2009 Season, Game Post

Game 2009.158: Twins at Tigers

199 Comments

PREGAME: Let’s do this again. After a very long day of baseball, it’s just a regular night at the ballpark. Except that it is the immovable force named Carl Pavano that the Tigers will be going up against.

Pavano’s mastery of all things Tigers and few things not-Tigers is one of those epic mysteries. It’s the stuff of a Time-Life book series (Coincidence? Read the book!). The last time out the Tigers got to Pavano for a ga-jillion baserunners but not so many runs.

In a similar vein, we’ll see of Eddie Bonine’s powers of seduction (I’m for sure going to be the number 1 Google hit for “eddie bonine power of seduction) extend beyond the Chicago White Sox. Bonine faced the Twins once last year and it resulted in a 7-0 loss. Here’s hoping for a better outcome.

Minnesota vs. Detroit – September 30, 2009 | MLB.com: Gameday

POSTGAME
[audio:http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/onemoretime1.mp3]

I’m in Alexandria, Virginia but it was easy to find Tigers fans. And even fans without a rooting interest were pulling for the Tigers tonight. Pirates fans, and Red Sox fans, and pretty much everyone I ran into was on the Tigers bandwagon tonight. It was awesome. And there was beer.

But meanwhile, those in Detroit took care of business. The boys gave us all reason to be proud. Eddie Bonine was shaky to start, but after allowing 2 runs in the first that would be it for the Twins.

Now we’ve seen before what happens when Carl Pavano pitches and it is mostly frustration and angst for Tigers fans. But tonight the Tigers got him. They got him good. They got him real good.

Brandon Inge and Magglio Ordonez. Two Tigers who have had their highs and lows this season both delivered bases loaded doubles. Both came up huge. Both should be celebrated.

  • I don’t get using Miner in 3 innings and I don’t get using Lyon with a 5 run lead and I don’t get using Rodney with a 5 run lead. But only Miner is likely unavailable tomorrow. And really, tonight is much more important than tomorrow…until tomorrow.
  • Twice the Tigers splashed a Brett Favre graphic over the Tigers game. Yeah, I don’t get it either.
  • Little has been easy for the Tigers this year, but this was as close to an easy win as the Tigers have had in a while.
  • Ramon Santiago has driven in runs in his last 2 starts. Kudos Ramon.
  • Yeah, I’m pretty giddy right now.
  • Oh yeah, 34K in attendance tonight. Way to go Detroit.

199 thoughts on “Game 2009.158: Twins at Tigers”

  1. Yep, you’re the top Google result for “eddie bonine power of seduction”. Congratulations on constructing a statistically improbably phrase.

    1. I’ll predict the first play of tonight’s game:

      Pavano strikes out Granderson

      (OK, just playing the odds here..Pavano has struck him out 7 times in 18 PA…that’s a strikeout every 2.6 PA…)

      If Granderson gets on base to start the game I predict we will win, since it means the anti-hex hex of his .666 OPS vs Pavano is working…

  3. re: Carl Pavano – he’s got a 22:1 K/BB ratio and we have a 550 OPS against him. The madness has to stop, I think the Tigers get to him for 3-4 runs and manage to squeak out another close win.

    1. I hope you’re right. I’ve got tickets to the game tomorrow (taking my son to his first Tigers game) and it would be awesome to see them have a chance to clinch the division.

        1. He’s 5 so he should remember it 🙂 If they win I’m sure he’ll be even more likely to remember. I figured with the way sports go (especially the Tigers) you never know when the next pennant race will be & that’s what I told his teacher when I let her know he wouldn’t be at school tomorrow 🙂

    2. The 3 guys he’s been really tough on have been Polanco, Cabrera, and especially Guillen–and we’ve been batting them 2-3-4 vs him. That’s a problem. I’m hoping Carlos gets the night off and we have Ordonez hitting 3rd, that should help…

  4. Last time we faced Pavano I played the “this cannot keep happening, tonight we beat up Pavano” card. Needless to say, it didn’t work.

    So today I’m going for the opposite strategy. Pavano is a brilliant pitcher worthy of the Cy Young award and tonight he will once again prove his dominance and shut down our formidable line-up.

  5. And here with today’s edition of the Pavano Report:

    Tiger batters’ OPS vs Carl Pavano (Plate appearances in parentheses):

    1.000 Raburn (6)
    .819 Ordonez (11)
    .884 Inge (15)
    .715 Huff (21)
    .667 Everett (25)
    .666 Thames (3)
    .666 Granderson (18)
    .626 Polanco (43)
    .600 Thomas (10)
    .580 Cabrera (16)
    .400 Laird (15)
    .000 Guillen (13)
    .000 Santiago (4)

    It’s no wonder Pavano has been tough on the Tigers; he’s been tough on Cabrera, and that’s always a good start. And as I have shown before Polanco and Guillen’s performances are key for Detroit to win, and Pavano has been tough on Polanco and completely blanked Guillen.

    Maybe Granderson and his 666 will be some sort of anti-hex hex…maybe throw in Thames to double the anti-hex…

    With these stats in mind I’m sure Leyland will have Clete batting 3rd and Guillen 5th, with Raburn and Ordonez on the bench…maybe even finally resting Inge and putting Santiago at 3rd (at least Laird’s due to have a day off). And the Tigers will be shut out and Leyland will be mystified…either that or they’ll score 10 and knock him out in the 3rd inning and completely re-write the Pavano stats…I’d take that…

    1. Thornetta Davis is singing tonight. I’m not familiar with her work or her record.

      And yes, Amber Grand is singing during this homestand. I just don’t know if I should tell you what day yet…

  7. Put Huff and Avila in the line-up. Avila hasn’t faced him yet, so no jinx there. Huff has only faced him once as a Tiger. That’s enough lefties with Grandy, so leave Guillen and Clete out of the lineup. Use Guillen to PH against a righty reliever. Play Raburn in left. Last game against Pavano, Cabrera had three hits and an RBI (one of only two runs), Polly had FOUR hits and scored both runs, and Huff had an RBI.
    Grandy CF
    Polanco 2b
    Maggs RF
    Cabrera 1b
    Huff DH
    Raburn LF
    Inge 3b
    Avila c
    Everett ss

  8. My first post here. Have been following the great articles / insights by all for 6 months. My take on the next two night’s games…. The Twins are scary. One would think Pavano will completely dominate the Tigers once again. That may well happen. Looks like the oddmakers are saying Twins should win next two games. But I have a feeling the Tigers are going to play Pavano tough tonight. They will have gone through a lot of video and will be ready for him. Bonine will give up some runs but Leyland goes to the bullpen early and Miner, Perry, and the human acronym, Fu Te Ni, hold. Tigers win 7-5. Robertson steps up big and the Tigers clinch tomorrow night. The Twins are a great team but I think the Tigers are about to step it up. Gut feel. I hope I’m right otherwise I will be ridiculed for having jinxed our team with my first post.

    1. Good first post (although you did give the Twins 5 runs). Here’s to the 2nd part of your augury manifesting tomorrow afternoon….

    1. Why? Anyone cares about Lynn Henning?
      Magglio has to be cut
      Granderson must be traded
      I dream with the day Cabrera is traded

      And my favorite, before 07-31
      Detroit needs a LF, a Cf , a Rf a SS , a 3rd base 3 starting pitchers and a whole bullpen
      Detroit will lose to Chicago.
      0-5

  10. No Huff:

    Line-ups as follows:

    Here are the starting lineups:

    Minnesota Twins
    1. Denard Span, CF
    2. Orlando Cabrera, SS
    3. Joe Mauer, C
    4. Jason Kubel, RF
    5. Michael Cuddyer, 1B
    6. Delmon Young, LF
    7. Jose Morales, DH
    8. Matt Tolbert, 3B
    9. Nick Punto, 2B

    Detroit Tigers
    1. Curtis Granderson, CF
    2. Placido Polanco, 2B
    3. Clete Thomas, RF
    4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
    5. Magglio Ordonez, DH
    6. Carlos Guillen, LF
    7. Brandon Inge, 3B
    8. Alex Avila, C
    9. Ramon Santiago, SS

    1. Most career HR/RBI vs Pavano: Huff (on the bench)
      Best career OPS vs Pavano: Raburn (on the bench)
      Tigers never to reach base vs Pavano (tie): Guillen (0/13) batting 6th, Santiago (0/4) batting 9th.

      1. Clete Thomas continually batting No. 3 in the lineup is so baffling at this point you almost have to laugh. Has anyone gotten more milelage out of an early August couple of walk-off hits?

        Nothing against Thomas if he was batting in the ‘BOOB’ range, but No. 3? He’s batting .205 in September with three RBIs. Meanwhile Raburn is stuck to the bench.

        Again, doesn’t make sense, but trying to figure out Leyland’s hunches is like predicting the weather or playing the stock market.

  11. Wow, Leyland is definitely going against the stats. What good is a lefty if he sucks? (Clete, Ramon)

    1. I am completely convinced that Leyland only looks at the L/R matchup and looks no further than that. Way too often, he ignores pitchers numbers against lefties or righties if those numbers go agains the traditional line of thinking AND he ignores historical numbers whenever there is a large sample size (he often seems to go on numbers like 3 for 5 lifetime with a double). It drives me crazy.

      By the way, Figueroa is starting on Saturday. Let’s try to rap this up soon.

  12. I stopped trying to figure Leyland out after he played our $18m man only six out of the eighteen most important innings of the season. (And I’m not saying you only play him because he makes 18m, you play because you’re playing Audrey and because Ordonez is a .300 singles hitter which is better than 90% of the Tigers bats).

  13. More Pavano fun:

    Walks to Tiger batters, cumulative, career (so this includes ABs by Huff on Baltimore, etc): 1 (200 PA)

    Who knew that 5th inning walk on the Aug 2 game (CLE vs DET) was something historic? (Inge).

    1. Am I reading that right? One walk to Tigers hitters in Pavano’s entire pitching career? That is incredible, and perfectly explains why he dominates us so bad. Maybe our guys should stop hacking away and make him throw strikes.

      I’m assuming that’s what everybody else in the league does.

      1. Correctamundo…and only 1 career HR on top of that, so the hacking is so far in vain…not that hacking is necessarily the problem–when we take pitches they are strikes, we get behind in the count, then it gets worse.

        I think, to some extent, it’s luck–he’s avoiding the zone when we’re aggressive, and throwing all strikes when we’re window shopping. In other words he’s just outguessing us. The problem is, get lucky enough times in a row and you gain an aura of unhittability and get in the hitters’ heads.

        Which is why I’m working on a countervailing force of inverse luck. And even if it doesn’t work, at least I got to use “countervailing.”

    1. Babe got a walk off of Pavano? He’s giving up walks to dead guys and Detroit can only manage 1 / 200 PA?

      That makes it even worse…

  16. I hate Bonine too at the moment. What bugs me is that ever since I noticed he was pitching I have been absolutely certain we would lose this game. And he is making it happen in the 1st inning. Silly me!

  17. Come on Bonine. We know you don’t actually have the talent to be pitching on a major league roster and it’s basically Washburn’s fault that you’ve been asked to pitch today… but just channel Verlander and make a miracle happen.

  23. OK.  I’m not doing this lightly.  I contemplated my karmic balance and deemed it positive–many recent good deeds.  I went to my cellar and brought out the ’72 Strohs can I had been saving for just such a moment, and sipped it and pondered all the angles.

    I checked with The Google.

    Yes, there are concerns.  Is the Lucky Rabbit depleting the good karma?  Can I only impart good luck, and not bad?  If I attempt to impart bad, could it actually backfire, and have the opposite effect?

    But what is the downside?  What if I impart good luck to Pavano?  What, he’ll no-hit Detroit?  I mean that would only be slightly better than his average start vs Detroit.  Luck can do nothing FOR him at this point.

    So yes, I am resolved.  I know what I need to do.  Suddenly I am filled with a great feeling of calm…

  26. At least we got Clete up there…Raburn could never have done that…here’s hoping Knapp convinced Bo9 between innings that he was facing the White Sox…

  27. This Pavano is clearly a control pitcher who has these hitters swinging at trash. It is evident by watching. He has no power, but he somewhow got all three hitters in the 1st to go out on pitches that would have been called balls. The question is why they continue to swing st these things and fail to realize how they are being fooled.

  28. Coleman,

    I shudder to think what that ’72 Stroh’s would taste like. Do they still brew that stuff back there?

    1. I disagree–he took one off the leg, immediately sprinted to first, and almost beat Span to the bag…guy can move…

  32. Sigh missed the 1st inning doing a quick home repair and already it looks grim down 2-0. Can the unthinkable happen against Pavano tonight?? I mean if that Mariners announcer can call a players 1st home run on his 2nd at bat on a 3-1 count no less anything is possible right and I concur ’72 Strohs is going hard core there

  33. OH OH possible rally happening or another typical amended 3 LOB moment with swinging first pitch fly outs and meek ground outs and of course the favorite swinging at pitches out of the strike zone 🙁 as the legend of Pavano continues to grow. More fodded for the man on 3rd no outs coming up.

  44. Sweet the beast has awaken actual clutch hits with risp what a conscept from the bottom depths of our line up no less. Whoever has the karma going keep it up!!!

  45. Water rat, water rat
    Don’t even matter who’s at bat
    Detroit in first is where it’s at
    Cause Pavano looks like a water rat.

  46. I need advice. I have a nervous condition and will likely expire if the Tigers lose this lead. Should I watch or just check in for the results.
    One thing I can’t stand is a meek Detroit pitcher trying to put out Maur with pitching. By now they should know it is just pure luck.

  47. Leyland must be reading this blog. You have to continue to play the 18m dollar man in these games (at least so long as he continues to produce). Everyone contributed to that four run rally, but for me, Magglio Ordonez was the catalyst. Without that hit we don’t score any of those runs.

  48. Does Bonine know that you have to throw the ball in what is called the strike zone? Maybe Avila should go out an explain the rules again.

  51. BTW credit where credit is due…
    While I sipped my Strohs and tried to think of what exactly Pavano looked like so I could formulate my curse (all the while trying to decide did the Strohs taste more like the can, or the can like the Strohs?), I thoght to consult The Google. So I ventured “Pavano looks like a” and found this excellent suggestion.

    http://www.addictsports.com/baseball/archive/index.php/t-49394.html

    Awesomely it’s a response to many “Pavano is hot” posts (??), and begins, “you’re all on crack, Pavano looks like a water rat…”. Yes! This is just the thing!

    (OK, the “Posada is yummy” is a bit dubious–he seems a bit rodenty himself. But what do I know…)

  52. ESPN…really?

    Do we HAVE to talk about Brett Favre playing on Monday Night Football. Really?

    This is kinnnnnnd of a big game in and of itself, right?

      1. You are not missing much on FSN. Rod and Mario are talking about how far Rod could kick a ball when he was in fifth grade. This takes me back to earlier this year when they talked about Rod competing in the 1968 Punt, Pass, and Kick competition for three innings. Bravo guys!

        1. You know, I actually enjoyed last night’s double-dip from Fox Sports North. The Twins duo is surprisingly not annoying and know baseball.

          Rick Sutcliffe on the other hand,….I’ll bite my tongue.

          1. Living in Toledo, I always watch the Indians broadcast when the Tigers are playing them. They Indians announcers are pretty bland, but they talk baseball and describe situational baseball particularly well.
            Rod and Mario are fine in small doses. Which is why I miss having mlb.tv when I lived out of the Tigers market. You used to always get the home teams broadcast which was a great way of hearing different announcers throughout the season.
            They only downside is that you have to listen to the “Hawk” nine times a year.

  53. No wonder Pavano doesn’t walk guys with a strike zone like that…strike 3 to Inge wasn’t close

  60. Saw this headline on Yahoo tonight:

    “White Sox 2B Getz to have hernia surgery”

    And I thought, well, everyone on the team should get to have hernia surgery, no matter what position they play.

    1. My favorite Yahoo headline was “With Back Ailing, Yanks Scratch A-Rod.” I mean I doubt that helped; they could have at least massaged him…

    2. Weird, even Yahoo headlines have resorted to webspeak abbreviations. I hope I Getz to watch the Tigerz clinch tomorrow.

    2. Until next year, when we need to keep his plate appearances down so as not to let his 2011 option vest.

  70. Did you see that smile Magglio had after the hit? Attaboy – you deserved it 🙂 Tigers had Pavano right where we wanted him after he dominated the them all year.

  74. Maggs is officially hot. (He has been all month, but apparently Leyland just got the memo).

    To the naysayers: I’m not saying his power numbers warrant a 18 million dollar paycheck, but given a choice between Magglio Ordonez and Clete Thomas, you have to go with Maggs.

    1. Why choose one over the other? Clete’s glove in the field is much more valuable than you think. I think LJ has used both players brilliantly. Raburn too!
      Guillen too too!

        1. You’d really pull our best defender in the outfield with a 5 run lead? We need our best defense to hold the win. Offense is always if-come. Most hitters will fail 66% of time.

          edit- meant to post this below

          1. no, of course not. I’m saying in general. I wasn’t saying to pull him at that at-bat with a five run lead.

      2. I’m sure if there were some argument for favoring putting Paws in the lineup, you’d be the guy to point it out. I have nothing against Clete Thomas; his defense is fantastic, and I even see a huge upside potential in his ability at the plate. But batting him 3rd, and anytime the Tigers face a right-hand pitcher is just plain dumb, imho.

  78. I was saving it till we needed this…I depleted the karma with the Pavano curse….by the way if the team would like to thank me, playoff tickets would not be refused…

  80. Wow, another brilliant move by Leyland. Bunting before Granderson facing a lefty is the equivalent of an NL team bunting before its pitcher is due up.

    1. Granderson is having an off year, but his numbers across the board are very similar to Ian Kinsler’s.

      1. Not sure what Kinsler has to do w/ it, but Granderson is one of the worst hitters in baseball vs. LHP.

          1. Nevermind, you were wondering why Ramon bunted. It was probably to stay out of a DP situation and get both runners in scoring position. It’s a sound strategy. That’s why most managers do it.

          2. who said anything about pinch-hitting? are you confused about which conversation you’e replying to?

            edit: nevermind.

  81. Is it silly to ask why Leyland let Granderson bat? I mean, we know he has no chance to even hit the ball against a left-hander.

    1. He’s been on fire. Hitting lefties better the last two weeks. And you don’t take out your best defensive OF with a 5 run lead..

      Maybe in a tie game or down a run

      1. Well, the lead I am sure make a difference. I guess I just expect the Tigers to have someone else who can, when necessary, play CF.

    1. Yeah, I’m as glad for Clete’s contributions as the next guy, but what is wrong with hitting any of the righties on our bench (Thames, Raburn, etc.) with the bases loaded when Clete has been Tolbertesque since the AS game?

      His swing is so long these days it starts on Monday and ends on Tuesday.

      1. OK, so question answered, but I still don’t get Clete’s PT recently.

        The real question is do you start Clete against Baker tomorrow?

  85. Is the only reason there wasn’t a pinch-hitter for Thomas because that would mean playing Don Kelly in RF the rest of the way?

    1. I think he does, too. Did you see his big smile after he got to the dugout. He really drove that ball – thought it might carry into the stands, but was caught on the warning track. He’s got to be feeling pretty good, what, with that 3 run double and all.

    2. Second that. He smoked the ball that last out — that had double written all over it — hit with authority and power. I hope I’m not just trippin’ but if Maggs power returns even a little this offense wouldn’t suck.

      1. He briefly was at .300 today. I gotta say that I thought he was done. He may not ever post an OPS over .900 again, but I’ll take him as our eventual #2 once Polly is ready to give up the job to Sizemore.

  89. I remember the old saying “Bases on balls will kill a manager.” All a pitcher with a 5 run lead has to do is throw STRIKES! I will never quite understand why they don’t.

    1. Well, me too–but I like it that he’s a bit underrated, too much praise could give him a big head…

      1. My ex-girlfriend calls him Eggo, because his head is egg-shaped. Not because of the waffles.

    1. No, we may need him to blow a big lead tomorrow. I think you start with Lyon and bring in Seay or Ni when a L comes up. Rodney only if the Twinkies get a few.

      1. I agree, no need to bring in Rodney. He’s not in need of work having just pitched last night.

        EDIT: I can’t believe they brought in Rodney.

      2. Well screw me. I don’t like this at all, though I guess we could use Rodney in 3 straight if we need to.

          1. Low pitch count by Rodney tonight, so I’m guessing if the situation calls for it, he’ll throw Rodney out there again. He may also send out Dan Petry if the leprechaun in the dugout suggests it, so who knows.

  97. Looks like this game will be done soon. Does ESPN know how to cover a game that doesn’t last 4 hours?

  99. Great game. All Tigers played to their potential and responded when needed. They are a better team than the Twins.
    I hope we can clinch tommorow. I have put the champaign on ice and will drinl out of my Dad’s Tiger mug!

  102. I am often wrong. I let my cynical bad experiences run my life. But I am sooooooo glad that I was wrong!

    KUDOS TO BONINE!. He really showed he has a pair after that terrible opening inning.

  108. didn’t dare log in again, another win, you guys did just fine…..lets put this away tomorrow.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  109. Hey friends – any interest in starting a post game call in show like the one the Twins guys do (that billfer appeared on last week)? I don’t see this happening every night, but maybe once a week and then after big games. I’m thinking we could rotate the hosts amongst 10 or so principals to defray the cost.

      1. Pretty easy. We pay $40 a month (or ideally, get 12 people to each cover 1 month per year), they set us up with a website and a call in #, we post the call in # on DTW with a link to the audiocast, and bingo, we’re talking about Miner’s 3-2 pitch to Kubel for 45 minutes.

        2. Hmmm, that could turn out to be something fun..I mean in general, not specifically the Miner pitch discussion…

          1. Yeah, I’ll repost tomorrow to see if we can garner more interest. We may have lost a few already tonight. I don’t mind footing the bill for the first month or two, but I’ll need a few more to help out with the hosting duties.

  111. You score runs, you win games. The offense, to its credit, has done its job the last two evenings. Baseball doesn’t need to be stressful every night, but it is when you cannot score. Do it again boys. Give me 6 tomorrow and I’ll take my chances. The hitters will win or lose this for us this week. So far they are winning it for us, but I caution those who think that this is over.

  112. Good idea–those time zone issues and all…I’m sure I lead the DTW Unread Post standings, since I’m just getting going out here in PST when the snoring starts…

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