Yearly Archives: 2011

2011 Season, Managing & Strategy

Quantifying Ol’ Smokey

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Along with their player forecasts and team breakdowns, Baseball Prospectus publishes “stats” on managers long with a lengthy write-up…”Old Smokey remains one of the league’s better skippers…”

Generally, I think that day in/day obsession with the team grants us better insight then whatever stats BP can come up with, though it is difficult to argue with BP’s algorithmic brilliance and their ability to objectively quantify data, and only data.  Unfortunately, when it comes to managers, the numbers seem to be little more than obscure trivia answers.  With that in mind, I’ve posted some select “manager stats” below.  Pythag is the manager’s 2010 pythagorean expectation (a Bill James invention, read about it here or here), Avg. PC is the average pitch count per game, BQS is “blown quality starts,” REL is relievers used, and Rel w Zero R is relief appearances with zero runs allowed.

BP doesn’t list league averages, so I’ll post the rest of the division for comparison’s sake.

Manager Pythag Avg. PC BQS REL REL w Zero R
Ol Smokey -1 99.8 4 416 242
Manny Acta 0 96.8 4 468 305
Ron Gardenhire 1 93.7 6 465 315
Hillman/Yost 4 96.7 6 332 206
Guillen 2 99.5 11 406

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Hard to really get much out of that, but interesting fodder none the less.

I do, however, have some more useful figures, courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.

In 19 years as a manager, JL is 1493 and 1518, for a .496 winning percentage.  (Don’t look for him to get to .500 this year.)  He’s won one WS (’97 with the Marlins) and 2 pennants.  As the manager of the Tigers, he’s fared significantly better, 424-387 for a .523 winning percentage. Sounds pretty good, right?  Not when you look at his second half numbers.  The numbers below reflect Tigers’ records after the All Star break under Leyland.

’06 – 2 games under

’07 – 4 games under

’08 – 14 games under

’09 – even

’10 – 10 games under

Thus, since 2006, Leyland is an astonishing 30 games under .500 after the AS break, and an even more incredible 67 games over before the summer classic.  Looking at one season, maybe two, you can point to player drop-offs or injuries.  But five years is hardly a coincidence.

Continuing, I was shocked to see that JL was in the middle of the pack when it comes to using relievers, part of that is due to his willingness to let Verlander throw so many pitches (I’m not necessarily against that).  Though I did not post it above, his hit & run frequency was also in the middle of the pack for AL Central managers.

So in the end, I’ll leave it up to you guys.  Is Leyland one of the league’s “better skippers?”   Or does he simply have everyone fooled but us?

2011 Season, Links

News and Notes: 3.18.11

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– In case you are not following along, Cabrera is mashing to the tune of .357/.391/.714 for an OPS of 1.105.  I’m guessing his OBP could be higher, but he’s swinging to get into shape.

– Benoit has looked very good with a .71 WHIP and 10Ks in 7 IP.

– Valverde has 4 BBs in 7 IP.  Not good.  Perry has 5 in 8 IP.  Schlereth had 4 in 4 batters.  That beard can’t be helping.

– Coke has looked pretty good this spring, but he’s concerned about the velocity on his fastball.  So am I.

– After the Porcello and Perry regressions, it looks like the Tigers are going to take it slow with Jacob Turner.  Good plan.

– Leyland has decided that Guillen and Zumaya will stay in Florida for the start of the season.  Anyone want to take the under on May 15 as the first date that either will appear?

2011 Season, Links

News and Notes: 3.10.11

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– That’s two days in a row now that young Tiger hitters have come up to the plate in the bottom of the 9th as the tying or go ahead run, both times with the bases loaded, and then watched 3 straight called strikes hum by.  (Worth on Tues, Sizemore on Wed).

– Fangraphs had an interesting post on the Tigers’ rotation a few days ago.   The author, Ben Nicholson-Smith, questions DD’s decision to add depth to the starting rotation.

– 40 IPs for Zumaya might be a little much, as it looks like he won’t be ready for the opener.  We’ve seen this before.  Beck posted some of Leyland’s thoughts about heading into the season without Zumaya in the pen.

– The Cabrera video has been released.  I’m staying away from it, but it’s big news today.

2011 Season, Previews

Baseball Prospectus’ take on the 2011 Season

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I picked up BP 2011 last week and have had an opportunity to review their outlook on the Tigers (amongst other things).  There’s no substitute for picking up the whole thing (it’s only $12.86 on Amazon now), but I wanted to pass along a few thoughts, and get your reaction.

First of all, BP is notoriously pessimistic, and their writers all seem to share the same cynicism and arrogance.  It’s funny in small doses, but gets tiresome after a while.  So while the information is amazing, and their projection algorithms are second to none, be prepared for elongated jabs at virtually everyone.

Anyway, there is a certain amount of nomenclature that is intrinsic to BP, so I’ll try not to focus too much on their less well known stats.  But in case you want/need a primer – here is a link to their glossary.

Also, win totals for superstar pitchers and HR/RBIs for superstar hitters always seem to be low, no? Does anyone know if BP calculates team win totals first, and then lets the individual stats follow that, or is it the other way around?  I’m guessing the players are forecast first.  They have probably posted an article on this in the past, if someone has seen it, please let me know.  I’m really curious to know if they have addressed before.

Team

In analyzing the 2010 season, BP gives high marks to the Granderson/Jackson deal, writing that “it was a bold and controversial move that wound up paying off in spades” citing the payroll flexibility and that “cheap talent is the life-blood of a winning organization.”  A-Jax, Scherzer, Coke & Schlereth combined for 8.9 Wins Above Replacement Player (“WARP”), while Granderson and Jackson combined for 5.9.  +3 WARP is pretty darn good.  Not to mention that Scherzer, Jackson, Coke and Schlereth combined for 26 years of team control when the deal was done (22 now), while Granderson & Jackson were at 7 (5 now) at the time.  More WARP + more player control + less price = great deal.

BP goes on to mention that the Tigers have a “core of young players who could form the base of a championship team,” starting with pitching talent.  According to BP, this is paramount because pitching talent is the most difficult asset to acquire in the open market.

BP feels that the Tigers have as good as anyone to win the Central.  Referencing 2010, the Tigers’ staff could be compared to that of San Fran (could) and BP reminds us that San Fran didn’t have Miguel Cabrera.

Hitters

I won’t go through them all, but a few highlights.  When I list slashlines, it’s Avg/OBP/Slg.

Cabrera projects to have another monster year (36 HRs 110 RBI, .948 OPS), but his projected WARP is only 4.2 (6.4 in 2010 and 4.4 in 2009).  Pujols, on the other hand, projects to an 8.1 WARP, and had a WARP of 7.8 last year, even though by most accounts Cabrera had a better offensive year (higher slugging, higher average, higher OBP). I know that Pujols is a significantly better baserunner but was he 1.4 WARP better?  And considering that Cabrera is 3 years younger, why the gross discrepancy in this year’s forecast?  Anyone at BP reading this?

Like many, BP was blown away by A-Jax’s 2010 .393 BABIP, and projects a still high but more reasonable .346 BABIP for him this year, which results in a pretty pedestrian .268 BA and .704 OPS (actually, pedestrian is generous; an OPS of .704 for a center fielder merits the bench). Jackson is going to have to develop more gap power and cut down on Ks (BP projects 152 of them, down from 170) to be a consistently good player.  .268/.325/.381

Incredibly, BP projects 478 PAs for Guillen, but also mentions that the Tigers’ hopes of Guillen making good on the final year of his $48M contract are similar to their “hope to capture and train a unicorn this spring.”  Still BP thinks Guillen will slug .771, which is great for a 2B, but not so good for a DH/corner outfielder.  .265/.346/.425

Raburn projects to a very healthy .806 OPS over 381 plate appearances. .266/.337/.469

Maggs projects to an. 814 OPS, but his low low fielding leaves him with only a 1.1 WARP. .293/.363/.451

VMart should be everything the club wants him to be; BP sees him batting .287/.357/.458, with 19 HR and a WARP of 2.9.

And because everyone wants to know, Inge projects to a reasonable 1.5 WARP, largely resulting from his fielding prowess.  .228/.309/.385.  stephen, please let us know how you feel about a corner infielder with a sub .700 OPS.

Pitchers

BP projects another huge year for JV, but only 14 wins, which says a lot about what they see behind him.  The interesting parts about their projection is that they think JV’s SO/9 will drop by 5%, yet his BB/9 will increase slightly (3%).  Regardless, he projects to a 5.5 WARP.  Highest on the team by a long shot.

BP sees Scherzer as striking out more per 9 than JV (8.8), but only projects him to 145 IPs, way less than 2009 and 2010.  BP knows quite a bit about injuries as they relate to workload, age & pitching mechanics, but I certainly hope that he gets to to 180 IPs or so. Interestingly, BP refers to Scherzer as a current “ace,” but they really do not get into the low IP projections.  Scherzer’s 2011 WARP projection is 3.6.

Porcello projects to a 2.3 WARP (which is great), but a 1.39 WHIP and 4.40 ERA.  4.4 K/9 like BP suggests just won’t do it.

BP thinks Zumaya will get into 40 games this year, but they project his BB/9 to 4.7 with a 1.45 WHIP an 4.12 ERA.

Finally, Benoit…”Because some teams don’t pay attention to the volatile nature of relief performances, the owner of a 4.47 career ERA with two good seasons in the last five years snagged a three-year, $16.5 million deal with Detroit.  That’s an expensive recipe for heartbreak.”  I still don’t like this deal.  BP projects 71 IPs with a 1.19 WHIP, 9.9 SO/9 and 2.95 ERA for 2011.  I can live with that.

BP also goes into great detail on manager analysis, I’ll save that for a separate post later this week.  Considering the polarizing nature of Ol’ Smokey, I think we’ll have plenty to discuss on that one.

Again, pick up your copy of Baseball Prospectus 2011 here.

2011 Season

How Will You Follow the Tigers This Year?

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Some of my fondest memories as a kid recall listening to Ernie Harwell on a summer night through an old mini-boombox (maybe even a dual cassette one!) or clock radio.  I loved hearing the same sponsors year over year.  There was something about listening until the game was over, and trying to stay awake long enough to hear the game recap.  Even if it was a loss, at least they’d talk about probables for tomorrow.  Then I would wake up and double check my memory via the box score, and look around the league to see who had a big night.

As a result, I’m a radio first guy, for all sports.  Even if I’m watching the game, I’m usually muting Rod and Mario in favor of the sweet melody of Dan and Jim.  I think some people may do step one without step two.

But I’m curious to know, how do you follow?

This will mark my 6th year of MLB.tv, it’s a must for any out of town fan.  I also have XM radio, which covers all MLB games, and then At Bat for the iPhone.  I’m even considering adding it for my iPad.  I know, its ridiculously redundant, but I want Tigers baseball at my every disposal.

Unfortunately, and to the dismay of commenters on its website, MLB does not offer package pricing.  So it’s $120 for MLB.tv, and then $15 each for the iPhone and iPad apps.  This sounds like price gouging, but I’m about to pay it.  On the other hand, $150 for a year of Tigers’ baseball (~$200 if you include the XM subscription during the season) through virtually every electronic medium I own?  Not bad.

I’m also considering adding a Roku or Apple TV into the mix, so that I can stream the game from MLB.tv through my TV (as opposed to my computer monitor).  I’d love to hear your thoughts if you are familiar with either.

And what about Twitter?  I follow Jason Beck, Dickerson, billfer and Det_Sports.  Anyone else out there hot on the Tigers?

Also, a little housekeeping:

1) If you like the posts/site, please “Like” the posts on Facebook.  You should see a button following the text for each post.

2) If anyone wants to contribute during the season, I’d love some help with the game posts.  I can always throw a quick thread up for comments, but I’d prefer to have a little background for each game and that’s a tough gig for one guy to handle.  billfer really did have a second, full-time job. See below for my email addy.

3) I’m always up for ideas for the site.  You can reach me at kmvela @ yahoo dot com.

2011 Season, Players

Yahoo! Sports Writer Takes a Shot at the Tigers

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Admittedly, the only reason I saw this was because I was browsing other Tigers blogs out there. But apparently, some guy named Jeff Passan over at Yahoo! sports has taken issue with the way the Tigers (affectionately referred to as the “Pussy Cats”) have handled the Cabrera issue.  You really should check it out.  Passan goes so far as to insinuate that Cabrera could “run a dog fighting ring or kill someone” before getting a reaction out of the organization.

Passan comes off as very Jim Rome’ish, (my guess is he’s been punked by guys like Jim Everett in the past), but he’s probably just writing to get a reaction.

As I wrote earlier, I wish the Tigers would have come forward sooner, but I don’t see it as their responsibility to punish Cabrera.  Get him help, yes.  But fine him or bench him?  The likes of Mickey Mantle & Jim Bouton would have never seen the grass if Passan had his way.

What are your thoughts?

2011 Season, Players, Spring Training

Cabrera, the day after.

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(image courtesy of DetroitNews.com)

I’m sure that most of you have read the Freep and News by now, they are both loaded with Cabrera stories.

The central theme is that Cabrera is unlikely to report to camp tomorrow with the rest of the fielders, as the commissioner’s office and the union are involved in “the process.”  Looks like his next steps (rehab? admonition by the team? personal time?) are still up in the air.

I don’t think that alcoholism is novel to ballplayers, but Cabrera seems to have a depression problem.    I also think that DD is full of it when he says he was “shocked” to learn of the incident. I’m not blaming DD here, but I’m confident the front office knows their players better than that.  I think there was a better option for his reaction to the media.  Continuing, the Tigers need to support this guy.  In my limited, unprofessional opinion, drinking scotchy scotch scotch in front of the cops was a blatant call for help.  How did these personal issues get past DD, Avila, Cabrera’s agent, etc.?  Cabrera wanted this to blow up.

Predictably, Mitch Albom, was judgmental and belittling in today’s column.  (Question, Albom used to be awesome, but now he’s annoyingly holier than thou, no?  He and Skip Bayless look more and more alike every day; Dorian Gray anyone?)

The News actually took a pretty dim, and far-fetched view of things, with Wojnowski reporting that Cabrera’s “career may be on the line” and the Tigers are pondering “Miguel Cabrera’s future.”  Both of these vagaries can be loosely interpreted as either good analysis or ridiculous shock content, I fall in line with the latter.  His career is not on the line, and we need to rally around this guy.

Honestly, I don’t think this affects the season at all.  Cabrera needs to see about 3 pitches to be MVP caliber ready, so if anyone can show up to spring training late, it’s this guy.  He has the resources around him (we hope) to get the treatment/help he needs.  What befuddles me is that the organization has seemingly distanced themselves from him, rather than rallying around him. There is still time to do so, but it needs to happen, soon.  At least Leyland is moving on from it, saying yesterday that it “won’t affect the team.”  In fact, he was pretty emphatic about it, reports Ken Rosenthal.  I’m sure Leyland has seen a lot in his day, and I’m inclined to agree with him.

(I’m also a little concerned about the “3-4 knee spikes” into Cabrera’s thigh.  You’d need a lot of force to take the big man down.)

2011 Season, Spring Training

Uh-Oh…Cabrera arrested again for a DUI

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(photo from Detroit Free Press online)

– Here’s the story in the Freep.  And ESPN.com.  As you would imagine, it’s pretty much everywhere.  This story from an outlet in Florida, quotes Cabrera as saying “I’m going to (expletive) kill him” when asked who he was with.

I think this is much deeper than a ballplayer having too good of a time and making a poor decision.  Let’s see how the team and front office react.  I think the way the Rangers handled the Ron Washington cocaine admission was a catalyst for their success.  We’ll need something like that.

2011 Season, Spring Training

Pitchers and Catchers

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Happy Pitchers and Catchers everyone.

A few things that I’m looking for in spring training:

1) 2B, whose job it is anyway?  By all accounts, Carlos Guillen is our 2B, but he won’t be ready until mid April.  So Willy Rhymes and Scott Sizemore will be splitting duties in the interim.  What happens if one of them plays lights out this spring?  Does Guillen still have the job when he gets back?  Or could he be on the trading block?

2) Who will be our everyday left-fielder?  Right now, it’s a competition between Raburn and Boesch.  But if both play well, what’s wrong with giving Raburn some ABs at 2B?  I think we can all agree that 1st half of 2010 Boesch + Raburn at 2B would be a significant boost to our lineup.  I’m guessing that we start the season with a Raburn/Boesch platoon in left, with Raburn spelling other positions when Boesch starts.  I feel strongly about getting Raburn 550+ ABs this year.

To further this discussion, assuming Boesch is more than a 4A player, we are really in a good position to deal with our aging vets.  I think we all expect Maggs and Martinez to get injured at some point in the season (hopefully for not too long), so having the likes of Guillen and Boesch to fill those at bats doesn’t sound too bad.  And where does Don Kelly fit in?

3) Does Coke have the stamina to be a starter?  He only threw 25+ pitches in a game three times last year.  If you’ll recall, he started the final game of 2010, and was promptly chased after 1 2/3.  I love the idea of having a lefty at the back of the rotation, but he’ll need some serious work to get up to 80+ pitches by April.

4) Who else can be an effective starter?  The boys will likely need 30-40 starts from guys not currently contemplated to be in the rotation.  I’m pretty sure we can predict what we’ll get 1-3.  What can Penny bring?  And after Coke, is Oliver ready to fill in?  Interestingly enough, Rotoworld lists Brayan Villarreal as #6 on our depth charts.

5) Is Joaquin Benoit worth $5.5M?  That’s a heck of a lot for a setup man with only 1 great season behind him.  Unfortunately, I don’t see spring training as an effective medium for measuring relief pitchers.  So it will be a while before I’m ready to answer this one.  Remember how good Valverde looked in April/May/June before he forgot where the strike zone was.

6) How does Maggs’ ankle look?  We’ll need on the field reports from those of you headed out to Lakeland.

What else are you looking for during spring training?  What are your thoughts on the LF and 2B carousel?

2011 Season, Trade Rumors

The Michael Young Trade That’s Not Going to Happen (to any team)

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For a guy who has widely been regarded as the “face of the franchise” for so long, the Rangers sure have put Michael Young through a lot.

First, in 2004, coming off of a superb defensive year at 2B, the Rangers asked Young to move to SS in order to make room for Alfonso Soriano, who was a 2B equivalent of Roger Dorn.  Young said no, then relented when Rangers’ brass ignored his bluff.  He went on to make the AS team at 2B for five years in a row, and won a Gold Glove in 2008.  I’m not sure how he did, but remember that Derek Jeter’s living room is full of Gold Gloves.

But that wasn’t good enough for the Rangers, so in 2009, they asked him to move to 3B to make room for the fielding wizardry of Elvis Andrus.  (Side note, Andrus makes at least one play every game that is worth the price of admission.  Kid is sick.)  Young balked and asked for a trade over the winter. He then rescinded that request and agreed to move to 3B.  He again made the All Star team, this time as a third basemen, in 2009 and had a tremendous year at the plate.

Now, only two years removed from that position swap, the Rangers have asked Young to move again, to DH, in order to make room for Adrian Beltre. It’s a tough call PR wise based on what Young has done and meant to the Rangers over the years, but it’s an easy call when you look at the numbers.

Thus, as a result, Young put himself on the trading block.  He began with a list of 8 potential suitors, but by all accounts he’ll go anywhere with a decent chance to win and an open infield position.

So how about a swap for Carlos Guillen?  The Rangers could use a left handed DH/utility guy/fourth outfielder, and their salaries are almost a wash.  They are roughly the same age (Young is a year younger), and are entering the twilights of their respective careers.  (I’m sure there would be some PsTBNL in there, but you get my drift.)

I gotta admit, I was at first intrigued by the possibility of Young playing 2B for the Tigers.  It’s a big hole for us, and one that he could fill well.  Michael Young was above league average defensively at 2B, and his Placido Polanco type bat (with a lot more pop), would do well in the two hole.  From a salary perspective, Young is owed $16M, $16M and $16M, but when you consider that Carlos Guillen is going to get paid $13M in 2011, it’s easy to think that the Rangers could give some cash to fill the 2012 and 2013 voids.  Moreover, Young has played in 155+ games in 8/9 seasons, with the low being 134 in 2009 (yes, that’s 155!).  Guillen, on the other hand, has only played in 134+ games 3 times in his 7 years with the Tigers.

On the other hand, the deeper I dug, the less sense it made.  Not because Guillen is the answer, but because Young is no longer a great player.  His career OPS+ is 105 (Guillen’s is 111), and Young’s is only that high because of his tremendous 2005 and 2009 seasons.  Without those years, he’s a career 99 as a regular.  Moreover, his range factor relative to the league has been abysmal over the past two years (and was a serious source of concern following game 1 of the ALCS, and game 1 of the World Series).  Finally, his 2011 salary would be easy for me to swallow based on Guillen’s, but 2012 and 2013 would be virtually impossible years for Young to perform up to salary expectations.

And, I’ll give you that I’m intrigued to see what Sizemore/Rhymes can do.  Not that I saw much out of them last year, but they are young and cheap.

But I still feel for Michael Young.  Across the phone lines and newsstands, no one is coming to his defense.  Literally, no one.  Well, except for this kid. For years and years he was lauded as the ultimate team player, and the consummate professional.  His trade demands in 2009 struck a chord, and now it looks like his suspect defense and bloated salary have caught up to him.  Don’t get me wrong, he’s a nice player, but not $48M over 3 years nice.

Anyway, now it looks like there are no takers around the league.  Despite strong interest from Colorado and some from the Angels, word around here is that Young will likely be with the Rangers through Spring Training.  The way that some of this has played out in the media has been a sports editor’s dream.  Check out the quotes from Michael Young here, and the management’s innuendos here.  I mean, did Daniels basically say that trading Young would upgrade his team?  It’s too bad.  Young doesn’t want to be here.  The Rangers don’t want him.  Seems like someone out there could find a way to make this work.  Though I don’t think Alfonso Soriano is the answer.

Pitchers and Catchers, three days.

2011 Season, Links

News and Notes: 2.9.11

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– Can you play 2B?  GIve it a shot.

– At least someone thinks 2010 1st half Brennan Boesch is the real BB.

– Check out this interview with Patrick Leyland, son of Ol’ Smokey.  I really enjoyed the part about Paws being a better manager than JL (it may have been removed by the time you get to it).

– Henning’s column title today caught my eye – the Tigers need a big bat?  I’m pretty sure the boys are aware of several other pressing needs.  But a full read reveals that Henning is looking for one of the guys we already have to step up.

– I’m really, really into this Michael Young thing.  Full post on him coming tomorrow.

2011 Season, Links

News and Notes: 2.2.11

2 Comments

– Dombrowski stated yesterday that neither Bondo nor Vlad Guerrero would be pursued any further (if they were at all).  Looks like Bondo is going to end up in…Cleveland, according to MLB.com.

– Lynn Henning put together his list of the top 50 prospects within the organizations.  Jacob Turner is #1.

– The 2011 predictions are starting to roll in, and while most outlets think the Central will be a tight race, most of them have the Tigers losing out to the White Sox and Twins.

– Great article on Fangraphs last week discussing Galarraga and his (slim) chances of success in the NL.

– FYI – Don Kelly and Brad Thomas are out of options.