A look back at the year that was here at Detroit Tigers Weblog:
Earlier in the week I posted my wins above replacement projections for the Tigers 2009 lineup. Today I turn my attention to the men on the mound.
For the projections I used the Marcel 2009 FIP projection for pitcher ERA (available at Fangraphs). In terms of innings pitched, I used some judgment. I penciled in Justin Verlander for 200 innings, and every other slot in the rotation for 180. Feel free to disagree with this, I won’t mind. But I think we can agree that the success of the team will largely hinge on the staff’s ability to stay healthy.
Continue reading Tigers 2009 WAR Projections – Pitchers
It seems as if calculating wins above replacement, or WAR, has become the cool thing to do this offseason. We’ve delved into WAR here in the past when evaluating contracts. Now Fangraphs has made WAR available to the masses. Detroit Tiger Tales has already taken a look at the 08 Tigers numbers. And now a call to action from Beyond the Boxscore has inspired me to project the 09 team numbers.
Continue reading Tigers WAR Projections
I just wanted to give a quick heads up that at some point over the next 24-48 hours you may experience some DTW downtime. I’m moving my site to a new hosting company and that would be the root cause. I could either break something (frighteningly likely) or there could be some funniness as the change propagates through DNS. Also, if you leave a comment between now and the move it may disappear. I’m not deleting it, but if the comment hits the old server instead of the new one, well, it will just be gone.
If you are having problems, drop me a note on twitter (@billfer). I’ll also post updates with problems/status there as well.
I’m doing this now because traffic and news usually dip around this time of year. Hopefully it won’t be too disruptive.
Thanks for your patience.
UPDATE: It appears that everything is moved over and complete. Hopefully this speeds things up on the site a little bit, and resolves the downtime that the site has been experiencing. My former host said I had outgrown their site, and DTW was the site crashing their servers. I don’t get that exactly, especially on low volume days, but I’ve moved up from shared hosting to a virtual private server so let’s hope this works.
Buster Olney weighs in on how the economy is impacting team spending:
Throughout baseball, budgets are being downsized from week to week to reflect the latest read on the economy, and what you are about to see — once the smoke clears from the Sabathia and Burnett and Teixeira news conferences — is a stunning drop in salaries for the free agents, a time when solid veteran players might be fortunate to get one-year offers for $5 million to $8 million. General managers throughout the game are reporting, on background, that their payrolls are being locked down, cut down, slashed.
It’s a topic that I’ve speculated on (mostly in the video chats) as it relates to the Tigers. Before the global recession hammered the Big 3 and they had to go looking to the government for money, Dave Dombrowski said he was looking at a payroll in line with last year. But with a dip in attendance that could likely go beyond the slippage due to the team’s disappointing 2008, plus a potential loss of GM sponsorship money, the Tigers could be in a different mindset.
Did they save money on the Adam Everett, Gerald Laird, and Matt Treanor deals, or were they spending what they had to spend? Was Edwin Jackson acquired because $3 million is all they have to invest in the rotation?
With $105 million committed to 14 players, and a likely $9-10 million committed to Fernando Rodney, Marcus Thames, Gerald Laird, Edwin Jackson, and Bobby Seay, That leaves about $15-$20 million to cover Justin Verlander*, 4 guys earning the minimum, and an upgrade to the bullpen. Plus I don’t know if Renteria’s $3 million buyout counts against the total.
That’s the bad news. The good news is that as Olney points out, prices are dropping. And for those worried about the Tigers lack of moves in the bullpen, it isn’t a cause for concern yet. It’s still a buyers market with Brian Fuentes, Trevor Hoffman, Brandon Lyon, and Juan Cruz available. Fuentes and Cruz are undesirable due to the cost of second round draft picks. But as a group there are 4 arms, 3 of which should be in the Tigers price range, and all of which would be an upgrade.
Now if the calendar flips to February, and the four aforementioned guys are packing bags for other destinations, then I’ll join you in being uneasy about a bullpen made up of last year’s incumbents, Casey Fien, and the draft class of 2008.
The next edition of Detroit Tigers Weblog Live will be tonight at 10 p.m. You can check back at this here post tonight, or get the show on the ustream.tv site. There isn’t a lot of news to cover at this point, so I plan to hit on the Matt & Misty May Treanor speculation, the bullpen situation, and some fan experience stuff. And if you watched the last prime time edition, I won’t be drinking Michelob Ultra this time.
I’d like to get to 50 live users so tell your friends that after the Wings game and 30 Rock are done, to tune in.
Links from today’s show:
Lee Panas of Detroit Tiger Tales recently interviewed Curtis Granderson. Lee asked several thoughtful questions and Granderson responded with some pretty thoughtful answers. My favorite was an exchange about Granderson’s defense last season:
TT: In the past, you have indicated that you take pride in your defense and that you have worked hard on that part of your game. Are you happy with the progress you have made in that area?
CG: This past year’s defense, I actually took a step back, so I wasn’t happy with my play in the 2008 season. I felt that being out with the broken finger and not be able to run while injured put me a step behind once I returned to the lineup and I never fully got back to where I wanted to be. So this 2009 season, I must get myself two steps ahead of where I want to be, and get back to playing the defense that I want to play.
It’s nice to hear a player admit when there was a shortcoming in his game. After each season Granderson has had one major area where he needed to improve. After 2006 it was cutting down on strikeouts. After 2007 it was hitting lefties. This year’s task is defense. His success on the other fronts and the recognition about his own performance is what makes me think 2008 will just be a blip.
Official Tiger of DTW and Billfer, Curtis Granderson, will be hosting his second annual charity basketball game. The game supports the Grand Kids Foundation, which in turn supports Michigan’s Inner City schools.
Continue reading Help a centerfielder out
Wrapping up the winter meetings…
In this episode I talk of disappointment with the Matt Joyce trade and why I don’t think Edwin Jackson is the guy to get. I also talk about how James Skelton shouldn’t have been left exposed in the Rule 5 draft. I speculate about whether or not the failed auto loan will impact the team.
Links from the show:
Things started out so promising with the acquisitions of Gerald Laird and Adam Everett. And they end so disappointingly with the loss of James Skelton and Matt Joyce. To be fair the Skelton thing was set in motion weeks ago when the Tigers chose not to protect a young athletic lefty catcher with a 416 career minor league OBP.
Continue reading Winter meetings end with a bang (my head against the wall)
On the last day of the Winter Meetings things shift a little bit to the Rule 5 draft. Okay, not everything shifts to that, but it will be the focus in this here blog post.
A quick rule 5 primer is that teams can’t bury players in the minors forever. Eventually they have to add them to the 40 man roster or risk losing them to other teams. The time limit for this varies based on the player’s age when they signed. Teams with open space on their 40 man roster can select from this pool of players, but the catch is said player has to stay on the 25 man roster all season, or the player has to be offered back to the original team.
Continue reading Winter Meetings – Heading to Day 4