PREGAME: It’s Joe Saunders and Edwin Jackson today. The Tigers try for a sweep, which is always fun to write. A guaranteed .500 road trip is certainly acceptable, but a 4-2 mark would be immensely satisfying.
The Tigers have faced Saunders twice this year and have plated 9 runs in 11 innings. He’s making his first start since coming off the DL.
Jackson has faced the Angels twice this year. The Angels worked him over pretty good running his pitch count up to 104 in just 5 innings. In Detroit he pitched a complete game and struck out the side in the 9th.
Detroit vs. LA Angels – August 26, 2009 | MLB.com: Gameday
POSTGAME: A loss is a lot easier to take after a couple of good wins. The Tigers just came up short in so many facets of the game today. Granderson came up just short of robbing a homer (I’m not dogging him for this, just saying it was close). Rallies came up just short. Gerald Laird’s throws on the numerous stolen base attempts just missed getting runners. And Edwin Jackson just missed the strike zone too often today. It happens.
- Jackson had 4 walks today and that is certainly a concern. It’s been a pattern in the 2nd half of the season and something that he has had to pitch around.
- The Angels stole 5 bases which is pretty much unheard of with Laird behind the dish
- Adam Everett last homered in the last road series the Tigers won. I don’t mean to imply anything by this expect to point out an interesting coincidence.
- Everett hitting in the 9th is a fairly curious move, but with the lefty starter Leyland had deployed all his right handed hitting weapons. Even with a platoon disadvantage an option like Guillen was probably safer bet.
- Too bad Inge moved out of the way of the ball that was about to hit him or the bases could have been loaded with 1 out for Everett.
- Ryan Perry turned in another impressive performance and showed no ill effects from his Sunday shellacking.
The Tigers have won 8 of their last 12 games. We had a decent chance at winning all but one of the games. Having Washburn sure has made a pretty big difference. We’ve won the last 4 games he’s started. That rotation spot was huge weakness for us, but now it’s one of our many strengths.
We have won the last four games that he has started, true, but he hasn’t pitched that well. He has been average at best.
Washburn’s numbers for those four starts:
26 ip, 4.85 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 14 Ks
These are not the numbers we expected from him when we made the trade. He needs to step his game up to prove the trade was a good move. So far it hasn’t panned out, even though French isn’t exactly tearing it up. However, his ERA is slightly lower than Washburn’s since the trade (4.43).
LOL. He’s pitched well enough though. Nitpick if you want, but all I care about is the final result where he’s helping us win all these huge games. He’s kept runners off the bases for the most part, but the homeruns have killed him. He usually doesn’t give that many, but that’s the chance he takes by pitching to contact. Most importantly, he’s giving us the 6+ innings that we need. That’s why we can get away with having a 6 man pen.
To paraphrase John McEnroe, ‘Mr. X you can’t be serious.’
It’s not nitpicking to say a). 4.85 is not good and b). the guy we traded for him has a lower ERA.
I agree with Mr. X, stats dont’ always tell the story. Washburn has pitched 6 innings most of the time and kept us in the game. 3 runs in 6 innings against the Angles is great, I would take that everytime. His ERA was 4.5 but Verlander and Jackson didn’t do this. Can he pitch better? Sure and I would guess he will but he battles and protects the pen unless you would enjoy seeing more of Miner and the 12th guy, who surely would have an ERA higher than 4.8. Also more innnings from the starter limits the decisions Leyland has which is always a good thing.
He is 10x better than French, Seattle is a tougher ballpark and has a better D than we do so sure his ERA looks pretty (look at Washburns when he was there) but how many times has French pitched 6 innings? He is going around the league for the first time and I suspect the second time his ERA will be much higher, look how Galarraga did last year. Washburn is a vet and knows how to battle , make adjustments and pitch long into games to give the team a chance.
I think if you ask 100 people in baseball who they would rather want to start in the playoffs or a key game French would get 0 votes.
Washburn hasn’t been very good. He was stellar against the Royals and did good enough against the Angels last night. But the overall record in games he started has more to do with the rest of the team picking him up than Washburn solidifying a spot in the rotation.
That said I still think he’ll be a better option the remainder of this season than Luke French so I don’t hate the trade.
Here’s the Huff-less lineup:
Granderson, CF
Polanco, 2B
Ordonez, RF
Cabrera, 1B
Thames, DH
Raburn, LF
Inge, 3B
Laird, C
Everett, SS
Ordonez batting third, working the count, and belting line drives is essential for this offense in my opinion and is not a completely outrageous use of 18mil.
I have no sense however whether the exception is the poor (almost 4 month long) start to the year or the recent August prowess.
Any fresh opinions on the subject or is the jury completely out yet on Maggs and returning to form?
Magglio looks comfortable at the plate. Hopefully he can keep up his pace as of late for the rest of the year.
Looking at career stats (and I’m very, very surprised to say this), Nate has put up only slightly worse numbers than Washburn, with much worse luck. Wash has 74.0% LOB vs. Nate’s 69.6%. Wash has a .279 BABIP vs. Nate’s .310 (and that’s with Nate having a markedly lower Line Drive rate). Nate has a much, much, higher rate of homers per fly ball, which is more or less a luck-based thing. For a couple of similar, low-90s, lefty, fly ball pitchers, with about 6 K and 3 BB per 9, these comparisons should hold water. It really amazes me to think that, with better luck (and defense), Nate would clearly be in the middle of a much better career than Washburn.
What does that mean going forward? If Nate and Washburn are both healthy and perform to their career norms, Nate should be a solid bit better. Neither is a world beater, but there is a lot of ceiling to Nate if he’s healthy.
This is why I like numbers. I never would have guessed that there was a reason in the world to think that not only is Nate better than Washburn, but by a solid margin.
Edit: Maybe, possibly, I could have put this in the “Robertson to Start” thread. Apologies.
I don’t like to make an assumption based on a stat like BABIP. I usually make assumptions based on talent and then reinforce that assumption with stats, not the other way around. Pitchers make there own luck by throwing pitches that are more difficult to hit. If someone is making bad pitches, then they are not going to get very lucky.
“Pitchers make there own luck by throwing pitches that are more difficult to hit.”
How does this square with your praise of Washburn and ‘that’s the risk you take when you pitch to contact?’ It seems like you have contradicted yourself in the time frame of eleven minutes.
Maybe you don’t understand how I used the word “hit”. I don’t mean just making making contact with the ball. I mean making good contact with the ball. There’s a huge difference between the ball hitting the barrel of the bat vs all other parts of the bat. I guess some of you have never used wood bats before so just don’t know much about making contact.
Ok, but how do you measure “talent”?
Experience. Most experts know talent just by watching, studying, and/or playing the game. Hard to believe I would have to explain that since you seem so critical about JL game strategy.
“I usually make assumptions based on talent and then reinforce that assumption with stats, not the other way around.”
That’s the problem. You make decisions based on “look” and “feel”, then find stats that support what you already think and dismiss ones that don’t (e.g., BABIP).
So Washburn all of a sudden has more significantly “talent” than he ever has in his career? There’s no way anyone can honestly believe that. Washburn’s better success this season is primarily due to luck, and a little bit to pitching better.
Washburn’s BABIP is .247, the lowest in baseball. Do you really believe he’s better at “throwing pitches that are more difficult to hit” than everyone else, including Lincecum, Halladay and Greinke? No, I think he’s been tremendously lucky this year. His career BABIP is .279. A difference like that is not sustainable.
It’s probably not just luck, but also the quality of his defense in Seattle.
Right.
BABIP is also flawed when comparing power pitchers to finesse pitchers also. Strikeouts pitchers like Lincecum, ect usually have a distinct advantage. It’s also a bad assumption to think that every ball in play has an equal chance of being a base hit.
I’ve got better things to do than argue about this. Have a good time watching the game.
I agree with that statement. However, that doesn’t explain how Washburn’s .247 vs. a career .279, as well as Washburn’s leading all of baseball, is anything but an anomaly that will not be repeated in the future.
BABIP is an anomaly all by itself. Miguel Cabrera has a lifetime .349 BABIP. Does that mean he’s lucky? Maybe to you it does, but to me it reinforces that he hits the ball to all fields and hits mean line drives. Is it luck that he hits ropes off the walls in every ballpark?
“Miguel Cabrera has a lifetime .349 BABIP. Does that mean he’s lucky?”
No, because a career BABIP of .349 for a hitter is not unheard of – many of his current peers have comparable numbers. If it was 30 points higher at .380 this season though, I’d say he was having a lucky year.
On the other hand, Washburn’s BABIP is over 30 points less than his career avg. Furthermore, I can’t find any pitcher of this generation who has a career BABIP even close to Washburn’s 2009. The closest I can find is Zito at .270-something. While Washburn has a career avg much better than most pitchers, it’s the difference from his career avg that is the most telling. You have to expect it to regress to his mean at some point.
Yes, he was pitching better than normal. Sure he’ll regress to his normal levels, but it has little to do with luck, and more about being hot or cold. He was pitching awesome before he got traded.
I agree to some extent. Yes, he was probably throwing the ball better than he had in years. But I disagree – it has a lot to do with luck. He was also the beneficiary of some external factors — a) Seattle has the best OF defense in baseball, and as a flyball pitcher, was helped immensely by Gutierrez, Chavez and Ichiro, b) Safeco field, which has a big OF and therefore he benefited from his OFs’ great range, especially as a FB pitcher (though this could very well carry over to Comerica, which is why I like him much better on the Tigers than the Yankees), and c) luck – hit balls just weren’t going for hits. So yes, he probably pitched better and deserved some of the praise he’s received this year, but he was also helped a lot by external factors — in other words, luck.
In the end, all that matters obviously is what he’ll do going forward. Based on 10 years of history, I think he’s much, much, much more likely to pitch like he has over his career, which is an average ML pitcher, than he did in the 1st half of this year. There’s really no reason to think otherwise.
He started throwing a splitter this year. That’s one reason for his improvement. Gutierrez and Chavez have helped a lot too, they are dynamos for sure.
To me, luck is whether or not a bloop fly ball drops in for a hit or if a ground ball takes a bad hop or finds a hole in the infield. That doesn’t happen often though. To me BABIP is what it is- it’s batting average of balls in play. How that is converted to luck, I do not know. Luck is such a small part of the game that I’m surprised someone can even think that pitching can be mostly luck.
Sometimes pitchers get hot and sustain those high levels for quite some time. My 1st thoughts about those pitchers are 2001 John Burkett and 2003 Estaban Loiaza. To me, there is nothing more exciting than watching a veteran pitcher reinvent himself and find success after having some declining years. Burkett was one of my favorites. He had some crazy movement on his pitches in 2001 and he was part of the Braves rotation where he fed off off Maddux and Glavine.
Maybe we’re not being consistent with the word “luck.” When I say Washburn has been “lucky,” that includes the outstanding Mariners OF defense and Safeco field. A combination of those factors and just plain old “luck” – i.e., balls just not finding holes, is probably responsible for this year’s aberration.
“Sometimes pitchers get hot and sustain those high levels for quite some time.”
There’s little in Washburn’s fundamental statistics to indicate he’s thrown the ball better than his career averages. He’s not throwing more strikes. He’s not missing more bats. He was walked guys a little bit less. The differences are BABIP and HR/FB rate, stats which are helped greatly by defense and park. If you can explain to me specifically how he has thrown the ball better, I’d listen, but otherwise the only difference I see is in results-based stats like ERA, WHIP, etc that rely heavily on external factors.
If don’t watch the guy pitch and see his improvements, then just look at Washburn’s pitch fx at fangraphs instead-
http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=40&position=P
I looked at it. Doesn’t tell me much on its face.
Really, you really don’t see the differences in pitch selection and movement? Oh well.
You’re right, he’s getting more horizontal movement on his pitches than the last 2 years. Pitch selection itself doesn’t mean anything. I wonder how these numbers compare to years before 2007. Is this data available?
Can Marcus Thames please get on base.
Guess you should have been more specific with your request.
😉
ie: “Can Marcus please get on base and then can Rayburn NOT hit into a double play?”
Note: He’s “Rayburn” when he screws up, “Raburn” when he does well.
Yeah Marcus got on, but Ryan fixed that
Check. Can the Tigers please score some runs.
Come on Ejax. Throw strikes.
This is not the Jackson we were looking for.
We’ve only had 1 hit. The Tigers need to score some runs.
Somehow we are stilling in this, Lets go Guys. The blogers here want a sweep and your not playing like it, Do we need Lackey out again???
we are totally coming back in this game.
EDIT: well that’s a quick way to run yourself out of an inning.
Stay hot Cabrera. Now is a good time…
Man I HATE when we do that…
Seriously Smokey is “smoking” the real stuff.
Man on 1 st and 2nd No outs and boom were out of the inning
I pronounce the pennant race over. The Detroit Tigers are your 2009 Central Division Champs. Print the t-shirts.
If your 7 through 9 hitters can combine to hit roughly .170 (.170!) since the all-star break and you actually increase your division lead, then the guys chasing you are no-hopers. I do not see the Twins or the White Sox getting to the 85-87 wins needed to win the division. The one thing the Tigers have proven is the ability to play slightly above .500 ball and that’s gonna be more than enough in this division.
C’mon Bran, tattoo the ball!
By my calculations, Brandon Inge will become the Detroit Tigers all-time strikeout leader on August 19, 2010. Mark your calendars. The only thing that can stop him is getting benched or traded and we know that’s not going to happen.
Where’s Rob Deer fall in that list? If he could have played longer maybe Brandon wouldn’t be able to catch him.
Here’s the Top Ten. Rob Deer didn’t stay long enough.
1 Lou Whitaker 1099
2 Norm Cash 1081
3 Al Kaline 1020
4 Willie Horton 945
5 BRANDON INGE 939
6Dick McAuliffe 932
7 Travis Fryman 931
8 Kirk Gibson 930
9 Cecil Fielder 926
10 Alan Trammell 874
I had forgotten that Sweet Lou was tops on the list. I remember being surprised at seeing him lead in strikeouts.
Wow, for as long as Trammell played, he has only that many strikeouts? That’s incredible.
The numbers are interesting. Whitaker had 8570 ab’s. Trammell at 8288.
Inge is going to set the record with, uh, 4200 ab’s!
The only person close is Fielder who had roughly 4200 ab’s but has outhomered Inge 244 to 120.
That is 3 K’s already today…
how about granderson??? he strikes out an awful lot too!
Granderson is ‘only’ at 587. But give him until 2013 and he’ll be locked in a death match with Inge.
my point exactly. grandy is an asset to the team but it is way past time for him to move way down the batting order!
The best part about that home run had to be Saunder’s reaction. He looked completely befuddled.
I think that swing raised Everett’s slugging pct out of negative integers.
lol
Adam “Ernie Banks” Everett!
Who needs Cabrera when you’ve got Longball Everett in the lineup! The Bottom Of the Order Boys make it a ballgame again!
GO BOOBS!!!!!
Everett homers? That was unexpected. But it helps.
Before that homer, Everett’s post all-star slugging % was .205. oo fa.
Wow. That is beyond terrible.
The same pitch they threw Cabrera and he stood there. Everett was watching.
Huge. Genius play Laird. Let’s go boys.
And that is what Laird brings…I’m not as worried about the avg. As for the Binge…
Cannot help but feel a bit lucky at the outcome of the 5th…let’s hope the momentum has turned a bit.
ADAM EVERETT?!?!?! Well bout time someone else steps up!
“and he’s toast…burnt toast!”
I’m kinda liking listening to Rex Hudler…
We just got a home run from “Babe” Everett and a terrific heads up play from Laird to squeak out of another jam. I think the baseball gods are with (for once) and I have a good feeling about the rest of this one.
Even Zach Miner couldn’t sabotage this momentum…
EDIT: Ryan Raburn, on the other hand…
You’re saying the guy who pitched 1 2/3 innings of scoreless relief last night couldn’t sabotage momentum? Miner creates his own momentum, like a supernatural force he has unfathomable powers…
Zach Miner is the Chuck Norris of relievers?
Lets just say that I heard from a reliable source that Zach walked the bases loaded on purpose, he just wanted everyone to think he was trying to throw strikes. He then intentionally threw the wild pitch just to toy with the Angels and show off his world class speed on his sprint to home. He planned the entire inning just to create suspense.
Did he lose 3 of the last 5 games he pitched in on purpose also?
It was pure luck he didn’t make it 4 losses in 6 games, the other 2 games he came in when we were behind so it was impossible to lose so he has managed not to lose the game 1 time out of 4 when he comes in when we are ahead or tied and that one was pure luck.
The guy is a mop up man who never should be in a game we are ahead or tied, I think everybody who watches baseball knows this except for Leyland of course. I would rather have Grilli with a 100 gallon bucket of gasoline coming in those situations.
David R.,
I was sort of with you until your silly comparison to Grilli… Miner has done a lot of positive things for this team over the years. He’s not pitched as well lately. Miner can be an above-average MLB reliever when he’s on his game, and he’s a below-average MLB reliever when he’s off it.
Looks like Miguel got fed up with blasting singles off the wall.
According to the guidelines Matt artfully laid out: nice clutch AB Rayburn!
I like this quick learning Jackson. He deftly overcame the stolen on deluge with a trick of his own. Don’t let anyone on. Sly and effective…
I don’t know if the Angels have a lefty reliever in the pen or not, but I’d like to thank Big Mike for putting in a righty to face Grandy.
Next time they’ll just pitch around Everett to get to Granderson.
Mr. X, my experience tells me that Brandon Inge’s career numbers suggest he would make a helluva spot starter and a late-inning defensive replacement. What would your experience tell you?
Do the Angels steal bases like this against other teams?
That’s the 5th one already today.
I read somewhere that Fuentes is having a ‘soft’ year for his great save totals Lets see if that happens today.
Inge, golden boy or golden sombrero??
that was strike three.
Can’t give him 2 inches on each corner. Those ones to Thames were questionable.
Everett bats for himself! Wow.
There’s got to be someone on the bench to use here. I know Everett hit a HR and all, but expecting him to come through here is silly.
Let me repeat that. Wow. I don’t care about the match-ups or the fact that AdamEve just hit a homerun. Worst batter in AL can’t bat in that situation!
Whom would you have used?
He is the worst batter in MLB, not just the AL. I would include the minors but I dont’ follow them enough.
Leyland probably had a hunch, you know he isn’t afraid to lose a game or go against the odds or common sense. I would suspect Everett in key situations against closers or setup men is batting .040 for his career so there was a chance there.
I would have put a pinch hitter in there, but not Leland.
Did Leland really believe Adam would hit gold twice?
Agreed. I don’t know how anyone could have any faith in Everett coming up with a clutch hit in that situation.
Why Leyland didn’t pinch run Santiago for Laird and pinch hit Avila for Everett, I don’t know. Maybe he thought Everett’s power surge was real. Don’t know if it would have made a difference, tho, really
So we have Everett – a guy who used his one good swing for the week up on Wednesday – batting and a catcher – a catcher who just was hit in the knee by a pitch and was on the ground for a minute, a catcher who represented the tying run – on first base? Good job, Leland.
Everett had two hits on the day already. We didn’t need a homerun, just a base hit. And I don’t have a problem with Leyland sticking with the “hot” bat.
That said, I sure wish Everett didn’t swing at the first pitch when the pitcher was obviously having control issues and had already beaned a couple other guys. Guess Everett’s afraid of getting hit.
My guess is he didn’t want a lefty-lefty matchup (left handers hit .204 against Fuentes), and the only RH batter on the bench was Santiago.
Guillen was available, too.
Is he hitting RH yet? I thought he was still limited to batting lefty.
Ah… didn’t know that. You may be right.
Guillen took some BP right handed both mon and tues so he must be putting work into getting back there..In fact he only hit right monday, each time in the cage, and only hit left both days in the games
And how fast was Laird gonna run if someone did get a hit.
Meanwhile the White Sox have obligingly stepped back to the 4 1/2 mark, and the Twins look like they intend a similarly courteous gesture…
Sad that we are in first place with the lowest percentage of the league and stay there thanks to the two teams below us! I just hope we can stay on top!!!
Ya know what they call the guy who graduates last in his Medical School class?
Doctor
Just got back from Anaheim and offer these observations:
1. the Heat was brutal today even sitting in the stands,,,had to be 100+ Everyone jammed themselves into the shade sections and moved with the sun
2. Inge did not look good physically and it showed batting
3. Funny the Angels had 5 stolen bases in 5 change ups or breaking balls. in the 80-s…how did they know ..someone or something tipped them off.
4. The Angel fans were very gracious about the Tigers winning the series …especially last night when the Tiger fans and there were quite a few of us were whooping it up
5. Saunders basically put the usual number in the Tigers and after watching we wondered how he did it????
6. Leyland did very little lefty, righty switching batting when pitchers changed it was worse yesterday where he defied logic more than a couple times then again today. ,,,,I know I know don’t try and figure it out…but he could have gone after the game a lot harder than he did today ….Especially when Saunders left the game..
7. All in all GREAT THREE days at he Sombrero!!!!!!!!!!!
Huff played both Mon and Tues and Thanks Jim for not playing him Wed and the best thing I can say about him is…………………………………………………..!
Jackson’s day/night splits are interesting. He walks 2.14/9 at night, 4.45/9 in day games. That’s 30 day walks in 60.1 innings, and 26 night walks in 109.2 innings. ERA is a point higher during the day. 10HR allowed at both day and night even though almost two thirds of his innings are at night. Is nine day games a big enough sample? Or has he just had the misfortune of facing better teams then? Is it worth adjusting the rotation to have him avoid day games? Or can we at least review his day game preparation?
“Even with a platoon disadvantage an option like Guillen was probably safer bet.”
I wouldn’t trust a guy in a situation he’s almost never encountered in his life (batting from the left side vs. a lefty). Furthermore, Everett is a better career hitter vs. LHP than Guillen.