Tonight the Tigers begin the first of three remaining 3-game series against the Cleveland Indians, and by Sunday evening the standings in the Central division could look very different. With the Indians only 1 1/2 games back and the White Sox only 4, by the end of the weekend Cleveland could be in first–or in third.

Even Baseball Tonight’s video feature today is a Tigers-Indians series preview. The short version: why isn’t Justin pitching?

Series matchups:

• Game 1 Fri 7:05  Josh Tomlin (12-5, 3.97)  vs Max Scherzer (12-7, 4.37)
• Game 2 Sat 7:05 David Huff (1-1, 0.51) vs Doug Fister (1-1, 6.14 with DET)
• Game 3 Sun 1:05 Ubaldo Jimenez (1-0, 4.58 with CLE) vs Rick Porcello (11-8, 4.98)
• Not pitching:  Justin Masterson (10-7, 2.71) vs Justin Verlander (18-5, 2.31)

While we clearly win the matchup of the not-pitching guys, the Indians look to have a bit of an edge overall in the series.

In tonight’s battle of the 2nd-bests, Max Scherzer will try to avoid having an inning like the 2nd inning of his last start, where he gave up 5 runs, but then settled down and pulled out a 6-5 victory, reaching Verlander-like fastball velocity in his last inning.

Tomlin has put together better numbers than Scherzer, and is coming off of a 3-1 victory over Minnesota in his last start.

The AccuScore Projections say Cleveland should take this one (although it’s a close 52-48% margin).  The ESPN fan poll currently has the Tigers with a 77.5% favoritism.  Are you with the computer simulation or with the fans?

Player of the Pre-game:  Alex Avila

Alex’s bat is still hot–over the last two weeks he leads the Tigers in BA, OBP, and OPS (.405/.542/1.082), keeps the 6th spot in the lineup, and the backstop warrior finally had a day off.

Today’s Central-Leading Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson CF
2. Brennan Boesch RF
3. Delmon Young LF
4. Miguel Cabrera 1B
5. Victor Martinez DH
6. Alex Avila C
7. Jhonny Peralta SS
8. Wilson Betemit 3B
9. Ryan Raburn 2B

A Once Notorious Tiger Killer meets Newer Tiger Killer.

Pavano’s dominance over the Tigers has taken a 180 since 2009.  Since a 4-0, 1.69 ERA start covering 5 games in 2009 (still hurts), he’s 1-3 with a 7.12 ERA over his past 5 starts.  Several Tigers (avg/ABs Cabrera – .310/29, Ordonez – .375/24, Betemit – .333/12, Peralta – .417/12, Avila – .300/10, Martinez – .444/9, Santiago – .444/9, Raburn – .333/6, Young – .600/5, Kelly – .750/4) are ready to pounce on Pavano.

Despite his winning record, Penny has been pretty bad this year posting a 1.49 WHIP and 4.99 ERA.  But has been above average at home, posting a 3.98 ERA in 81 1/3 at CoPa.  He also has reverse BAA splits, as lefties are only batting .250 against him this year, while righties are batting .339.  This bodes well against the lefty heavy Twins lineup which includes Thome tonight.

– Al Al had a CAT scan today.  If all went well, he could be ready to pitch this weekend.
– Chance Ruffin is on his way to Seattle as the PTBNL in the Pauley/Fister deal.
– Phil Coke has allowed 0 runs and only 3 hits over his last 5 2/3.
– Cabrera is batting .414 with 8 RBIs over the last two weeks.

Today’s player of the game – Bad Brad Penny gets on a roll heading into the stretch run.

Today’s Leyland has been reading Vince in MN’s platoon suggestion Lineup is:

1. Andy Dirks, CF
2. Brennan Boesch, RF
3. Delmon Young, LF
4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
5. Victor Martinez, DH
6. Alex Avila, C
7. Jhonny Peralta, SS
8. Don Kelly, 3B
9. Ramon Santiago, 2B

Well, this series didn’t exactly start well last night, although it did have its interesting moments.  Delmon Young swapped jerseys, and began his Tiger career with a HR off of his previous team (the last time someone did that was Dave Martinez in 2000.  Aren’t we lucky there are people who look these kind of things up?).  In related news, Lester Oliveros was already named as the player-to-be-named-later today.  Hardly qualifies as later.  The circumstances of Young’s team-switching were actually a bit humorous.

Jim Thome hit HR #599, then #600 off of Dan Schlereth, and got a nice ovation from the classy Comerica crowd. It figures he would reach the milestone against the Tigers. As Chris said, congratulations–now retire already.

And Raburn was…well Raburn.  He hit a home run, but also made an error that led to 2 unearned runs, and had another clownish play where he ended up sitting on 2B instead of turning a DP.

At any rate, no use dwelling on that, it’s Verlander night.  The Tiger rotation has again begun to devolve into Verlander and a bunch of Other Guys;  despite his great season, the Tigers are only 11th in the AL in team ERA.  In fact, I decided to take a look at how the Tigers compare to other teams with their 2nd best starter:

• LAA 2.96 Dan Haren
• NYY 3.16 Freddy Garcia
• TBR 3.22 Jeremy Hellickson
• TEX 3.28 CJ Wilson
• BOS 3.32 John Lester
• SEA 3.45 Erick Bedard
• OAK 3.62 Brandon McCarthy
• CHW 3.67 Phll Humber
• CLE 3.97 Josh Tomlin
• TOR 4.11 Jesse Litch
• KCR 4.15 Bruce Chen
• MIN 4.36 Nick Blackburn
• DET 4.37 Max Scherzer
• BAL 4.66 Zach Britton

So after Verlander, the Tiger rotation starts off in the realm of Baltimore and Minnesota, and goes down from there (the Tigers can’t compete with the worst 4 and 5 guys though–there are a few truly awful ones out there).

Verlander draws Minnesota’s 2nd best starter Nick Blackburn (7-9, 4.36).

Player of the Pre-game:  Justin Verlander

Watching last night’s infield play from the dugout, Verlander says, “Really?”

Tonight Raburn and Betemit are out, Santiago and Kelly in.

Today’s Boesch-is-Baeck Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson CF
2. Brennan Boesch RF
3. Delmon Young LF
4. Miguel Cabrera 1B
5. Victor Martinez DH
6. Alex Avila C
7. Jhonny Peralta SS
8. Don Kelly 3B
9. Ramon Santiago 2B

Detroit failed to get the series sweep last night in Baltimore, but the Tigers are still 8 games over .500 (64-56)–even though they have only scored 533 runs while giving up 547.  Their Pythagorean win loss record (which uses runs scored and given up to calculate expected record) is 59-61, which means the Tigers should be in 3rd place, a game behind the White Sox.  (Although, actually, somehow every team in the Central should have a worse record than it does).

One way to look at those numbers is to say the Tigers have just plain been lucky–and consequently, can’t be expected to continue winning at the same rate all season.

On the other hand, Detroit has been doing two things that winning teams do–they have been defeating their division opponents, and they have been winning the close games:  the Tigers are 19-13 in 1-run games, and 26-16 against Central Division opponents.

Tonight Detroit comes home to start a 3-game series against Minnesota, who has lately been a favorite Central opponent:  Detroit has won 12 of the last 13 games between the two rivals, and has averaged 6.3 runs per game against them this season.

Tonight’s starter, Francisco Liriano, has seen his share of the damage, managing less than 6 total innings for his two starts, while giving up 8 runs.

Tiger starter Rick Porcello looks to get back on track after getting knocked for 8 runs by Cleveland his last start.

**breaking news, Delmon Young will be darting across the field to exchange jerseys: The Tigers have acquired Young from the Twins for Cole Nelson and a player to be named later. And he steps right into the starting lineup!

Player of the Pre-game:  Victor Martinez

V-Mart has been one of the hotter Tiger bats over the last 2 weeks (.366), and his career average against Liriano is a nice fat .476.

Today’s Look Who’s 3rd Lineup:

Austin Jackson CF
Ryan Raburn 2B
Delmon Young LF
Miguel Cabrera 1B
Victor Martinez DH
Jhonny Peralta SS
Magglio Ordonez RF
Alex Avila C
Wilson Betamit 3B

Six consecutive two out hits last night, including Cabrera’s first HR since July 28th, turned the tables on Cy Guthrie and got the boys to a season high 9 games over .500.  Weather permitting (there is a 100% chance of rain in Baltimore today), the Tigers will look to go 10 games over .500.

Kudos to the pitching staff…despite severe troubles at the plate, the Tigers are 8-4 over their last 12, though only scoring 3.5 runs per game.  I did not know that it was this bad.  The Tigers look for their first win in over two weeks by more than a run.

Neat article in today’s Freep about Inge’s time at Toledo.  Though I don’t think the article will help him to hit a big league fastball.

Guillen to the DL.  Not necessarily a bad thing.  He’s not helping any in the lineup.  Rhymes up, Santiago to start today.

As Peralta, Avila and Betemit mash the ball today, just remind yourself, “Austin Jackson and his 85 OPS+ will get one additional potentially crucial AB in the 8th or 9th that these .300 hitters will not get.”

1. Austin Jackson, CF
2. Andy Dirks, LF
3. Magglio Ordonez, RF
4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
5. Victor Martinez, DH
6. Jhonny Peralta, SS
7. Ryan Raburn, 3B
8. Alex Avila, C
9. Ramon Santiago, 2B

The Tigers managed only 5 runs despite 19 base runners in 42 PAs, and a respectable 4-12 RISP.  Benoit to Valverde has been nails as of late.

Mad Max goes for win number 12 (didn’t he have 8 wins in April or something) tonight against Jeremy Guthrie.

Perhaps the most important event yesterday happened before the game, when AlAl was beaned by an line drive during BP.  He spent the night in the hospital and his been placed on the 7 day concussion list.  He was released today, but no word on a return date.  Boesch is still day-to-day.

JLs let’s make sure our poorest hitters get the most ABs don’t argue with me we’re in first place lineup is:

1. Jackson CF
2. Dirks LF
3. Ordonez RF
4. Cabrera 1B
5. Martinez DH
6. Peralta SS
7. Avila C
8. Raburn 2B
9. Betemit 3B

Tigers look to get to .500 on the road.

Last July 16 the Tigers, in a virtual tie for first with Minnesota, came out of the all-star break on a 3-day trip to Cleveland, were swept, and never came near first again.  And Detroit hasn’t won at Cleveland since.

During this Cleveland trip Detroit has seen its Central lead slip from 4 to 2, with one more game left at Progressive field.  Could this be a deja-vu sweep, and if so can the Tigers recover?

One doesn’t have to go far for a bit of optimism.  Because…Justin Verlander.  (Of course last year’s series featured a Verlander start also–he gave up 3 in the 1st inning and lost.  But that wasn’t 2011 Verlander).  Feeling pessimistic? Verlander’s career record in Cleveland:  4-8, 6.31.  An interesting matchup will be Verlander vs rookie 2B Jason Kipnis, who has never faced him.  Kipnis went 5-5 last night and is hitting .364 over his last 10 games.  Tiger fans gaze out to 2nd with a sigh of envy…

Facing Verlander will be Fausto Carmona, perhaps best known to Detroit fans as the guy who played a knuckle tune on Gary Sheffield’s head.  Carmona is having a lackluster 5-11, 5.19 season.

Boesch will sit out the game with a sore thumb (no indication how much more time he will miss if any), which means we get to play Raburn Roulette in LF.

ESPN covers the Tigers today in its daily look at playoff contenders. Terry Foster says the Tigers will win the division–if Leyland changes the batting order. (Still, he can’t resist leaving Jackson in the leadoff spot).

Player of the Pre-game:  Austin Jackson

He has already struck out 39 times this season leading off, nobody else comes close (27 is next highest).  Add to that an OBP of a meager .267, and it may be time to try moving him elsewhere in the lineup.

Today’s Special K Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson CF
2. Ryan Raburn LF
3. Magglio Ordonez RF
4. Miguel Cabrera 1B
5. Victor Martinez DH
6. Jhonny Peralta SS
7. Carlos Guillen 2B
8. Alex Avila C
9. Wilson Betemit 3B