Detroit Tigers, 85-73, 1st place, 2 up, magic number 3.

Fister, then Smyly, then Verlander: the Tiger starters are on a roll, and this afternoon Anibal Sanchez takes the mound, following up one of the best Tiger starts of the season, to face the 1-9 Australian Liam Hendricks , who is the only Liam in MLB history, so he’s got that going for him.

Not that there wasn’t any drama last night, thanks to Long-Ball Benoit and Ryan D—it (again!). Doumit now has all 8 of the Twins’ RBI for the series.

And once again, P.J. Walters baffled the Tiger hitters.  Luckily the Twins had to resort to our old friend Casey Fien out of the bullpen, Cabrera re-tied for the HR lead, which has Mitch Albom all excited.

Speaking of excited, in the 5th inning yesterday, Quintin Berry stole second, an event that slipped under the radar.  Berry now has 21 stolen bases for the season, and has yet to be caught.  If he can manage the last 4 games without being caught, Mr. Berry has an American League record.

Max Scherzer is stiff iffy, but let’s wait a day or two before we start fretting about that.

Stat of the Day: Al Alburquerque has picked up on his improbably good season last year, throwing 12.1 scoreless innings, with a WHIP of 0.892.  Al now has a 84 strikeouts for his career in only 55.2 innings (1.52 per inning).

Today’s Player of the Pre-game:  Miguel Cabrera. The Twins’ Hendricks has given up 1.95 HRs per 9 innings, the 4th worst in baseball. You see where I’m going with this.

Today’s It-Worked-Yesterday Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson CF
2. Quintin Berry LF
3. Miguel Cabrera 3B
4. Prince Fielder 1B
5. Delmon Young DH
6. Andy Dirks RF
7. Jhonny Peralta  SS
8. Alex Avila C
9. Omar Infante 2B

Detroit Tigers, 84-73, 1st place, 1 up, magic number 5.

Doumit! Things were starting to go so well, even last night–a great outing by Smyly, who may end up being a key part of the stretch run/postseason…although the offense was strangely silent (again) against Diamond.  Diamond said that the Tiger hitters had adjusted to him since the last start, so he adjusted to their adjustments.  I suppose if Detroit had adjusted to his adjustments to their adjustments, he would have just adjusted to that.

At any rate…then the 6th inning happened.  Cabrera was uncharacteristically caught admiring a home-run-that-was-not and was stuck with a long single. He then made up for it by getting thrown out by a mile at home (I couldn’t see if Lamont waved him home…if he did, then credit Crazy Geno with 2 miles of out at home in 2 days for the 2 big guys).

Then Doumit happened, and a particularly bad episode of the Rreality Show, and Detroit is back to a slim one-game lead. (Dotel is day-to-day with a sore right bicep, which is why he came out for Villarreal).

“Nothing comes easy for us it looks like” said Gerald Laird, and we can probably all agree with that one.

Justin Verlander has the task of keeping the Tigers on top, he is ready to go, and he still hasn’t given up on the Cy Young award.  (Or, just for the hell of it, on Kate Upton, apparently).  The last time Verlander faced Minnesota he came away with a 5-1 complete game victory; his last 7 starts against the Twins he is 6-0 with a 2.12 ERA).  If there is anyone to watch out for it is the ever-annoying Denard Span, 15-38 (.395) lifetime against Verlander, .350 career vs. Detroit.

The Twins will try again with the Pajama Man, P.J. Walters, who kept Detroit to 1 run in 6 innings in Detroit Sunday.  Let’s see if Detroit makes adjustments, and if he can adjust to the adjustments.

Stat of the Day: Over the past 2 weeks Jhonny Peralta is hitting .128 (.403 OPS), with 3 GDPs, and 3 more that should have been.

Today’s Player of the Pre-game:  Omar Infante. Maybe the good plays in the field got his bat going. Maybe it stays going.

Today’s Hopefully-Adjusting Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson CF
2. Quintin Berry LF
3. Miguel Cabrera 3B
4. Prince Fielder 1B
5. Delmon Young DH
6. Andy Dirks RF
7. Jhonny Peralta  SS
8. Alex Avila C
9. Omar Infante 2B

Detroit Tigers, 84-72, 1st place, 2 up, magic number 5.

Well, that’s fun, after all this–that magic number thing.

After a disappointing “outing” by Rick Porcello on Wednesday (in which he got Not Enough Outs), Doug Fister came through in a big way, with Way Too Many Strikeouts, to the tune of an American League record 9 strikeouts in a row. Or, to look at it another way, going through the whole order in strikeout mode.

In fact, it was even better than that. In the 9 strikeouts recorded, Fister threw a sum total of 9 balls, or 1 per batter, if you will.

As much as the Tigers didn’t look like a playoff team yesterday (it’s not often you get spotted 5 errors, thank you very much Mr. Moustakas…and the failed Santiago pinch-bunt had a second-tier aroma about it), Fister looked like a playoff pitcher, and the ESPN folk agree.

Just for fun, here is a breakdown of his record-setting 9 consecutive strikeouts:

• • Salvador Perez looking on 1-2, 91-mph fastball.
  • Mike Moustakas swinging on 3-2 changeup.
  • Jeff Francoeur swinging on 1-2 slider.
  • Brayan Pena looking on 1-2, 89-mph fastball.
  • Johnny Giavotella looking on 0-2, 89-mph fastball.
  • David Lough looking on 2-2, 88-mph fastball.
  • Alcides Escobar swinging on 0-2, 89-mph fastball.
  • Alex Gordon looking on 0-2, 89-mph fastball up in the zone.
  • Billy Butler swinging on 1-2, 91-mph fastball.

The Tiger offense was sparked, surprisingly enough, by Quintin Berry, and by a hustling infield double by Prince Fielder. And let us all pause to soak that one in, because that will only happen so many times in your lifetime. Miguel Cabrera, on the other hand, was ominously silent. The Triple Crown hoopla may be getting to him.  

Meanwhile, the Rays took care of the plummeting White Sox, thanks in part to ol’ crooked hat, Fernando Rodney,  who still wears his hat askew, but has straightened out his command.

The Tigers are on the road tonight in a bit of a do-over series with the Minnesota Twins: The Tigers get another shot at Scott Diamond tonight and the Pajama Man tomorrow, after struggling against them last week.

A pumped Drew Smyly starts for the Tigers, and could turn out to be a key piece in a Tiger playoff run, with Max Scherzer still sorting out shoulder problems.

Stat of the Day: Gene Lamont leads the AL in sending plodding sluggers home from 3rd ill-advisedly by a margin of 64% over the next worse 3rd base coach.

Today’s Player of the Pre-game:  Omar Infante. It was good to see Omar excel in the field yesterday. It’s a thing called RANGE.

Today’s Avilaird Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson CF
2. Omar Infante 2B
3. Miguel Cabrera 3B
4. Prince Fielder 1B
5. Delmon Young DH
6. Groundout to Short  SS
7. Andy Dirks LF
8. Avisail Garcia RF
9. Gerald Laird C

83-72, 1st place, 1 game ahead of CWS.

In case you’ve missed today’s theme, we’re in first place.

Final home game of the regular season today, the Tigers head to Minnesota and KC for the final 6 of the season. Little bit of a shake-up for the final road-trip as Scherzer has been scratched for tomorrow’s start due to a deltoid strain. Smyly will start in his place. Jon Morosi wonders if the Tigers may look for a last minute replacement in the event that Scherzer’s shoulder is worse than we hope.

Luis Mendoza is 8-9 with a 4.44 ERA this year. The Tigers roughed him up for 6 ER on 7 hits over 5 innings on August 28th. Cabrera is 3-8 off of Mendoza with 1 HR.

If you’re headed out to the game today, here’s a list of the people whom you may need to say goodbye to: Leyland (I do not expect him to be back), Gerald Laird (I do expect him to be back), Brennan Boesch (I’m 50/50 on him), Jhonny Peralta (I hope we can find a better defensive solution; but don’t forget the Adam Everett days); Delmon Young (he’s gone with VMart back next year); and Anibal Sanchez (I expect the Tigers to make a strong offer to re-sign him).

I recognize that there is a lot going on with the pennant race and the Triple Crown and what not, but please take a moment to enjoy the sanctity and beauty of meaningful late September afternoon baseball. I’m going to watch the game from my desk with a sandwich and some chips, maybe a cold drink if things go our way. How about you?

A few notes:

– The Tigers will pass 3 million in attendance today for the 3rd time in club history (’07, ’08).

– The Tigers are 14 games over .500 since late June, 2nd best in the AL.

– The Tigers are 32-11 at home since Independence day. Some quick math tells us that they are not so hot on the road, so a win today is crucial with no more home cooking left.

Today’s First Place Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Berry, LF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Dirks, RF
7. Peralta, SS
8. Avila, C
9. Infante, 2B

82-72, 1st PLACE!

Anibal Sanchez picked a prime spot for his best performance as a Tiger when he picked through the Royals lineup with ease, allowing only 3 hits in a complete game shut-out. Sanchez K’d 10 against only 1 walk. Sanchez had to be nearly perfect, because Chen was surgical, according to Leyland. Chen was great, but Sanchez was spectacular.

Ricky P returns from vacation just in time to start for a first place club. Things haven’t been going so well during his recent outings. The Tigers have not won in his last 7 starts, and Porcello has taken the loss in 6 of those. Though he’s hardly to blame. During that 7 game stretch Porcello has allowed more than 3 runs just once, and the Tigers are 0-5 in one-run games (remember, we’re on an 0-11 one run game streak). Porcello’s ERA has actually dropped (4.68 to 4.57) during this 7 game span. Porcello is 1-1 with a 3.46 ERA against the Royals this season, and 5-3 with a 4.50 ERA versus KC over his career.

Jeremy Guthrie has been fantastic for the Royals as of late, only allowing 6 ER in his last 36 1/3 (1.49 ERA) and posting 5 straight quality starts, including 7 1/3 of 1 run ball against the Tigers on August 30th – though the Tigers did have 10 hits. In two starts against the Tigers this season, Guthrie is 1-1 with a 3.48 ERA. Cabrera is 7-19 (.368) with 2 HR off of Guthrie.

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A few notes:

– Looks like ESPN has Bob Holtzman trailing the Tigers to cover the Triple Crown. He said that he asked Cabrera in the locker room if Cabbie was keeping an eye on Hamilton (on the TV), and Cabrera said “no, why would I? I’ve got a game to get ready for tomorrow.” Cabrera’s head is in the right place.

– Though I’m not sure if Leyland’s is…he was quoted yesterday as saying: “I’m surprised we haven’t won more games than we have. I figured this team would win somewhere between 90 and 95 games.” It’s a little disconcerting that the manager of the team is surprised by anything. It’s as if he’s not paying attention.

– The last two selections for the DTW post image have thrown 10 innings of 3 hit, shutout ball, FYI.

– Papa Grande has hired Scott Boras. Boras and Dombrowski have worked together over the years (Pudge, Maggs, Rogers, Fielder). Curious time to get a new agent.

– 4 Ks from Porcello would set a new season high (currently 104 in 2011).

Tonight’s 1st Place Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Berry, LF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Dirks, RF
7. Peralta, SS
8. Avila, C
9. Infante, 2B

81-72, .5 games back.

There was a brief moment of exuberance last night, when the Tigers were arguably tied for first, and Miguel Cabrera was arguably in the Triple Crown lead. Then stephen spoke and all hell broke loose. Minutes later a Josh Hamilton 6th inning HR and an Adam Dunn 8th inning 3 run blast wiped the smiles away, and the Tigers and Cabrera were knocked back down a rung.

But today is a new day…Cleveland just beat CWS, 1st place is on the line tonight. More coming in a bit, I wanted to get this going with the CWS loss.

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Standing in the way of a first place tie is Tigers nemesis Bruce Chen. Or is he really our nemesis? Yes, Chen shutout the Tigers over 8 innings on August 29th, allowing only 4 hits and a walk in a KC win. But his 2012 ERA vs. the Tigers is 3.93, and for his career he’s 5-5 with a 5.49 ERA, and more importantly, 2-4 with a 6.82 ERA at Comerica. Pit that against his career 4.61 ERA, and we can conclude that 2 great starts against the Tigers in 2011 have colored our impression of Mr. Chen. Cabrera is 11-26 (.423) with 3 bombs against Chen, and DY is 8-18 (.444) with a homer.

Sanchez was roughed up his last time out, but he had posted 5 straight QS prior to the Oakland outing. Over his last 6 Sanchez has a 2.77 ERA and a handsome 1.05 WHIP. He can beat KC.

Speaking of good starting pitching, over the last month, Tigers’ starters have a 2.78 ERA and 180 Ks in 200 2/3 IP. Opponents are batting only .237 off of the starters during that stretch.

Tonight’s 1st Place Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Infante, 2B
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Dirks, LF
7. Peralta, SS
8. Garcia, RF
9. Laird, C

80-72, 2nd place, 1 game behind CWS, E# 10.

I haven’t yet figured out how to insert fancy charts into the Word Press editor yet, but imagine there’s a graph below entitled “Jose Valverde’s Career.” The Y axis (vertical) would go from “Bad” at the bottom to “Good” at the top. The X axis (horizontal) would say “Back Then” on the left and go to “Now” on the right. And then there would be an arrow diving from the top left of the chart towards the bottom right. With gusto.

It’s pretty easy to look at Valverde’s recent performance and note that he’s posting a 7.71 ERA over his last 10 outings, having allowed at least 1 ER in 6 of those 10 appearances. He’s been drilled for 5 ER in his last 2 1/3, and mercifully, in one of those, the game ended before he could invite anyone else onto the base paths. So what’s the reason?

As I mentioned last night and a few weeks ago, I think the culprit is his velocity, or lack thereof. According to FanGraphs, his fastball now sits at 93-94, instead of 94-96, and batters are jumping on it. As a result, the swings and misses are down (contact on 83.3% of swings, up from 76.9% last year) which means more balls in play and translates into hits at an alarming rate with our defense. The reduced velocity has also manifested itself in a woeful 6.47 K/9, which is over 3.5 off of his career average.

Moreover, he’s lost a good amount of movement on his fastball, which supports the increased contact. Unless he can develop another pitch, these are the sort of problems that can derail a closer’s career (or a borderline team’s playoff hopes).

Now, the counter to this argument is that is June, July and August were phenomenal. But note that his K rate for those three months was only around 6, and he walked as many in June as he struck out (4). I think that was just a little bit of randomness working itself out over the long season.

Valverde is not as bad as he’s been over the past few outings, but he’s no longer the same guy who K’d ARod to close out the ALDS last year.

(Note – not trying to ignore the team’s defensive woes, inability to make seemingly routine baseball plays and lineup holes. These are all factors. Just wanted to share a few thoughts on Big Potato.)

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The Tigers start an extended series with the Royals tonight which includes a makeup from an April 30th rainout. These will be the last 4 regular season games at Comerica this season. Then it’s off to Minnesota and KC to wrap things up.

It’s hard to get excited about a 4 game set with KC when on the heels of yesterday’s Twins sweep, but this division is wide open. And while the eventual WS Champion Cardinals sat 2.5 games out at this point in time last year, there are questions as to whether the Tigers have the right fire in the locker room.

So I’m going to pull the Spring Training line – had we known in March that the Tigers would be 1 game out, with 10 games remaining against teams that were a combined 37 games under .500, I think we’d all be okay with it, and pretty damn excited about these last 10 games.

Let’s Go Tigers!

Tigers are 7-4 against the Royals this year, 4-1 at Comerica. I feel a sweep.

1. Jackson, CF
2. Berry, LF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Dirks, RF
7. Peralta, SS
8.  Avila, C
9. Infante, 2B

Detroit Tigers, 80-71, 2nd place, .5 back.

Well, they say that it’s a hard thing to win both games of a double-header, although why that is harder than winning any other two games in a row has never been explained to me.  At any rate, after some preliminary calculations, I’ve concluded that there is a high probability that it is equally difficult to lose both games of a double-header.

So the Tigers have that going for them.

Detroit will be entrusting the rubber game to Smiling Drew Smyly, who will be faced by the Pajama Man, P.J. Walters. Forecast calls for probable hitting duel.

And this just in: once again a share of first place is on the line, the White Sox get swept by the Angels (don’t think the Indians will be so accommodating though).

According to ESPN, the White Sox have a 75.4% chance of making the playoffs, the Tigers have a 26.4% chance.  Say what?

Stat of the Day: 28 HR, 73 RBI, .346 BA, 1.146 OPS. A bit low on the RBI maybe, but that is an All-Star season. That is also the line Miguel Cabrera has put up so far this season AT COMERICA PARK. That’s 1 short of 1 RBI PER GAME.

Today’s Player of the Pre-game:  Ramon Santiago.  The knock on Santiago has always been that he just doesn’t have the endurance to play full-time. Considering he has 2 ABs in the last 26 days, he must be really due, and will endure throughout the game.

Today’s Ramon Who? Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson CF
2. Quintin Berry LF
3. Miguel Cabrera 3B
4. Prince Fielder 1B
5. Delmon Young DH
6. Brennan Boesch RF
7. Jhonny Peralta SS
8. Alex Avila C
9. Ramon Santiago 2B

Detroit Tigers, 80-70, 2nd place,  .5 back.

The rain went away, Doug Fister was the Fister we expected and more (he pitched his first career shutout), the bats were booming (every Tiger except Peralta had at least one hit, and 5 different Tigers knocked in runs), and the Angels were playing well, which means the Tigers have the potential to end today in 1st place (the White Sox game begins shortly before the Tigers’ should end; the the 2nd inning or so they could find themselves tied for first).

That all will depend in large measure how Max Scherzer bounces back from his sore shoulder. Since July 30th Scherzer has been the best pitcher on the Detroit staff, going 6-0 with a 1.93 ERA, and a whole barrel of strikeouts.

Scherzer, for his part, says he feels fine. “Everything felt good,” Scherzer said. “My arm warmed up quick. My arm felt 100 percent. I was able to throw every pitch.”

Going for the Twins will be Scott Diamond, who has pitched well against Detroit (3.26 ERA), but only has an 0-2 record to show for it.

Oh, and Miguel Cabrera hit home run 42 and is now tied for the triple crown lead, in case any of you somehow missed that.

Stat of the Day: 1/2 game behind is the stat for today.

Today’s Player of the Pre-game:  Miguel Cabrera.  Predicting #43 for today.

Today’s Day-Night Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson CF
2. Omar Infante 2B
3. Miguel Cabrera 3B
4. Prince Fielder 1B
5. Delmon Young DH
6. Jhonny Peralta SS
7. Andy Dirks LF
8. Avisail Garcia RF
9. Gerald Laird C

Detroit Tigers, 79-70, 2nd place, 1.5 back.

OK, let’s try 150 again.  The weather doesn’t exactly look promising today either, and with a day-night doubleheader on Sunday, the Tigers are already in a jam with their pitching rotation; Detroit will need 6 pitchers over the next 5 days.

The good new is that Max Scherzer has been cleared to pitch, so it looks like Max will pitch the first game Sunday, with Drew Smyly taking the rescheduled rain-out game Sunday night.

In other news, Ron Gardenhire thinks that Cabrera, not Trout should be the MVP: “you can saber all you want.”

Lee Panas has a good breakdown of why “sabering” gets you Trout as the MVP.

Stat of the Day: Detroit leads the AL in first-pitch hitting at bats with 666. (Their results are a bit above average:  the average OPS for first-pitch at bats is .884, the Tigers come in at .899).

Today’s Player of the Pre-game:  Alex Avila. Alex will try to avoid another bout with Prince Fielder, and try to pick up from the hot-hitting Gerald Laird (.364 over last 2 weeks).

Today’s Rain, Rain Go Away Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson CF
2. Quintin Berry LF
3. Miguel Cabrera 3B
4. Prince Fielder 1B
5. Delmon Young DH
6. Andy Dirks RF
7. Jhonny Peralta SS
8. Alex Avila C
9. Omar Infante 2B

Detroit Tigers, 79-70, 2nd place, 2 back.

You can’t win them all.

Even the very best teams lose 40% of the time; that’s baseball. The Tigers took 2 games out of 3 from a very successful Oakland A’s team, which all-in-all was a successful series. And yet…to look so bad losing, at this point in the season, is not encouraging.

Lynn Henning is perhaps stating the obvious when he said the main weakness the Tigers have is their gloves.  It is hard to tell how last night would have turned out with good defense, but the impact defense had on the game was certainly far beyond the 1 unearned run in the box score.

Buster Olney has a bit of a different take on the topic. Yes, the Tiger defense is awful, but the players have been supportive of each other–notably the pitchers have never publicly complained. Perhaps Jim Leyland deserves some credit for the team unity.

Well it’s all Twins and Royals from here on out.

Tonight Rick Porcello will try to break a personal 6-start winless streak, and last beyond the 4th inning.  Whether he can or not will probably have something to do with Denard Span (11-for-29 against Porcello). Samuel Deduno will try the Tigers again, after lasting a personal best 8 innings while beating Detroit during the last series between the teams.

No word yet on whether Max Scherzer will or will not make his Sunday start.

Stat of the Day: Detroit leads the AL in first-pitch hitting at bats with 666. (Their results are a bit above average:  the average OPS for first-pitch at bats is .884, the Tigers come in at .899).

Today’s Player of the Pre-game:  Alex Avila. Alex will try to avoid another bout with Prince Fielder, and try to pick up from the hot-hitting Gerald Laird (.364 over last 2 weeks).

Today’s Alex Is Back Lineup:

1. Austin Jackson CF
2. Quintin Berry LF
3. Miguel Cabrera 3B
4. Prince Fielder 1B
5. Delmon Young DH
6. Andy Dirks RF
7. Jhonny Peralta SS
8. Alex Avila C
9. Omar Infante 2B

(sorry for the late post)

79-69, 2nd place, 2 games behind CWS, E# 13.

Quick turnaround today.

Let’s not discount how well the Tigers have played over the last two days. The Athletics were the ALs hottest team coming into Detroit, posting an 8-2 record over their last 10 games and going 22-9 over the last month+. And the Tigers have won two snoozers. A sweep this afternoon could be just what the Tigers need to gain some real momentum heading into the final two weeks of the season.

Drew Sharp wrote this morning that the problem is the roster, not Leyland. Considering that the 2 best players in the AL (or 2/3 if you include Trout) play for the Tigers, they have an outstanding staff and AJax and Prince Fielder to boot, I hardly doubt that the roster is the problem. Sure, some better filler players would be welcomed, but I don’t agree with Sharp’s criticism.

Speaking of the final two weeks – I’d like to get a DTW reader poll going. How far would Jimmy Leyland have to go into the playoffs before you’d be willing to bring him back next year? The consensus seems to be make the playoffs or get out. But what happens if we lose in the first round? If the Tigers can miraculously make it through to the ALCS, but then get summarily dismissed, is there any way that Leyland suffers the same fate? To be clear, I’m not asking for a prediction (we’ll save that for when we get there), but rather, for those of you who want Leyland gone – what level of success would cause you to change your mind about Leyland. And will you be willing to forego future complaints regarding JL if he can get to that level?