It’s been written about for the last few days, but the team made it official today. Righthanded pitchers Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya are both scheduled to begin an injury rehab assignment on Tuesday, June 3.
Rodney will be assigned to Triple A Toledo, while Zumaya will be assigned to Single A Lakeland.
With Rodney being assigned to the Mud Hens, it seems that he could be back within a week or two. I’d guess that Zumaya is more likely to use closer to the full month allotted as he rebuilds arm strength.
I will not let myself get sucked into depending on these two. Anything they give us in 2008 is gravy. I will not say to myself, “when they come back, we suddenly have a pretty nasty bullpen, and the starting pitching is really coming around. I think this thing could turn for us.”
Nope. Won’t do it.
Mark, get back on the antidepressants and sing a happy song. Come on, get happy.
Cross your fingers, just hope that Joel doesn’t cross his.
This is precisely why I think all the mock drafts having the Tigers go with Josh Fields, Andrew Cashner or another top college closer is kind of lazy.
A first round talent can pay dividends for years and save a club millions of dollars. You can’t afford to pick a guy because he MIGHT fill a need on your big league club for a couple months. You go with the top talent and it’s hard to believe that’s going to be a guy who throws 60 innings a year.
Neal:
I don’t think Mark’s post has anything to do with being depressed or singin’ the Blues there. My take is he is more or less paraphrasing the old expression, “fool me one, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me…”
I’m with him. I’m cautiously optimistic, but I’m certainly not holding my breath.
Is there a top College SS who can field ready to take over quickly in the bigs?
For next year we lose Pudge, Rogers, and J. Jones salary, with an option buyout on Renteria. We could shift Inge to catch primarily, and use the freed up money for a corner infielder and outfielder. Showcase these guys for June and July as well in case we do fall out of it.
I know guys, cautious optimism is probably the best way to go, and considering how they have played this year, the only way to go. But you just have to really try to still say we’ll get it done, it’ll all come together.
We’re good enough, and people like us.
It is best to be cautious. Remember when Zoom came back last year from the finger issue, and was unable to throw like he did in 2006. Now he is coming back from major shoulder surgery, so he may not be back to full strength until the end of the season or next year. Rodney will be more dependable (at least dependable for Rodney) if his velocity is in the mid 90’s. As long as he gets seperation with the change, he can get the outs.
Neal – Position players with the kind of talent to get to the majors that quickly, especially at shortstop, are pretty rare. There aren’t a lot of players from the 2006 draft in the majors now and most of the ones who are pitch.
If such a player is in this draft, and it doesn’t sound like there is, he’s not likely to be available to the Tigers with the 21st pick.
The Tigers should stick to the game plan, draft the best player available and pat themselves on the back if he’s contributing at the major league level in 2011 (or ever, really).
Neal – I don’t think there are any SS’s in the draft that will be ready for next year. Not sure what the Tigers will do at that positon in 2009, but I think if Inge catches, then Leyland will have Guillen back at third. LF could go to one of the Tigers minor leaguers to save money. You have to remember, although some players come off the books, offers will have increases (Bondo, Grandy), plus Verlander will be looking for a contract. I think we are at 100mill pledged for 2009 already. Maybe, they go after a catcher or 3rd baseman if they choose to put Guillen in LF all year or Brandon at 3rd.
It is hard to believe – or maybe I just don’t want to believe it – that Guillen will be back ar 3B in 2009. I do think the Tigers need to go after a catcher and a 3B, and I don’t mean in the draft.
I’m with Mark on Rodney and Zumaya, except that I don’t count on them at all. It’s quite a different situation, but it reminds me in at least one way of Cubs fans waiting and waiting and waiting on Prior and Wood to come back. The waiting in 2007 was enough for me. Unless they can also hit and play a position, even an unlikely return to 2006 form can’t do much more than give us a little more hope for 2009.
OK here’s todays post that proves I have too much time on my hands. I was interested in seeing the numbers when Inge is at 3B vs. anyone else at 3B. So here’s what I came up with. Inge has started 15 games at 3B vs. 41 by the other guys. In those 15 games, the team has given up 65 runs (4.33 RPG) while the team has given up 219 in the other 41 (5.34 RPG). Now this isn’t entirely fair, since no 3B can do anything about HR allowed. So I removed any runs scored via HR for each, and came up with 41 non-HR runs scored in Inge games (2.73 RPG) versus 160 non-HR runs in Guillen/Cabrera games (3.90 RPG). Admittedly this is a small sample, but it looks like the team allows over one fewer run when Inge is wearing his 3B glove. I’d say he should probably be in there pretty often, no?
When Zumaya comes back, they should think of grooming him to become the closer for ’09. I think he would relish that role and could become a lights-out type of closer, as opposed to the roller-coaster guy we’ve got now.
Chris,
I agree that that is probably the likely course of events. But why would you want that? Jone has blown no saves this year. Mostly, his job involves coming out with a 2 or 3 run lead in the 9th with no one on and no one out. All he has to do is get three outs before he gives up 2 runs, and his job is considered a success.
The harder part is getting to that point. Imagine a situation where Bonderman has runners at second and third with only one out in a one run game. What you need right away is a strikeout, and then another out (doesn’t matter how it comes). Zumaya is a good bet for that. Why would you put someone else in to try and pitch out of that situation while saving your best reliever to pitch the 9th? No way. Todd Jones’ year last year is proof that you don’t need a lights-out closer. He blew just as many saves as Bobby Jenks, for example.
So, if I’m managing, Zumaya is going to get a new official position called The Relief Ace. His job is to get out of jam situations in close games, where runners are on base and you need The Wolf to come clean up the mess. He can earn a new statistic called Jam Outs. For every outing he makes without allowing a run to score, he gets a point. God forbid you give a great pitcher a role where he can’t compile some statistic that he can point to.
Random Draft Thought of the Day: The Tigers should select Cal Sr. 2B Josh Satin, who I haven’t seen mentioned in any 1st round mocks. He’s only raking to a tune of .388/.508/.745 with 18 HR. And Polanco *is* getting up there in age. I’m just sayin’.
I understand how difficult it is to get someone that would be ready for next year. My take on it was that most of the development is on getting them ready to face MLB pitching. If that’s true (if), is there a College SS able to field well at the MLB level, who could spend 2009, and hopefully only part of 2010 learning to hit at the MLB level? I mean, could it be worse than a sub 700 OPS stationary SS?? Or an 800 OPS stationary SS that can’t bend and throws erractically?? I don’t know enough about what is out there to make a knowledged assesment.
Good work Chris in Dallas, but don’t confuse correlation with causation. I would argue the pitching has been better overall lately (particularly the starting pitching) because there are fewer walks and better defense generally (i.e. fewer errors) by everyone involved. A similar argument to yours is that RPG went down after we moved Cabrera to first, therefore he is a plus defender at that position.
Just because RPG went down while Inge was in there doesn’t mean he caused it (or substantially all of it).
That said, I do agree with your assesment that he should be in there every day because I think in the long run he makes them a better team defensively. His plus range compensates for the Washington Monument we run out there at SS every day, and Polly has adequate range on the right side to account for Taco Bell Miguel. His offense is a downer on most nights but he has the ability to come up with a few hits mixed in with a ton of K’s along the way.
Taco Bell Miguel? He looks pretty good at first, to me. Seems to have good enough range over there and is willing to dive for balls.
Mark: I hear ya. Obviously one guy won’t make *that* much of a difference all by himself, but it is an interesting split nonetheless. I wouldn’t call Renteria the Washington Monument, though. He’s always reminded me more of Mount Rushmore. Very stoic and dignified.
Eric,
I agree with your sentiments entirely. Closer is an overrated position, it’s better to use Zumaya in high leverage situations where he’s facing the other team’s toughest hitters, perhaps with men on base. Manager and GMs have structured their bullpens and their usage around one statistic – the save, even though it’s often not in their best interest to do so. I think Leyland and DD may actually understand this since they keep trotting Jones out there in the 9th and brought in Rodney and Zumaya (when healthy) into jams in the late innings.
Sadly, you point out that the only way to get people to understand the importance of using your best reliever in the most important situation is to invent a statistic, which you call the Jam Out.
Eric,
Yeah, let me clarify, Miggy looks very solid at 1b so far and my untrained eye thinks he has the capacity to get better. I call him Taco Bell Miguel merely as a reference to his weight. He’s a little tubby, in my opinion.
Chris – Thanks for crunching those numbers/splits on Inge. They are very telling. Its true that correlation isn’t always causation, but having watched cause and effect more times than I can count, there’s no doubt in my mind that removing Guillen from the infield reduces our pitcher’s era over 1 run a game. It’s probably not every single game, but it sure seems like an average of 2-3 times a game with Guillen at 3B I say ‘Inge would have made that play’ and over half of those plays, it ends up costing the Tigers 1-5 runs.
In this case, there is a causation, in my opinion.
First time commenter here – long time reader though (now that we have that cliche’ out of the way).
I like what many of you have said about Closer being over-rated. I agree that to a degree it is. I think you need to have your best relievers come in to get the toughest outs.
However, I really worry about Zumaya’s ability to throw the 100+ mph gas upon his return. He seems to have a nice assortment of pitches that might be better utilized as a guy at the back end of the rotation. If the Tigers can make a run I think finding help in the pen will be cheaper and easier than finding another SP – something we may need.
On a note of slight contradiction though – I do support Zumaya in the pen if he is allowed more innings. If he must stay in the pen, I would advocate for him being our setup guy AND out closer. He should have the endurance – why not try him in the 8th AND 9th innings combined?
Chris in Dallas
Since you have time (you said so!), look into who was on the mound when Inge made his starts at 3B.
My interesting stat of the day: When outhit by opponents, the Tigers are 3-27. When Tigers outhit their opponents, they are 21-4. This seems pretty extreme to me. What might also be interesting is to look at the 7 games which went against type, and how/why:
7-5 vs Seattle June 1
3-4 vs Arizona May 16
6-5 vs Yankees May 9
6-7 vs Minnesota May 4
2-3 vs Toronto April 19
6-5 vs Minnesota April 14
3-5 vs White Sox April 5
Agreed on Miggy at first looks fine over there at 1B. I don’t see a gold glove in his future, but he’s doing a decent job.
He’s also one of the more entertaining players to watch too.
Unrelated note: You have to love that Ozzie Guillen is blowing up like his team is in last place, rather than first. Here’s what their GM had to say about his tirade today:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3422002
I agree with TigerscubsThirtyThree – in fact if Zumaya can’t throw 100+ MPH I’d advocate he become a starter to save his arm among other benefits.
Sean: Well aren’t you just putting me to work over here. Here’s the breakdown
Bondo 4
Willis 1
Robertson 4
Verlander 2
Galarraga 3
Rogers 1
I don’t know if that tells us much, but there it is.
It isn’t like Zumaya would put less stress on his arm throwing 97 rather than 103. That’s like saying that it’s less stressful to throw a changeup than a fastball, which may be true considering only the fingers, but not the arm as a whole.
Zumaya doesn’t have the mechanics to pitch 200+ innings year in, year out. Shoot, even if he’s averaging 95 on his fastball rather than 98, that’s still plenty. J.J. Putz and Papelbon average 95 on their fastballs and they are the best closers in baseball. The trick for Zumaya is going to be location, but that’s important whether he’s throwing 103 or 95.
Interesting thoughts on Zumaya being bumped into the rotation. I recall reading (though I can’t find the link) an article on Zumaya’s mechanics, and quite simply, they are pretty terrible. He raises his elbows above the plane of his shoulders, creating what is dubbed an ‘inverted W’. Why they don’t just call it an ‘M’ is beyond me. Anyhow, this puts tremendous torque on the pitching elbow and shoulder. Furthermore, his timing with respect to his plant foot is awful, when he lands, his arm is well behind his body, putting even more torque on the shoulder.
Now, this article pointed out that these issues are less of a concern for relievers, since they typically only get 70 or so innings per year. But for starters, this wear and tear causes a tremendous amount of damage over time. Billy Wagner is a guy who has a similar delivery to Zumaya, but he’s been fairly injury-free. Mark Prior is also similar, but starter’s innings MAY have taken a toll on him.
Now, I am no expert in pitching mechanics, and I’ll do my best to find the article so you can judge for yourselves. But if there’s any truth to what is said, Zumaya’s career is most certainly better served as a reliever.
Eric,
I agree that Control is Zumaya’s problem first and foremost. However, since he did start all throughout the minors I have to think he could be pressed into duty as a 6 Inning type of guy.
I also think that Zumaya, much like Verlander did in his rookie year, overthrows to try and blow guys away. Perhaps that mentality could change if he were a starter – perhaps not. I think he relies too much on his fastball and by losing 5-8 mph on that fastball it becomes all that more hittable. As a SP he would have to rely more on his secondary and tertiary pitches. Perhaps he would do that as a MR now, who knows. I just wanted to throw out something a bit different.
Kyle J,
I’m so glad you brought that up, I love watching Ozzie blow up. I’m not sure if he’s trying to fire up his team, and I don’t know who he’s been “protecting” (said elswhere in the article). But it sure is fun.
I think Ozzie knows that his team is pitching WAY over their heads and if they don’t get some hitting, they’re cooked. It’s about STAYING in first, not getting there. I highly doubt Gavin Floyd will continue to luck out to the tune of a .175 BABIP all year. Fortunately, the Sox are old and declining (fast) offensively, so they probably ARE cooked.
Man, I hate White Sox.
Mark,
That is an interesting note – I would love to read that article. the comparisons lend a lot of credence to the idea of leaving Zumaya in the pen.
Even still, I like the idea of multiple innings out of him more often (if possible)
Here’s a good article on the subject. Note Jeremy Bonderman’s picture in there….
http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/Baseball/Pitching/RethinkingPitching/Essays/DeathToTheInvertedW.html
Tigercub,
I found a good article on the subject, but the spam filter won’t let me post the link.
I’m not that computer literate with XHTML, can someone help me post it?
Well, considering Zumaya was groomed as a starter that may be something the club would be willing to revisit. Obviously he’s got plenty of fastball, but I also think his curve is pretty devastating and he at least throws a changeup from time to time. Obviously this is all cart before the horse talk. He’s got to make it back to the bigs in *any* capacity before any decisions can be made.
I also found the one that talks about Zumaya specifically, for anyone interested…
Yeah I hate the White Sox as well, but I love to watch Oz go on his tirades. I think the reason I dislike that club is 98% due to Hawk Harrelson…
Try this link:
http://drivelinemechanics.com/2008/04/27/your-input-joel-zumaya-part-two/
I think one of our commentors (Eric) is quoted…
Chris in Big D,
Yeah, Hawk and DJ are just INSUFFERABLE, it makes me cringe just thinking about them. They are a huge reason I hate that team, in addition to Pierszinksi, Crede, Uribe, O. Cabrera, Jenks and Dye.
I actually don’t have a huge problem with Beurhle, who seems like a class act, and Thome has been on so many teams it doesn’t bother. I am indifferent on Konerko.
The rest of them suck.
OK that link does get zapped. Google “Driveline Mechanics Zumaya” to find the article that (I think) Mark is talking about…
I’ll have to disagree with you, Mark, on your sentiments re: Konerko. I freaking hate him. Perhaps it’s from hearing “c’mon, Paulie” come out of the Hawk’s mouth so many times. You can put it on the booooaaaaard, yessss!
I hate the Sox because they are in first place and we’re not. Let’s spend 200 mil next year. The players need more money and maybe then…… they’ll leave it all on the field.
OK, here are the links to the stories. Billfer posted these on this site a few months back and they stuck with me. Note Bondo in one of the stories….
Inverted W
Zumaya
I think I have them posted, both articles. Googling “inverted W” and “inverted W, Zumaya” will get you there. “Driveline mechanics” in Google will work also, as Chris in D points out (thanks man).
However I have to gouge your eyes out for making me hear Hawk and DJ in my head with that incessant home run call.
He gone!
let’s see how you like it 😉
In fact, I just noticed that our very own Eric Cioe posted a comment in that Zumaya article. Eric, you have any thoughts on the subject?
Good comments.
I find Hawk and company to be the most annoying pair in baseball. They never have anything positive to say about their opponents.
Ozzie is out of his mind.
Anyhow, I’m off to the Coliseum for the Game soon. Go Tigers.
Keep the conversation lively
AAAAAHHHHH! The strikeout call is eminently more annoying than the HR call from those two yahoos. Most annoying broadcast tandems:
1. Hawk-DJ
2. Buck-McCarver
3. Impemba-Allen
Yeah, I went there.
Interesting articles – thanks. When I googled “inverted W, Zumaya” I got a lot of hits. One name that pooped up a couple times was Bonderman. If Bonderman and Zumaya have the same issue – why is one more suited to the pen than the other?
Also, if this particular part of his mechanics was thought to cause injury at some point – why didn’t the Tigers change it?
Sorry if these questions take us OT.
Tigercub makes the typo of the day. “pooped up”. lol. Anyways, my rudimentary understanding of mechanics would be that Bonderman has a strong base (legs) in his delivery. I haven’t actually seen Zumaya in such a long time I kinda forget what his mechanics look like to make a comparison in my head, though. I don’t know how much these studies on mechanics mean, though. Everyone lauded how perfect Mark Prior was mechanically and look at what happened to him. And then there’s Tim Lincecum who makes *my* shoulder hurt, and he seems to be quite durable thus far. Seems like kind of a crapshoot to me.
Couple of thing to ponder over.
1. Zumuya is eligible for arbitration next year if the Tigers bring him back this year. If he does not make it back to the majors, he is not eligible for arbitration until 201.
2. I agree that loss in velocity is an issue but not that big of one. Zumuya had movement on his fastball in 2006. Last year he was pitching straight balls over 100+. The batter gets his bat on the ball and you have instant homeruns. Same thing with Verlander. Had good movement on his fastball with velocity in 2006 and during his no hitter last year. This year, not as much movement and lower velocity equals higher ERA.
I am not worried about Zumuya’s velocity as much as his movement on the fastball. He can afford to go down in the high 90’s if he has the movement. Other issue is that if we bring him back, can he have an impact on our win/loss ratio. I vote for a very extended stay in the minors to prove what he can do but knowing DD, he will bring him back no matter what and in the process give Zumuya a huge salary for 2009 with little to nothing to prove for it since 2006.
Darn – now I can’t even go back and change it since I was called out. Stupid firefox spell checker
This is a great question, and it may be a combination of things. It may not be strictly the Inverted W that does so much damage, but having that in conjuction with other things (timing of the plant foot, etc.). Perhaps someone like Prior generated so much strength from his legs that he literally “blew out”, or exerted more than his shoulder and elbow could handle. It could also be a function of innings and usage. Bonderman was brough along slowly, gradually building innings each year. Prior jumped from 116 innings in 2002 to 211 in 2003 (thank you, Dusty Baker), and who knows what that could do? And genetics probably plays some role. I don’t know the answer to your question, those are some ideas to throw out there.
Also, after googling those terms, I was referring to the articles in the first link at the top of the page in each case. Not sure why one didn’t work, they were fine for me…
how exactly does one “poop up”? sounds messy.
😉
You don’t want to know.
Sounds like an infant maneuver.
Prior was also abused with some ridiculous pitch counts by Dusty so there’s that. Bonderman was capped at what, like 85 pitches in ’03? They handled him with kid gloves. I don’t really think there’s a such thing as “perfect” mechanics since the act of pitching a baseball is so unnatural. The fact that Zumaya throws with such tremendous velocity has to put more strain on his joints than Bonderman does. Humans weren’t meant to throw tiny baseballs 102 mph.
You White Sox haters will enjoy a interesting quirk over on Bless You Boys right now… the Current AL Central Standings show the White Sox having lost their last 105.
If only…
They also weren’t meant to catch boxes with their shoulders, or play fake guitar.
Mark in Chicago,
Yeah, I forgot I commented on that article. If it was something along the lines of, “he looks uncomfortable,” then I still think that.
Regarding Bonderman versus Zumaya on mechanics – look at Bonderman when his elbow is at the highest, and then look at Zumaya. Replicate each of them sitting in your computer chair. Bonderman’s arm mechanics probably aren’t great but they aren’t quite awful, and everything from the waiste down on him seems to work well. Looking at where Zumaya’s arm is before he releases the ball, it hurts. Try doing it. It isn’t comfortable.
Angus – Unless Zumaya gets optioned to the minors he will still be arb eligible. Time on the DL counts as service time, and a rehab stint while on the DL still counts as service time.
Bilfer, Thanks for the update. Appears that Zumuya will get his money whether he pans out or not. Hope that he can recover and settle down to be a force in our organization. Leave the keg stands and Guitar Hero to his younger brother.
The bullpen is just fine without them, trade them for some power hitters. 😉
Mechanics, shemanics. Hit the black with a little bit of movement at 85 mph. Simple.