Yearly Archives: 2008

2008 Season, Previews

Baseball America is kinda excited about the Tigers

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Baseball America published their MLB previews and predictions today. Unfortunately most of it is premium content. But I will let you know that they have Detroit winning it all, Miguel Cabrera taking home MVP honors, and Justin Verlander finishing as Cy Young runner up.

In other preview news, the Baseball Crank is running his Established Win Shares series again this year and started with the AL Central. The system likes the Tigers to take the division over the Indians. The first line of his analysis very succinctly sums up the Tigers outlook this year:

The Tigers are loaded with prime and veteran talent, but also have more question marks than the Riddler.

2008 Season, Injuries, Roster Management

And then there was one, or maybe two

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Todd Jones 3-13-08
Todd Jones pitches a 1-2-3 inning against the Braves
Credit Roger DeWitt

That would be spots available in the seven man bullpen. Jim Leyland ended some of the speculation today by announcing that Todd Jones, Bobby Seay, Tim Byrdak, Jason Grilli, and Zach Miner were locks. The ambiguity now surrounds Fernando Rodney and his health. A healthy Rodney would of course be a part of the plan, but that seems unlikely at this point.

Of the aforementioned locks, the first 3 weren’t a mystery in the least. Grilli was also fairly assured of a spot because he’s a Leyland favorite. But Zach Miner wasn’t a given in my mind. Not that Miner isn’t deserving, but that his option status afforded the team some flexibility that Denny Bautista, Yorman Bazardo, and Francisco Cruceta couldn’t. And while it would really be a blow for Miner to go to Toledo, there’s a very strong likelihood that injury or ineffectiveness would lead to a call-up at some point.

Given that Cruceta hasn’t even made it into the country yet, he of course has to be considered a very long shot at this point. However, his visa struggles could play to the Tigers advantage in that he could probably clear waivers while MIA.

With Rodney likely to start the year on the DL, it will give the Tigers a chance to take an extended look at Bautista and Bazardo. Neither could be sent to the minors without clearing waivers. Officially Preston Larrison and Aquilino Lopez are still in the mix, as is Freddy Dolsi. But it wouldn’t make practical sense to take them at the expense of risking the loss of some valuable bullpen depth.

Other stuff

2008 Season, Players, Spring Training

Can you teach an old catcher new tricks?

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Pudge Rodriguez’s power surge has been a pleasant surprise this spring. With two more homers today, he now has a MLB leading six for the spring. But as Jason Beck notes, Pudge is focusing less on the homers, and more on being patient. This is a guy after all, that is one of only 4 players since 2003 to have more than 500 plate appearances in a season and fewer than 15 walks. And he did it twice!

Still, Pudge sez:

“No, I don’t think I’ve had a Spring Training like that as far as home runs. But I don’t look for that. It’s good, yes. I have six home runs in Spring Training. The main thing about it is I’m just doing what I want to do and just be more selective at the plate, try to hit some strikes and take the balls. I’m just trying to see 4-5 pitches per at-bat. That’s what I’m trying to do. And so far, that’s what I’m doing. I’m feeling pretty good about that.”

Keep in mind here that Pudge’s pitch selection in 2007 wasn’t just poor, it was horrendous. Using pitch f/x data from last year we saw that a typical big leaguer would offer at 29% of pitchers out of the strike zone. Rodriguez was around 50%.

As for the 4-5 pitches per PA, that would be quite a jump. Beck noted that Rodriguez ranked near the bottom in terms of pitchers per PA last year when he averaged 3.51. But that was actually the most pitches he’s seen since becoming a Tigers with rates of 3.44, 3.33, and 3.39. In fact the 3.51 was the 2nd highest mark of his career.

Rodriguez’s ability to carry this over into the regular season would seem to be far fetched. Still, this is a contract year which may provide some extra motivation to be a more complete hitter. Secondly, he’s had some early success this spring which should provide some positive reinforcement that the approach is working. Third, he’ll be in a great lineup. Okay, that last one doesn’t make a lot of sense but it is a popular refrain for why players will do really well for the Tigers this year.

Links

links for 2008-03-12

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2008 Season, Spring Training

Rick Porcello to Lakeland and other cuts

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The Tigers trimmed the first 12 players from big league camp today. As expected Rick Porcello was among those sent out. What wasn’t a given was his destination. But now we know his contract was optioned to Lakeland.

The other players to be set to inor league camp are: Armando Galarraga, Macay McBride, Jeff Gerbe, Joe Bowen, Dusty Ryan, James Skelton,Jeff Larish, Danny Worth, Matt Joyce, Wilkin Ramirez, and Clete Thomas.

Those earning a longer look include infielders Mike Hollimon and Scott Sizemore.

2008 Season, Injuries, Pitching, Spring Training

Good news for Tigers pen?

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Given the rash of bad news with injuries, shellackings, and visa problems hitting the Tigers bullpen, today was a nice change.

  • Denny Bautista continued to pitch well. He went 2 scoreless innings with 4 K’s and is going to be hard to leave behind when the team heads North.
  • Jordan Tata, who wasn’t a strong candidate for the pen but would be counted on for depth, received news that he should be able to start throwing again in 3 weeks.
  • Yorman Bazardo and Jason Grilli also turned in strong performances today. Granted it was one day, but it’s better than a kick in the teeth.
  • Clay Rapada, another long shot arm for the pen but also a depth guy, threw a bullpen session. It was the first time on a mound since the 2nd week of camp.

The less good news had to do with Todd Jones. While no one seems worried, a lack of arm strength is pretty troubling. It sounds like he’s confident he can build up the strength, but what if he can’t?

I’ll leave you with a happy thought though. Rick Porcello looked very good, save for one breaking ball that floated over everyone’s heads. He got into the proverbial kitchen of a few guys in his 2 innings of work and nothing was hit hard against him. It’s the first time I’ve seen him on the mound save for still shots, and he doesn’t look like a guy fresh out of high school.

2008 Season, Injuries, Pitching

Porcello and moving pictures

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The Tigers are going the split squad route today with a home game against the Reds (Dontrelle Willis) and a road tilt against the Indians (Yorman Bazardo). For those with MLB.tv they’ll be able to catch the road game which is set to feature Rick Porcello.

Also of note today, Todd Jones is slated to pitch in the Reds game. Jones of course hasn’t been good this spring and is trying to fix mechanical problems.

If you’re following either game feel free to post your thoughts.

Bullpen woes continue to abound as Fernando Rodney’s throwing session was pushed back two days. I learned that from an overly dire Freep headline: “More bullpen bad news – Zach Miner and Fernando Rodney both suffer setbacks.” Turns out Miner’s setback was that he allowed a homer.

Meanwhile former Tigers farmhand Randor Bierd, who was lost in the Rule 5 draft to the Orioles, has developed some kind of super mystery pitch.

Links

links for 2008-03-10

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2008 Season, Trade Rumors

Could “Inge Situation” be resolved this week?

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Lynn Henning devoted a lot of words to the travails of Brandon Inge today. He had a lengthy piece in this morning’s paper exploring the human side of the situation. And in a blog entry Henning postulates that a trade will come by the end of the week.

The Dodgers are the popular rumor at the moment due to the injury to their third baseman Andy LaRoche. Still, as South Side Sox points out, Joe Crede might make a more attractive target for LA. Crede and Inge are equals at third base defensively. But Crede beats Inge offensively and is only owed one year. Inge has the advantage in versatility, but we know the whole deal for Inge is to not be versatile.

As for today, Inge was 1 for 2 with a sacrifice fly and another walk. He’s hitting .316 this spring with 8 walks.

2008 Season, Pitching, Spring Training

Let the Todd Jones hand wringing begin

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What do you get when you take an unsettled bullpen, a closer who kinda makes people nervous on a good day, and two craptacular spring outings? A recipe for Todd Jones hysteria.

Today Todd Jones turned in his second awful outing of the spring in what turned out to be a 9-7 Tigers win. Jones didn’t make it out of the 9th inning before surrendering 4 runs on 4 hits and a walk. Last week Jones was hammered for 6 runs in an inning of work.

Is there reason to be concerned? It’s hard to say sitting here in Michigan. Jason Beck noted after Jones’s first bad outing that it’s tough to gauge closers in the spring when they are coming into the 4th inning of games. Well today Jones came into the 9th inning of a game. I’m not sure the fact that he was facing minor leaguers makes the situation worse or better. On one hand he should dominate these kids. On the other hand that adrenaline rush that closers supposedly rely on probably wasn’t there either.

Beck blogged that Jones was working on locating his fastball today. He clearly wasn’t doing it well based on the results. But Beck also notes that Jones isn’t injured which is the most important thing. If there were reports coming out that Jones was velocity was down, or that he had no movement on his pitches I would definitely be more concerned. At this point though I’m willing to chalk his struggles up to “working on things.”

2008 Season, Fan Experience

DTW Meet in San Francisco

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Unfortunately this isn’t something I’ll be able to participate in, but Craig Colwell is offering to coordinate an outing for our West Coast Tigers fans. Here is what Craig asked me to post:

Tigers vs Giants

June 16,17,18 in San Francisco

If there is enough interest from Tiger fans here on the left coast or from out of towners, wanting to visit one of great ball parks in the country (excluding Comerica), I will buy a block of tickets for one or more of the games.

I am thinking baseball and a few drinks before or after the game or both.

If you haven’t been to ATT Park, it is a great baseball experience.

If interested email Craig at ccolwell [at] sonic dot net

I know that at a Mariners game last year there was a large contingent of Tigers fans and DTW readers, but they were all on their own. Thanks to Craig for offering to unite the group.

Also this seems like a good time to mention that there is a Detroit Tigers Weblog page on Facebook. I’m not really sure how to leverage this, but all the cool kids are doing it. So if you’re a Facebooker, you can become a DTW fan.

2008 Season, Trade Rumors

Tigers linked to crappy relievers

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The Tigers bullpen is clearly the least settled area of the team. The lineup is known, the starting rotation is known, but only a couple of pieces of the bullpen are known. What was already an area of the team that seemed vulnerable is further hampered by the late arrival of Francisco Cruceta and the barking shoulder of Fernando Rodney. So it’s only natural that the Tigers would look to add to the bullpen, which will of course breed trade rumors. The only problem is that the names the Tigers have been linked to just aren’t very good – and most likely not better than what they could get for free.

The latest rumors making the rounds involve the Mets who have had some injuries woes of their own in the outfield. New York needs some right handed pop in the outfield. The Tigers have Marcus Thames. The Mets have some extra arms in the pen. But the names that are being mentioned should cause some concern.

Scott Schoeneweis and Jorge Sosa were the first names being floated.

Schoeneweis has a multitude of things working against him. He’s walked a batter every other inning over the last 2 years, and complements that with a poor strike out ratio of 5.2 per 9 innings. Plus he’s left handed, which with Tim Byrdak and Bobby Seay around isn’t a pressing need for Detroit. And he’s owed $3.6 million each of the next 2 years. So he’s redundant, expensive, and is a couple years removed from his last good season (2005).

Jorge Sosa is cheaper (owed $2 million in 2008), but with problems of his own. Over his last 6 seasons hitters have connected for line drives over 21% of the time with peripherals similar to Schoeneweis. He was awful in 2006, and was below average last year. In 2005 he posted a 2.55 ERA, but with a WHP of 1.4 I’m not sure how.

Earlier in the week there was talk of Ryan Dempster as a potential target from the Cubs. But again, it’s for a below average player that would come at too high of a cost in terms of dollar and players.

Now I realize that the players that were rumored to be in the discussions from the Tigers side (Inge, Thames) aren’t going to fetch an impact reliever. Not to say they don’t provide value to the Tigers, just that they are unlikely to bring much in a trade. But the names that have been mentioned coming to the Tigers aren’t the kind of people you pay for. The same type of production is what should theoretically be found for free in your farm system, or as non roster invites. This is the type of production you get for the league minimum.

I’m all for upgrading the bullpen, but I don’t see the above mentioned players providing more than Bazardo, Cruceta, Bautista, Miner, Grilli, Larrison, Lopez, etc. can provide. They are veterans, but all that shows is a track record of – at their very best – mediocrity. They certainly don’t represent an upgrade that is worth bearing a cost in terms of players or payroll.