Yearly Archives: 2008

Contracts

Granderson gets multi-year deal

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Buster Olney is reporting that Curtis Granderson has signed a multiyear contract. Terms weren’t not available. More to come later. (h/t Motown Sports)

UPDATE: It’s official. A five year deal with a club option for 2013. The Tigers buyout his arbitration years and first year of free agency. ESPN reports that the contract is for $30.25 million. Not sure on the option at this point. It’s a great deal for the Tigers. Again, more to come later.

Notes from the conference call

  • Dombrowski is thrilled and said it “is a great day for the Tigers organization.”
  • Granderson is excited to be a part of this (the team, the city) for a long time to come.
  • Granderson’s agent Matt Brown said that it was great dealing with John Westhoff and Dave Dombrowski. He also thanked Mike Ilitch for the confidence that he showed.
  • Granderson is excited and appreciative that it got done now, knowing that the Tigers didn’t have to make a move like this at this time (not being arb or FA eligible)
  • On the length of the contract and possibly foregoing bigger dollars, Granderson recognized that he got some security and that he doesn’t know what could happen over the next 5 years. Brown followed up and noted that in these types of situations the club is assuming all the risk, but that it’s a win for both sides because he’s at the top of the heap for pre-arbitration players.
  • Dombrowski said his willingness to do a long term deal was due to how good Granderson is. Plus, not being a pitcher Granderson doesn’t present as big of an injury risk. The skill and the make-up of Granderson along with his willingness to stay are what made it possible.
  • Granderson views the Tigers as a second family. Everything since he signed with the organization has been positive.
  • Curtis said his areas for improvement were hitting left handers more consistently, continuing to cut down and strike outs, and improving in the outfield. He’s sure he’ll have more things to focus on in 2009 and will learn by watching the veterans on the team.
  • Granderson’s plans for the evening are to pack to head down to spring training.
  • Dombrowski said the trades of Gorkys Hernandez and Cameron Maybin didn’t factor into the decision to lock up Curtis.
  • Granderson’ celebratory meal was a McDonald’s extra value meal plus a double cheeseburger off the dollar menu.

Analysis

There’s not much to analyze except to say “Yay!” Granderson on the open market is a $100 million player. Of course Granderson didn’t get “taken” on this deal because he isn’t eligible for the free agent market. The only leverage that Granderson has at this point is to say no to a long term contract. And being faced with $30 million or $500,000ish, it’s easy to see why he’d take the money and the security. Not to mention he is sticking with an organization that he likes, and figures to be a contender for a good chunk of his contract.

From the Tigers stand point, they take on the risk at this point. If Granderson’s career takes an unfortunate ending due to injury the Tigers are left holding the bag. In their favor though is the fact that even if Granderson is average they’ll still come out ahead. And when factoring in his defense (not to mention his work ethic and all his other qualities), he stands to be easily better than average. While being better than 2007 will be difficult (though not at all impossible), his future is still bright.

His projections for this year (Bill James, Marcel, Chone, PECOTA ZiPS) range from an OPS of 806 to 882. So he figures to be somewhere between good and really good. Plus he’s now locked up for his peak seasons with some very palatable cost certainty. The contract will pay Granderson $1 million this year, $3.5 million in 2009, $5.5 million in 2010, $8.25 million in 2011, and $10 million in 2012. Even the 2013 option is affordable at $13 million (with a $2 million buyout).

And then there is the off the field stuff. Normally “off-the-field-stuff” conjures up bad images. But Granderson is becoming the face of the franchise on a team with multiple All Stars and potential Hall of Famers. He’s entrenched himself in the community and been exceedingly accessible. He could be the next long term Tiger and as an unabashed fan I hope he is.

The contract is par for the course with the Tigers who are taking care of their own and locking up a team to make a run for the next several years. This deal pushes the team payroll over $133 million this year and $99 million in 2009 (with only 12 players signed).

Former Tigers

Sean Casey inspires Terrell Owens

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Sean Casey at the bat
Former Tigers first baseman Sean Casey reached an agreement with the Boston Red Sox and will be the primary back-up at first base. Curt Schilling is pretty excited about the move citing Casey’s nice guy/solid teammate reputation. But Schilling goes a step further and relates a story about Sean Casey and a Sharpie.

Each year at the All Star game the participants are given a jersey to autograph which is then auctioned off for charity. Casey somehow was down a couple jerseys and ended up having to autograph his game jersey.

He tells the story and it generates a huge laugh, and I them comment that since he autographed it, he should take a black sharpee into the field with him when he plays, and have each player that gets to first base autograph his shirt as well.

He actually TOOK the black sharpee in his pocket, onto the field with him. I am not sure who he told, but I know he told more than one player about it, and it was hilarious to watch guys at first base start cracking up as he told them the story.

So in the end he got the better of everyone because he had players autographing his jersey while they were standing on first base.

Casey only played in the 1999 and 2001 All Star games, meaning that his Sharpie-ness predated Terrell Owens’s Sharpie stunt by a full season.

2008 Season

The 2008 PECOTA’s are here

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Baseball Prospectus has released it’s 2008 player projection system known as PECOTA. What’s available at this point isn’t the full results of the system, just the weighted mean. PECOTA offers projections across a spectrum which are available on the player cards which will be forthcoming. What we have now is the middle.

PECOTA is premium content so I won’t post all the projections here (I recommend a BP premium subsciption, at least for the next month or buy the annual). Still, I will note some items.

Offense

It was a surprisingly gloomy picture on offense when I opened up the spreadsheet. I didn’t expect them to forecast another batting title for Magglio Ordonez or another quad 20 for Granderson, but I was a little surprised how down some of the projections were.

  • Curtis Granderson’s 2008 is forecast to be much more like his 2006 than his 2007, but they do like him for a .486 slugging percentage and they give him a very high upside score (20th highest for position players).
  • The system hates Jacque Jones and sees only a .699 OPS. Players expected to significantly outperform that are Marcus Thames, Ryan Raburn, Brandon Inge, and Timo Perez.
  • But the Tigers do have some decent balance in the forecasts with 6 of the 9 members of the starting lineup projected to be at least 20 runs above replacement (and Edgar Renteria is at 18). Detroit is the only American League team that can claim that many.

Pitchers

The system likes the Tigers starters though.

  • Justin Verlander has Josh Beckett and Kevin Millwood as his top two comparables and is projected to headline the Tigers staff (and several other staffs as well).
  • PECOTA still sees big things for Jeremy Bonderman and he has the 22nd highest upside score bolstered by a 3:1 K:BB ratio.
  • The system likes Dontrelle Willis to rebound a little and be a league average pitcher with a 4.55 ERA. Not too shabby since that’s the highest projected ERA in the rotation.
  • One caveat on the above bullet is that PECOTA only sees Kenny Rogers pitching 57 innings. The list of pitchers in their mid 40’s throwing more than that is probably a pretty small number and his injury last year was probably also a large factor.
  • As for who might be eating those innings? PECOTA would go with Yorman Bazardo narrowly edging out Virgil Vasquez with either giving typical 5th starter type numbers.

If you want all the numbers, you’ll have to buy the book or a subscription. And keep in mind these are projections, not gospel. Players will over perform and under perform the numbers. But there is some science behind this stuff, and it’s a nice objective check compared to one’s gut – especially when it comes to your favorite players.

Take I75 North has some comments on the prospect projections.

2008 Season, AL Central, Injuries, Minors

A day of catch-up

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There was quite a bit of news that trickled out today so let’s roll through it.

Prospecting

It was a day of top 100 lists as both Kevin Goldstein (BP) and Keith Law released their lists. It used to be that looking at these lists was really depressing for Tigers fans. And then for a couple years it was really fun. And now, well let’s hope the big club keeps us from thinking about the minors too much.

Rick Porcello rated #11 on the Baseball Prospectus list. Keith Law isn’t as big of a fan, putting him at 22nd. Porcello was the lone Tigers farm hand on each list.

But at least it wasn’t because of the Tigers ineptitude. Former Tigers Cameron Maybin and Gorkys Hernandez appeared on both lists and Goldstein included Jair Jurrjens at number 86.

The injury bug

Injuries have plagued former prospect Tony Giarratano. At one time he was the Tigers top shortstop hope. A knee surgery and labrum surgery likely had sapped his defense – which was his strongest trait. A set back this spring ended his run as a Tiger. Detroit released him today.

It won’t effect the team too much, except for freeing up another roster spot (that’s 3 open spots now). Tony G had been passed by Cale Iorg, Danny Worth, and Mike Hollimon. I feel bad for Giarratano, but the truth is he probably shouldn’t have retained a spot on the roster this long.

D-Town baseball notes that keeping Giarratano cost the team Randor Bierd. T75 North tries to figure out how the middle infield situation might shake out.

Some leg soreness has kept Miguel Cabrera at DH on his Venezuelan team. Although a 10 for 22 playoff series seems to indicate it wasn’t effecting him too adversely. He won’t play in the championship round at the request of the Tigers.

Jones says Twins will be okay

I haven’t commented on the Santana deal yet, mostly because I’m waiting for it to be finalized (which I expect). But that didn’t stop Todd Jones. In his Sporting News column he’s confident that the Twins will be okay. And now he just wants C. C. Sabathia out of the division.

Tiger History

The best defense

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Defensive metrics have evolved considerably as the charting of batted ball types and locations has become common place. PMR, UZR, and the like give us a much better understanding of defensive value, but what about past years. What about the years where there is play by play data, but not with the same level of documentation afforded over the last few years? Sean Smith has devised a way to cull through retrosheet data and present historical fielding data.

With this data in hand, we can take a look for some of the best Tigers defensively. The data doesn’t cover all-time, because retrosheet goes back as far as 1957 with play by play data. Smith has compiled the data for 1957 to 1986, so for at least that 30 year run we can see which Tigers were best at patrolling Tiger Stadium.

The players are ranked by runs prevented.

Best defensive seasons

First a look at who had the best individual seasons by position:

Position Player Season Runs
1B Enos Cabell 1983 18
2B Lou Whitaker 1982 16
SS Ray Oyler 1967 17
3B Aurelio Rodriguez 1972 13
LF Willie Horton 1969 14
CF Chet Lemon 1984 20
RF Al Kaline 1958 22

Lifetime achievement award

Now a look at the career run value saved defensively by position:

Pos Player Runs
1B Norm Cash 36
2B Lou Whitaker 77
SS Trammell 44
3B Tom Brookens 50
LF Charlie Maxwell 34
CF Chet Lemon 56
RF Al Kaline 103

Al Kaline and Lou Whitaker not only rate as the best Tigers defenders at their respective positions over that time span, they rank as the best in all of baseball by this measure.

Whitaker’s double play partner, Alan Trammell tops Tigers shortstops. Ray Oyler bested him on a runs per year basis (16 runs per year versus 7 for Tram), but his bat and .251 career slugging percentage couldn’t keep him in the lineup enough.

Norm Cash saved the most runs at first base, but it took him the equivalent of 9 full seasons to do it. Jason Thompson finished within 2 runs of Cash, but did it in less than 4 full seasons.

Those who saw Aurelio Rodriguez rave about his performance at the hot corner. But at least by this measure Tom Brookens gets the better of him, and by a considerable margin. Over their careers Brookens only had an edge of 3 runs, but he did it in less than half as many chances.

Willie Horton narrowly edged out Larry Herndon in left field. Horton had an additional half season worth of chances, but the two were quite comparable – but I think Willie had him beat with his arm (which this doesn’t measure).

Edit: goof on my part with the data. It was Charlie Maxwell who beat out Larry Herndon. Horton, despite having a very good season in left, actually rated pretty poorly for his career. Rocky Colavito was a solid fielder and deserves some mention here as well.

Chet Lemon is really the only defensive center fielder of note for the Tigers during those years. Unless you count Ron LeFlore and his -52 runs as being of note.

Other stuff

If you have specific research requests, either about Tigers history or the current team, please let me know. I’ll do my best to turn it into content. I have play by play data back to 1980 loaded and ready to go. I also have all of the pitch f/x (enhanced gameday) pitches stored in a database as well. I’m always looking for new ideas.

2007 Season, 2008 Season, Defense

Optimal Sub

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For the last few seasons, sabermetrician Tom Tango has conducted a defensive survey called The Fans Scouting Report. I’ve mentioned it in the past, and I’m sure that some of you participated. Essentially fans rate players on a variety of traits. I’m not going to rehash how the Tigers did because Lee has covered that already. I’m going to focus on Brandon Inge (because it’s always good for traffic and comment numbers) and how he can be expected to fare as he moves all over the diamond this summer.

When fans are instructed to fill out the survey, they are told to make their evaluations independent of position. For example don’t compare Curtis Granderson’s speed to that of other center fielders. Compare him to all baseball players. This is relevant because Tango has developed a system to weight the different traits based on their importance to a given position.

The traits that are evaluated are instincts, first step, speed, hands, release, throwing strength, and throwing accuracy. In the case of Inge he rated as follows:

Instincts: 83
First Step: 83
Speed: 68
Hands: 73
Release: 75
Arm Strength: 91
Throwing Accuracy: 62
Continue reading Optimal Sub →

2008 Season, Players

Inge to return

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Brandon Inge has come to terms, sort of, about losing his starting gig. He will report to camp with pitchers and catchers and is ready to do what ever it takes to get on the field.

In breaking his media silence Inge said he was disappointed. He also went on to explain his mindset a little bit

“I look at it this way. My absolute preference would be to stay in Detroit as the starting third baseman. My next preference would be to stay in Detroit, starting at any other position. Next on the list would be to start elsewhere at third base — and fourth would be to stay in Detroit as a bench guy.”

As for catching, Inge said, “I can still do it. I’ll do whatever helps this team win as many games as it can. That’s the hand I’ve been dealt and I have to make the best of it.

Inge lovers and Inge haters are likely to break down his statements (and there’s more than just the quote, click through for the rest) in the same polarizing way they break down much of what Inge does. I’ll do what I usually do and hang out right in the middle.

The Good

The guy just wants to play everyday. I can’t fault a guy for that attitude and it’s pretty much exactly what I’d hope for from a player. He also sounds very hungry, which could bode well if he can translate any of that into performance. He’s also advocating doing what he can to help the team win. He’s also got an eye towards being the starter in 2009 which could help the Tigers who don’t have a ready replacement.

The Bad

He still doesn’t seem to own any of his demotion and views it as something that happened to him. I have no problem with that attitude if he had replicated 2006 last year and they still went and got Cabrera. But Inge played his way out the starting role. Much like the Ted Williams comment, and the Babe Ruth comment, and the other statements made during his struggles this last year, he hasn’t recognized that his performance is part of the problem.

As for what it means for the team, this settles any ambiguity about what will happen if Vance Wilson isn’t ready. The Tigers also have a player they can stick all over the field and get some solid defense. It also gives Brandon a chance to re-establish some value for either a future starting gig or a possible mid season trade. This is pretty much what had to happen for both sides, and I’m glad it’s working out.

Fan Experience

Granderson’s Hoops Event

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I attended Curtis Granderson’s charity hoops game last night, and it would have to be considered a success. According to Jon Paul Morosi there were over 1700 fans in attendance at Avondale High School. The game featured the Detroit All Stars coached by Granderson against the Flint All Stars skippered by Nate Robertson.

The Detroit team, featuring Desmond Howard, Braylon Edwards, and Willie Burton ended up on top in a game that was made closer than it should have been by some horrible officiating from guest referee Dontrelle Willis. Edwards, who took home MVP honors actually seemed to be pretty irritated as Dontrelle made up calls to keep the game close down the stretch. Edwards came to play and he actually did play defense and had a few impressive dunks. He also hurdled the ball rack to dunk during half time.

Willis was very entertaining and an absolute clown who seemed to genuinely be having a great time. When questioned about his calls early on he retorted along the lines of “I came up all the way from Florida for this and I’ll throw everyone in this gym out if I have to.” He did throw out both Granderson and Robertson. Robertson offered to let Willis wear his glasses if it would help.

The half time show was a three point shoot out between Granderson and Robertson. Curtis won going away as Robertson couldn’t recover from a tough 1 for 10 in the first round.

Now with a crowd that big there were some frustrations. Doors opened at 5pm and I arrived with my kids at that time and waited for 25 minutes in the will call line while those who hadn’t pre-purchased tickets were able to walk right up and get them. Either mailing out tickets ahead of time, or having multiple lines for will call differentiated by last name would probably help next year.

Also, some were frustrated with the autograph process. Autograph tickets were sold for a signing session after the game. Even though the tickets were capped at 500, that still makes for a long line and a long wait considering it took the players a little while to get showered and start signing. There’s really nothing that can be done on that front. I did hear complaints from people around me who were upset that only Dontrelle and Curtis were signing. Many had brought UM football helmets and footballs hoping for Edwards and Howard (and probably Tyrone Wheatley who was scheduled to appear but didn’t). My take is that the autograph ticket cost $10 and it was being done for charity. I’m not sure what people really expected.

Even with the hiccups it was a great night for a great cause. It’s also great to see a young athlete be able to rally as much support as Granderson was able to attract.

Links

links for 2008-01-27

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Fan Experience, Tiger History

Friday Warm-Up

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With the thermometer rocketing all the way up to 7 degrees this morning, and spring training a few weeks away here are some items to try and keep you warm on a Friday. No heavy analysis here, just some diversions.

The Tunes

I was surfing around the WDFN website and came across some great audio. They have a compilation of the Tigers walk-up music. I parsed out a couple of my favorites.

Omar Infante: I know he’s gone now, but I’ll miss his music the most.
[audio:infante.mp3|autostart=no]

Placido Polanco:
[audio:polanco.mp3|autostart=no]

I don’t think I picked those two because of particular fondness for salsa music. It’s just that those two are specific to nights at the ballpark. Comerica Park is the only place I hear those songs and so they help to take me to my happy place.

The Words

I’ve been reading Inside Pitch: Roger Craig’s ’84 Tiger Journal and it’s been great. I was 10 during that season, so while I remember all the winning and the players, I don’t remember the details.

Craig offers a number of insights and anecdotes that add a lot of flavor to the season. I didn’t know that Jack Morris went on a media boycott for a big chunk of the season. I knew Willie Hernandez won the MVP, but didn’t realize just how remarkable his season was (coincidentally Mop Up Duty just wrote an article highlighting that season). And I had no idea that a police officer stopped Craig and Sparky Anderson while they were walking in Baltimore – because they were shirtless.

It’s out of publication, but used copies can be picked up for as little as a penny at Amazon.

The sights

Roger DeWitt (aka Huey Taxi) continues to hang out at Tiger Town in Lakeland and has been snapping photos as the players start to migrate down there. Also, fantasy camps are now running so he has some shots of old time Tigers as well. Catch it on Flickr.

Players

Obligatory post about Canseco

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Canseco Is Said to Have Sought Favor to Omit Name – New York Times

Washed up super star needs some money so he writes a tell-all book about all the guys he got into steroids. Washed up superstar creates fervor around the topic but most people blow him off. Subsequent information, some real some circumstantial, about steroid users surfaces and maybe washed up superstar was on to something all along.

Washed up superstar writes another book as another money grab. He also tries to make the first book into a movie but washed up superstar can’t finance it, and can’t find other people to invest in the film that is largely focused on washed up superstar and his proclivity for injecting things into the gluteal regions of himself and other superstars (hard to belive, that sounds like great cinema).

Washed up superstar makes list of guys he played with. Washed up superstar makes a second list after looking at who had the best seasons in 2007 and will garner the most attention. Washed up superstar sees that Magglio Ordonez shows up on both lists.

Washed up superstar calls Ordonez and says pay-up or your name gets dragged through the mud. Ordonez takes the reasonable step of notifying his employer (Dave Dombrowski) and his agent (Scott Boras) who take the reasonable step of contacting federal law enforcement authorities.

That’s the story. Make of it what you will. I’m not going to sit here and say whether or not Ordonez was ever a steroid user. Given what we know and don’t know about MLB over the last decade and a half I think it’s foolish for anybody to make a claim either way. What I do know is that when Canseco was busy naming names in 2005, Ordonez’s name was no where to be found. Then again Ordonez was coming off a season that was lost in large part to a knee injury. His name is much sexier after winning the batting title. Nevermind the fact that it’s been 6 years since the two were teammates, and I’m not entirely sure what 2001 has to do with 2007.
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