Yearly Archives: 2010

2010 Season, Game Post

Game 2010.103: Tigers at Red Sox (and trade deadline talk)

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The Tigers buzz in the media centers on Valverde.  John Lowe over at the Freep wonders if Vaverde is out of sync with irregular work and Jason Beck weighs in on his blog (thanks Vince in MN for posting this morning).  There are also trade rumors (more like wishful thinking) swirling around with at least a few Tiger mentions.  Please post something if it breaks, I’ll do the same.

This afternoon’s game is the Fox National game, which usually means that the people who really want to see it get blacked out, but best I can tell, it’s showing in Detroit and in Dallas.

Matsuzaka goes for the Red Sox.  He’s 7-3 on the season with a 4.09 ERA and a respectable 1.34 WHIP.  He’s been pretty good as of late with three straight quality starts, but the key is to get to him early.  He walks over 4.5 batters per 9 and gives up a lot of fly balls (31.3% GB rate), though his HR rate for the year is roughly half of his career rate.  That said, I’m not sure when was the last time that he faced Jhonny Peralta.

Scherzer has been tremendous as of late, with a 2.48 ERA for the month and better than a strikeout per inning.  Scherzer has a tendency to run up his pitch counts, though he has thrown into the 7th in 5 of his past 9 outings.  He might want to be careful v. Big Papi, who is 2-2 with 2 Peralta’s in his career versus Scherzer.

We’ll get the lineup posted as soon as it is avail.

2010 Season, Game Post

Game 2010.102: Tigers at Red Sox

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(try to stay relaxed like Battlestar is here)

The boys of summer kick off a three game set at Fenway vs. Jon Lester and the Red Sox.

Jon Lester is good at pitching.  He had a perfect game blown up in the 6th inning during his last outing, where an error and HR ended up leading to 4 ER over 7.2 IPs.  Of his 20 starts this year, he’s allowed 1 run or less in 9 of them, and 10 of his last 12 starts have been of the quality variety.

Galarraga toes the slab for your Tigers.  His road efforts have not done much to compensate for the team’s road problems in general, as he is 1-2 with a  7.78 ERA away from Comerica.  On the bright side, Galarraga is good enough to throw a complete game, and he’s never faced the Red Sox.  We’ve seen him range from brilliant to average, but on a good night, we all know he can beat anyone.

There may be some fresh faces in the Tigers lineup tonight.  Jeff Frazier was called up from Triple-A.  He hasn’t had much mention around here, but he was leading the International League in doubles, total bases and XBH, and second in HRs.  I’m also expecting Peralta to be in the lineup today, batting 6th since that is where he batted in Cle, who was happy to see him go.  Actually, I’d love to see him 5th to give the pitchers a different look when they IBB Cabrera, but who knows with Ol’ Smokey.  I am anxious to see this lineup and will post it ASAP if someone doesn’t beat me to it.

A few questionable moves in the AL Central today, as Edwin Jackson was dealt to the White Sox today (I guess they still see his 2009 numbers, and not his 2010 5.16 NL ERA) and Minnesota added Matt Capps for Wilson Ramos.  From what little I saw of him, I’m happy to see Ramos dealt out of the division.  Unfortunately, the only rumor involving the Tigers concerns Mike Lowell. (Are the Yankees really gonna get Berkman?)

The guys at BP argue that CWS may be using Jackson as a piece for Adam Dunn, so stay tuned.  (Link – subscription required.)

(edit)

Lineup posted:

Jackson cf
Rhymes 2b
Damon lf
Cabrera 1B
Raburn rf
Peralta 3b
Frazier dh
Laird c
Worth ss

2010 Season, Game Post

Game 2010.100: Tigers at Rays

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The Tigers attempt to go for their first win in my posting history.  A no hitter and a great game from the otherwise average James Shields are tough acts to surpass.  I’ve got a good feeling that it goes our way tonight.

Eddie Bonine takes on Jeff Niemann.  Bonine has been great out of the pen this year, posting a 4-0 record, 2.72 ERA and 1.26 whip, but his longest outing has been 4 innings.  He’s got plenty of starting experience (21 last year, 4 in the bigs and 17 with Toledo), so let’s hope he’s up to the task.

Niemann has been a stud for Tampa this year, posting an 8-3 record with a 2.95 ERA, 94 Ks in 128.1 IPs, and a 1.13 WHIP.

Cabrera has been a monster as of late, batting .421 with 10 RBIs in his last 10 games.  The rest of the team, not so good.

(edit, thanks to Mr. X)

Jackson has been HOT. He has 13 hits in the past 7 days. His only hitless game since the AS break was in that no hitter.

Damon has been hitting well also. .368 AVG, with a .455 OBP, in the past 7 days.

2010 Season, Game Post

Game 2010.099: Tigers at Rays

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Well, the Tigers go for their first hit since I took over responsibility for the game threads.

Tonight’s contest features JV versus James Shields.  James Shields has not been good as of late.  In his last 10 starts he’s allowed at least 3 runs in every start, and has only reached the seventh three times with a cool 5.61 ERA and 1.52 WHIP.  Let’s hope that we earn a few more of the “Hs” from that equation.  The Rays game day notes mention that Shields’ 9 losses are T-5th in the AL, “two off the league lead.”  There’s some optimism for you.

On the other hand, a few of the Tigers hitters he’ll face are still figuring out how to get to the ballpark, so it should make for an interesting game.  It was all doom and gloom in Motown this morning, but what do you expect when you get no-no’d by Matt Garza.  JV is 7-1 in his last 9 starts.  Checking the opposing starters over the next five days (Niemann, Price, Lester, Matsuzaka, Buchholz), there is little margin for error in JVs performance tonight.

2010 Season, Game Post

Game 2010.098: Tigers at Rays

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My sincerest thanks to billfer for entrusting me with the task of guarding the island.

Our Tigers take their 16-29 road record and one game win streak to the Trop.  Scherzer has been brilliant in July thus far posting a 3-1 record with a 2.00 ERA and 25 Ks in 27 IP.  Upon further inspection, did you know that Scherzer has 100 Ks in 105.2 IPs?

We all know that Valverde will be unavailable, so let’s get to Garza early and often.  Tigers have had some success against Tampa as of late, going 8-3 since September of ’08, and are 10-4 overall versus the East this year.

2010 Season, Site News

Stepping aside

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July 17th marked the 9th anniversary for this little old website. It has been a huge part of my life for nearly a decade which is what makes any decision to step away both a liberating and heartbreaking exercise.

I started to have these pangs in the offseason, and took some time away from the blog to sort things out. When the season started I gave it my all, but in the last couple months there just hasn’t been any passion on my part to go through the daily grind of maintaining the site on a regular basis.

I’ve been pressed for time lately, but I’ve been pressed for time before. I just always chose to make time for the blog in the past, but the energy just isn’t there anymore. My labor of love became purely labor and that is my primary reason for largely stepping aside. The first iteration of this post was titled “The End” and had me shutting down the site completely. I can’t bring myself to do it though so we’ll call it a semi-retirement. I will likely still post things on occasion, but it will be on my schedule and on topics that I want to explore. I’m not going to be beholden to the Tigers schedule or the baseball news cycle.

The future of the site is undetermined at this point, but it isn’t going away. “Kevin in Dallas” is going to start posting game threads for the time being. I greatly appreciate his willingness to step up and keep the community together. Beyond that we’ll play it by ear as I don’t want to over promise anything and certainly don’t want to speak for Kevin.

It has been a great ride and I’m thankful for so much. I’m proud of what this humble little website became and it has served as a tremendous growth experience for me. Over the years I think my analysis skills improved, my data mining skills developed, I learned about web development and servers and php and mysql and css and it even led to a web job.

Along the way I hope that I helped to advance the notion that a blog could be a credible source of information and analysis, and that I helped in  some small way to dispel the notion that bloggers are guys working out of their parents basement. I tried to do this with a focus on being right, responsible, and respectful. I think I did okay on this front.

I had opportunities to write for real books. I had the chance to go in the Fox Sports production truck and to see batting practice from the field. I’ve been interviewed as a Tigers expert. I mingled with Hall of Famers at The Henry Ford, interviewed a Michigan treasure, and got to connect with so many class individuals associated with the Tigers organization. Not bad for a guy who started a website on a whim with no knowledge of web development.

Most importantly I had the opportunity through DTW to meet so many wonderful online friends. Whether it is my fellow Tigers bloggers and DIBS members, or other long time bloggers like Geoff Young or Seth Stohs, or those of you who took the time to comment or email, thanks so much for making this a fulfilling experience.

Thanks to all of you who came here on a regular basis. Thank you to those who donated money. Thank you to those who donated their time. I’m flattered and humbled that you made the site a part of your lives as well.

Thank you to Roger DeWitt and Wendy Smith who were responsible for so many of the pictures that appeared on this site, royalty free.

Thanks to everyone who told their friends about the site and invited them aboard.  Thanks to all the bloggers and writers who have linked to my site or posts over the years.

Thanks to the Tigers organization who always treated me with respect and let me interview the CEO, President, and GM back when blog was still a dirty word.

Thanks to everyone who passed me information so that I could look smart a time or two.

Thank you to Dan Dickerson, Rod Allen, Curtis Granderson, Adam Wilk, James Robbins, Dave Dombrowski, and Ernie Harwell who were so gracious with their time.

Thank you to the mainstream media folks who helped promote the site. You helped make it relevant and credible.

Finally, thank you to Mrs. Billfer and the kids for all of your patience while “daddy needed to work on his dot com.” I love you guys.

2010 Season, Injuries

Some thoughts on the Ordonez situation

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The news of Magglio Ordonez’s prolonged absence is certainly devastating on a number of fronts and only compounded by the loss of Carlos Guillen. Already without Brandon Inge for at least a month the Tigers lost a third of their starting lineup in the last week. It changes the outlook for the trade deadline, and may very well change the look of the 2011 team. It also likely puts a significant dent in Miguel Cabrera’s chances for a triple crown.

Ordonez and Guillen will be replaced on the roster with Wil Rhymes and Jeff Larish while Don Kelly, Ryan Raburn, and Ramon Santiago see increased roles. The lineup is more Toledo than Detroit at this point which is tough on a team that already has heavily reliant on rookies. There is only so much depth.

Buyer of Sellers

The Tigers had some holes to fill, be it starting pitching, a lefty reliever, and a little more consistency and offensive pop at both shortstop and catcher. Filling 1-2 of those holes would likely have kept the Tigers in the race deep into September without dramatically impacting the future fortunes of the team.

However the Tigers holes have doubled, and in a hard to replace way. I still think Scott Sizemore can hit at the big league level and he could slide into Guillen’s spot. The loss of Ordonez though is just too much for this team to overcome given the question marks at other positions. With playoff odds that were essentially split with 3 teams already, the Tigers chances of the postseason just got much longer and it may make sense for the Tigers to flip the switch from buyers to sellers.

The Option

One of the biggest stories last year was whether or not the Tigers should cut Ordonez to avoid his option vesting. They didn’t and the reaped the benefits of his performance this year (and the burden of his paycheck). There is a $15 million option for next season that now will not automatically vest. The Tigers may have $15 million additional to spend next year, or they may pick it up (which would be an overpayment), or perhaps decline the option and sign Ordonez to a more reasonable 2 year deal.

The business move is of course to decline the option. We’ll see if Mike Ilitch feels the same way though, especially given the fact that Ordonez broke the ankle hustling on a play in a game in which maybe he shouldn’t have even been playing.

The decision to send him home

I don’t think you can blame Gene Lamont for sending Ordonez home. It was just a bad situation. I’m not even sure that he broke it on the slide. Given the way he was running I don’t know that he would have been able to put on the brakes at third base anyways without damaging the ankle. It was unfortunate, but not a bad decision.

Cabrera and the triple crown

One of several real bright spots this season was Miguel Cabrera’s pursuit of the Triple Crown. The odds were long on this one as well just because of the shear difficulty of the feat. Ordonez and his .378 OBP will no longer be in front of Cabrera meaning fewer opportunities for RBI and more opportunities for teams to pitch around Cabrera.

2010 Season, Minors, Roster Management

Robbie Weinhardt gets the call

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We here at Detroit Tigers Weblog have long been supporters of Robbie Weinhardt, so we’re thrilled to see him get his promotion to the big club. Armando Galarraga was optioned down to make room. The team doesn’t need a 5th starter before the All Star break, but they do need relief help after Andrew Oliver’s short outing on Monday and the extra inning affair Tuesday night.

Weinhardt was one of the last cuts of the camp, and seemed poised to slide into a bullpen slot when one opened up. But a remarkably stable and effective bullpen kept him in Toledo where he only walked 4 batters in 27.1 innings. Unfortunately Weinhardt suffered an arm injury at about the same time the Toledo-Detroit shuttle heated up, delaying his promotion.

Weinhardt was the 10th selection in the 2008 reliever draft. He was selected after Cody Satterwhite, Scott Green, and Brett Jacobson but has outperformed them all. For Lakeland in his first season he fanned 11.2 per 9 while only walking 2.8. He continued to progress up the chain with stellar strike out numbers (9.5/9 for his minor league career) and earned a spot as a Tigers AFL representative where he led the league in strikeouts last fall despite being a reliever. Also worth noting is the fact that Weinhardt has allowed just 3 homers in 135 professional innings.

His promotion at this point in time though is about effective roster utilization and it remains to be seen how long he’ll stick with the club beyond the All Star break. With a big series against the Twins coming up though he certainly has a chance to make an impression.

2010 Season, Game Post

Joel Zumaya suffers traumatic injury – Olecranon Fracture

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On Joel Zumaya’s 14th pitch of the night, he threw a 99mph fastball that Delmon Young fouled off. Zumaya however ended up in a crumpled heap behind the mound. His arm was twitching and his face was a mix of excruciating pain and terror. We’ve seen Zumaya improbably bounce back from a variety of injuries, but with each successive one you can’t help but fear that he’s thrown his last pitch.

A preliminary diagnosis will likely be available shortly, as will a roster move. I’ll update things here as we know more. Ryan Perry has only made one rehab appearance for Toledo. Robbie Weinhardt made his 3rd rehab appearance in Connecticut tonight. Daniel Schlereth has been erratic with 14 K’s and 8 BB’s in his last 10 innings. Casey Fien and Jay Sborz may also be in the mix.

UPDATE: Well, not really an update. Zumaya will get an MRI in the morning and Jim Leyland isn’t speculating on the injury.

UPDATE 2: Zumaya has officially been placed on the DL with a vaguely defined elbow injury (MRI results still pending I suppose). Casey Fien gets the call and will be added to the 40 man roster.

UPDATE Ourch: It is a fractured olecranon. Bend your arm and feel the bony part of your elbow, aka the funny bone. That’s the olecranon. The fracture is nondisplaced and the internet says that a nondisplaced fracture isn’t necessarily treated with surgery. Usually it is fractured due to a blow though and not soft tissue ripping it off.

Uncategorized

Beyond Batting Average

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My friend and fellow Tigers blogger Lee Panas published a book this past offseason called Beyond Batting Average. It is a must read for anyone interested in learning more about the advanced statistics used in in baseball today.

I’ve known Lee virtually for a number of years through blogs and forums and in addition to being an excellent analyst, he is very adept at explaining complex concepts in an easy to digest manner. Beyond Batting Average is an extension of the great work that Lee has been doing online for years.

Panas doesn’t just explain the stats, but he also tells you why you should care about them.

In case you think I’m just touting something for a friend, I’m not alone in this assessment. Saber-atti like Tom Tango and Dave Gassko endorse the book. Tigers play-by-play man Dan Dickerson takes it with him as a reference tome on road trips.

Beyond Batting Average is available in paperback form and it is also available for download from Lulu.

2010 Season, Defense

The Tigers are a good defensive team

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I hear it all the time, people citing fielding percentage and errors as an example of Detroit’s ineptitude with the glove. They have the 9th most errors in MLB and only two AL teams have more (the Indians and the Angels) and their fielding percentage ranks 23rd overall. Those numbers aren’t great, but what is more troubling is the fact that so many are still using those stats when there are so many betters ones easily available.

Play by play data that tracks hit direction and type of hit has been available for a number of years. This is data that has been collected by video scouts and stringers that aren’t making a nebulous judgment about whether or not the play should have been made. They are just looking at direction and how hard it was hit and whether or not the play was made. The data then tells the story of whether or not the play should have been made by comparing the play to all the other plays and how often they get made.

So let’s look at some of this objective data and see what the objective data says about the Tigers fielding. Baseball Prospectus lists the Tigers team defensive efficiency ratio (DER simply looks at all the balls in play and figures out the rate at which they were converted to outs) as 16th in MLB. On this measure they come up middle of the pack.

Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) has the Tigers at 10th in MLB at 13 runs better than a typical team. A similar system called +/- has the Tigers at 11th in MLB at 25 defensive runs saved.

Revised Zone Rating is similar to fielding percentage in that it expresses things as a rate or percentage, but it uses a much more logical denominator. Instead of using the denominator as the number of balls that a fielder touches, it uses the number of balls hit to a player’s zone. Therefore it isn’t rewarding the slow of foot for not even getting to balls. In RZR the Tigers are 6th in MLB.

While there is variation in the systems, I just presented 4 defensive stats that aren’t subjective. They weren’t manipulated by me to make the team look one way or the other. The worst of those 4 said the Tigers were middle of the pack. The other 3 said the Tigers were above average to good.

The only metric that says the team isn’t good with the leather is the one that is frought with the most problems in methodology. It is the one that is most subjective. The one that doesn’t measure an ability to get to balls. Concluding that the Tigers  are a bad team because of fielding percentage would be an error in judgment.