2011 Season, Game Post, Playoffs

Game 2011 Playoffs.1: Tigers at Yankees

103 Comments

(if any real artists out there would like to make a real graphic, please let me know.  but the ALDS choice of color didn’t give me much to work with)

They’re here!  The Playoffs are here!  What a welcome guest.  Honestly, I’m not so sure that I’ve recovered yet from the excitement of Wednesday night, perhaps the greatest regular season night in MLB history.  And as incredible as the Wild Card finishes were, Wed night was especially dramatic for us in Detroit and Arlington, as home field advantage hung in the balance.  Detroit has played the best ball in the Majors for over a month now, and while everyone says they were beating up on a weak AL Central, let’s not forget that a big reason why Cle and Chi ended up <.500 was because they lost so many games to the Tigers in the last month.

This marks the 13th playoff appearance for the Tigers, their first division title since Alan Trammell was robbed of the MVP in ’87 and the 6th trip to the playoffs for Ol’ Smokey in 20 years of smoking from the top step.  12 of the 25 players on the roster had their first sip of champagne, and speaking of roster, it includes Penny, Perry, PSantos, Kelly, Dirks and Inge.  Guillen, Pauley and Below, not so much.  I don’t want to inject too much criticism in this joyous post, but am I the only one who has watched Perry struggle with everything other than his tattoo artist this year?

Verlander is a career 4-3 with a 3.97 ERA against the Yankees in 10 starts.  The Yankees are great at working the count, fouling off pitches and drawing walks, and this has led to an average start of 5 2/3 IPs against the Yankees.  I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but that has to be one of the lowest versus any team for JV.  First pitch strikes tonight will be crucial.

JV is going to have his hands full with a Yankees lineup that features up to six lefties, with three of them recent MVP candidates (not to mention one from the right side).  In my mind, the key will be keeping Jeter off base in front of Granderson/Cano/Teixiera/Rodriguez.  Those guys are going to get a few hits, let’s just make sure that they are not scooting Jeter (9-25, .360 career) around the bases in front of them.  The Yankees 2-5 hitters are a career 12-67 off of JV.

Cabrera simply dominates CC as Miggy has a 1.591 OPS in 16 plate appearances.  Betemit has had success with 3 hits in 5 ABs, and Santiago is 7-24, but everyone else has been pedestrian…at best.

Other notes that I couldn’t shoehorn in above
– Would you hire Terry Francona right now?  I might.
– Fister is the September AL pitcher of the month.  5-0 with a .53 ERA will do that for you.

103 thoughts on “Game 2011 Playoffs.1: Tigers at Yankees”

  1. Tigers line-up… (no Betemit, no Santiago)…

    Austin Jackson, CF
    Magglio Ordonez, RF
    Delmon Young, LF
    Miguel Cabrera, 1B
    Victor Martinez, DH
    Alex Avila, C
    Ryan Raburn, 2B
    Jhonny Peralta, SS
    Brandon Inge, 3B

    P: Justin Verlander

    1. Hopefully they are pulling Inge out and Pushing Betemit in. I like Inge but he needs to step up here.

      Lets GO Tigers

  5. the yankees don’t need any help scoring runs… and the Tigers just gave them one

    and the rain begins to fall

  7. minus the Young HR, not the ideal start for the Tigers – Verlander 25 pitches, O hits, 1 run and rain (hopefully not creating a “delay”)

  9. Damn! I don’t like the tone set in game right now. JV looks like he is struggling for command. Yanks are good at grinding out ABs. CC is looking very sharp… And then rain…

    1. Yeah it will give us more time to smack Leyland in the face and give him a wake up call that he still needs to do his job by instructing his players to pursue lead runners. This stuff was supposed to be covered in training camp, and the fact that Cabrera and Inge both processed the risk to be too high to take the closer play on the more valuable runner versus the sure out is an indication that Leyland isn’t stressing enough the importance of prioritizing lead runners. This has been a problem every year for us, and the culture needs to be changed. Maybe somebody will explain this to Jim during the break.

      1. Actually, Leyland is prioritizing getting an out, as it should be. Cabrera is a fine 1B. He knows what he’s doing.

        1. That’s bad baseball logic. “Outs” are not that valuable, when compared to lead runners OR runs. They are proportionately weaker in value and it’s always better to gamble to prevent a run or lead runner versus taking a single out unless it’s the final out of an inning. The only exception is when the score is very specific and only the upcoming batter is relevant, i.e. if you are up by 3 runs in the ninth and there are 2 runners on board, then in that case the out would be more valuable than the runner, but definitely not in other circumstances such as what we were looking at. You have it backwards on statistical value of those items/situations.

          1. Actually TSE, you are wrong again. If Cabrera gets the lead runner, he only reduces the Run Expectancy by ~.25 runs (1 & 3 1 out vs. 2 & 3 1 out). If Cabrera does not get the lead runner, the Run Expectancy jumps from 1.2 to 2.35 (2 & 3 1 out vs. 1, 2, & 3 0 out) (In all instances I rounded in your favor). Thus he reduced RE by .9 runs. Cabrera absolutely made the right decision in light of the circumstances.

            I would still like to see the statistical values you reference.

            1. You have to factor his odds of getting the runner out, it’s not 50/50 it was a healthy near certainty, it was an easy throw with plenty of time.

              1. Now you’re assuming it was a “healthy near certainty.” These assumptions aren’t like you TSE. Though you are usually a contrarian on here, I like your posts b/c they generally make sense (whether I agree with them or not). But on this on, I’m just not seeing it.

  11. This break is going to hurt Verlander, but maybe it can help the team by giving them a chance to calm down and remember this is the same game they’ve been playing all year.

  12. Shouldn’t they be showing old This Week In Baseball, or highlights of the 68
    World Series, or bloopers, or something?

  13. I see this rain delay hurting the Yanks more than the Tigs. CC may be out for the game. If not — because JOe G feels that he has to use him, odds are good he won’t have the same sharpness. If JV is out too, then it will be Brutus in for JV and I have this odd feeling that he will show up for us tonight. We’ll see. Good to see the Wings and Leafs play anyway if there has to be a delay in this ball game.

    GO TIGERS!

    1. I presume you mean Bad Penny…

      That’s will be torture to watch against this lineup.

      It’s been an hour. I’m a little concerned…. any updates?

      1. TBS is talking as if the game might be called. Reporting that the umps, managers, and gms are talking about when the game can be replayed. but who really knows. I still say this delay hurts the Yanks more than us.

        1. If one cannot decide which team has a natural advantage and it is assumed to be a neutral effect for both teams, then the Yanks will have the added benefit of selling more concessions and thus having more revenues to use for future seasons and that value is the tiebreaker. CC also has done more of his pitching, so the risk to have a pitcher sitting would have more exposure to Verlander since CC is closer to not being needed for the rest of the game. To me it seems like the Yanks have the clear advantage for those 2 tiny reasons.

          ESPECIALLY considering they are the favored team, and having Verlander serving as an assumptive winner is Detroit’s only real shot to match up against the Yanks. Anything that throws a wrench of any kind into the Verlander equation is good for the Yanks since the Tigers have to “bank” on him moreso than the Yanks have to bank on CC since they have more alternative players of higher value than us.

          1. UPDATE:

            And now it looks like we will get only 1 game out of Verlander this series, so the benefit is even bigger to the Yankees that I previously thought an hour ago. Not good. I’d rather gamble on Verlander’s health and make him pitch two games since Texas and TB are less scarier opponents especially considering if we draw TB we can also get a home advantage on top of the weaker opponent. It’s do or die time, and we NEED Verlander to pitch 2 games!

          2. I see five huge assumptions which make your conclusion entirely illogical. I’m shocked that you missed all of these.

            1) You are assuming that the series will go five games.
            2) You are assuming that 3 games of concessions at Yankee stadium is > than 2 games of concessions at Comerica. Have you checked spending habits of customers at Comerica vs. those of Yankee stadium? How about concession prices?
            3) You are assuming that money to spend in the future has an effect on the current series. This one seems the most ridiculous of all of them. If I were to tell you today that Carlos Slim Helu was going to buy the Tigers on November 1st (so I’ve heard), that would not make the Tigers the favorite today.
            4) You are assuming that at some point in time, CC would not be needed for the rest of the game.
            5) You are assuming that Sabathia and JV average the same # of innings per start.

            1. Not assuming it will go 5 games, but it could, and that portion of the probability is a factor. It doesn’t matter how many games it goes, the principle that our ace pitcher can’t pitch in 40% of the games is guaranteed to go down, and that guaranteed slice is a chunk of our odds.

              2) It doesn’t matter which stadium gets more, the Yanks are the first seed and they get what they get instead of us getting the extra game. The dollars don’t have to be the same for the Yanks to have the extra pile of cash that should have been ours if we were the #1 seed.

              3) No i’m not, I’m complaining about the money because of the FUTURE value, it has nothing to do with the present season.

              4) CC isn’t relevant to what we are already losing. The Yanks don’t value CC as much as the Tigers value JV because they have more quality players than us to rely on, so we lose there, that’s the only point I’m making, it’s a deduction to our odds.

              5) No I’m not.

  14. hate to say it but this one may not get restarted any time soon tonight; if at all. Just checked NYC weather radar and the city is surrounded by heavy weather.

  18. Weird, they are continuing in 2nd inning tomorrow, instead of starting fresh. Do they not rain out and cancel games before 5 innings in the playoffs?

    1. as stated, its a new rule passed after ’08, they pick up any postponed game where it left off

  19. F’d-up way to start this series… i was really hoping the Tigers would ride some momentum into game 1 seeing as the yankees had been losing lately (yes, i know they were resting players) and they went extra innings two nights ago in Tampa.

    tomorrow’s forcast for NYC is 60% chance dropping to 40% tomorrow night, with temps around 52 degrees – which has to factor into who will be starting tommorow

  20. In some ways, I’m relieved. I didn’t like the way this game started. They looked nervous. Hopefully they can shake that off now that they’ve had a taste of it.

  21. Any word on whether or not JV will go tomorrow night? Maybe give him a “do over” and save him for game 3?

      1. Why is that? Seems like Verlander will only get to pitch 1/5 instead of 2/5 of the games in this series now?

        1. Because I like our chances with Fister and Scherzer, and assume that a game 5 won’t be necessary. If JV can’t start off the series with a good start, maybe he can close it out with one. Just trying to have a positive attitude about all of this.

  24. And it is Nova, Garcia and Sabathia in Games 1b, 2 and 3 for the Yankees.

    So Yankees are forced into using a 4 man rotation, and I suppose it would be Nova in a potential Game 5.

  25. I think this rainout is a blessing. JV looked like he would was going to have a rough night. He’s certainly due for a bad game. In a parallel universe, the night is dry and JV gets tagged for 7 runs before the 5th inning. In, perhaps, this universe tomorrow, Fister resumes the game and throws a gem.

  26. TSE, Cabrera didn’t throw to second because Granderson was in his way, and it wasn’t a safe play. Inge didn’t throw home because he didn’t catch it cleanly. Neither play was perfect but both players made the right choices after realizing circumstances made going after the lead runner too risky.

    1. Hi Andrew…well said. It took me about three replays to see the Inge was handcuffed. Otherwise he would of had Granderson pegged at home.

  27. maybe I’m paranoid, but did this dawn on anybody?: these morons in charge of the game just made the Tigers WASTE 3 outs – nobody’s gonna hit in a driving rain like that. we’ll see how the rest of this series goes…see if the umps give the Skankees all the close calls. it wouldn’t surprise me a bit; the Skanks are always the ‘darlings’ of baseball…….. 🙁

    1. I not sure it was deliberate, but yes. The Tigers will have to win this game with 24 at bats relative to the Yankees 27 at bats. It was absolutely unacceptable not putting the tarp down when the rain was coming down as hard as it was, especially given the rules where at bat counts.

      Look, bottom line is, we’re going to have to win this series at a disadvantage.

    2. I’ll take the wasted 3 outs. CC was looking tough. JV was struggling. The team seemed nervous and antious. Where the yanks, you might expect, see this as another day at the office. The Tigers should be more relaxed by now.

      Also, remember the 2006 ALDS. A rainout came and the momentum turned hard against the yanks. This time, that happens very early (let’s hope).

  28. It’s unfortunate, but I really think that it’s circumstantial. Had the same happened in Detroit, we would have been the beneficiary. We should have won one more game.

    What’s the forecast for tonight? If we can push this back, can JV throw 2 & 5 (assuming an off day)?

  29. It’s raining lightly in New York. What we don’t want to happen is another lengthy rain delay, burning Fister. Either we play this game with assurance that the weather will cooperate, or we don’t.

  30. I also worried that we were robbed by them not stopping the game earlier. Especially the last 2 batters didn’t have much chance to hit. But it easily could have worked out otherwise, and hurt the Yankees more. CC could have injured himself, walked people with bad control, or even given up hits if he had poor location. The game certainly should have been stopped earlier, but I don’t think it was a Yankees plot.

  31. A few non-tactical observations.

    What’s with the TBS tiny pitch count box?

    Rod and Mario must have spoiled me as these TBS announcers talk big on the Yankees.

    Why are there empty seats?

  34. Tiger pitching should be throwing 1st pitch strikes – seeing as the Yankees seem content to take a strike (before swingin) and step out of the box after every pitch… obviously they’re trying to throw off the Tiger pitcher’s rhythm… its a good strategy, but its kind of excrutiating to watch for a Tiger fan

  35. One good thing about tonight is that Fister can go deeper into the game.

  40. Come on Lamont. Sending Avila home with Granderson throwing in from shallow center???? Geez.

      1. a better jump on an obvious hit (Grandy was backing up to field it on a hop) and a even w/o a decent jump, a better slide would have worked

        1. I think you pointing to the fact that Grandy was backing up on it is evidence that it wasn’t an obvious hit.

          2. without trying to sound hyper-critical, but Avila had the best advantage of anyone besides Grandy, because he was standing at 2B.. its acedemic, there’s nothing Avila or anyone can do about it now

  44. a real Yankee fan would have caught Cano’s double…and it would have been a HR

    1. if that fan touches/catches it at the top of the fence – or the guy catches it with his hat, the umps would have called that a HR and not interference

      1. What I’m saying is that the ball bounced on top of the fence, then hit the fan, then back into play. If it doesn’t hit the fan, it’s clearly into the stands. B/c it happened so fast, the umps thought it came right back off of the wall.

    2. Not sure why you think that the ball hit the fan – they showed about 10 replays and I thought that it was pretty clear it didn’t hit him.

      1. Dan and Jim said they did. They noted that they have different replays. If you look closely enough, you’ll see the black jacket go up.

        1. I thought the jacket went up because he brought his beer into his chest. We are definitely fortunate that it wasn’t called a home run, though.

  46. Here in Canada, the game’s on Rogers Sportsnet. The broadcast are these TBS clowns, but sometimes they cut back to the studio during commercial breaks to hear from Gregg Zaun. He’s pretty good.

    Earlier he was giving a lot of credit to Inge for a great deke on Posada (rather than the TBS guys just saying it was bad baserunning).

    After this last play at the plate, he (unlike anybody else on TV) was wondering what the heck Lamont was doing sending him. Also differed with the TBS guys in saying Martin was perfectly positioned.

    1. If that were a speed guy who slides headfirst, I think it’s a run. But I’m not advocating that, too many injuries.

  52. Ok, maybe I’m in a bad mood with the Tigers wiped out here, but boy are these TBS announcers d-bags.

    2. Not as much as the Tigers’ mngmt team. They are the guys that put us in this position. We should be the #1 seed and have the 8-1 lead over the piss-ass Yankees team that has no chance of beating our elite squad. Those guys wouldn’t know what baseball was until we smacked them in the face with it if things were up to me.

  53. I’m coming out retirement just to say I am not like a reflagged Liberian tanker and commenting under the TSE banner.

    And that I miss Mr. X. I grew to love that sonofagun.

  54. The Tigers have looked tight since the first inning last night w/ defensive lapses and poor at bats — as if playing on the big stage has them a bit off their ususal game. This Nova guy has been throwing the ball all over the place but few of our guys have made him work. But we’ve seen this before in NY like in 2006 so there is no need to panic.

  55. I will throw this out there now…. Verlander should go tomorrow. He only pitched 25 pitches. If we have any shot at this series, we need our best stopper after this game. No offense against Scherzer, but our chances are better with him at pitcher friendly Comerica than they are at Yankee Stadium.

    Verlander vs Garcia… I like our chances going back to Comerica 1-1.

    Garcia vs Scherzer… I’m thinking a 11 – 8 game. You toss the coin.

    Of course we don’t know how many bull-pen session pitches Verlander spent in the belly of Yankee stadium last night keeping warm…

    Other than throwing a boat-load, I see no reason why we don’t march Verlander out there tomorrow afternoon.

    1. Well if he does not pitch in the next game and if he only pitches one more game this series, then I would rather him at least pitch in NY again. We have to win at least one game in NY anyhow. I’d rather try to win that game with JV.

    2. I’m sure JV would start today if he thought he was able. I think we need to trust Leyland and JV’s judgement on this one.

    1. Thanks cfdmd!….meanwhile we are waiting for the short-term (game 2) rise of our middle lineup hitters!

    1. The Lions – Tigers games being on at the same time is a major bummer. Lions are playing pretty poorly right now – they look out of sync just like the Vikings game, though Dallas is a much better team than MInnesota. They won’t concede a giant lead.

  58. After last night’s TBS call, I’m thinking of listening to Dan and Jim for game two. Calling Peralta Rayburn, too many fan shots when a play started, and gaga over the Yankees was too much for me. I wonder how synch the radio is with the TBS game?

    Go Tigers, Go Lions, Geaux Saints!

    PS: Hey Kevin…how much did Jerry soak you on parking at Cowboy Stadium?

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