Monthly Archives: May 2010

2010 Season, Defense, Roster Management

Thinking more about the roster shuffle

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I’ll be the first to admit that I don’t know how Carlos Guillen moving to second base will work. And even if I think I knew, I’m the guy who thought Scott Sizemore would outhit Austin Jackson and that Max Scherzer would be the biggest contributor from the big trade so being wrong is nothing new here. However I like the move and I like what the Tigers are trying to do.

Impact on Defense

It is interesting that the Tigers went with an offensive first approach in 2008, saw it fail miserably, and then went with a big defensive emphasis the following year. The 2010 season saw a little balance and something in between.

The results in 2010 have certainly been mixed. The Tigers error total is shockingly bad. The errors themselves have certainly been shockingly bad with dropped fly balls at in opportune moments. It feels as if if the Tigers have had more than their share of high WPA errors.

Pitchers like Rick Porcello have seen very high BABIPs and the team also ranks 22nd in MLB in terms of defensive efficiency. John Dewan’s +/- system has the team at +5 runs which ranks the team 20th in MLB. With UZR things are better and the team ranks 10th overall.

With mixed reports such as these I’d put the data together and say the team is a little below average with the glove. So why make a move that introduces a defensively challenged player into a prominent defensive role? Because Scott Sizemore was struggling in that regard as well.

Sizemore’s strength was never his glove, but the Tigers second base defense is one of the reasons for the overall struggles. The Tigers rank in the bottom third in both +/- and UZR at the position (not just Sizemore, the position as a whole). Interestingly enough the Tigers rank tenth in revised zone rating, so the second baseman have done a good job with balls hit to them. They just haven’t had the range to extend the position with only 1 play made outside of the zone.

That’s a long explanation to say that the Tigers are only weakened defensively if Guillen proves to be awful at the position.

Injury Risk

Guillen is a pretty good player when healthy. When healthy though has been a fleeting state for Guillen. Second base won’t make it easier for Guillen to stay healthy, but at this point I don’t know that it matters. The Tigers made him the primary DH and he still got hurt. Guillen will likely get injured again at some point this season but I doubt that second base would be the culprit.

Instead of trying to keep him healthy, the Tigers should try to get the most value from him when he is healthy.

Prudent Roster Management

Here’s the part that I like the most. The Tigers are really extending their 25 man roster by actively making it a 28-30 man roster. The doubleheader was a nuisance but it set a lot of things in motion. Even with the shuffle not playing out like I speculated the team is still doing a good job of trying to get the right mix for the situation.

The Tigers haven’t been particularly mindful of service time or option status under Dombrowski, and I don’t mean that in a bad way. The Tigers will use the players that they think will give the team the best chance to win rather than trying to milk out an extra year of club control.

Long term this has implications of course, but I don’t think trying to win now is a bad strategy.

2010 Season, Roster Management

Tigers option Sizemore and Scherzer – Guillen to play 2B

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The Tigers have optioned Scott Sizemore and Max Scherzer to Toledo. In their place come Armando Galarraga and Danny Worth. Worth wasn’t on the 40 man roster so his contract was purchased.

The Galarraga move isn’t the least bit surprising, he was the scheduled starter. The fact that the Tigers think Scherzer isn’t close enough to correcting his problems in side sessions is pretty telling and disappointing.

Also disappointing has been Sizemore’s performance offensively where he hasn’t been able to find that line drive stroke that produced an 889 OPS between AA and AAA last year.

Danny Worth was drafted by the Tigers in 2007 and his defense earned him a quick assignment at Lakeland. The question all along has been his bat. Worth is OPS’ing .665 for Toledo this year so it hasn’t exactly blossomed. My guess is this is a chance for Sizemore to fix some things while putting some pressure on Adam Everett as the defensive specialist.

Also, it should be noted that Worth was selected over Brent Dlugach who has very similar rate stats (673 OPS this year) but who is striking out at an epic rate with 52 K’s in 149 at-bats.

Also factoring into the middle infield situation is the fact that Carlos Guillen will need  a spot in a couple weeks and Brennan Boesch is playing too well to sit. Guillen has begun taking infield at both second base and shortstop.

UPDATE: Carlos Guillen will be the regular second baseman when he comes off the DL. When was the last season without a major position shift for Guillen?

2010 Season, Game Post

Game 2010.037: Red Sox at Tigers

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Dontrelle Willis is scheduled to start today. Not having heard anything about the status of his flu-like symptoms that’s all I have to work with. Jon Lester takes the ball for the Red Sox.

Willis faced Boston once last season and he didn’t allow a hit. He did however allow 5 walks in 2.1 innings and 5 runs came around to score. Willis has been pitching much better than last year though so I don’t know how relevant that is.

Lester has been quite good this year. He’s striking out a batter an inning, limiting homers (4 in 43.2 innings) and not walking too many.

2010 Season, Minors

Tigers Minor League Wrap 5.14.2010

Indianapolis 8 Toledo 1
The largest crowd in Toledo Mud Hen history saw a clunker. Ryan Raburn went 2 for 4 and Brent Dlugach and Robinzon Diaz added two hit games as well. Ryan Ketchner allowed 4 runs on 5 hits (2 were homers), 3 walks, and 2 strikeouts in 5.1 innings. Scot Drucker struggled and allowed 5 baserunners and 3 runs in 1.2 innings.

Erie 2 Bowie 3
Cale Iorg homered. Andy Dirks, Michael Bertram, and Shawn Roof had the other hits. Andy Oliver pitched only 1 inning due to an hour rain delay that hit in the second inning. Anthony Shawler allowed 1 run on a solo homer in 3 innings of relief while striking out 4.

Lakeland 5 Tampa 1
Alden Carrithers, Rawley Bishop, Bryan Pounds, and Josh Workman all had two hit games. Adam Wilk had his second strong start in a row with 1 run surrendered on 4 hits and a walk to go with 5 K’s in 7 innings. He’s walked one batter in his last 25.2 innings.

South Bend 3 West Michigan 4
Wade Gaynor doubled and singled and has seen his season line climb to 276/340/410 after notching 7 extra base hits in his last 10 games. Avisail Garcia tripled and singled and Jamie Johnson added 2 hits. Ramon Lebron allowed 2 runs on 2 hits, 2 walks and 8 strikeouts in 5 innings. Kevin Faulk pitched 3 innings of scoreless ball with 3 K’s to win the extra inning affair.

2010 Season, Game Post

Another Scherzer slugfest

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Something is wrong with Max Scherzer. Tonight’s first inning was some kind of awful as Scherzer couldn’t locate his offspeed pitches and his fastball wasn’t so deceptive either. It’s one thing to have a rough go of it, but two of the last three starts saw the Tigers out of the game after the first inning.

Even when Scherzer could get ahead, he couldn’t finish off a hitter. He hung a 2 strike change-up to Marco Scutaro. He got to two strikes on Dustin Pedroia before Pedroia landed one in the bullpen. He went ahead of Kevin Youkilis 0-2 and 4 pitches later it was a walk.

I don’t know what is wrong with Scherzer, but something isn’t right. It wouldn’t surprise me to hear before his next start that he has been tipping pitches and they think they’ve got it figured out. Or that it was a simple mechanical fix. Or that Scherzer has a shoulder or elbow injury.

Scherzer isn’t getting hitters out with any sort of consistency, and this goes far beyond the fact he went from the NL to the AL. He has lost nearly 2mph off his fastball from last year, and his other pitches have seen similar drops. If it is measurement error, so be it. But if the result is due to injury and/or mechanics there is a larger problem. The Hardball Times examined the impact of velocity on runs allowed and did find a relationship, but even then it wouldn’t account for all of Scherzer’s struggles this year.

The Rest

  • The Tigers exercised patience and generated some baserunners by picking up six walks. Unfortunately Magglio Ordonez was the only Tigers hitter able to get hits (3 for 3 with a walk). The Tigers had a few chances to narrow the gap but couldn’t get the big hit.
  • Miguel Cabrera was completely stymied for the first time in awhile.
  • Brennan Boesch managed an RBI single on a breaking pitch low and away. It was a great pitch, and a better piece of hitting.
  • Brad Thomas had a very nice game, eating 3 innings. He threw 30 of his 43 pitches for strikes and fanned 3 and didn’t walk a hitter.
  • This didn’t impact the game at all, but in the first inning Austin Jackson led off with a walk. Granted, the Tigers were down 5 but Jackson is fast and Victor Martinez has thrown out 11% of runners this year. Yet Jackson stayed tethered to first base. I don’t understand this.
2010 Season, Game Post

Game 2010.036: Red Sox at Tigers

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The Tigers welcome in another American League East squad as the Boston Red Sox come to town. The Red Sox have been below .500 for a good chunk of the season but a 7-3 stretch has them at 18-17.

Max Scherzer has been roughed up in his last 3 starts with the Twins doing the bulk of the damage. His last start against the Indians wasn’t so hot either, but a few of the runs came in an inning that saw multiple infield hits. Not great, but not that worrisome. Still he needs to follow the lead of the Bonderman/Porcello and turn things around right quick.

Clay Bucholz has a shiny 3.82 ERA. He’s been “helped” in that 6 of the 21 runs he’s allowed have been unearned. He has 25 K’s in his 35.1 innings, but 17 of those came in 2 starts and he only has 8 total strikeouts in his other 5 starts this season. His biggest asset this year is limiting homers with only 2 allowed.

It will be interesting to see the Tigers game plan against Bucholz. Twenty-two times he’s had the first pitch put in play and the result is a .476 batting average. So aggressiveness may be in order (over his career that number is still a robust .398). On the flip side his OPS against starts to rise once he gets north of 76 pitches. So there is benefit to making him work as well.

Your lineup is:

  1. Jackson, CF
  2. Damon, DH
  3. Ordonez, RF
  4. Cabrera, 1B
  5. Boesch, LF
  6. Inge, 3B
  7. Sizemore, 2B
  8. Laird, C
  9. Santiago, SS

Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers – May 14, 2010 – MLB.com Preview

2010 Season, Game Post

Tigers take down Yankees

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The bullpen has been strong, the offense has been uneven but generally productive, but the starting pitching has been struggling. I guess the cure for that is to welcome in one of the most prolific offenses in baseball because the starting pitching this series was outstanding.

We’ll throw out the Brad Thomas start, because he isn’t really a starter. The three conventional starters that pitched in the series combined to allow just 2 runs

Detroit IP H R ER BB SO HR
Verlander 6.2 4 0 0 4 4 0
Bonderman 7 5 2 2 1 7 0
Porcello 7 4 0 0 3 2 0
Totals 20.2 13 2 2 8 13 0

In both Verlander’s and Porcello’s starts the bullpen maintained the shutout meaning the Yankees were shut out twice in a series for the first time this century. Is it the start of something for this rotation (and to be fair Verlander has been pretty good of late)?

  • Don Kelly played some very nice defense the last 2 days. He had an excellent day at third base and helped to preserve the shutout in the 8th inning of the series finale with a very good play at the wall.
  • Brennan Boesch. Yep. I remember being skeptical about Leyland slotting him into the 5th spot in the lineup when he debuted. It seemed like a lot of pressure on the kid and more Leyland lineup stubborn-ess (can’t disrupt the rest of the lineup so the sub has to bat where the normal starter would have). It seems to have worked out.
  • The mohawks. I just don’t know. It workend for Jeremy Bonderman but not for Phil Coke. I do think we should track the performance of those with mohawks, both pre and post splits.
  • Gerald Laird coming up with multiple RBI is reason for rejoicing, even with the “blistering” shot that Laird tossed into shallow right field.
  • I’m thrilled with how the Tigers played this week. Taking 3 out of 4 against New York is always reason for excitement. In the end though the Tigers outscored the Yankees by all of 1 run. Great results from a W-L perspective and enjoy it, but don’t confuse this with domination.
2010 Season

Tigers Minor League Wrap 5.13.2010

Toledo 1 Durham 6
Lauren Gagnier didn’t make it out of the 4th inning before allowing 5 runs on 8 hits and a walk. He did strike out 4. Robbie Weinhardt fanned 3 and didn’t allow any of the 5 batters he faced to reach base. Casper Wells doubled, singled, and walked.

Erie 5 Bowie 3
Cesar Nicolas homered and singled. Michael Bertram and Josh Burrus each had 2 hits. Thad Weber struck out 6 and walked 4 while allowing 3 runs in 6.2 innings. Brendan Wise went the rest of the way for the save allowing just a hit.

Charlotte 2 Lakeland 4
Alden Carrithers went 3 for 3 with a walk. Brent Wyatt doubled, tripled, and walked. Brayan Villarreal went 5 innings and allowed 2 runs on 6 hits, 3 walks, and 5 K’s. Cory Hamilton pitched 3 scoreless innings and Miguel Mejia got the save.

South Bend 0 West Michigan 7
Eric Roof doubled and tripled and knocked in 4 runs. Hernan Perez had 3 hits. Avisail Garcia, Michael Rockett, and Alexis Espinoza all had 2 hit games. Giovany Soto fanned 8 in 6.1 shutout innings.

Roster Moves

There have been a number of roster moves announced over the course of the last week. They are:

  • Nolan Moody was assigned to West Michigan from the Connecticut Tigers
  • Cory Hamilton was bumped up to Lakeland from West Michigan
  • Angel Flores went from Toledo to Lakeland.
  • Max St. Pierre took Flores’ spot in Toledo, leaving Erie.
  • Andy Bouchie went from Lakeland to Erie ending the catcher shuffle.
  • Anthony Shawler was moved from Lakeland to Erie.
  • Lauren Gagnier was promoted to Toledo from Erie
  • Wilfredo Ramirez was assigned to Lakeland from the VSL Tigers squad.
  • Lester Oliveros hit the DL again
  • Jason Waddell was placed on the restricted list and subsequently released.
2010 Season, Roster Management

Casper Wells to join the Tigers

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It appears that the Tigers are calling up another young outfielder. The rumor has it that Casper Wells has been called up to the 25 man roster.

There likely won’t be an official roster move until tomorrow, but my guess is that Jim Leyland would like another position player on the bench the next two days. Ryan Raburn isn’t eligible to come back (barring a DL trip for somebody) until he’s spent 10 days on optional assignment.

Here’s how I think things will play out:

  • Wells will take Alfredo Figaro’s spot on the roster effective tomorrow.
  • Armando Galarraga will be recalled to start on Sunday. Otherwise somebody would be pitching on short rest (either Jeremy Bonderman or Rick Porcello). Galarraga last started on  Tuesday so Sunday would be normal rest for him.
  • When Galarraga is activated Wells will be sent down.
  • Galarraga will likely be returned to Toledo after his start and another position player will be called up until Raburn can return. My guess would be Wilkin Ramirez at that point.

Wells has been struggling this year with a 191/268/374 line but he does have 5 homers.

2010 Season, Game Post

Game 2010.033: Yankees at Tigers

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The Tigers were rained out for the second time in a week. This time though they’ll try to do a double header with this being the Yankees only trip to Detroit.

Rick Porcello will face off against Javier Vazquez in the early game. Both pitchers are off to rough starts.

Vazquez has combined a horrible walk rate with a career high fly ball rate (and subsequently 8 homers in 23.1 innings) to a 9.78 ERA.

Porcello is still getting ground balls (55%) but quite a few are turning into hits. He has a .339 BABIP against on ground balls and a normal rate is closer to .260. He’s also only stranding 58% of runners which is leading to longer innings and shorter outings.