Monthly Archives: October 2012

2012 Season, 2013 Season, Hot Stove

Your Early 2013 Off-Season Thread

92 Comments

I’d love to write a long piece to recap all the fun we’ve had over these past several weeks, and to celebrate the historic season by Cabrera and what could be another Cy Young entry for Verlander. But I don’t think any of us have forgotten that, and this picture is more reflective of how we feel (at least about baseball for now).

To be honest, I moved my MLB.com and Freep apps off of my home screen on my cell phone today; signifying the unmistakable end of the 2012 baseball season. Dragging an MLB logo into a little digital trash can seemed like a proper ending.

It may be a few weeks before Coleman or I throw up another post, so I thought I’d leave you with a some DTW housekeeping notes, and then a few thoughts to carry us for a bit

1) I’d like to add another regular game poster (or two) for next season. I really liked it when billfer filled the blog with though-provoking commentary on issues outside of the game posts, and I’d like to give that a go if we can get some help on the game posts. Post on here if you’re interested and I’ll reach out to you.

2) I think that the site earns a few bucks from advertising, but I’m certain that billfer still pays for a portion of this out of pocket. There’s a good chance that I’ll ask for some donations in the coming months. Keep an eye out.

3) Thank you everyone for your input, feedback and patronage. DTW is the most acute Tigers’ community around.

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On to the Roster…

Free agency courting started when Cabby stood there like a house by the side of the road Sunday night (taking his cue from the entire lineup), and signings can start after midnight ET on Friday. A quick look at the Tigers’ Free Agents:

Free agents: DH/OF Young, RHP Sanchez, RHP Valverde, C Gerald Laird.

Young is gone. Valverde is gone. I think each will end up with decent offers elsewhere.

Good chance the Tigers resign Laird.

Sanchez will be very interesting. Smyly looks great, he’s under control, and it sure would be nice to have a lefty in rotation. But Sanchez was fantastic down the stretch and may have finally found it. Sanchez will get great money elsewhere, so it’s a matter of how much the Tigers are willing to spend. I expect the Tigers to make a serious play for Sanchez – you can never have too much pitching.

Club options: RHP Dotel ($3.5 million, $500,000 buyout), SS Jhonny Peralta ($6 million, $500,000 buyout).

Yes and…I don’t know. I’m not a huge Peralta fan, but there’s not a lot out there. Now, remember that VMart is back next year, that will help the offense. Since we’re not going to get better defensively at either corner, I’d be willing to sacrifice Peralta’s bat (it’s not bad for a SS) for a SS with better defensive range.

Arbitration eligible: C Alex Avila (1st time), OF Brennan Boesch (1st time), RHP Phil Coke (2nd time), RHP Doug Fister (1st time), OF Austin Jackson (1st time), OF/IF Don Kelly (2nd time), RHP Rick Porcello (2nd time), OF/2B Ryan Raburn (3rd time), RHP Max Scherzer (2nd time).

I’d expect the Tigers to make nice offers to Avila (thank goodness he’s eligible this year, and not last), Coke, Fister, Jackson and Scherzer. I bet that Ricky P gets into arbitration (such an interesting  process, Tigers staff show up with charts and graphs which advance the notion that Porcello is a terrible pitcher), and I think they let Kelly, Boesch and Raburn go. Kelly could find a spot as the 25th guy on the roster, but personally, I’d rather that be Berry. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Boesch turn into a decent player somewhere else, but I definitely think it’s time for him to move on from Detroit.

Gonna be a very interesting few days, keep an eye on the comments for updates from our community.

2012 Season, Playoffs

Game 2012 Playoffs.13: Giants at Tigers

46 Comments

Delmon Young was asked what the Tigers are going to do to change their luck: “Like sacrifice a chicken or something? We’re not going to do that.”  (@beckjason).

Well that seems reasonable.  Not that anyone has suggested any better ideas.

Delmon also states the painful truth when he says that “we haven’t hit all playoffs,” not just against the Giants.

And yet in some ways, this is the team we have seen all season. They may have averaged 4.48 runs a game, but seldom did they score 4 runs; they were more likely to put together a run of 1 or 2-run games, then a run where they bombed the other team.

This is a feast-or-famine offense, nothing average about it.

The base running/base coaching issues, the sloppy play in the field, the inability to advance runner, the ill-timed GIDPs, the waste of brilliant starting pitching…these are all things so familiar to Tiger fans this year.

And yet that does not tell the story of the 2012 Tigers either; these Tigers, with all of these flaws, won their division, and played their way into the World Series.

They are a streaky team, having a bad streak at the worst time. But a new streak can start anytime.

As Justin Verlander tweeted this morning: “History is life’s greatest teacher and if it’s taught us anything it’s that nothing is impossible.”

Every season ends sometime, even for the winners. The players will pack up and head off to wherever they spend the winter; Octavio Dotel will buy some nice shoes; some players will be back, some won’t; management will be back at work on creating the 2013 version of the Detroit Tigers.

But it really is too soon–if nothing else for those 40,000 plus great Detroit Tigers fans holding tickets to One More Game. Here’s hoping the boys come through for them.  And while we’re at it…the Giants fans are great fans as well.  Let’s give them another game! What could be more fun than extending the series to Wednesday, for the team in the Halloween colors and costume beards.

Your Win One for the D Lineup: (Update: Avila scratched with right forearm soreness. Kelly is backup catcher).

 

1. Jackson, CF
2. Berry, LF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Dirks, RF
7. Peralta, SS
8. Avila, C. Infante, 2B
9. Infante, 2B Laird, C

2012 Season, Game Post, Playoffs

Game 2012 Playoffs.12: Giants at Tigers

99 Comments

4 games to go.

I distinctly remember the off days leading up to the ’06 series. I was watching John Kruk (on ESPN) during the Cardinals/Mets series, and someone asked him who his pick would be to win the NLCS. Kruk just laughed and said something to the effect of “does it matter? Detroit’s going to win the whole thing.” What a great feeling that was. And how quickly it dissipated after game 4 in Detroit.

I think we all felt that way leading up to Wednesday’s game, even in spite of the long off days WS stats. But now the stuff has hit the fan…check this out:

Of the 52 World Series to see a team go up 2 games to zero, 41 of those teams leading have hung on to win the series. Further, only one team out of the last fifteen trailing 0-2 has triumphed over their opponent. The Tigers are 0-2 in WS when they started 0-2.

From what I’m reading, many of you want to blame Leyland, but honestly, I just don’t see it. Here are my thoughts (just my opinion, feel free to counter):

  • Game 1 is on Verlander. He gets lauded like an ace, he gets paid like an ace and he dates like an ace. He needs to pitch like one. To pin that one on anyone else is ridiculous. I don’t expect him to pitch a shutout every time out, but he needs to get through 6 or 7 and give the team a chance to win.
  • Game 2-  I actually agreed with Lamont’s decision to send Fielder based on where the ball was, and the moment in the game. At worst it’s a 50/50 call. I don’t want to release him for the blown decisions all season long, but I don’t think Lamont/or Leyland is to blame for game 2. You blame the bats or credit the Giants’ pitchers, but I don’t know what different managerial decisions Leyland could have made. If you want to question playing back for the double play, that’s fine, but the Tigers are an above average offensive team. We can’t be scared of a run.

But let’s move on.

I don’t want to talk about the rest of the series, I want to talk about one game. Let’s be honest, tonight is a must win.

The Tigers will have their work cut out for them against righty Ryan Vogelsong. Vogelsong returned to MLB in 2011 after 3 years in Japan. His 2011 campaign was good enough to land him an All-Star spot, and in 2012 he went 14-9 with a 3.37 ERA, .242 BAA and 1.23 WHIP. He throws a low to mid-90’s fastball (4 seam and 2 seam), along with a slider, curve and change-up. One of the greatest reasons for his improvement has been his K rate, which is 6.74/9 for his MLB career, but was 6.96/9 in 2011, and 7.5/9 for 2012. He’s striking out 8.52/9 this postseason.

Speaking of the postseason, he’s been phenomenal, posting a 1.42 ERA and a .89 WHIP covering 3 starts and 19 innings. His splits are pretty routine for an above average righty, and he walks about 3 per game. Oh yeah – he had a streak of 16 consecutive quality starts earlier this season.

Anibal Sanchez will need to bring his best stuff tonight. I like where his head is right now:

“We need to start over,” … “We need to forget what happened in San Francisco. I know we’ve got the talent. That’s why we’re here.”

Sanchez has the physical capabilities, and I have been impressed with his composure. Plus, he’s 3-1 in 5 career starts versus the Giants. Blanco is 4-7 off of Sanchez, and Pence is 6-18. Sandoval is 1-6 with 0 HR.

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Here’s why we win tonight:

1) The Tigers were 22-8 at Comerica to close out the season and are 4-0 at Comerica in the postseason.

2) Andy Dirks is in the lineup and covering left field.

3) We’re simply too good to lose 3 in a row.

Tonight’s Back in the Series Lineup

1. Jackson, CF
2. Berry, LF
3. Cabrera, 3B (1-for-5 off Vogelsong)
4. Fielder, 1B (0-for-3 off Vogelsong)
5. Young, DH (1-for-3 off Vogelsong)
6. Dirks, RF (0-for-3, 2 K’s off Vogelsong)
7. Peralta, SS (1-for-2, 1 walk off Vogelsong)
8. Avila, C (0-for-1, 2 walks off Vogelsong)
9. Infante, 2B (7-for-11 off Vogelsong)

2012 Season, Playoffs

Game 2012 Playoffs.11: Tigers at Giants

92 Comments

Well, there are two ways to look at Game 1 of the World Series. One is that SF beat Detroit in every aspect of the game: pitching, relief pitching, fielding, hitting, lucky bounces (there wasn’t much significant base running). The other side of this is that it is only one game, regardless of how badly Detroit was beaten.

Well, there is actually a 3rd aspect.  This World Series opened up in eerily similar fashion to the 2006 World Series:  the Tigers with a long layoff (5 days this year, 6 in 2006), Justin Verlander gets shelled, the Tigers are beaten handily, and…well let’s hope it isn’t the same “and.” (One difference is that so far there has been no infield Clown Show, although Delmon Young is always an adventure in LF).

(By the way it is becoming clear that Justin Verlander is just NOT the same pitcher with extra rest).

Speaking of Delmon, he apparently has gone viral as they say (and figures it would be DY), throwing the pitching staff (i.e. Verlander) under the bus (the proverbial one, even Delmon hasn’t gone there yet): “Offense? We were down 4-0 quick, so you can’t blame the offense,” said Young. Except that the offense, as was the case many times this season, disappeared, and, as was the case many many times this season, disappeared against the ol’ Crafty Lefty.

Even Cabrera jumped on the under-bus chucking.  When asked what made Zito so effective he answered “The run support.”

C’mon guys! I just posted this big thing yesterday about how one of the remarkable things about this team (and Leyland’s leadership) was the lack of in-fighting, the real camaraderie where everyone had each other’s back. So just cut that out.

A longer-term issue to watch in the series: the Tiger bullpen.  Starting a pitcher short (in order to keep WS Mascot Ramon Santiago on the roster), the bullpen now has a certain Large Potato one doesn’t not dare to use.  Prediction: if the series goes beyond 5 games, Max Scherzer will appear in later innings.

On a random ex-Tiger note, a very nice piece about ex-Tiger Aubrey Huff is here.

Random Prediction:  Doug Fister will get a hit.

Random Prediction 2: Pablo Sandoval, as difficult to walk as Delmon Young, will nonetheless draw a walk tonight.

Your Series-Evening Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Infante, 2B
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, LF
6. Peralta, SS
7. Garcia, RF
8. Laird, C
9. Fister, P

2012 Season, Game Post, Playoffs

Game 2012 Playoffs.10: Tigers at Giants

62 Comments

4 games to go.

What a tremendous season:

AL Central Division Champs.

AL Division Series Champs.

AL Pennant.

Triple Crown Winner.

Perhaps another Cy Young winner.

But you know what? It’s not enough. The D deserves more.  And we’re gonna get it.

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Now, as I’m sure you have all see, there is an abundance of Tigers media out there right now. It’s starting to consume my life, to be honest. But we only get a max of 9 days of this, so I’m just gonna fight through it. I do, however, want to point out a touching ESPN.com story on Jim Leyland, and one on CNN SI about winning the title for Mr. I. If you can spare some time in-between the hundreds of other articles out there, check ’em out.

The Tigers advance to the World Series for the 11th time in franchise history – with 4 wins in ’35, ’45, ’68 and ’84. I’ve only been around for the ’84 series, but all I remember from ’84 is the kick-ass place-mats from Elias Brothers. Yes, I just bid on those. If the Tigers win again, I’ll buy whatever place-mats Big Boy puts out for 2012.

So on to tonight’s game.

Barry Zito, who still has another year left on his massive 7 year contract that pays him roughly $18M per year, climbs the mound for the Giants. Since signing that tremendous contract, which at the time was the largest contract ever given to a pitcher, Zito has been a tremendous disappointment. Until this year he had not posted a winning record with the Giants, and has still yet to post a sub-4 ERA. Over the years Zito has morphed from a hard throwing lefty with two great out pitches (curve & change) to a finesse pitcher who rarely tops 87 and looks to work the corners and fool the hitters. Today, he throws a few different fastballs and his curve and change in roughly equal proportions.

In 2012, Zito went 15-8 with a 4.15 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, walked 3.42/9, and only struck out only 5.57/9. Bochy’s decision to go with Zito for Game 5 of the NLCS looked to be more of a long-shot than anything, though his masterful 7.2 IP, 6 H, 0 ER effort may have sparked the Giants to the NL pennant. But all in all, he’s a mediocre pitcher who will try to out think the Tigers (remember that Kenny Rogers had quite a bit of success doing this for the Tigers in the ’06 playoffs).

The Tigers haven’t hit that well in the postseason, though they are hitting better than everyone else. DY and Peralta look to be locked in, and Fielder and Cabrera could each carry a game on their own. Not much history v. Zito, but Cabby is 2-8, Fielder is 3-18, and DY is 2-3.

Verlander takes the ball perched as the best pitcher in baseball (if you believe the pundits, stats, fans, other players, etc.). This will be JV’s 12th  career postseason start, and 3rd in the World Series.

The Tigers lineup is as expected, other than Avila in against the lefty Zito. But Laird is 3-15 off of Zito, and Avila has caught all 3 of JVs postseason starts this year.

A few notes:

– Buster Posey was the best hitter in baseball against lefties this year –  .433/.470/.793.

– The vast majority of the predictions out there pick Detroit.

– DY plated all four game winning RBIs in the Yankee series – making him the 1st player in MLB history to do that. Heck, 4 game winning RBI in any single post-season series is an MLB record.

Your Game 1 Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Infante, 2B
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, LF
6. Peralta, SS
7. Garcia, RF
8. Avila, C
9. Verlander, P
Let’s…go…Tigers!

2012 Season, Managing & Strategy, Playoffs

A Public Apology to Jim Leyland

23 Comments

I was wrong (again…so I think). On September 27th, prior to game 156, I posted that this would likely be Leyland’s last regular season game in Detroit. Now I’m certain he’ll be here next April.

As intolerable as Leyland’s idiosyncrasies, tendancies and hunches are, it is these same foibles that have him in his 2nd WS as a Tiger in 6 years. Take that in for a minute.

If you take a close look, it’s really the positives that emerge from his faults (as we see them) that have the Tigers playing for their 5th World Series title.

He’s loyal to his players, almost to a fault. Every single one of us has either written, said, or thought “why is ______ still playing?” Likely all 3, and likely multiple times. So how do guys like Peralta and DY, who had career low years, respond? By leading the offense and winning ALCS MVP, respectively, of course. Heck, Phil Coke seemed destined for the island of misfit toys next to Charlie-In-The-Box and the spotted elephant when he couldn’t get lefties out in the 6th inning. Now he’s striking out Raul Ibanez with the deadliest slider you’ll ever see on a 3-2 count.

His lineups are crazy…but he gets everyone involved, and keeps players fresh. In the playoffs, we had key contributions from guys like Garcia, Kelly and Worth. Kelly scored a key run, Garcia set Tigers pinch-hitter records, and think about that play Worth made in game 2 of the Oakland series. Santiago doesn’t make that play; Peralta certainly doesn’t. Thank goodness Worth was ready to play.

His bullpen management could politely be called stubbon and is a constant source of derision on the DTW. But let’s credit him for loosening up in the NYY Series, even if it was a game too late. He could have easily, and likely justifiably, used Valverde in game 4, but he stuck with Coke, in a move that I think foreshadows the World Series – go with Coke, or the hot hand (if it’s someone else).

He’s an emotional guy, which likely explains his seemingly non-rational decisions. But that emotion forges a bond with his players, and as hard as Mitch Albom tries to fabricate it, you won’t see a better moment than the one we witnessed when he pulled Cabby in the season-ender after Cabrera had clinched the triple crown.

About a month ago, I posed a question on here and asked how far would JL have to advance for you to want to bring him back next year. I said 1 series, which he’s eclipsed. Several of you commented that no matter what you wanted him gone next year. Has anyone else changed their mind? A recent Freep poll concluded that 70% of respondents want JL back. Where do you stand now?

One final thought:

“Sometimes I look around the stadium and I get a tear in my eye,” Leyland said. “I wish I didn’t show it. But to see those people waving those towels? To see them so happy? I truly believe the game impacts their lives.”

He’s talking about us.

2012 Season, Playoffs

Waiting In The World Series On-Deck Circle

17 Comments

Just a few thoughts while we wait patiently to see if Detroit will have a World Series rematch with St. Louis, or if the Tigers will take on the Giants.

Regardless of who the other half of the World Series matchup is, Detroit will begin the series Wednesday on the road. The blame for that falls on none other than Justin Verlander (although one could make a case for blaming Bud Selig), who laid an egg in his All-Star start and gave home field advantage to the NL team.  I imagine he is in for some good-natured ribbing.

If St. Louis beats SF on Sunday, the 2012 World Series will be the first ever in which two teams with under 90 regular season wins face each other.

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And because Wednesday’s game is in the NL park, our ALCS MVP DH will have to find a new gig; Leyland confirms the plan is to play Young in LF in Game 1.  This may cut down on Quintin Berry appearances.  It is worth noting that Q-Berry hit .314 (11-for-35) with a HR and 5 RBI in Interleague play.

Young will get a chance to practice his fielding, um, skills on Sunday and Monday: Jim Leyland, having experienced the 2006 World Series where the Tigers came out flat after having 6 days off, decided to try something different this time around, and is bringing players from the instruction league in for some scrimmage time.  My advice to the scrimmagers:  bunting, lots of bunting (those who remember 2006 will understand).

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Speaking of Leyland, Dave Dombrowski has publicly proclaimed:  Jim Leyland is welcome back.

Here is Leyland talking about the Yankee sweep.

Gene Lamont got less love:  Boston seemed uninterested in Lamont this time around in their managerial search (Farrell appears to have the job, although Toronto will have to be compensated).  Lamont says the Red Sox would have been better off if they had gone with him last time around.

And just for fun, let’s review some of the numbers from the Yankee series:

  • The Tigers swept the ALCS without ever trailing, joining the 1984 Tigers as the only teams to do so.
  • The Tigers became the first team to win 5 straight postseason games against the Yankees
  • The Tigers are the only team in the AL to be undefeated in posteason series vs the Yankees (3-for-3), and their 10-3 record gives them the best winning percentage of any franchise.
  • Delmon Young became the first player to have the game-winning RBI in all 4 wins of a postseason series.
  • The starting staff finished with a series ERA of 0.66, the 2nd best ever in a best-of-seven series (the 1966 Orioles had 0.61 against the Dodgers).
2012 Season, Game Post, Playoffs

Game 2012 Playoffs.9: Yankees at Tigers

70 Comments

ALCS, Tigers 3, Yankees 0.

One more ho hum brilliant Justin Verlander performance, and the Tigers have the champagne on ice ready to celebrate their 2nd world series appearance in the Leyland/Dombrowski era, and at home again.

Not that there aren’t plans to keep the bubbly for another day if necessary: with CC Sabathia on the mound, the Tigers aren’t thinking the  ALCS is over.  Sabathia is coming off of a Verlander-like 4-hit complete game win in his last outing against the Orioles, the Tigers have struggled against lefties (especially Fielder with his wan .739 OPS against lefty starters), and it’s hard to sweep any series against anyone, much less a playoff series against the Yankees.

And Nature is furrowing her brows upon the party; rain may end up postponing the event.

Still, broom sales in the Motor City have been brisk.

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Verlander wasn’t the only hero last night.  Delmon Young continues to be a pain in the Bronx, hitting hitting his 5th career home run in 8 career playoff games against the Yankees.  And he even added a dig at Yankee stadium after the game: “I knew I hit it hard enough, but we weren’t in Yankee Stadium, so I had to wait an extra 30 feet for it to land.” (Jason Beck twitter).

And Phil “Not the Closer” Coke recorded his 2nd consecutive postseason save (who is the last Tiger pitcher to do that?). Not that he didn’t have a bit of trouble, but his strikeout of Ibanez made up for it.

In the words of Mr. Coke himself, “I kind of felt like I might have gone a little unconscious as soon as I posted it up and let it go.”

More fun with Coke, the Disgruntled Former Employee of the Yankees here.

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So, we here at DTW don’t have to be as careful as the Tiger players, and can indulge in such things as figuring out who we would want to face in the World Series.  I haven’t spent the time (yet) to work out what the best matchup is, and am split on the non-rational aspects of the question:  I lived in Giants territory for a long time, and have many Giants-fan friends, and yet a rematch of 2006 seems awfully appealing.

What do the rest of you think?

Stat of the Day: Delmon Young vs NY in 2011 playoffs: .316, 1.170 OPS, 3 HR.  Delmon Young vs NY in 2012 playoffs: .308, 1.203 OPS, 2 HR. Should the Tigers sign Young for next season in case they play the Yankees again?

His lifetime postseason numbers: 2.39, .817 OPS. He’s hardly Mr. October…it’s just the Yankees.

Today’s Player of the Pre-game:  Gerald Laird. Gerald Laird? Yes, Gerald Laird. In 28 PAs against CC Sabathia, Laird has hit .417, been on base at a .500 rate, and has hit a HR and 2 doubles, for a tidy 1.125 OPS.  Picking up Laird was one of the better minor moves of the offseason, and it would be nice to see him get back-to-back World Series rings.

Today’s CC Riding Lineup

  1. Austin Jackson CF
  2. Omar Infante 2B
  3. Miguel Cabrera 3B
  4. Prince Fielder 1B
  5. Delmon Young DH
  6. Jhonny Peralta SS
  7. Andy Dirks LF
  8. Avisail Garcia RF
  9. Gerald Laird C
2012 Season, Game Post, Playoffs

Game 2012 Playoffs.8: Yankees at Tigers

54 Comments

2 more to the WS, 6 more to a championship.

How’s everyone doing out there? Feeling pretty good?

I sure am. I don’t think I can get enough of the MLB Network these days, though Dan Pleasac breaking down Paws’ YMCA dance did seem like they had run out of things to discuss.

Game 3 tonight in the D, Phil Hughes v. Justin Verlander. My prediction is 5-2 Tigers. But I do have a few concerns.

Concern #1) The lineup shakeup. Rodriguez and Swisher have been very easy outs – a combined 3-15 with 0 XBH. Gardner, especially at the top of the lineup, could be the spark the Yankees need. Remember, he was 7-17 in last year’s ALDS.

Concern #2) The Yankees are the Yankees. They won an AL best 95 games this year, and their 804 runs scored were 2nd in the Majors (Texas 808). That’s 98 more runs than the Tigers, or .6 more per game. Cano will get a hit at some point in time.

Concern #3) Leyland goes with his gut. Hughes’ reverse splits are ridiculous (.211 BAA, 2.32 ERA v Lefties, .308 BAA, 6.54 ERA v Righties), yet Leyland stacks the lineup with lefties. Who knows what else he may do tonight.

Concern #4) It can’t be this easy, can it? I mean, JV goes to 3-0, the Tigers up are 3-0, with 2 games left at home?

But here’s why we do win:

1) Phil Hughes isn’t that good. After a rough April and May, Phil Hughes showed glimpses of the front line starter the Yankees thought he could be. He went 4-1 with a 2.67 ERA in June, and 2-2 with a 3.09 ERA in July with a combined 1.06 WHIP and 58 Ks in 68 IPs against only 16 walks. But he regressed a bit in August as his BAA went up and Ks went down, and then blew up in September with a 5.19 ERA. For the season he was 16-13 with a 4.23 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. He had a great outing against Baltimore last week, allowing only 1 ER in 6 2/3 in a game 4 no-decision (Os won in 13). He faced the Tigers twice this year, pitching a complete game gem on June 3 when he allowed only 1 ER and struck out 8, and then was pounded for 8 hits and 4 ER in 4 1/3 on August 7th. Cabrera is 9-22 with 4 HRs off of Hughes, and Jhonny Defender is 10-20

2) The Tigers will hit again. Other than Jhonny (.852), no one has a playoff OPS higher than .732.  This won’t last.

3) Justin Verlander. JV is 1-0 with a 5.02 ERA against the Yankees with 17 Ks over 14.1 IP in 3 career post-season starts, but I expect him to be much better tonight. He struck out 11 in each of his first 2 playoff starts, and his .75 WHIP is topped only by his .56 ERA. Opposing hitters are batting .130.

4) I like our bullpen. Fangraphs posted a long piece yesterday which states that the Tigers’ pen really isn’t that bad, and concluded that it is likely mismanaged. The author took a particular liking to Al Al. Get in line. Phil Coke was phenomenal on Sunday night, allowing only 1 hit and throwing a ridiculous 23/28 strikes over 2 innings in saving game 2. Coke joins Guillermo Hernandez (you may know him as Willie) as the only pitchers in Tigers post-season history to register as 2+ inning save. The entire pen should be well rested tonight, though I’d be surprised to see Coke go more than 1 or 2 batters. (Note that Leyland hasn’t said whether Valverde will be used in a save situation tonight.)

Remember, as good as we feel about JV tonight, if the Yankees can eek out a win, they’ve got CC Sabathia going tomorrow, and they might be feeling that 2-2 is right around the corner. So let’s not take anything for granted.

A few notes:

– ARod and Swisher are out, Chavez and Gardner are in. This is Gardner’s 1st start since April 17th. Rodriguez was 4-6 off of JV this year, but on a 0-18 streak against righties.

– JL has made the post-season 7 times in 21 years of frustrating fans.

– Marcelo Carreno is the PTBNL in the Jeff Baker trade from August 5th.

– WS tickets go on sale tomorrow morning. They are only good if the Tigers win 2 more games.

Tonight’s 3-0 Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Berry, LF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Dirks, RF
7. Peralta, SS
8. Avila, C
9. Infante, 2B

2012 Season, Playoffs

Playoff Off Day

10 Comments

A few notes for today:

– A Tigers starter hasn’t allowed a run in 4 games. ESPN’s Christina Kahrl wonders how quickly the Tigers pitching can dispatch the Yankees.

– Joe Girardi went on and on about instant replay after the loss. Jim Caple of ESPN says the Yankees need to stop whining, and reminds us of the blown calls that have greatly benefited the Yankees in recent years, oh, and that the Yankees were shut out. I was particularly fond of the subtitle which read “Complaining about an umpire’s blown call when you don’t score any runs is weak.” Selig says that replay next year will include foul/fair calls, no word on out calls. I, like Jim Leyland, enjoy that human element. If you can stand any more on the subject, Buster Olney was

– Jeff Seidel makes a case that we need to get behind Valverde if we’re going to win a WS.

– Jhonny Peralta is playing the best defense of his life.

– Swisher had his feelings hurt by some of the fans in RF on Sunday night; funny, though I don’t think you can blame Swisher for Jeter’s injury.

– Nice piece today by Lynn Henning on Coke.

 

2012 Season, Game Post, Playoffs

Game 2012 Playoffs.7: Tigers at Yankees

60 Comments

ALCS, Tigers 1, Yankees 0.

Well, that was certainly exhausting, and it seems so soon to pick it up and do it all over again.  And I’m just speaking of the fans; imagine how draining that was for the participants.

Well, the big topic of last night’s game among many, is the potato in the room, which can no longer be ignored. Despite all of the “who could have predicted this” commentary last night on the TV broadcast, those of us who have been following the Tigers could have, and did predict that Valverde in the 9th was trouble.

In the past, Leyland has always supported his closer, closed ranks, and said, hey this is our guy.  When an exhausted and bleary-eyed Leyland said in the post-game interview that he needs to talk to his staff before he would comment on the closer situation, you knew this time was different.

Apparently the Tigers are going to go with a bullpen by committee approach for now. Although he still refers to Valverde as his closer. Although he won’t be closing today. In other words, we’ll have to watch and see. Valverde isn’t going away just yet (“Jose Valverde is sitll a huge part of this team”), but it is unclear what his role will be from here on out.

The Valverde implosion was so dramatic that is easy to forget that once again Joaquin Benoit was hit and hit hard (Austin Jackson with the save!), and it would not be hard to imagine Leyland going to Benoit in the 9th inning, so don’t put away the antacids just yet (although I am predicting Alburquerque for today).

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And don’t let the 9th inning meltdown distract from what was one more brilliant starting performance by Detroit, and a good showing by most of the bullpen. In fact Tiger pitching held the Yankees scoreless for 11 total innings yesterday.  Doug Fister fought through a string of bases-loaded situations, fought off a line on his pitching wrist, and came up with just enough strikeouts to blank the Yankees over 6 1/3 hard-fought, gutsy innings. (In fact when Fister escaped three bases-loaded jams he became the first to do that to the Yankees in their 375-game postseason history, in case you’re keeping track).

Benoit was scary, but Phil Coke may have had his best outing of the season, Octavio Dotel was solid after the Valverde meltdown (and may be the closer-in-waiting), and young Drew Smyly showed that he was up to the big stage, calmly putting down the Yankee lefties.  So all-in-all, the Tiger pitching, as predicted, has been the key to Tiger success in this series.

Today they hand the ball to Anibal, who has a short and inglorious history facing the Yankees: 7 runs over 7-plus innings in a 12-8 loss on Aug. 8.

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From the Yankee perspective of course, the Tiger bullpen implosion pales in comparison with losing Derek Jeter, whose season is finished after fracturing his ankle fielding a Peralta gounder. Jeter will be replaced by Jayson Nix, who hit .243 with 4 HRs and a .690 OPS.  What may be irreplacable is Jeter’s leadership, and expect even more attention to focus on Alex Rodriguez in the wake of Jeter’s loss.

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Stat of the Day: The Tigers are 1-0 this postseason when billfer comments on DTW.

Today’s Player of the Pre-game:  Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera has faced Yankee starter Hiroki Kuroda 9 times, with 2 HRs and an OPS of 1.667.

Today’s Stealing-Home-Field-Advantage Lineup:

  1. Austin Jackson CF
  2. Quintin Berry LF
  3. Miguel Cabrera 3B
  4. Prince Fielder 1B
  5. Delmon Young DH
  6. Andy Dirks LF
  7. Jhonny Peralta SS
  8. Alex Avila C
  9. Omar Infante 2B
2012 Season, Game Post, Playoffs

Game 2012 Playoffs.6: Tigers at Yankees

185 Comments

4 wins away from the WS. 8 wins away from a championship.

A few weeks ago, I asked everyone how far would the Tigers have to advance in the playoffs for you to want to bring Leyland back? I said I’d be happy if he went deep into the ALCS, and it looks like there’s a good chance that happens…what was your response? Be honest now.

Honestly, I like our chances in this series. Our starting pitching has been remarkable since early September. The four starters posted a sub 1.50 ERA in the ALDS. Yes, it was against the Oakland Athletics, a team that batted .238 with a .714 OPS during the regular season. But that explains a 3.25 or 2.75 ERA, not 1.50. Fister, Sanchez, Verlander and Fister vs. Pettitte, Kuroda, Sabathia and Hughes.

And as bad at the Tigers bats seemed against the As (I can’t remember more than 5 RBIs on hits), they were actually the best offense of the 4 ALDS teams. Cabrera, who has reached base in all 16 of his post-season games with the Tigers, won’t be shut down like that again. Once he gets going, the rest of the guys will too.

Now, the bullpen is an issue. Or the back of the bullpen is an issue. I think that Leyland will go with Benoit and Valverde until they each blow another one, and then I think he’ll stick with them in their designated innings, but with Dotel looking over their shoulder. Not what I want him to do, but that’s what I think he’ll do.

Would you classify Tigers/Yankees as a rivalry? I certainly wouldn’t, but 3 playoff match-ups in 7 years isn’t bad. Pretty legit that the Tigers have been to the ALCS 3 times in the last 7 years, which speaks to the talents of Verlander and Santiago. Actually, since 2006, only the Yankees and Tigers have made 3 ALCS appearances. Selective sampling, I know, but perhaps Dombrowski and Leyland deserve more credit than we give them.

On to tonight’s game – 8pm Eastern on TBS. Fister v. Pettitte.

Andy Pettitte came out of hiding in May (I guess Clemens finally accepted the retraction) to pitch phenomenally, if only on a limited basis, for the Yankees this year. Pettitte started 12 games and finished with a 5-4 record, a 2.87 ERA, and a 1.14 WHIP. That said, he had pretty significant R/L splits, with righties posting a .245 ERA and .681 OPS against .202 and .516 for lefties. In terms of playoff experience, Andy Pettitte is a triple secret black belt. He’s amassed well over a season’s worth of innings, 270, and has an impressive 19-11 postseason record with a 3.83 ERA. Fister has 24 career postseason IPs, and a 2-1 record and 4.13 ERA.

Fister followed up a marvelous September (3-1, 2.34 ERA) with a good start in game 2 of the ALDS. Roughly a year ago he started game 5 of the ALDS in New York, and held the Yankees to 1 ER over 5 innings, earning a W. He may need to go a bit deeper tonight, but I don’t think that nerves will be a problem.

The Tigers were 4-6 against the evil empire this year, 3-4 there, and 1-2 at Comerica. Cabrera (4-12, 2 HR), Peralta (6-16, 3) and Young (11-19) all mash against Pettitte.

A few notes:

– Roster stays the same for the ALCS. Still wondering why Santiago is on there. I guess it’s a 2006 thing.

– If you think that the baseball nation knows anything about baseball, then things are looking good for the Tigers. According to an ESPN poll, 61% of sportsnation thinks the Tigers will win, and the majority feel that the Tigers have the better hittiers and starting pitching.

– For those of you who are in to Fangraphs (like I am), here’s a nice long run down on the series.

– Due to an internal glitch, the Nationals sent their fans a WS pre-sale notice this morning, just hours after the most heartbreaking loss in franchise history. So you know when people say “well, it can’t get any worse than this?” They’re wrong.

Tonight’s Tone Setting Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Infante, 2B
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Young, DH
6. Peralta, SS
7. Dirks, LF
8. Garcia, RF (my pick to click)
9. Laird, C