 day DL freeing up a spot on the 40 man. It’s why Tony Giarratano was placed on the 60 day DL last year. This year the team has several spots open thanks to THE TRADE and it’s not a consideration.

Now the downside of this type of tactic is that it can be perceived as a jerk move by the player. You not only cut into his earnings in the current season, but it also pushes back his big payday a year. Also, the general impression is that the organization tends to take care of its players. Certainly an image worth maintaining when your ace is about to get more expensive and you’re trying to lock up one of the game’s preeminent hitters long term. Still, from an immediate pure dollars and sense standpoint it does warrant some consideration.