Things are really starting to pick up for the Tigers after a slow start to the offseason. Ken Rosenthal is reporting that Detroit has agreed to a one year, one million dollar contract with some incentives. The deal is contingent on Everett passing a physical, but the Tigers must feel confident that his shoulder is healed after watching him workout yesterday.
Presumably Everett will split time with Ramon Santiago. Analysis will be forthcoming. In the meantime check out a wins-above-replacement analysis of the shortstops the Tigers were targeting.
The quick and dirty is: 1. Everett is a steal at one million 2. The left side of the infield looks to be very solid. 3. The bottom third of the order will likely be close-your-eyes bad. 4. Jack Wilson talk should subside until at least the trade deadline. 5. The Tigers have filled 2 needs and haven’t spent anything.
UPDATE: Despite an earlier denial by Dave Dombrowski this appears to be moving towards official. The denial is likely procedural until the MRI is done – which probably includes an MRI on the shoulder.
My thoughts haven’t changed too much, but in terms of value Everett is within a half win of Jack Wilson at a fraction of the cost. Or as Dave Cameron said in his analysis about the Tigers moves today:
This is a pretty massive steal for the Tigers, and along with the Gerald Laird trade earlier today, they’ve added something like three wins to their roster in 12 hours and spent a grand total of about $4 million to do so.
Heck of a day for Dave Dombrowski.
This offseason rules.
Well, that’s an upgrade with the leather at least. Can’t hit a lick, though.
Glad we did this and did not overpay to get Jack Wilson. Given the pluses and minuses for all our options I thought this was the best one. Now lets go get a closer and and some more pitching.
the pressure is on Brandon Inge to hit like a big boy. That means going back up the middle and not chasing the slider down and away. He’s shown flashes of this ability in the past, but never consistently. I am skeptical he can do it for a full season, but I hope I am wrong.
If it means a dropoff in power, so be it. He needs to put the ball in play so as to avoid turning the last third of the order into a complete black hole.
Now bring me the arms of Kerry Wood and Brandon Lyon!
I’ve gotta say one thing. Not about any of these moves in particular, but about Dave Dombrowski in general. The dude doesn’t waste any time. Seriously, after like 2 hours of the winter meetings beginning, he’s done. It was the same thing last year. I’ll bet he calls restraunts ahead of time with his order so it’s ready the moment he walks in.
YAAYYYYYYYYYY VERY VERY CHEAP 2 WOW
I can get behind this move. In my analysis (thanks for the link, Bill!), I backed Cesar Izturis, but I said I could get behind whoever comes cheapest and it’s damn hard to get cheaper than $1 million.
so how much money do they have left to sign guys for the bullpen and maybe another starter?
it’s damn hard to get cheaper than $1 million.
On the surface, that statement sounds absurd. (Of course, I know what you mean).
Haha, Chris, I typed it out and then kind of paused and went “wait, what?” in my head.
We finally have what looks like a lineup for the Tigers. It doesn’t look anything as good as last year starting off, but this is a MUCH better defensive club than last year, especially if Guillen can adjust to LF.
CF Granderson
2B Polanco
RF Ordonez
1B Cabrera
LF Guillen
DH Sheffield (yuck)
C Laird
3B Inge
SS Everett
I’m guessing 7 and 8 could be switched, but Bilfer is dead on, the bottom of our lineup is going to be dreadful, but as someone said earlier, maybe Inge can have a decent year at the plate, but I’m not holding my breath. I think the defensive upgrade is worth the slip at the bottom of the order though in the long run.
Woo-hoo!
Is a reliever next?
So far, so good. Also encouraging is that they haven’t signed any more of Leyland’s old favorites from his previous managing days (Mesa, N.Perez, Sheffield, etc.). Now on to the pitching.
Kerry Wood would really be the icing on the ham sandwich here. Let’s cross our fingers.
i’m only worried about the emphasis on the big bats to compensate for the bottom of the order. Last year they compensated to the tune of being shut out a TON.
We can probably start calling the ’09 team the ‘800-run Tigers’. With the potential for more close scoring games, I would imagine we are going to see Everett pinch-hit for quite a bit late in games – or at least I hope so. Is the bench good/flexible enough under the circumstances? Assuming the defense will be much improved, can the starters go deeper into games and take some of the pressure off the bullpen?
Good call Vince. The bench will be key. We might need to keep a guy like Thames around for those 8th and 9th inning pinch hitting situations. We will almost have a NL-style lineup this season.
I’m guessing at this point if we keep 12 pitcers as we always do, the bench will look like Ryan, Sanitago, Joyce, Larrish/Thames?
tiff,
I agree. The offense is still pretty one-dimensional, and there is less of it. Even with the improved D, the pitching needs a vast improvement to get them above .500
while the bottom of the order is suspect, I think Laird will be a pleasant surprise, and most likely an upgrade over pudge. Now just bring home an established closer, an experienced and effective starter – – and I am totally on board with the lovefest for Lyon!
Just used the Lineup Analysis tool on Baseball Musings for that lineup that Chris (In Nashville) posted, and this is what I got:
That lineup would produce 5.139 runs per game, which is 833 runs if that starting 9 played every single inning of every game all next year.
In 2008 we scored 821 runs in an injury plagued, underachieving season.
Chris in N,
There is only one reserve infielder on your bench list, which is exactly what my concern is, especially if we have to pull Everett on a regular basis. One possible solution to this would be to maintain some roster flexibility by going to an 11-man staff from time to time. The Twins do this occasionally, but then they tend to be pretty deep in pirching. The Tigers may not (so far anyway) have the personnel to do this, and besides, it doesn’t seem likely that Leyland would entertain this option.
I’m not so pessimistic about the bottom of the order myself. Inge is going to have a better year, Laird is hardly a black hole, and I think Santiago is going to get plenty of playing time and do fairly well. No worries about the lineup, but the bench… wasting a roster spot on a guy who can do nothing but DH makes me wish they’d go with 11 pitchers.
Pitching at center stage now. This is the big deal.
Mike R,
Runs were down in the AL last year if I recall correctly. Off hand do you know which teams reached or exceeded their projected totals? I’m guessing the Twinkies overachieved.
Vince, I was thinking Santiago could back up both 2B and SS and Larrish would back up at the corner spots, but doesnt’ leave a place for Joyce and Thames. One of them would have to be gone and I would guess it would be Thames. As you said, not much flexibility there, which is why Raburn could find his way on the team as well.
I’m with you Vince as well on a 11 man pitching staff, but I don’t remember one time since Leyland has been there that we have done that. We’ve even gone with 13 pitchers before, so I’m guessing it will be 12. I just hope the 12 we have on Opening Day will be better than last Opening Day.
Good point, Loon. Santiago in a limited role has shown some ability to contribute. The concerns were over him playing every day, not on a spotty basis.
I still believe the smartest move would have been to trade Guillen, as we could have gotten far more in return without losing production in LF. Joyce and Thames could have platooned there, and presumably we could have snagged a better shortstop or catcher. Or bullpen arms. Maybe it still happens, but I doubt it.
Leyland would have none of that, I’m sure. I hope Carlos stays healthy and has a monster (900 OPS) year.
Wow, I’m not sure Everett would be a steal if the Tigers were getting paid a million dollars. The man has not had an OPS about 70 in four years and his career high OPS is 80. A Santiago/Everett platoon is perfect if you’re shooting to go 75-87. That’s a Royals-quality platoon. He’s a deft fielder, but if he’s getting more than 200 ab’s than this team is in a world of hurt.
Vince and Tiff,
yes the Tigers were shut out quite a few times (11 i think) and outscored by a more “balanced” Twins team, but i don’t see those two things repeating themselves. the Tigers were in large part a different offensive team in the second half of the season (only 2 shutouts vs 9 in the first half). they’ll hopefully benefit from having a healthy Granderson and AL-adjusted Cabrera right out of the gates this season, and those two things might go a looong ways on their own to improving the team’s offense in spite of an anticipated weak bottom of the order (Granderson was missing for 4/9 first-half shutouts and M Cab didn’t really come around until June).
i’m not saying we’ll come close to 1000 runs, but i think 800 is selling this group short considering what 2/3 of the lineup is capable of doing. in any case, i’m thankful that we finally have concrete moves to talk about!
Stephen, stop trying to drag us into your black hole of evil!
stephen,
when the top 2/3 of your order consists of granderson, polanco, cabrera, ordonez, guillen and thames/joyce, you can almost afford to spot the other team three outs per cycle as long as those bottom three can prevent runs. even if a season could turn on one position, the effect of the Tigers ’09 SS on the team’s W-L numbers is likely to have slightly more to do with defense than offense.
edit: however, it would still be nice if the Tiger’s got paid $1mil for Everett…
Pinch hitting for Everett late in games would be counterintuitive. You got him for his glove, which is why you’ll need him in late inning situations. I imagine you’ll see him bunt late in close games rather then be pulled entirely. I also imagine Santiago will get his fair share of starts and Everett will come off the bench for defensive purposes if the game is close.
D-Fence boom boom, D-Fence boom boom
if he can come here and replicate 2006 and so can Inge in terms of D and O it’ll be soooooo guuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuurate!
What Dre said basically
plus you’ve got Ingy next to him,
if both are healthy YIKES! (well maybe break Inge’s toe)
Namesake in Dallas, I’m not saying PH hit Everett when we are ahead, but rather when we are behind and need the runs in the 8th or 9th inning. Santiago is a more than capable late inning replacement if we need to PH for Everett.
2 holes plugged for $4 mil. This puts the Tigers back in on Kerry Wood; they have the money now. And they are still in on JJ Putz. I say do both. Then they would have a chance at contending if Sheffield hits remotely like Sheffield, Inge and Everett can hit .240+, and Willis can get it back together and win 12+ games.
Everett’s defensive metrics were still good this last year even though he was hurt. I guess the shoulder impacted mainly his throwing. He is supposedly healthy, but then Renteria was supposedly a defensive improvement over Guillen. But if Everett can play at his usual level he is a ++ defender. I think he plays everyday and gets pinch hit for in the late innings when they are behind. Santiago seems better in the back up role and is equally adept at SS or 2B.
I like these moves not because Laird or Everett are great players (they aren’t) but because they have arguably filled 2 gaping holes inexpensively and left some cash to address the pitching needs. Now they need to get the pitcher(s).
Chris in D,
Concerning pinch-hitting for Everett late in the game (8th inning on), I think it really depends on the situation:
If you are winning, no problem, he bats.
If the game is tied, it has to be taken into consideration (# outs, men on, etc.).
If you are losing, 90% of the time you almost have to hit for him, regardless of the situation (with a man on first and none out maybe you have him bunt).
He is too weak with the stick to be depended on to drive in a run in a late inning critical situation.
In case anyone is curious, Chris Shelton has been traded to Seattle. His magical tour of marginal AL West teams continues.
The cheap price alone is reason enough to like this. In layman’s terms, he’s half the price of Neifi Perez!
DD has not confirmed this yet:
http://www.mlive.com/tigers/index.ssf/2008/12/tigers_agree_to_terms_with_sho.html
Vince in MN: I just grabbed the data from Baseball Musing’s offense predictions last year and then got the actual runs scored for each team in 2008. Here’s the spreadsheet.
Last year, Baseball Musings’ method, when averaging out the predicted runs scored totals for each team, predicted 5 runs per game for each team which becomes ~810 in a season for the ‘average’ team. The median R/G total was 4.975 and for a whole season was 806 — so, the average works for this.
The average team last year scored 752.83 runs, or 753. Basically, Baseball Musings over-predicted, collectively, by 57 runs (median actual runs last year was 759).
While being ‘wrong ‘ by 57 runs may sound like a lot, that’s basically being wrong by 1.9 runs for each team — pretty good when you think about it. I ran a correlation on predicted runs and actual runs scored and it came up as 0.616 which isn’t that bad, all things considered (trades, injuries, luck, etc.).
stephen-
And yet Adam Everett has been good enough to be the starting SS on a pennant-winner.
This is a great day for people who like scrappy white guys.
Chuck —
And who DOESN’T??!? 🙂
I was all for the Tigers picking up Jack Wilson over a year ago until Carlos Guillen threw a fit and said it better be an “all-star”. We had our all-star. I’ll take the scrappy white guy, instead. Now, on to pitching!
I was just looking at Everett’s 2008 stats, and noticed that Jeff Francis INTENTIONALLY walked him on May 18. I understand that a pitcher was likely batting next, but still — the guy was hitting .213!
@rings – I’d say it is procedural. DD can’t confirm anything until it is a done deal and it isn’t a done deal until they get the physical done which probably (hopefully) involves an MRI of the shoulder.
@stephen – A healthy Everett is an Ozzie Smith class defender at short (sans backflips). He will likely split time at shortstop with Santiago, but in limited time he could easily be +15 plays. Value comes in different packages. It’s not all done with the bat.
MLB has it posted now, so I’d guess its confirmed:
http://view.ed4.net/v/I5TWL3/5CWAM3/FMWQST/2O8942/MAILACTION=1&FORMAT=H?partnerId=ed-2151636-55436743&source=ed-2151636-55436743
Billfer,
Watched the Video, it was good.
I agree………. value comes in different packages. Lets see how it goes with the back end. Jim will have to manage the rest. I hope that these guys get timely hits even if they dont carry a hitting type bat. Is Thames the right guy on the bench to keep a rally going? He has power for sure but what about just getting on base to keep a rally going.
A decent closer can fill a lot of gaps.
I hope our new found happiness is not just for being happy that we made a move, but for moves that worked. ie lots of moves last year and not all were really happiness flowing gems in July.
Thanks again for the Blog. For a Tigers fan its really great.
The Tigers start off in Toronto next year including a day game so a night game followed by a day game at the begining of the season is looking great and something to look forward to.
Merry Christmas to all and to all a good night
Steve
PS We asked Santa to have a poster to compete with Loon AAAAAHHHHHHHHHhhhh 😉
Agree on these cheapies better free up money for a Kerry Wood type, but even that move would need some insurance because a pen headed by Wood-Rodney-Zumaya probably has more DL time than service time.
Hate to double post (want to check if the avatar thing worked).
The infield defense should be a lot better, but that outfield on the other hand. Granderson can’t cover the entire territory, because Magglio is average at best and who knows what or how long Guillen can last in left.
Of course, this time last year they were trying to sell us that Jacque Jones was a defensive upgrade and we all know how that turned out.
Firstly, Mike it Ct, best avatar ever! If anyone has not seen Conan’s old timey baseball skit you best go to youtube and check it out.
I agree that Everett is a great fielder and Laird is decent, but I just don’t see the signing of someone who is possibly the weakest hitter in the American League, if he’s a regular, and a Gregg Zaun clone for catcher as a reason for rejoicing. Yeah, they’re cheap and I guess that’s great, but I’m looking for a playoff team, not a 4th place team.
And if someone can point me to a recent AL champion with a slick-fielding National League left side of an infield, where it’s quite possible that Inge and Everett will combine for an OBA below .300, let me know. This team just seems a collection of two or three tool players with the exception of Granderson. You just can’t win with a passel of one dimensional players whether they are great offense players or great defensive players.
@stephen – but when the best available offensive shortstops are rafael furcal and edgar renteria, what do you want the Tigers to do? Furcal is out of the Tigers price range, and the organization thinks that Iorg is at least a 4 tool player in the minors so they don’t want to block him. Renteria nobody wants. So instead they could go give up prospects from a depleted system for Jack Wilson who projects to be all of a half win better than Everett in total contribution for what purpose? An empty .270 batting average?
@billfer- I hear you, but praising this move is like congratulating Napolean on saving 10% of the French Army on his retreat from Moscow. Dombrowski grossly overpaid for Renteria, refused to offer arbitration so there’s no draft picks, and now signs a guy who hit .213 and if he starts will probably be the worst offensive shortstop in the AL. I guess you could say he did the best under the circumstances, but Dombrowski was the one who created the circumstances.
Mike R,
Thanks a lot on finding the runs predicted data. For some strange reason I had a feeling that you would have this at your fingertips!
Looking at the final figures, what really surprised me was not so much that the Twins (+40) overachieved along with the Rangers (+46), while the other 12 teams underachieved, but that the Yankees (-165) and Athletics (-187) flopped by as much as they did. The Tigers (-87) actually don’t look that bad in comparison. All those shutouts early on probably contributed to an exaggerated sense of offensive aenemia.
On the other hand, they did score about 90 of those runs in five games, the bullpen blew about 30 games or so, and who could forget the time Leyland showed up dressed in a Lloyd McClendon suit when he was supposed to be serving his suspension (the cigarette gave him away). 2008 really was a strange year.
“Dombrowski was the one who created the circumstances.”
stephen, you’re right only in so far as he made the trades. plenty of improbable things happened after the trades to leave the Tigers where they finished last year. i don’t think you can argue much in the way of the Tigers needing to improve on last years offensive numbers. while they weren’t where many thought (and hoped) they would be, the team was hardly anemic in the run scoring dept. you can argue that they were inconsistent, but that’s not the same as saying they didn’t have the offensive talent to compete. on the other hand, defense was an issue. DD seems to have addressed this need adequately (assuming everett is/stays healthy), while not giving up too much in terms of money or prospects.
i’ve learned not to look at the team with rose-colored glasses after last year, but i think that we’re closer to contention now than we were before these deals and that they were probably some of the best considering.
and stephen, please, as a french-man i must ask you to limit your Napolean -Russia references…it pains us greatly to be reminded of that defeat. also, try to steer clear of Waterloo, and most of the 20th century…ok all the 20th century.
I am also concerned about the scarcity of infield backup, especially considering the range that Inge and Everett have. Unless they employ unusual positioning, clearly there will be times when they both occupy the same space which often leads to injury.
I’m not entirely enthused by either of these guys. Yes they fill holes but unless they have career years they will not be difference makers. Pitching remains our greatest need.
But by getting adequate players for cheap, that leaves more money for pitching. The Tigers have several holes to fill and a limited budget to do it on.
I do expect Everett to be the worst offensive shortstop in the league, but I don’t expect him to be the worst shortstop in the league by a large margin. It would be nice to have stars and 5 tool players at every position but that ain’t ever gonna happen.
I’m not saying DD didn’t create the circumstances, but would you have rather risked Renteria back at $9 million (I actually would have)? Many wouldn’t. And looking at Renteria’s 2 year deal after the fact isn’t fair either because does he still get that same deal if a team surrenders a first or second rounder? Maybe, but it’s far from a given.
The Minnesota Twins have been making a playoff push year after year with guys like Nick Punto and Alexi Casilla in their lineup. Oh and Adam Everett. Carlos Gomez got 577 ABs for them last year and posted a 258/296/360 line. Not good. They are regularly near the bottom of baseball in home runs; they compete largely because of defense and pitching. The Tigers have plugged two holes defensively at minimal cost, and now have some wiggle room to work with on the pitching side of things. I would take Granderson, Cabrera, Ordonez, Guillen and even Sheffield over Mauer and Morneau any day.
I’m not saying the Tigers will win the division, but they are a better team now than they were last year. That’s all we can ask for.
Andre —
To me, the Laird and Everett acquisitions are kind of like the Suez Crisis… oh crap, sorry.
You will all like Adam Everett when the team ERA falls by at least a half a run.
I like him already. His face is perfect for Samara’s TigerCat illustrations.