Game 2013.53: Tigers at Orioles

The Detroit Tigers (29-23, clinging by .5 to first in the AL Central, losing streak at 3) travel to Baltimore and Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (30-24, third place AL East) in a three-game series. Local temperatures will be in the 90s for the day game Saturday, while rain may affect the Sunday game. Looks like it’s going to be a bit hot and sticky all weekend out there.

Torii Hunter will be giving the first couple games (son’s graduation) and possibly the whole series (elbow contusion after being HBP Wednesday) a miss. No shortage of outfielders to fill in, but it does leave the bench a man short. That can be a problem.

The difference in play, if not result, between the Rangers and the Pirates series is a positive one. Still, it’s abundantly clear that the Detroit Tigers aren’t yet ready to play with the big boys. Maybe that corner could have been turned last night. It wasn’t. Now they face a peer, another good team that can’t quite get it all together. It’s the Series Of The AL Also-Rans. If you think that’s harsh, you must be more satisfied with the prospect of finishing 7th best in the AL (playoffs or no) than I am.

The Baltimore Orioles at a glance are a hitting team; pitching is their weakness. Let’s pause for emphasis on HITTING; the Tigers have faced some good offensive teams, but have not yet seen the likes of this lineup. Five regulars are batting .290 or above, and six have 29 RBI or more. With Chris Davis in there, O’s fans are among the few in the AL who can say “Miguel who?” Not only that, but Baltimore is also speedy (very) and among the best defensive teams in the AL. The key will be jumping on that Achilles’ heel of theirs: Pitching. It won’t be easy. None of their opponents have decisively gotten the best of them (think Tigers v. Angels) thus far. But scoring at Camden Yards hasn’t been a problem for the Tigers the past couple seasons.

Friday, May 31, 7:05 PM EDT: RHP Max Scherzer v. RHP Miguel Gonzalez

Gonzalez wasn’t so hot last July against the Tigers, but he’s had decent outings recently. Max has been quite superb of late, and strikeouts are really the least of it. Much more to Max than Ks these days. Last July, though, the Orioles had their way with Scherzer in Baltimore, and all those bad dudes are still there to face him again.

Saturday, June 1, 4:05 PM EDT: RHP Justin Verlander v. RHP Jason Hammel

Hammel has been good the last couple starts. Against the Tigers last July, he left the game after only 3 innings, having allowed 2 runs and struck out 5. Hammel is the kind of pitcher Jhonny Peralta scorches. Justin is on the rebound from a rough stretch. Last July at Camden Yards, he was dominant in a shutout win. It is no exaggeration to say that Verlander owns current Orioles hitters. Not a lineup that will faze him in the slightest. Cause for worry?

Sunday, June 2, 1:35 PM EDT: RHP Rick Porcello v. RHP Kevin Gausman

Gausman is a rookie making his 3rd start who’s been hammered the first two. “Bad boding” for Sunday, as Billfer used to say? Rick is coming off a career start (with no decision) against the Pirates. Last August (at Comerica), Porcello had himself a good game and then blew it in the 7th (Chris Davis 3-run shot). Current Orioles find Rick quite hittable, but we can hope that this doesn’t necessarily mean scoreable-upon.

The Orioles bullpen isn’t terribly imposing, but then neither is that of the Tigers. Matching up either team’s big gun 3-4-5 hitters against bullpens, who’s got the edge? Tigers do. Might want to go light on the Coke, however. Even against lefties Davis and Markakis. O’s have barely seen Smyly and Downs. Often an advantage to the pitcher there.

In what I hope will become a personal tradition, the series-remainder game posts are going to be stat-heavy and comment-light.

Stay tuned or come back for the post-game.

Gimme dat lineup, Coleman-Man….

POST-GAME: Orioles 7, Tigers 5. Tough one to swallow, eh? Things got off to a sunny start in the 1st with Cabrera’s 2-run homer to right off Miguel Gonzalez. Max dodged the fearsome-first-inning O’s with a quiet 1st, but his 2nd was labored and slow. He escaped with only the sac fly allowed, but his troubles continued in the 3rd when Adam Jones connected on a 2-run HR to CF. 3-2 Baltimore. The Tigers followed the good script by coming back to tie it in the 4th on a kind of manufactured run. It started with a Martinez soft single, but through the good fortune of V-Mart getting erased on a fielder’s choice, Peralta came to be standing on 2B when clutch Garcia knocked one through the middle. Scherzer – once again (talk about a script) – righted himself after the rockiness and only grew stronger, retiring his last 16 batters in order and going double-digit with the strikeouts. 8 of those outs were flyballs, some deep, but an out is an out. The Tigers took the lead back in the 5th, loading the bases and threatening to break it open. Give Martinez credit for finding another gear and beating the DP relay to first, thus driving in the 4-3 run, but… but… Garcia gave the Tigers an insurance run and a 5-3 lead in the 6th inning, last one for starter Gonzalez, with a solo HR just over the RF scoreboard. That’s how you put the forth back in the back and forth game, right? Max and Avisail. Victory appeared within reach. Valverde came in for the save in the 9th. I wasn’t nervous. Nick Markakis homered to RF to lead it off. Garcia in RF almost took it away from him, got glove on it and everything. Mistimed leap? Give him an A+ for effort – it was that close. Oh well. 5-4 Tigers, none out and none on. I still wasn’t too nervous. But Valverde got himself in a heap of trouble, before almost getting himself miraculously out of it. Two popouts with men on 1st and 3rd – talk about dodging bullets. The sudden good fortune couldn’t stop now, could it? It could. Falling behind 2-0 on Chris Dickerson, Valverde’s 4th pitch wound up in the right-center field seats for the walkoff.

Kelly gave a rather stark illustration of his good and bad. Weak contact, weak outs, two with a runner in scoring position. But fine, difference-making defense in CF. J.J Hardy and Manny Machado made strong and smart plays on the left side, but Peralta was no slouch ranging far right to keep Jones’s 9th inning hit to the SS-3B hole an IF single rather than the double it might have been. Next play, the fleet Garcia in RF cut off the Davis smash to the gap to hold him to a single and keep Jones from scoring the tying run. Avila Watch: Still pathetic. V-Mart Watch: If you doubt that this guy is a liability who ought to be spending some of his time on the bench, see Innings 5 and 7. It’s been going on all season. Big Swinging Jhonny didn’t help the cause by going down in flames in the 5th, and he was right behind Victor again in the 7th inning rally kill. We can curse Valverde, but those 5th and 7th innings were also What Might Have Been so that we didn’t have to. We might not have had to see him at all. Give the Orioles pen some credit for keeping the walkoff in order. A mix and match of four arms over 3 innings kept Detroit off the board.

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Chris Dickerson, Max Scherzer, Adam Jones
HONORABLE MENTION:  Avisail Garcia, Miguel Cabrera, Nick Markakis, Andy Dirks
NOT SO GOOD: Jose Valverde

Game 2013.52: Tigers at Pirates

29-22, 1st place, 1.5 games up on Cle.

Last night’s game was playing out rather nicely until Sanchez took a sharp detour in the 7th that resulted in a 4 run frame for the Pirates, and a 5-3 loss for the Tigers. The Tigers now find themselves in peril of the dreaded 1-3 series, or a mini-sweep, depending on how you look at it.

Fister looks to right the ship tonight for the Tigers, and himself. Since beginning the season 4-0, he’s 1-2 in this last 5 starts (the Tigers are 2-3) with a 5.20 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. He’s only walking 1.46 /9, so that’s a lot of base hits (and hit batters).

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A few notes:

– Despite the two game skid, the Tigers are second best among all MLB teams in interleague play since 2006, with an 85-49 record.

– Hunter is out of the lineup, which will give him 3 days off for his swollen left elbow. Remember that he’s headed to my neck of the woods for his son’s HS graduation this weekend.

– Some fun with Miggy: Cabrera is tied for the major league lead in hits with 77, and leads the majors in RBI with 59 and average at .368. His 59 RBI are the most by a Tiger since 1916 (that’s as far back as we can remember; he’s tied with Hank Greenberg). Miggy has 11 HR and 31 RBI…in May. Big Cec had 11 HR in May of 1995.  The 31 RBI in a May are the most since D _ _ _ _ _       _ _ S _ _ _ had 34 in May of 1998.

–  Three game set at Baltimore starting tomorrow.

Tonight’s Where’s Austin? Lineup:

1. Infante, 2B
2. Dirks, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Peralta, SS
6. Tuiasosopo, LF
7. Pena, C
8. Garcia, CF
9. Fister, P

 

Game 2013.51: Tigers at Pirates

29-21, 1st place, 2.5 games up.

What a game last night. Hate to lose a close one at home, but props to Pittsburgh.

Grilli was even better than advertised. We always knew that he could throw heat, but that slider was nasty. Cabbie just looked silly, and I still have no idea what Prince was swinging at. I think Cabby is just in a little lull. He can’t dominate for 162, I’m not worried about it.

On a tight schedule today, I’ll have more fun stuff tomorrow.

Let’s go Tigers.

Tonight’s No DH Lineup:

1. Dirks, LF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Peralta, SS
6. Avila, C
7. Infante, 2B
8. Kelly, CF
9. Sanchez, P

Game 2013.50: Pirates at Tigers

29-20, 1st place, 2.5 games up.

Great team win last night. JV was good, not great, and the bats put up enough runs to cover up some poor 8th inning pitching and fielding. Valverde came in and gave up his usual baserunner (who somehow didn’t steal 2nd base – worst advance scouting of all time?), before striking out Andrew McCutchen to end the game. Valverde’s .75 ERA is as misleading as an online dating photo, and last night was a great example of this. Two 3 ball counts in 4 batters, and out of 15 pitches, 14 were fastballs between 90 and 93 mph. No one has done more with less since David Hasselhoff did anything.

That’s 7 wins out of 8 in case you lost track. For all of the shortfalls we tend to notice around here, we owe it to the boys to celebrate a job well done.

Let’s go Tigers.

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Let’s talk for a minute about Alex Avila. I know that everyone is frustrated with his performance (or lack thereof), and many are clamoring for Pena to be the starter. Over the last ten games, Avila is batting .121; Pena is batting .405. Avila is hitting .171 for the year, and Pena’s average now stands at .313. A few thoughts on this.

1) I don’t know that we have a starter right now. They split starts in the Cle and Min series, and Pena played last night. Yes, some of this is match-ups, but the fact that JL is playing match-ups at catcher says something.

2) Avila isn’t going to hit .171 all year. His BABIP is .221. This is significantly lower than the ~.290 that you see around MLB, and much lower than his career .315 BABIP. So his average will come up. But there is reason to worry. One reason why he has a healthier career BABIP than most is because of his power. But that may have gone away. In 2013 he’s hitting more ground balls than ever before (1.60 GB/FB v. 1.20 career average) and his LD rate of 18.8% is the lowest since his first partial season in 2009 (21.6% career). Simply put, he’s not hitting the ball as hard as he usually does.  This is further evidenced by his low ISO (.114) and manifests itself as a lack of XBH. Pena has 1 less XBH (6 to 5) in roughly 1/2 the ABs.

3) Avila has lost his place discipline. He’s not walking very often (9.5% vs. 12.6% career) and he’s striking out more (31.4% vs. 24% career).

4) Other than Porcello, I don’t know how much direction our staff really needs. So any advantage that Avila may provide in that respect, is likely negligible.

5) Nothing in Pena’s history would lead us to believe that his 2013 start is sustainable, and he’s likely too old (31) to have a breakout year.

Thus, in conclusion, I’m not sure what’s wrong with Avila. Either he’s injured, or his swing has changed. But I also don’t think that Pena is the long term solution. So I’d look for a continuation of a liberal platoon, with Avila getting slightly better over time. I used to have hopes that Avila could be a perennial all-star. With his sweet swing and good eye, he seemed to have the right tools. But the peripherals this year point in the wrong direction. Remember – he’s only 26, so he’s got some time. But not much.

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Game two of the home set against the Bucs tonight before the Tigers head to Pittsburgh for another two. If you could only focus on Porcello’s last 5 starts, you’d see a serviceable 2-0 record, 3.24 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 3 QS. Excellent numbers for a #5 starter. Now, for the year, he’s posting a 6.28 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and .299 BAA, which are more inline with the #5 guy in Toledo.

Jeanmar Gomez has been very good this year – 2-2, 2.75 ERA, but not so good against the Tigers in his career – 2-2, 7.82 ERA.

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A few notes:

– Cubs pitchers are slugging .667 in May with 6 doubles, 3 HR and 15 RBI.

– Lots of rain forecast for tonight. May be tough to get this one in.

– AJax is eligible to come off of the DL today; but no word on when he’ll start a rehab assignment.

Tonight’s Series Sweeping Lineup:

1. Dirks, LF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Peralta, SS
7. Avila, C
8. Infante, 2B
9. Kelly, CF

Game 2013.49: Pirates at Tigers

28-20, 1st place, 1.5 games ahead of Cle.

Happy Memorial Day everyone. Thank you Jim Eggers, judpma and any and all vets, active military, those who sacrificed their lives for this great country (baseball and all) and all military family.

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Well, now that the Indians are playing, like, well, the Indians, order has been restored in the Central. For now. (RR watch – 0-3 in his one start v. Boston).

The  Tigers took care of business against Minnesota, with Scherzer capping off the series clinching win by allowing 1 ER over 6 innings for his 7th win this year against 0 losses. Covering his last two games Scherzer, set down 25 batters without allowing a base runner, and 38 batters without allowing a hit. (That’s likely enough batters to cover a no-hitter, unless Dontrelle Willis is pitching.) Avisail’s clutch (can we use that word?) pinch-hit 3 run triple put the game out of reach for the hapless Twins, and the bullpen came in and shut down a Twins team who looked like they had their bags packed early. The final was a 6-1 victory and 3-1 series win.

Today’s early start kicks off an unusual day-night two game set, oddly followed by a two game set against the same team. Interleague.

The Pirates starter is some guy named…Francisco Liriano? FRANCISCO LIRIANO? Where the H did he come from? After 7 years with the Twinkies (he was pretty good pre-Tommy John surgery, remember?), he was flipped to CWS for the stretch last year where he managed a 3-2 record in spite of a 1.52 WHIP. Pittsburgh rewarded him with a two year deal last December, and he celebrated by breaking his arm over Christmas while “closing a door.” Well, not sure if he was “celebrating” but this sounds an awful like “moving boxes” over the off-season. And Zumaya never came back from that one… Anyway, Liriano’s now made 3 starts for the Pirates, and they’ve been pretty good: 3-0 covering 18 IPs. In 2013 he’s posting a 1.00 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and has punched out 25 in those 18 IPs. Liriano was always a K machine – 9.13 career K/9, but it’s his slider now that’s his go to instead of his fastball. Lefties have yet to get a hit off of him in 14 PAs in 2013, and he’s holding righties to a .250 BA.

Here are some not so fun facts about Justin Verlander. He hasn’t reached the 6th inning since May 5th. This is the first 3 game stretch that the hasn’t reached the 6th since…September of 2006. You remember 2006, right?  Tough year…Pluto lost its planethood, Steve Erwin died, JV was 23…  This month he’s got a scary 7.32 ERA and opponents are batting .296 off of him. But, Verlander is 19-2 with a 2.64 ERA vs. the NL in his career, and 7-0 with a 1.29 ERA over the last two season. I’m betting on JV. Things are turning around today.

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A few notes:

– Check out these fascinating Fangraphs articles on Cabrera. The gist of it is that he’s a badass, but you definitely want to read them. I didn’t notice this live, but Cabrera’s 1st home run off of Holland last Sunday was the fastest and lowest trajectory HR this season…Holland initially thought it was coming right back at him. Think about that – for an instant, Holland thought it may hit the pitcher.

– Bruce Rondon is dominating at Toledo – 1 ER in 17 2/3 IPs. He has walked 6, so that’s a concern, but he’s struck out 21 and has a 1.21 GO/AO. Dotel coming back soon too, look for some bullpen shuffling in the coming weeks.

– Good overview of the Tigers top 10 prospects thus far this year.

Today’s Camouflage Lineup (with #’s v. Liriano):

  1. Omar Infante, 2B (1-9, 3 K’s)
  2. Torii Hunter, RF (4-13, HR)
  3. Miguel Cabrera, 3B (9-26, 2 HR, 8 walks, 6 K’s)
  4. Prince Fielder, 1B (3-19)
  5. Victor Martinez, DH (11-24, HR)
  6. Jhonny Peralta, SS (10-34, 2 HR, 6 walks, 13 K’s)
  7. Matt Tuiasosopo, LF (0-5)
  8. Brayan Pena, C (4-13)
  9. Avisail Garcia, CF (0-1)

Game 2013.48: Twins at Tigers

Detroit Tigers: 27-20, 1st Place (.5 ahead of Cleveland).

The Tiger winning streak ended at four last night as the Twins got to Doug Fister for three runs early, and then quieted the Tiger bats for the 3-2 victory.  The big blow was a home run by none other than Joe Mauer, who came to the plate greeted with boos from the Tiger fans for his dastardly spoiling of a perfectly good no-hitter the night before.

Then of course his next at bat brought more booing, and according to Jason Beck Mauer said that Pena told him “they shouldn’t boo you. You got a homer after they booed you.” Well he responded with another hit, which led to more booing, and a Pena response of “No. Stop, stop, stop!”

Speaking of Pena, he did his part with the bat last night, with a 3-for-4 game that raised his average to .328.  Whether his success at the plate lasts or not remains to be seen, but he will be getting a lot more at bats, as Leyland tries an alternating catching mix. “I’m trying to have a little bit of one [day] on, one [day] off just to see if we can get him [Avila] going a little bit.” Avila will be in today with the Sunday Lineup.

*****

Max The Undefeated (6-0) will take the mound looking for the Tiger series win. Max beat the Twins in April, holding them to 3 runs in 7 plus innings, with 10 Ks. And, more importantly, Mauer was 0-for-3 against him.  Scherzer has the 2nd-best run support in the majors at 8.23 per 9 innings, so I am expecting Avila, Kelly, and Santiago to pound the ball today.

Wilkin Ramirez seems to be OK after a frightening collision in the outfield yesterday, but he is out of today’s lineup with a sore jaw.

*****

Today’s Player of the Pre-game:  Hmm, well it was going to be Jhonny Peralta, after his nice day at the plate yesterday (not to mention turning a nice double play). So let’s try Victor Martinez, who takes a try at first. Maybe playing in the field will “get him going.”

Today’s Sunday Special Lineup:

  1. Dirks, LF
  2. Hunter, RF
  3. Cabrera, 3B
  4. Fielder, DH
  5. Martinez, 1B
  6. Avila, C
  7. Infante, 2B
  8. Kelly, CF
  9. Santiago, SS

Game 2013.47: Twins at Tigers

Detroit Tigers: 27-19, 1st Place (.5 ahead of Cleveland). Win streak: 4

“When you pitch a one hitter and the one hit you give up is to a guy with three batting titles, that’s one hell of a performance.” -Jim Leyland

The Tigers re-took first place in style last night. Just 4 weeks after he set a Tiger record with 17 strikeouts against Atlanta,  Anibal Sanchez flirted with his 2nd-career no-hitter with a masterful 1-hit, 130-pitch complete game shutout of the Twins.

Well “flirting” may be too mild–it was an all out seduction, and he almost had the thing, until the one guy in the Minnesota lineup most likely to break up a no-hitter came up, and Mauer ended the drama with a solid single up the middle. With his pitch count over 120 and the no-hitter gone, Sanchez smacked his glove at what might have been, stepped back on the mound, and struck out the rest of the side.

Sanchez, Leyland, and some of the Tigers give their reactions to Sanchez’ performance.

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After last night’s game, and with Anibal’s 17-K performance still in memory, I began hearing a little chatter about how Sanchez is the real “Ace” of the staff. Wasn’t it just a few days ago that Scherzer was the one that was maybe the real Ace now? (And at times in the past one could even hear that said about Doug Fister). I’m not sure how useful the concept of a staff Ace is; I suppose it does matter when it comes to naming the Opening Day starting pitcher, and when setting up a playoff rotation, otherwise I am not sure. At any rate, I am sure of this: when you have a starting rotation such that you have guys who can compete with Justin Verlander for the title of Staff Ace, your pitching is going to take you a long way

*****

Last night was a special performance. Today the Tigers celebrate a special team, the 1968 Tigers.  on the 45th Anniversary of their World Series Championship team.

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Today’s Player of the Pre-game:  Andy Dirks. Dirks continues leadoff duties. Andy is on a 7-for-17 streak, and is 3-for-7 with a HR off of The Pajama Man

Today’s Lineup:

  1. Dirks, LF
  2. Hunter, RF
  3. Cabrera, 3B
  4. Fielder, 1B
  5. Martinez, DH
  6. Peralta, SS
  7. Pena, C
  8. Infante, 2B
  9. Kelly, CF

Game 2013.46: Twins at Tigers

Detroit Tigers: 26-19, 2nd Place (.5 behind Cleveland)

At this particular moment in time the best hitter in baseball walks the earth in a Tiger uniform with a big number 24 on the back.

Once again, for the 6th time in the past 4 games, Miguel Cabrera cleared the fence and led the Tigers to a 4th consecutive victory (well, that was the 3rd–tonight is the 4th), a come from behind 7-6 victory over the Minnesota Twins.  The impressive thing about the recent Cabrera home run barrage is that they have been mostly to center, on pitches that have been spread around the strike zone.

For an impressive graphic depiction of how well Miguel Cabrera covers the plate with power, take a look at this fascinating piece on Fangraphs, where Drew Sheppard takes 6 Cabrera home runs and combines them into one composite gif. You will not watch it only once.

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Of course Cabrera didn’t win the game single-handedly. For the fourth consecutive game, Prince Fielder knocked in a run following a Cabrera walk. He may have popped up in every other at bat in the game, but if Fielder continues to hit consistently following Cabrera walks, things will work out very well indeed.

The bottom of the order continued to contribute (I’ll throw temporary leadoff man Omar Infante in that group); in fact the Tiger 7-9 hitters are now 3rd best in the AL with a .718 OPS, and 2nd with a .268 BA. Really the only weak spot in the lineup right now is the 5th spot, and if Martinez regains his form this team will plate a lot of runs.

The icing on the cake for last night’s game was the quick and efficient job by Jose Valverde to close the game out. This was by far the best outing by Papa Grande v. 2.0; he had both velocity and location–Pena barely moved his glove. This is the first time this season I felt like this Valverde thing might actually have a chance of working.

*****

Today’s Player of the Pre-game: Omar Infante. Infante just keeps hitting. His 3-for-5 night last night brought his average up to .323, and his Comerica average up to a ridiculous .429. Cabrera, eat your heart out (a mere .402). A couple times on base in front of Cabrera will put the pressure on the Twins.

Today’s First-Time-For-This-One Lineup:

  1. Dirks, LF
  2. Infante, 2B
  3. Cabrera, 3B
  4. Fielder, 1B
  5. Martinez, DH
  6. Peralta, SS
  7. Avila, C
  8. Kelly, CF
  9. Garcia, RF

Game 2013.45: Twins at Tigers

Detroit Tigers: 25-19, 2nd Place (.5 behind Cleveland)

After a brief, but lengthy (the two games took 8 hours and saw almost 800 pitches) two-game sweep of the Central-leading Indians, the Tigers return to Detroit for four with the Twins, followed by a 2-and-2 series with the surprising (and Penguins-Jersey-Wearing) Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Twins have been struggling, to put it mildly. The Twins have lost 8 in a row, during which their starters have an ERA of 8.41 and have lasted into the 5th inning only twice.

As if things weren’t bad enough, the Twins lost 3rd Baseman Trevor Plouffe for the series to a concussion suffered while breaking up a double play.

Once again, weather should be an issue.

*****

Series Summary:

  • THU 5/23 7:08  Rick Porcello vs Scott Diamond
  • FRI 5/24 7:08 Anibal Sanchez vs Samuel Deduno
  • SAT 5/25 4:08 Doug Fister vs Kevin Correia
  • SUN 5/26 1:08 Max Scherzer vs Mike Pelfrey

*****

Today’s Player of the Pre-game: Miguel Cabrera. OK, that was easy. No home run he hits all season will be as amusing as the one he hit last night off of Hill. Well, and Bourn also. I happened to be listening to the Cleveland feed, and the announcers were saying they had never seen anything like that happen before, and could only think of Canseco’s header as a comparison. Hey guys! Look in Right Field! There is a Mr. Raburn there who has seen one even stranger.

Today’s Tui-Avi-Torii Lineup:

  1. Infante, 2B
  2. Hunter, RF
  3. Cabrera, 3B
  4. Fielder, 1B
  5. Martinez, DH
  6. Peralta, SS
  7. Tuiasosopo, LF
  8. Pena, C
  9. Garcia, CF

Avisail gets another opportunity, as the return of Austin Jackson looms, and Brayan Pena gets back-to-back starts.

Game 2013.44: Tigers at Indians

24-19, 1.5 in back of Cleveland, JV on the rebound vs. Jimenez the Menace coming up.

Well, what do you know – Tui got a start against a righty. Nothing to show, took the ball for a ride the first time and struck out twice after that, but I’m still all for it.

Is there a chance that this might not be the last year for Jhonny Peralta at SS? With Detroit, I mean.

Say what you will about Don Kelly, but when was the last time you saw him have a truly lousy at-bat? It certainly doesn’t happen often. You can say much the same for Andy Dirks and Matt Tuiasosopo.

Let’s keep up the pressure on the “let someone split time with V-Mart at DH” front. I think it’s helping.

Is it mere coincidence that Marcus Thames and Matt Tuiasosopo have… oh, never mind. It’s an empty thought, you might say. Free Matt Tuiasosopo!

Last May 22, the Tigers were 20-21 and about to meet the Indians for the first time, in Cleveland. They would be swept in three, an insult that kicked off what were probably the darkest days of 2012, days which saw them tumble to their nadir of 25-31. Things have gotten better since.

Y’all come back now for the post-game, y’hear? We’ll crack open a Vernor’s and listen to some Bob Seger. Justin Verlander’s dominant performance will call for some kind of celebration…

POST-GAME: Tigers 11, Indians 7. A wild one. Not back and forth as the score might seem to indicate. The Tigers never trailed, and yet it seems like they came from behind, doesn’t it? Given a quick 2-0 lead, Verlander was in trouble after striking out the first two, and the 37-pitch 2nd inning was downright painful to watch. He looked absolutely lost. How only one run scored, we may never know. Jiminez had troubles of his own, no command, and the Tigers sent 9 men to the plate in the break-it-open 3rd. He was lucky to leave after 4 down only 6-2, and then Detroit greeted David Huff rudely in the 5th with a bottom of the order rally that plated three and featured the marvel of a CS (Infante) that scored Kelly from 3B. Verlander had righted himself for the 3rd and 4th, apparently after some off the field consultation with Jeff Jones, and with a 9-2 lead, we were settling in comfortably, weren’t we? But the other Justin showed up for the 5th, and three batters in, Carlos Santana was rounding the bases. 9-5. With only one out, the rain began to pour down. Oh no – not even in the books yet! After an hour delay, Verlander managed to retire the side. Smyly came on in the 6th and threw the same first pitch he always throws. Unfortunately, Yan Gomes was waiting for it, and it ended up in the stands. Not a good inning for Drew, and afterwards it stood at 9-7 Tigers. After Putkonen had pitched a very reassuring 7th, again came the rain and another long delay. When play resumed, it was before a mostly empty ballpark. In the 8th, with Dirks on, Miggy hit one of his deceptive fly balls that just kept going and going. CF Michael Bourn had it at the wall – and then he didn’t, because it had bounced straight out of his glove and over the wall! 11-7. Sweet insurance. The life went out of the Indians and really the game itself at that point. Benoit and Valverde did creditable work to finish the game against the lifeless Indians batters. I think Jose’s little celebration of a strike two (Santana) had to do with getting a swing and miss on something other than a fastball.

Hunter’s “error” on Raburn’s “single” – gloved and dropped flyball it took effort to go back for – is mostly notable we because we expect more from him. It did cost a (tying) run that might have been crucial some other game. Bourn in CF, despite the freak play on the Miggy HR, was busy and stellar defensively throughout the game. Don’t look now, but solid-but-ordinary Peralta made a great play on the Gomes “IF single” that was actually an out. Quite a few notable defensive plays in the game overall, Tigers getting their share or more. Pena was really stepping and throwing lively in the “dead 9th” to run down the 3rd strike that got away and nail Santana at 1B.

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Miguel Cabrera
HONORABLE MENTION: Brayan Pena, Victor Martinez, Michael Brantley, Michael Bourn, Carlos Santana, Luke Putkonen
NOT SO GOOD: Justin Verlander, Ubaldo Jimenez, David Huff

DTW Book Club v1

This could fail miserably…but here goes.

I found this gem on Amazon a few days ago (under “Books you may like” what does this say?).

I’m only a few chapters into it, but it is FANTASTIC, and I think that several of you would really enjoy it. Here’s the write-up from Amazon:

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An ex-Wall Street trader improved on Moneyball‘s famed sabermetrics to place bets that would beat the Vegas odds on Major League Baseball games–with a 41 percent return in his first year. Trading Bases explains how he did it. After the fall of Lehman Brothers, Joe Peta needed a new employer. He found a new job in New York City but lost that, too, when an ambulance mowed him down as he crossed the street on foot. In search of a way to cheer himself up while he recuperated in a wheelchair, Peta started watching baseball again, as he had growing up. That’s when inspiration hit: Why not apply his outstanding risk-analysis skills to improve on sabermetrics, the method made famous by Moneyball–and beat the only market in town, the Vegas betting line? Why not treat MLB like the S&P 500?In Trading Bases, Peta shows how to subtract luck–in particular “cluster luck,” as he puts it–from a team’s statistics to best predict how it will perform in the next game and over the whole season. His baseball “hedge fund” returned an astounding 41 percent in 2011– with daily volatility similar to funds he used to trade for. Peta takes readers to the ballpark in San Francisco, trading floors and baseball bars in New York, and sports books in Vegas, all while tracing the progress of his wagers.

Far from writing a dry, do-it-yourself guidebook, Peta weaves a story that is often humorous, and occasionally touching; the topic may be “Big Data” but it’s as entertaining as a Bill Simmons column. Trading Bases is all about the love of critical reasoning, trading cultures, risk management, and baseball. And not necessarily in that order.
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He’s already brought up “run efficiency” which is something that we discussed on here a few weeks (or months?) ago. If anyone picks it up, let me know and we can discuss.

Game 2013.43: Tigers at Indians

The Detroit Tigers (23-19) travel to Cleveland (28-15) for a two-game set and a veritable rematch in several ways beyond the obvious: The Indians are hot (still); the Tigers are coming off two consecutive losses to another “red team” (again), and; the pitching matchups are also reruns. This time, the Tigers find themselves looking up at the first-place Indians in the standings from 2.5 games back and are just trying to keep pace rather than pull away.

Tuesday, May 21, 7:05 PM ET: RHP Max Scherzer vs. RHP Corey Kluber
Wednesday, May 22, 7:05 PM ET: RHP Justin Verlander vs. RHP Ubaldo Jimenez

There is a good chance that thunderstorms and rain forecast for the Cleveland area may affect both games.

Last time around, the Tigers hit LP Kluber early and often. Avila and Miggy were the stars of a 15-hit attack that didn’t stop, even against the Indians bullpen. The Indians managed to wring 4 runs out of 5 hits (and no walks) against WP Scherzer, who seemed within reach of a complete game after a strong 8th. High hopes after that 10-4 win. The next day, Verlander set the tone for his 5-inning outing by walking in a run in the 1st, while Jimenez shut down the Tigers. Detroit battled back, with little thanks to their own bullpen, against Cleveland’s to make it a thriller, but two late rallies died courtesy of Tuiasosopo and (final out) Miggy. JV might want to study up on Max’s game plan this time around. Or just pitch better.

NEWS

Evan Reed has been optioned to Toledo and Luke Putkonen again called up. Not a move against Reed so much as a move for Putkonen, aided by technicalities. No complaints about Reed, who looked pretty good. Nor about Putkonen. Keep making those moves until it comes together.

From mlb.com:

[Miguel Cabrera] became the first player in Major League history to go 4-for-4 with three home runs, five RBIs and four runs scored in defeat.

Remarkably, the Tigers also lost — 5-4 to the Athletics — in Cabrera’s first career three-homer game, and he is the eighth player in Major League history to belt three long balls in defeat more than once. It happened to Johnny Mize four times and to Babe Ruth, Ernie Banks, Dave Kingman, Glenn Davis, Joe Carter and Sammy Sosa each twice.

TALK

I’m as quick to shout “clown show” as anyone, but if the shoe had been on the foot of the Rangers in the 11-8 loss, we’d probably be talking more about how the Tigers capitalized or made it happen than “lack of baseball fundamentals” on the part of Texas. The clutch sinking liner (that some guy misplayed into a double), the great bunt (that baffled the other team’s infield), etc.. That said, a whole lot sure did go wrong for one game. Or one series, for that matter. It’s really too bad that it overshadowed Miggy’s monster game Sunday night.

First 10-10, then 19-11, now 23-19. Ups and downs. Seems like we’re on the down elevator, until you realize that 13-9 is a .591 win %. All in how you look at it. Also, those past 22 games have seen a number of hot starts turn into slow fades (Jackson, Hunter, Fielder.. and dare I say Verlander?), and yet the team hasn’t really faded. Miguel Cabrera’s Triple Crown start is all the more remarkable for its consistency through 25% of the season. It’s really quite amazing.

A sustained 13-9 pace would take the Tigers to 88-64 with 10 left to play. If Miggy were to finish the year at his subpar (ha ha) 2012 clip, he would finish at .352, 47 HR, 152 RBI.

What’s up with Victor Martinez? I don’t think you can call it “rust” at this point. More like decline. Bat speed? Not seeing the pitches like he used to? Temporary or the first sign of a permanent decline? What to do? Well, you can hardly bench a full-time DH. That would be to exchange low value for no value. But it would be nice to see more ABs in Victor’s stead from guys who are hitting. Like maybe every other day. I’d like to see Tuiasosopo and Dirks in the same lineup once in a while, for a while. It’s simply not the case that Tui needs to be protected from RHP or Dirks from LHP.

While there are practical reasons Avisail Garcia can’t stick around when Austin Jackson returns, it occurs to me that if the idea is to give him regular ABs… how about starting now? Having an OF who can play all three positions with aplomb – that would be Don Kelly – is a good thing. You can bat .200 under these circumstances and still be valuable to a hitting-laden team like the Tigers. That’s still no reason to start Kelly over Garcia in the brief time Garcia will be up. Is it? Is Garcia not the better hitter? There have been some hiccups in the starting rotation lately that I suppose you could call a bit of a “correction.” All the more reason to help the offense rise to the occasion and carry the team for a spell.

Would more playing time for Pena and less for Avila help? Would it hurt? It’s hard to watch Avila at the plate sometimes.

The Tigers have demonstrated an admirable “pitch or switch” policy so far. Villareal, Alburquerque, Rondon – all relegated to Toledo until further notice, and rightly so. Coke and Dotel were, in my view, “optioned” to the DL. Maybe it’s time for hit or sit, at least for guys in 42-game slumps. I don’t know. Getting a little restless.

I haven’t heard a word about when or if Octavio Dotel will return. Have you? To be honest, I kind of forgot he was on the team.

Stay tuned for the post-game. Refreshments will be served.

POST-GAME: Tigers 5, Indians 1. Thanks. We needed that. The game started with a familiar feel. 1st inning, good hitting opponent with speed gets things cooking against a good Tigers starter (as if there were another kind). Then Max Scherzer turned in the finest Tigers pitching performance of 2013 to date. Sorry, Anibal, but those Braves were hacking. These Indians were not. After 2 hits and a walk in the 1st, Scherzer recorded the better part of a perfect game – 22 consecutive batters retired. Still, it was 1-0 Cleveland until the 6th, courtesy of a fine performance by Corey Kluber, who was outdueling Max until he was done in by the long ball. I had a feeling the Tigers would break through, and Andy Dirks tied it with a solo shot to RF. A Torii Hunter double later, Miguel Cabrera made it look easy (like you or I could do it) to reach for a ball low in the zone and knock it out of the yard to dead center. Has anyone ever made it look that easy? 3-1 Tigers. At this point the bullpen worries start to creep in. But Scherzer only grew stronger, striking out the side in the 8th, and again there was hope that Leyland might let him stay on for his first MLB complete game. Barring that, there was prayer for insurance runs, and the Tigers did not disappoint in the 9th. It started with an Avila walk, and ended with 3-hit Victor Martinez taking a called 3rd with the bases loaded, but in between there were clutch knocks and RBIs from Dirks and Fielder (delivering after the IBB to Miggy, thank goodness, after a near-repeat of his 5 strikeout Mariners game). 5-1 Tigers, Valverde on the mound in the bottom of the 9th. Bourn singles, steals 2B. Have we seen this movie before, or something like it? Valverde. How does he do it? Nothing but a fastball, nothing that works, anyway. No denying that the velocity is back, however. Two popups and a deep flyball later, it was over, two Indians stranded.

There was a fine catch in LF by Tuiasosopo. There was a good read and good baserunning by Avila going from 1B to 3B on the Infante single, good for an important 9th inning run. I’m not sold on the lack of range case against Peralta this season, but the Bourn single up the middle against Valverde was an argument in its favor. There was a funny instance of Prince trying to get the call on an inside strike (called 3rd) by sticking his elbow out. Didn’t work.

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Max Scherzer, Andy Dirks, Miguel Cabrera
HONORABLE MENTION: Victor Martinez, Corey Kluber, Cody Allen