This afternoon the Tigers try to bounce back from their first home loss of the season in the rubber game of the series with the Royals.  The Royals send Luke Hochevar to the mound to oppose Rick Porcello

Speaking of Porcello, I happened to overhear one of those baseball science kind of conversations about the effect of temperature on pitching, in which someone was arguing more or less that cold weather is good for curve-ball pitchers, and hot weather is good for fastball pitchers (cold air is more dense than hot and therefore offers more resistance, which ball movement relies on).

So naturally I thought, well Porcello should have a good game tomorrow.  Then I saw the weather forecast for Detroit:  high of 76.  So much for that.

But since game time temperatures are recorded in the box scores, just for fun why not go ahead and see how Porcello did at varying temperatures last season.

Rick Porcello ERA 2010 by game time temperature:

4.14 – sub 70

5.43 – 70 – 79

5.96 – 80 plus

This is somewhat affected no doubt by his progression throughout the season: he struggled for a while, and came on strong at the end of the season, when it was naturally colder. But that begs the question whether or not that improvement was aided by the temperature.  In August he had 6 starts; the first 4 at 82, 80, 83, and 87 degrees, the last 2 at 74 and 75.  The first 4 he had a 6.95 ERA, the last 2 a 3.21 ERA, and he continued to improve into September.

Is it possible his improvement was aided in some way by the weather? Did he get better, or did it just get colder, or was it both? I wouldn’t try to form an opinion either way based on this little bit of data, but it does add an element that I hadn’t thought of before.

Then again, it’s possible that ALL pitchers do better the colder it is, and that’s all that’s showing up here, not anything specific to Porcello,  or to pitchers who rely on a sinker.

And that one is a little deep for the moment, so instead let’s look at today’s no-Magglio lineup (ankle soreness):

1. Austin Jackson CF
2. Will Rhymes 2B
3. Brennan Boesch RF
4. Miguel Cabrera 1B
5. Victor Martinez DH
6. Ryan Raburn LF
7. Jhonny Peralta SS
8. Alex Avila C
9. Brandon Inge 3B

Today the Tigers look to continue unbeaten at home, as Phil Coke gets his 1st start of the season (and only 2nd of his career) against Bruce Chen and the Royals.  Whether or not Coke adjusts to the starting role will likely have a big effect on how this season plays out, and whether or not any of the young prospects get called up during the season.

Bruce Chen has a mixed history against the Tigers.  Last season he was 2-1 with a 6.30 ERA (with 12 walks in 20 innings).  Luckily Miguel Cabrera is fine after his run-in yesterday with the tarp:  in 14 career ABs vs Chen he is hitting .571 with 3 HRs.  Chen will find some relief further down in the order–Inge has 1 hit in 21 career ABs vs Chen.

Expect the Tigers to take a patient approach at the plate with Chen.  In fact, the Tigers have been uncharacteristically patient this season as a whole, and surprisingly lead the league in Pitches per Plate Appearance with 4.13 led by Wee Willie Rhymes (4.69).

Today marks the first appearance of The Ghost in the starting lineup:

1. Austin Jackson CF
2. Will Rymes, 2B
3. Maggio Ordonez DH
4. Miguel Cabrera 1B
5. Victor Martinez C
6. Ryan Raburn LF
7. Jhonny Peralta SS
8. Brandon Inge 3B
9. Casper Wells RF

It’s Homecoming time in the D, as the Tigers bring baseball back to Detroit for the 2011 Home Opener.

The weather is chllin’ (42 and rainy with 2 hours until the 3:05 start, but the rain is expected to go away) but the fans are grillin’ and I don’t expect any of that Yankee stadium empty seat malaise, because that’s just not how Detroit opening day goes.

The Home opener is simply bigger in Detroit,  according to Lynn Henning

Brandon Inge agrees, and says his bit on the subject in the Metro Times

On-field festivities include

• Raising of a Sparky Anderson flag and retirement of his number 11 (the players have also been wearing patch honoring him).
• A moment of silence for Bill Lajoie, Steve Boros, Cecil Kaiser, Woodie Fryman and the victims of the Japan tsunami.
• A military A-10 flyover, courtesy of the 107th Fighter Squadron, 127th Wing of the Michigan Air National Guard
• Game ball presentation by Master Sergeant Michael Lionberger of the US Air Force
• 7th inning stretch performance of God Bless America by Scott Stapp of Creed
• and rally towels for the first 10,000 fans!

The National Anthem will be performed by Committed, the winners of NBC’s The Sing-Off (yes, but can they measure up to Amber Grand?)

The ceremonial first pitch will be delivered by a young person from the C.A.T.C.H. organization, along with “very special guests.” (Ooh, I’ll guess we’ll just have to watch to find out!).

For those lucky enough to be enjoying all of the festivities in person, you might want to check out the new Food Network signature steak sandwiches (not to be confused with Sgt. Lionberger), which will be available in only 8 ballparks, and Comerica is one!

For those who can’t make opening day in person, you can follow the party online at the Detroit News, where they have a live fan blog with lots of photos and tweets and whatnot (I just saw the tarp coming off the field, yea!)

There are many ways to celebrate opening day–1,000 retirees at Fox Run retirement community in Novi will do a pre-game reading to honor Ernie Harwell.

How are you celebrating?  Please post and tell us, especially if you are lucky enough to be there at Comerica.  Go Tigers!

* * *

The Tigers will face the 4-2 Kansas City Royals, the youngest, cheapest, and apparently fastest team in the league (they lead the majors with 14 stolen bases).  And it’s not all small ball; they still have the dreaded Billy Butler.  A well-rested Max Scherzer (he left Baltimore a day early) will try to keep the runnin’ Royals off the basepaths–if not, expect them to test Alex Avila, who has had some early season struggles behind the plate. Not to worry too much though:  Mario and Rod pronounced yesterday that Scherzer will have 9 strikeouts today.

The home opening lineup:

1. Austin Jackson, CF
2. Will Rhymes, 2B
3. Magglio Ordonez, RB
4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
5. Victor Martinez, DH
6. Brennan Boesch, LF
7. Jhonny Peralta, SS
8. Alex Avila, C
9. Brandon Inge, 3B

The boys look to take a series and get to .500 today.

Chris Tillman was pretty darn good in his first outing, throwing 6 innings of no-hit ball against the Rays, but was pulled after 101 pitches.  Tillman is young and promising, but his first two years in the bigs have been disappointing, at best.  In 124 2/3 IPs, all as a starter. Tillman has a career 5.34 ERA and 1.49 WHIP.  In three career starts against the Tigers, Tillman is 1-0 with a 3.20 ERA, averaging just over 6 innings per start.  This includes a 7 inning, 3 hit, 1 ER, 7 K performance in game 160 last year.

Brad Penny, well, he really can’t do any worse.  On the field, that is.  He seems to be doing okay off the field.  Though it would have been nice for that article to come out after his start.  The best part about the article is his wife is planning on having their wedding in “October or November.” Penny sure did his part last week to keep that timeline in play.

Ryan Perry went on the DL today, it’s retroactive to April 5th.  He has an “infected eye.”  Can you really get pink eye from a pillow as discussed in Knocked Up?  Robbie Weinhardt gets the call.

Tonight’s Lineup includes Don Kelly, Ramon Santiago and both Raburn and Boesch.

1. AJax – CF
2. Rhymes – 2B
3. Boesch – LF
4. Cabrera – 1B
5. Martinez – C
6. Kelly – 3B
7. Raburn – LF
8. Avila – C
9. Santiago – SS

JV looks to get to 1-0 on the season and continue his domination over the Orioles.  Over the last five years and covering 8 starts, Verlander is 5-0 with a 2.52 ERA and 1.10 WHIP against the birds.  JV had a ND in the opener against the Yankees.  Other than his 4 walks and 1 bad pitch to Teixeira, JV pitched pretty well.  Let’s hope he can keep his pitch count down and get into the 7th today.

Brad Bergesen starts for the O’s after their ace Jeremy Guthrie was hospitalized on Monday with pneumonia.  Bergesen’s stats look pretty average over his career –  4.33 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, but his FIP (4.70) and K/9 (4.48), suggest that he’s not all that great.  But I also thought the same about Jake Arrieta.  In his career, Bergesen has decent numbers against the Tigers – 1-2, 3.86 ERA, and a 1.19 WHIP.

Fun fact of the day – AJax led the majors in Ks entering Tuesday (8), but he also leads the majors in pitchers per at bat.

Tonight’s Lineup:

1. AJax – CF
2. Rhymes – 2B
3. Maggs – RF
4. Cabrera – 1B
5. Martinez – DH
6. Boesch – LF
7. Peralta – SS
8. Avila – C
9. Inge – 3B

Your Tigers look to get to .500 today, else it’s 1-3 with a dreaded off day tomorrow.

Porcello toes the slab for the Tigers.  Porcello was roughed up a little in spring training, allowing 29 hits and walking 11 in 27.2 innings for a 1.45 WHIP.  He struck out 17 during that time.

Jake Arrieta goes for the O’s today, after making the opening day roster for the first time.  Arrieta has four real pitches, throwing his curve, slider or change roughly 40% of the time, distributed almost equally.  Arrieta started 18 games for the O’s last year, posting a 6-6 record with a 4.66 ERA in 100.1 IPs.  He had a 1.53 WHIP and struck out 52.  Tigers should have their chances today.

The Orioles look about as good as you can after opening weekend, sweeping the Rays and outscoring them 12-3.  But I think their 3 game win streak ends today.

Fortunately, Luke Scott is not in today’s Orioles lineup.  Tigers look like this:

1 Jackson CF
2 Rhymes 2B
3 Ordonez RF
4 Cabrera 1B
5 Martinez C
6 Boesch LF
7 Peralta SS
8 Avila C
9 Inge 3b

Today is the styrofoam game of the three-game series as Max Scherzer eyes Detroit’s first victory and the Tigers try to keep the brooms in the closet.  The Tigers have yet to win a game; then again, neither have the Twins, so there.

Big Don Kelly will be filling in for Magglio Ordonez in right field, although strangely enough, not batting in his spot in the lineup.  That honor goes to Brennan Boesch, who yesterday became the first Tiger to strike out with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs. Ordonez was taken out of yesterday’s game with soreness in his surgically-repaired ankle, but it was cold yesterday and this sort of thing is to be expected and Leyland was planning to give him a day off soon anyway and there is nothing to worry about, really there isn’t.

Today will also see the 2011 debut of Victor Martinez behind the plate.

The Tigers face Phil Hughes, whom the Yankees drafted with a compensatory pick awarded to them when they lost Andy Pettitte to the Astros, before they got him back again.  Hughes supposedly is featuring a new “slider-cutter” pitch which is different from his slider or his cutter.  Let us know if you see one.  Hughes also was the winning pitcher the last time the Yankees swept a series from Detroit.

Fun fact:  Miguel Cabrera and Austin Jackson are tied for the team lead in leading off innings (5).  At some point do they consider moving Cabrera up to the 3rd spot in the lineup?

Today’s sweep-busting Tiger lineup:

1 Jackson, CF

2 Santiago, 2B

3 Boesch, DH

4 Cabrera, 1B

5 Martinez, C

6 Raburn, LF

7 Kelly, RF

8 Peralta, SS

9 Inge, 3B

Tigers looks to get to .500 today with Brad Penny on the mound versus AJ Burnett.  I believe that Penny is going to be a critical factor in the Tigers’ hopes to compete this year, so I’m really looking forward to this game.  Penny had a decent spring with a 1.34 WHIP in 25 1/3 innings, striking out 15 and walking only 8.  Penny gets a lot of ground balls, holding a 1.35 career GB/FO ratio.

AJ Burnett’s 2010 was…not good.  An article in today’s New York Post said it best: “After a strong start in 2010, nearly everything about Burnett’s season looked awful. He finished the year with a 10-15 record, a 5.26 ERA, 16 wild pitches, 19 hit batsmen, one lost fight with a clubhouse door, one mysterious black eye and just one postseason start after manager Joe Girardi deemed him untrustworthy.”  The article goes on to mention that Burnett’s 2010 was one of the worst statistically in Yankee’s history.

On the other hand, this is a guy with a career ERA just under 4, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 8.22 K/9 ratio over 12 seasons.  That’s pretty salty.  The boys will definitely have their work cut out for them today.

Boesch will be in left field instead of Raburn, batting sixth, and Avila and Inge will flip flop in the 8 and 9 spots in the lineup.

Check out this article that Joe Posnanski wrote on SI.com covering the 32 best players in baseball.  JV and Miggy made the list.

Opening day.  Is.  Here.   Rejoice.

The voice of the turtle, the warmth of the sun, and the superflous bunting adorning every inch of stadium fascia.  Every team is in first place and hope abounds.  Fresh cut grass, crisp new uni’s, warm dogs and cold beer.  It’s difficult to imagine a better day of the year.

I’m working a full day today, but I’ll be sporting my Tigers cufflinks (they contain little pieces of seats from Tigers stadium) and wearing my home cap.  Thanks to AppleTV and mlb.tv, I’ll be streaming the game on the TV in our lobby.

Who is going to the game?  If you’re not going to the game, how will you watch and/or listen?