Hot Stove

Hot Stove Talk, Part 3

9 Comments

I’m gonna get to the latest in A-Ram and others tomorrow (hopefully), but I wanted to put up a quick note about the Red Sox job.  Bobby Valentine beat out Gene Lamont, much to the chagrin of everyone reading this post, Paws, and the Tigers official scorer.

– Maicer Izturis?  So who is on the block?  Raburn or Kelly?  And what’s wrong with Ramon Santiago?

– Octavio Dotel to the pen?  I’m in.

– Mark Buehrle as the 5th…?  I just don’t think there is room for him, unless Porcello is about to be dealt.  Honestly, I don’t get the Buehrle talk.  DD wouldn’t Edwin Jackson Max Scherzer, would he?

– Carlos Guillen to the Marlins?  Seems like a decent fit.

9 thoughts on “Hot Stove Talk, Part 3”

      1. really? The going rate for 1 WAR is about $5 million per year. Signing Ramon for 2 years and 4 million means you are paying for about 0.4 Wins Above Replacement per year for 2 seasons. That’s AAA level production. In the last 2 seasons, he has produced 3.4 WAR total per fangraphs. 2 million per year is not overpaying.

        1. Well if you believe that all contracts can be defined as good or bad by simply looking at WAR and the going rate for WAR points, then you are absolutely correct. My interpretation of statistical logic as it relates to baseball players differs from that type of a WAR analysis and I use different sets of criteria and look at a lot of other intertwined variables and aspects to come to my conclusion. Also, the “going rate” for WAR is too high because I believe a highly intelligent purpose should be able to obtain “x” amount of WAR for far less than that “going rate”. Also, my system of evaluating the worth of a player I believe is more reliable than a simplistic WAR analysis which just doesn’t cut it. Even the dumbass GMs that run all of these teams know better than to just look at WAR and calculate a specific dollar for WAR points. I’m firmly committed to my stance that he’s not worth $2M per year, and I respectfully disagree that we didn’t overpay.

          1. “person” not purpose, sorry had a phone call while i was typing and i got sloppy in my post. i dont take posting on boards that don’t allow you to edit your comments very seriously. ugghh lol

          2. so you have your own system of valuing free agents that is more accurate than the already insanely accurate forecasting that expected WAR and $/win that teams, agents, and sabermetrics inclined folks use?

            Have you bothered publishing it? I’m sure you could make millions if you were actually better.

            $2 million per year for a replacement level middle infielder that plays good defense is at worst market value and much more likely a bargain.

            So yes, I respectfully disagree with your assessment and will defer to everyone else that thinks it’s a good deal.

            http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/possible-ripples-from-ramon-santiagos-return/

  2. Kevin, we are one starter short, that’s why the Buerhle talk. And he would be No. 3, not No. 5. Turner is NOT ready, and when (if) he is, then perhaps a Porcello (No. 5) trade – probably not til ’13 anyway. A Verlander, Fister, Buerhle, Scherzer, Porcello rotation looks pretty good to me in the meantime.

    Besides Izturis, it has been rumored the Tigers are looking at Coco Crisp. Could it be that the leadoff spot is suddenly becoming an important consideration?

    Kelly on the block? – funny!

    1. I agree that there’s a spot for Buehrle, that’s just not where I’d like to spend $15M based on our other needs. But in a perfect world, let’s get him AND fill our other needs.

      1. If Illitch can ‘smell’ a championship this year, I think he will spend the money. Personally, I would rather start the season with a rock solid rotation and fill in offensive needs later (if it comes to that). Pitching tends to dominate more in the early part of the season anyway when the weather is cooler and the batters haven’t caught up yet; last year is a great example, when offense was down in both leagues. True, the Tigers are working with a deficit at second and third, but I think they can fill at least one of those with a trade – we have Young and quite a few pitching prospects (not named Turner) to dangle as bait. DD likes to get things done early, so perhaps this week will reveal the front office intentions. Cespedes is also an interesting possibility, but nothing is going to happen there until he becomes a free agent in six weeks or so.

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