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Links for 2009-12-19

77 Comments

77 thoughts on “Links for 2009-12-19”

  1. Henning is always funny…he gets an angle on a guy and beats the heck out of it, whether fawning over Inge or criticism of Guillen & Ordonez…looks like Granderson is his most recent target.

    …yawn.

  2. Wow, I cannot recall a Detroit sportwriter taking shots at a current or former athelete the way Lynn Henning has against Granderson. Are the rest of us missing something? Did Henning see a side of Granderson that escaped everyone else or did Granderson’s low BA sink Henning’s fantasy team and he’s still bitter….I don’t get it.

  3. What possible interest could the Tigers have in Cust – a poor fielding OF that strikes out way too much? I know he has some pop (HR’s), but I’m not buying into that rumor.

    Cust will likely end up with the Mariners – who are looking for a DH.

    2. Now that the M’s have Milton Bradley, they’re probably out of the DH market.

      Signing Cust (or someone like him) actually makes sense for the Tigers, especially for if when Guillen is injured. Otherwise they have no one who pitchers fear even a little to hit behind Cabrera. Cust is a left handed Thames, although he is “central New Jersey strong” instead of “country strong.” (My wife’s sister lives in Flemington, NJ – where Cust is originally from and currently owns a baseball academy and is a partner with Jennie Finch in a multi-field baseball/softball facility there.)

      1. Cust is a better hitter than Thames, but that aint saying much. Cust does walk a lot and accordingly has a pretty good OBP, but he’s a poor fielder and has let the AL in strikeouts that past 3 years – and has problems hitting lefties, and more importantly as it relates to the Tigers – other teams are going to offer him more than what the tigers will (and what he’s worth).

        1. If Cust were to be signed, it would be to DH rather than play outfield. His role would probably be about what Huff’s was last year. He’d DH against RH starters and cheer real hard against LH starters. There really aren’t that many teams around who would be able to offer him a platoon DH role, which is what he needs to succeed. His production would probably be a welcome addition at a reasonable cost. The biggest problem would be having to use a roster spot on a part-time DH who can’t play anywhere in the field. I guess that’s about what Thames was last year, though, and they found room for him. 450 or so at bats of .369/.461/.830 (Cust’s line against RHP last year) from the left side does help out this lineup a whole lot.

          He’s certainly not a dream player, but the one thing he does well (get on base and homer against RHP) happens to be a thing this team desperately needs. If the Tigers could get him for one or two years at around 2 million per, I think it’d be a very nice move.

          1. Good points RPS – IF the Tigers could sign him for $2M or less (i doubt they can) and the Tigers can trade either Maggs or Guillen (also doubtful, and preferrably Guillen); signing Cust (namely as a DH against righties) could make sense.

            1. …and if the Tigers were to sign Cust, i’m sure Lloyd McClendon would help him solve that strike-out problem… just look at the miracles he’s worked on that issue with Granderson, Inge and Thomas… just kidding.

              Seriously, name one Tiger hitter who has improved under Lloyd McClendon’s tutelage… there has to be one, right?

              1. McClendon gets the least out of our hitters that’s for darn sure, but it’s not clear as to how to split the blame, because Leyland could be overriding him on certain issues, as well as it is Leyland’s responsibility to fix the obvious flaws in our general hitting creed.

              3. Yeah I saw that article, it was a nice piece. It doesn’t answer the questions that we NEED answered, such as what the heck are Leyland and DD telling this guy specifically? And what is he telling the players? That’s where the problems lie. DD can talk about plate discipline all he wants, but WHAT does he consider good plate discipline and what does he believe is the way to achiever proper plate discipline? It’s the what and how that are most relevant. Anybody can say we should just “do better” in any stat category, but if you don’t have the design of the means to accomplish that in the correct way, then it doesn’t mean anything.

                You can’t pinpoint-quantify McClendon properly w/o having an interview with him and Leyland and DD or anybody that is directly involved with effecting how he does his job.

              4. “You can’t pinpoint-quantify McClendon properly w/o having an interview with him and Leyland and DD or anybody that is directly involved with effecting how he does his job.”

                Managers and coaches can ‘say all the right things’, but if the players aren’t listening, it doesn’t matter now does it? Also, why should these professionals break down every last detail about their coaching for you and I? After all, aren’t you holding on to some trade secrets of your own, TSE? I call hypocrite.

              5. I never said that they should break that stuff down for us. Where am I being hypocritical? I’m one of the last guys you would ever see acting as hypocrite or contradicting myself or sound logic. I am of the mindset that I operate with logic in everything that I do. I am meticulous with staying on track with my logical thoughts, you seem to be digging around for holes that don’t exist.

                And you are missing out on what I’m talking about with hitting instruction. There are things that the hitters can choose to do, but there are other things that they have to do, such as follow instructions. You can’t instruct a guy to not strike out, but you can instruct him on not to swing if a certain pitch count and situation comes up.

                We consistently train our hitters to behave incorrectly in many situations, and that creates hitting deficiencies that are NOT the players’ faults. The Tigers have a weak understanding of batting logic and do not know how to optimize our chances of producing runs. We could get a SIGNIFICANT offensive boost by simply adjusting our hitting instructions. It is an EXTREME rarity that you hear stories of guys who will flat out defy orders of his manager. That’s like calling for a bunt and having the player swinging away instead and hitting a homer, it virtually never happens except in the movies. The players will listen because they have to listen. If they don’t llisten then they are going to get a lesser amount out of themselves and naturally be replaced by guys that can follow instructions later on. It shouldn’t take very long to find the 1 guy on our 40 man roster that will defy hitting orders, if such a guy existed.

              6. “I never said that they should break that stuff down for us. ”

                false

                “It doesn’t answer the questions that we NEED answered, such as what the heck are Leyland and DD telling this guy specifically? And what is he telling the players?”

              7. We don’t NEED that info to survive. We NEED that info if we want to accurately quantify McClendon. But nowhere in my statement do I suggest we should have an entitlement to that info.

                You have labeled something as “false” incorrectly.

              8. TSE,

                First you say: “And what is he telling the players?”

                Then you somehow know that: “We consistently train our hitters to behave incorrectly in many situations, and that creates hitting deficiencies that are NOT the players’ faults.”

                So when you say: “I’m one of the last guys you would ever see acting as hypocrite or contradicting myself or sound logic.” – I laugh. At you.

              9. Ok, thanks for sharing???

                There’s also no contradiction there. It is a fact that I don’t know what he is telling the players and that I’d like to know. It is my opinion that the Tigers swing in clear cut situation when a no-swing order should be administered. The fact that they swing at those pitches regularly and consistently like they were told they had the green light, which is often something that Leyland confirms time and time again when he talks about that, are issues that seem to be why I’m confused.

                DD says he wants plate discipline, yet our players are instructed to act illogically, why is there no change in those orders? That’s why I want to know what DD is telling him that he considers good “plate discipline”. In a nutshell, I “suspect” DD has a bass-ackwards hitting strategy in his mind and ultimately he funnels that down to Leyland who funnels that down to McClendon. It’s a huge mess. And it’s unclear as to how to split the ratio of blame across the 3 men.

                Does that help clear things up?

              10. TSE,

                When part of the exception I took to your comments revolved around the duality (read: contradiction) of you seemingly knowing exactly what the coaches were telling the players, yet demanding said knowledge – then yes, rephrasing most of your statements to reflect conjecture rather than fact (as they were originally phrased) will “clear things up”. However, without this new context, your previous comments remain…conflicting.

              11. Hmm, well then feel free to specifically state what is confusing and I will clear it up for you. I don’t see any aspect of anything I said that should create any confusion without the aid of false assumptions or incorrect interpretations of my statements.

              12. TSE,

                So when you said:

                “We consistently train our hitters to behave incorrectly in many situations, and that creates hitting deficiencies that are NOT the players’ faults. The Tigers have a weak understanding of batting logic and do not know how to optimize our chances of producing runs.”

                I was supposed to assume that you were speaking of your assumption as to how the Tigers operate?

                Because what is written is declarative on your part, there was no “I think” to be found. One would therefore presume some knowledge of the Tigers’ methods on your part. This was in turn shown to be lacking, based on your own questions. Now, I know you’ve had trouble correctly interpreting your own comments in the past (unsurprising as that may be), but I’m telling you how that’s how your comment reads.

                Please do keep responding, its been quite a slow day at work for me.

              13. Well my statement there is a combination of a supposition and opinion and written from that perspective It’s not a declaration of fact, nor does it read as such. Why would you interpret it that way when the only way that would make sense is if I was DD or his ghost monitoring everything that he does? I clearly set up a foundation of showing that I don’t have the knowledge that I could have if I was his ghost, so you shouldn’t make that assumption. You are getting confused by breaking the laws of common sense deduction of the information available to you.

                I’ve even come full circle by explaining some of the details that have led to my supposition, such as seeing the hitters swing consistently in illogical situations. It doesn’t make any difference to me if DD is telling them things that I think are wrong, or if he is telling them nothing at all.

                It is my personal opinion that DD MUST either be giving them wrong instructions, or failing to give them proper instructions.

                If you are going to try and harp on somebody for what they TECHNICALLY say, then you really should do those people the courtesy of being technically correct yourself in exposing a correct flaw in the technical language, but none of that exists here in these few posts. It’s considered very rude in society to do that to people unless you have a valid claim. My advice to you is to not treat people like that unless you are sure you are right.

                But since you like looking at technical things, then I will give you something you could hold onto for the future when you do want to play these games. For example, you could get me to admit that there is some remote tiny possible chance that the Matrix exists and that our reality isn’t what we think it is. Once you do that, you can unravel my words from previous posts that are written under the assumption that the Matrix does not exist, and a lot of things I said wouldn’t make sense in a manufactured Matrix reality. There’s a lot of ways to find technical flaws in my previous statements if you use a perspective like that.

              15. Wrong again, my first name is Scott, you’re batting .000 today I see.

                That solves it, Andre is Dane Sardinha.

                TSE would be more like the value of the output of say….Scott Sizemore going 5-5 with 5 grand slams. Pretty big bang for the buck, especially when you aren’t paying the guy commensurate with what he has provided in return.

            2. I’d rather trade Maggs or Guillen and not acquire Cust, even better. It would be like saying that we had Cust and just found a way to dump him to another team…. Great news everybody, Cust is finally gone! Now we can focus on selling off the other substandard players that are bogging us down. *sighs*

  6. Loved the post at Take 75 North. It’s a killer to watch them all go, though. That ’06 team was something so special. Seems like everyone is moving. My own son and diehard Tiger fan is leaving Michigan to look for work. I bought him an Old English D hoodie for Christmas.

    Looks like Rodney is going to be an Angel. I’ll miss him, too. To see him really blossom into a bonified closer this year was a thing of beauty, imho.

    1. He should go to NYC and get a job and then he can still root for Grandy!

      Sorry to hear your son is moving though. It’s too bad that Michigan has failed to provide him with a reason to stay.

  7. Fernando Rodney has signed with the Angels for 2 years, $11 million (per 97.1 FM the ticket). A lot less than he was seeking, but it seems about right.

    1. Wow how generous of Rodney giving them such a discount off the sticker price, he must be feeling the Christmas spirit!

  8. Totally off topic, but merry Christmas / happy recently ended Chanukkah / joyous Kwanzaa / awesome Festivus / super great Winter Solstice Pagan Ritual to all. Be safe and remember : You never get what you really want. But that’s cool.

  9. Bay and Holliday are without contract. Two years ago when A-Rod was in the same situtation, Boras used the Tigers as leveler. Will he use them again ?

  10. Someone told me OAK signed Coco Crisp. He is going to replace Holliday? I can’t believe Rajai Davis would lose his CF job after the year he had in ’09.

  11. ESPN lists this year’s worst free agent signings (so far) – 4 of the first 5 are ex-Tigers (Lyon, Polanco, Rodney and Pudge) – and i agree with ESPN and the Tigers for not throwing that kind of money at these guys.
    per ESPN: ” •Placido Polanco, Phillies – three years, $18MM. Where was the demand for a 34-year-old second baseman coming off a .727 OPS? What other club would’ve offered even one or two years at $5MM per?
    •Brandon Lyon, Astros – three years, $15MM. Lyon’s not a bad pitcher, but this commitment is excessive. He’s not a high strikeout guy, and his ’09 control was a career-worst.
    •Fernando Rodney, Angels – two years, $11MM. What would Rodney have gotten without the 37 saves? I have a reliever, 33 in March, who posted a 4.40 ERA, 7.3 K/9, and 4.9 BB/9. Can I find a one-year, $2MM offer?
    •Jason Kendall, Royals, Ivan Rodriguez, Nationals – two years, $6MM. Kendall is 35, Pudge is 38, and neither topped a .700 OPS in ’09. Gregg Zaun had already signed a reasonable one-year, $2.15MM deal.”

    1. Have to agree on the Lyon signing as excessive. But not because of his control. 9 of his 31 BBs were intententional so Lyon deserves a little slack. Still all in all a poor signing for the ‘stros

  12. I agree these signings were inflated above expected market value…except for Lyon. Something I always do is recalculate pitching stats MINUS the intentional walks; those come from the manager, not the pitcher. So with that, we see Brandon’s AVG against was .050 lower than league average, and his OBP against was .070 lower. Since AVG figures into OBP, we can look at the difference between the two and see his “control” was .020 better than league average. Just because he’s had better seasons (in this one regard) doesn’t mean what he did isn’t good. That’s like complaining Babe Ruth ONLY hit 54 home runs in 1928.

    What’s done is done. The season he had for the Tigers, compared to what we paid him, is one of the all-time great values in baseball.

    Besides, I like his beard. Give me a staff of Lyons, Harens, and Nathans and I’ll take it all the way.

  13. This will be the most interesting Spring Training the Tigers have had in long time. The hierarchy of the bullpen needs to be established. Also we haven’t had any rookie position players starting in quite awhile. Wasn’t Granderson the last rookie position player we started?

  14. G-man won yesterday in the Venezuelan Professional League Round Robin( Playoff). 6 IP. 6 H. 3 ER. 3 SO. 2 W.
    He was : GP4.S 2.W 0. L 1.IP 11.0 . HA 13. HRA 0. RA 7. ER 5.W 4.SO 10.ERA 4.09.In the regular season.No sabermetric available , sorry.
    No worries about era ,the league era is over 4.
    Callaspo, Escobar,Andrus , Kid Rod, and Pandoval ( an awful game yesterday) are also playing in the Round Robin

  15. Its a pity that DD is not working until the next week. Jay Marshall ,LH reliever, was designated for assignment and someone can take him before Detroit

    2. I like Valverde. For the right price, 3 years/$24 million, I’d be all over him. At that price, he might be easy to flip at the trade deadline. So even if we lose draft picks on him now, we could get some prospects back later on.

      1. If the Tigers do get him, it won’t be for that price or length. They don’t like even two-year deals to relievers, let alone three years, and I don’t see them spending $8m on a role they think they can fill in-house for a fraction of the price.

        Also, no guarantee he’s a Type-A free agent when we want to part ways.

        1. That’s what Todd Jones made in his 3 seasons here. Any serious bid to acquire Valverde’s services would be in that 3 year / $24M range. Valverde made $8M in 2009 and he is asking for $8M per season according to mlbtraderumors.com. He’ll get a multi-year deal for certain, 2 or 3 years @ $8 M per season. For whom is the only question.

          1. “from whom” is what I’m sure you meant. there were 4 deals reported, only 2 of which were multi-year. if we must have him, i pray for the 1 year deal. if we have $8m to spend, I ask why not address the all RH lineup? the Tigers have more pitchers than they know what to do with, get a lefty bat.

            1. Total, total agreement, Andre. If there is still eight million to be spent, I’d much rather see Carlos Delgado and/or Doug Davis. The statistical difference between Valverde and Bobby Seay (if you’re willing to throw out the last 10 days of the year when Seay pitched injured) last year was negligible. I’d rather see Seay closing. Or Perry. Or Schlereth. Or a cardboard cutout of Zumaya duct taped to a pitching machine. Valverde is certainly a nice pitcher; but if the front office uses the money saved on Granderson to go buy a closer, methinks the natives revolt.

            2. Nope, I meant “for whom”. Why you want to nitpick everything is quite funny and a losing battle.

              1. to answer your awkwardly phrased question/statement: i nitpick because awkward/incorrect grammar is repulsive to my soul…unless it is my own, in which case i have no problem with it. the same goes for my selective capitalization and erratic punctuation.

                trust me, you meant to say “from whom”, otherwise it makes it sound like Valverde is an intermediary between parties, getting a deal for somebody else.

          2. I don’t mind 3 yr @ $8 million per year either given the guy’s track record – especially since it’s not my money. He’s young and he’s been very good almost every year in the bigs. That gives you 3 opportunities to unload him at the trade deadline for some top level prospects if you’re having a bad year and decide the money is too much.

            1. A multi-year $8m contract for a closer (you never pay for saves!) in an off-season were cost-saving was used in part to help justify some of the more controversial moves would have some interesting consequences.

              My VERY un-scientific look at last year’s “top-ten” closers (in terms of saves) yields a salary range from $15m to $420k, with the average salary coming to ~$6m. No way should they spend $8m + picks on somebody that’s only going to throw 50 in.

              1. My only thoughts on this: Valverde has a cool nickname – Papa Grande. Otherwise, I’d be hard pressed to find a good reason to overpay him. He’s very Rodnian. Been there, done that. I remember seeing Papa Grande as a Tucson Sidewinder a few years ago. He was too good for AAA. So I guess that’s something…

              2. Cool nicknames could be an important and underappreciated factor–teams who win a lot tend to have more players with nicknames, although there is I admit a cause/effect issue there.

                Plus, The Pineapple is now a Phillie…

          1. Using a little imagination, signing Valverde is like trading Rodney and the 19th pick for Jose and the 46th pick.

            Which is probably a steal…especially if the salary estimate is right. FR – 2/11mil, JV 2/12 mil.

            I could handle that.

            On the other hand, signing Jose really flies in the face of trading Grandy for “payroll reduction.” (It’s gonna be a long time before it doesn’t suck to talk about THAT trade.)

  20. It is true I really dont know what the payroll reduction thing with trading Granderson was all about. It is really stupid then the stand pat on the bullpen til now perplexed me enough to make me almost not want to watch this team next year. But with this signing as almost a steal for such a dominant closer, Im pretty excited. The closer by committee would have been the final nail in the coffin for a lot of fans who have become disoriented by Zoom Zoom, and Perry. Daniel Schlereth from what I heard needs help finding his own strike zone. And our pitchers we drafted last two years either are busts, or arent ready.

    As for our draft pick, yea it sucks but we do get TWO compensation picks which sometimes are hidden gems or better then 1st rounders.

    Overall if he signs, it will be a overhaul upgrade, great mentor to Daniel Schlereth, or Perry whoever takes over, as well has getting one of the top 10 or even 5 closers in the Majors at only 6 mil a year. DD did good on this one if he signs, if not then Tigers should put up a white flag at Comerica from opening day!

    1. It would be a great signing out of context. However, it seems as if the Tigers have more pitching than they know what to do with as it is, especially in the bullpen.

      Don’t get me wrong, he’s an upgrade for sure, but the offense isn’t exactly stacked and team doesn’t project to start that many lefty bats now does it? So what’s the money better spent on, pitching or batting? That’s outside of the fact that some of these offseason moves look strange in retrospect, given this supposed $6-7m we have available for him.

      Its hard to question an upgrade, but consider that two of the top-ten closers made less than $500k. Rodney made what, $2.7m last year, saving 37 games…what’s the over/under on Valverde topping that? Worth the extra cost?

      Don’t start land-wars in Asia, draft kickers, or pay for saves.

      1. dre,

        I’m surprised at you. Normally you are spot on with your analysis but you fell into the trap of looking at saves. First you said, “Rodney made what, $2.7m last year, saving 37 games…what’s the over/under on Valverde topping that? Worth the extra cost?”. It’s not a question of cost here, its a question of measuring the proper metrics (not saves).

        However, you redeemed yourself and got it right with, “Don’t start land-wars in Asia, draft kickers, or pay for saves.” (which is genius, by the way)

        They aren’t paying for saves, they are paying for:

        Valverde: 9.33 K/9, 1.19 WHIP, and .626 OPS against
        vs.
        Rodney 7.26 K/9, 1.47 WHIP, and .731 OPS against
        (these number from 2009 only, but aren’t too far off from career norms)

        Rodney’s numbers aren’t bad, but Valverde is the superior pitcher. Nobody would argue this point, I think. The question you should be asking is: is another 2 K/9, 0.3 fewer baserunners per inning and .105 OPS points worth an extra $1.5 million per year (comparing the rumored 2 years/$14 mill to Rodney’s 2 year/$11 mill deal). I would say it most definitely is, if we can get him at that price.

        1. Mark,

          You’re right, I took the easy route looking at saves. My main objection to this supposed deal is that it seems to me that $7m could better be used upgrading the lineup, rather than the pen. Again, its hard to nitpick an upgrade, but I think we’ll get a lot out of the young / cheap arms we already have in the pen and I’d love to seem them add a bat.

      2. Sounds like a threefold plan for success to me!

        I will be paying attention this season to Milton Bradley’s response to being acquired by Seattle. If the Cubs took Silva, surely they would have taken Robertson. For that matter, maybe Dontrelle could have been moved.

        Offensively speaking, a couple “old” guys, playing for 31 million no less, could give us the feel of an upgrade by returning to career norms. I have no idea what Guillen has left, but Maggs’ second half of last season offers a lot of optimism. I heard on some Tiger podcast (poor citing attempt alert) that Leyland was predicting 90 RBIs for Ordonez this season. I hope that can be interpreted he plans to bat the Big Tilde 3rd…as opposed to Clete.

        Optimism simply for optimism’s sake: I believe Verlander’s best season is still ahead.

        It’s January, it’s frickin’ cold outside, and I cannot wait to get this season started. Hopefully Bilfer is someplace warm and sharpening some sabremetrics about how the Tigers will flourish, freed from the weight of Grandy…

      3. IMO, money is best spent on pitching right now.

        The only FA position player that even catches my interest is Felipe Lopez . Lopez is a pretty good hitter and would be a great super utility guy. He’s also good enough to be a starter at either 3B/2B if Inge or Sizemore have setbacks. I doubt Lopez would want to play here though. He’ll probably wants a guarantee that he’ll be the starter at either 2B, 3B, or SS.

        Otherwise, I don’t think the FA market is going to help us hitting wise. Valverde is the best single option for the Tigers to make the team better.

        I cross my fingers that we already have that good lefty hitter. We can still hope that Clete Thomas, Alex Avila, or Jeff Larish up their game to the next level.

    2. I think the closer is one of the most pivotal players on a team. Not much frustrates me more than blown saves. I think we’ll have even more small leads to protect this season also.

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