23-18, 2nd place, 1.5 games behind Cle (who have now won 4 in a row)

Anibal Sanchez did his best Justin Verlander last night, and promptly got booted in the 3rd inning after allowing 11 base runners and 5 ER. The Tigers were never really in the game, and the best offense in baseball was tamed again for the 3rd straight night.

Against an opponent whose number we seemed to have for a while, the Tigers are now 6-12 versus the Rangers since October of 2011. And it feels even worse than that because in those 12 losses, the Rangers have reached double digits against the Tigers 5 times. Think about that – roughly every 3rd game against the Rangers has been a blowout loss. The Rangers are averaging nearly 6.5 runs per game against the Tigers during the time span (116 to 76). I think it’s safe to say that the Rangers have our number these days.

So Doug Fister climbs the hill tonight to take on Derek Holland on Sunday night baseball. Holland is enigmatic, to say the least. The young lefty has been brilliant at times, but he also gets a lot of flack for a seeming lack of concentration on the actual game part of playing baseball. Holland’s success this year (3-2, 2.93 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) can partly be attributed to his low HR rate (just 2 all year – .33/9) which is unsustainable over the long run. But Holland is a hard-throwing lefty with a good sinker and a great slider, and is also issuing a career low 1.79 walks/9. Tonight won’t be easy.

Of Fister’s 8 starts this year, 6 have been quality. He rebounded nicely last week against Houston (remember, it was Houston) after his shortest start since 2011 against Washington the previous time out. Fister has been thumped by the Rangers in the past, to the tune of 14  ER and 19 hits (5 long balls) in 9 innings.

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A few notes.

– This is the first time since 2003 that two Tigers’ starters didn’t make it through the 3rd inning in a series.

– In today’s the apocalypse is upon us note – the Tigers’ uni’s were beat out by the Orioles’. Blasphemy. This has really upset me.

– Prince Fielder is in a slump (I’m sure you knew this). Over his last 10 games he’s 6-36 with 1 HR. Last night’s RBI was his first in 7 games. He’s 0-3 career versus Holland, though lefties are hitting better against Holland than righties (.773 OPS v. .582 for righties).

I don’t feel good about it, but man do we need a win tonight – off-day tomorrow.

Someone please post the lineup later, as I’m headed to a BBQ (game will be on).

23-17, 2nd place, .5 games behind Cle (won earlier today)

Wow, what a game last night. Spectacular effort by Porcello (that’s now 24 Ks in his last 25 IPs – 3.24 ERA and a .96 WHIP…pretty salty), and the bullpen was almost as good. Luckily, I was at a graduation celebration last night and didn’t have to stomach Valverde in the 9th. Kudos to those of you who stuck it out.

Rangers starter Justin Grimm was the AL rookie of the month for April after going 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, but it’s been pretty grim since then. In May, he’s 0-3 with a 7.02 ERA. This month his walks are up, the BAA has skyrocketed to .300, and he’s not getting very many groundballs (.88 GO/AO). Note, his BABIP in April was .362, so it looks like he really did simply have a heck of a start, and perhaps now things are starting to even out. Though the Tigers have been known to struggle against unknown struggling rookie guy.

Sanchez will be looking for his 8th straight quality start tonight. Remember when JV had a streak like that? Sanchez is currently 4th in the AL with 66 Ks and 5th with a 2.05 ERA. 

Very hot and a jet stream out to right tonight. Sanchez has allowed 1 HR all season…the Rangers lead the AL in HR. Grimm has been giving up a lot of flyballs.

A win tonight would be huge. I’d love to have a shot at taking the series.

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A few notes:

– The Tigers have 407 hits so far (leads the AL) and 403 pitching Ks (leads all of MLB).

– May 25th will be the 25 year celebration of the ’68 team.

Tonight’s Lineup:

1. Dirks, LF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Peralta, SS
7. Avila, C
8. Infante, 2B
9. Garcia, CF

22-17, 1st place, tied w/Cle.

Yu gotta be kidding me. That was awful. Worst inning of Verlander’s career.

Let’s move on to the next game as soon as possible.

We’ll need little Ricky P to step up tonight or else we’ll be in danger of a very nasty 4 game series. (1-3 always feels like getting swept to me, and 2-2 on the road feels like a win).

The Rangers will throw out rookie Nick Tepesch. Tepesch is 3-3 on the year with a 4.03 ERA and respectable 1.26 WHIP. He strikes out enough (7.10/9) and doesn’t walk a lot (2.36/9), but he doesn’t have great stuff. Here’s a portion of a good scouting report on Tepesch from early April: Tepesch has a four pitch mix of fastball, cutter/slider, curveball and changeup, and while he’s not an overpowering pitcher, he’s got a shot at having a solid major league career because he can throw his pitches for strikes and battle hitters even when he’s not got his best stuff. He’s not the type of high ceiling guy who gets prospectphiles’ pulses racing, but he’s a solid under-the-radar prospect who is likely going to get five or six starts at the major league level to show that he belongs.

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A few notes:

– Leyland may be changing up the bullpen rotation? No way.

– A QS tonight would be 4 in a row for Porcello…he didn’t do that once last year.

I’ve got to get on the road this afternoon, so someone please post the lineup when it’s out.

22-16, 1st place, .5 games up.

The Tigers are 6-1 v. the Astros, outscoring them 55-19. (They could be 7-0 with a margin of 59-19 if Tiger stadium weren’t so big…) They are 16-15 versus everyone else. So how good are the Tigers, really? Well, the numbers, as posted by Coleman yesterday, are pretty darn good. Exceptional to be honest.

But only 1 game above .500 against everyone else? Why could that be?

Here’s a theory (other than the bad bullpen…3-6 in one run games…but we already know that one): their run differential is entirely misleading, because the boys are blowing out teams, and then not winning close games. The Tigers are posting a meager .526 OPS in “Late/Close” games (as defined by MLB.com stats). Contrast that with their .815 OPS when the team is ahead (4th in the majors). Their X W-L is 25-13. So they are either incredibly unlucky, and the wins will start to pile up, or they are over-achieving in meaningless situations. I recognize that I’m only pointing out symptoms and not solving any problems here, but the numbers don’t lie.

Anyway, so I heard there’s a game tonight…

You’re not going to see more excitement about a May matchup than tonight’s Verlander v. Darvish setting. Everyone is talking about it down here (though incredibly – 10,000 seats are still avail; but I can’t open a sports page or turn on sports radio with them talking about it). Many think that these two teams are two of the best in the Majors (you’ll need insider). It’s going to be a heck of a 4 game set.

I’m headed over to the Ballpark in a few hours, hopefully to have a beer with OTFiM.

Yu Darvish has quickly established himself as the Rangers’ ace, and he has become must watch TV around here. First, there was the opening night near perfect game. Then,there was what has to be the most viewed gif in FanGraphs history (it’s pretty cool, check it out). Darvish is striking out hitters at a record-breaking pace of 13.7/9 and sporting a cool .91 WHIP in 8 starts this year (6-1, 2.73 ERA). What makes Yu so unbelievable is that he’ll throw 7-8 different pitches, from virtually the same arm angle and with what looks to be the same arm speed. Don’t be surprised to see an eephus pitch tonight.

Now, JV ain’t no slouch (he got his own cool gif treatment a few weeks back), but he’ll have his work cut out for him against a Rangers team that is tied for a major league best 12 games over .500, has won 7-10, and recently took a series from division rivals Oak at Oak.

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A few notes:

– Al Al (and his 16.32 K/9) down, Evan Reed up. I really have no idea who this guy is, so look for him to enter (which would be his major league debut) in the 7th in an incredibly high pressure situation. Was anyone else shocked to see Leyland call out Albuquerque yesterday? Seems like JL never does that.

– I think we’ll have a new closer within 2 months.

Tonight’s I’ll Be There lineup is brought to you by the Jackson 5:

1. Dirks, LF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Avila, C
7. Peralta, SS
8. Kelly, CF
9. Infante, 2B

Detroit Tigers: 22-15, 1st Place (1.5 ahead of Cleveland)

Well, as I promised, here comes more about where the Tigers are after two “innings” of the 2013 season, or 2/9 of the season if you prefer.  It may be a bit unwieldy for a game post; perhaps you may wish to save it for a rainy evening in front of the fireplace with a glass of port (or is it brandy?) and your Alsatian (or is it an Irish Wolfhound?) by your side.

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Pitching

In a nutshell:  so far the starting pitching has been very good, the relief pitching not so much, and the overall pitching better than last season. Surprisingly though, the number show that the relief pitching has been better than last year (I’ll pause to let that sink in). And don’t bother trying to hit a home run against Detroit.

• 2013 Runs per game: 3.81 (3rd)
• 2012 Runs per game: 4.14 (5th)

• 2013 ERA: 3.42 (1st)
• 2012 ERA: 3.75 (3rd).

The Tigers have been incredibly consistent with about .4 unearned runs per game. The defensive efficiency this season (the percentage of balls in play converted to outs) is .678. Last season it was .678.

• 2013 WHIP (Walks and Hits per Innings Pitched: 1.204 (3rd)
• 2012 WHIP (Walks and Hits per Innings Pitched: 1.291 (8th)

• 2013 HR/9 Innings: 0.5 (1st)
• 2012 HR/9 Innings: 0.9 (1st)

I included this because it is something you rarely hear mentioned, but the Tigers have a long run of being difficult to take out of the park.  (Some of that, of course, is due to playing in park that is a bit home run unfriendly).

Splits by Starter/Reliever:

• 2013 Starter ERA: 3.24 (1st)  2013 Reliever ERA: 3.76 (10th)
• 2012 Starter ERA: 3.76 (2nd) 2012 Reliever ERA: 3.79 (10th)

• 2013 Starter WHIP: 1.171 (3rd)  2013 Reliever WHIP: 1.273 (9th)
• 2012 Starter WHIP: 1.280 (6th)  2012 Reliever WHIP: 1.315 (12th)

So yes, the reliever WHIP (which is a better measure for relievers than ERA) has dropped a little from last season. And when you look at the Walks part of the WHIP, you see the Tigers have given up the 4th most (they were 9th last season). When you add in that Tiger relievers lead the league in reliever strikeouts (they were 11th last season), you realize that the “H” part of the WHIP is not a problem. They are not getting hit, they are just walking too many. Either way, as a group they are performing a bit better than last season.

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Hitting

In a nutshell: the Tigers overall rate at or near the top in most hitting categories, notably in On Base Percentage. So far the big weakness in the lineup–just like last season–is at the DH spot.

• 2013 Runs per Game: 5.42 (1st)
• 2012 Runs per Game: 4.48 (6th)

If anything, these numbers just make me feel like last year’s team was a bit underperforming–with a Triple Crown winner in the lineup, they only managed 6th in runs per game?

• 2013 OPS: .784 (3rd)
• 2012 OPS: .757 (4th)

The interesting part of the OPS numbers is looking at which component the Tigers excel in:

• 2013 On Base Percentage: .350 (1st)
• 2012 On Base Percentage: .335 (2nd)

If you were to listen to the common chatter you would come away with a picture of the Tigers as an aggressive, free-swinging team that strikes out a lot, and never works pitchers for walks. But the numbers say:

• 2013 Walks: 3rd most
• 2012 Walks: 4th most

• 2013 Strikeouts: 4th fewest
• 2012 Strikeouts: 4th fewest

This is not to say they are not aggressive. When they aren’t walking they appear to be swinging away: their Pitches Per Plate Appearance has been among the lowest in the league (I’m not sure how that works with all the walks). Notably, it has gotten higher this season:

• 2013 PPA: 3.86 (9th)
• 2012 PPA: 3.75 (13th)

Some of that is due to Victor Martinez, who is seeing a career high, and team-leading 4.13 PPA. Hmm, perhaps Victor should start hacking away. At any rate the Tiger DH this year has an even worse OPS than last season:

• 2013 DH OPS: .635 (12th) (Martinez .593)
• 2012 DH OPS: .687 (12th)

Oh, and one last thing. Where have all the double-play balls gone?:

• 2013 GIDP: 28 (10th)
• 2012 GIDP: 156 (1st)

*****

Well, all that aside, this afternoon the Tigers go for the sweep of the 7-game season series with the Houston Astros. Max Scherzer will take the broom to the mound for Detroit, while the Astros will try to confuse the Tigers with a Houston pitcher named Dallas.

*****

Today’s Player of the Pre-game: Omar Infante responded to yesterday’s POPG nod with a 2-3 night. I know a good thing when I stumble upon it. It’s Omar leading off today as Player of the Pre-Game, he of the ridiculous and league-leading .426 home field batting average.

Today’s Tui-Avi-Torii Lineup:

1. Infante, 2B
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Peralta, SS
7. Tuiasosopo, LF
8. Pena, C
9. Garcia, CF

Detroit Tigers: 21-15, 1st Place (.5 ahead of Cleveland)

Last night was not only the 5th consecutive game that the Tigers have won from the Houston Astros, but it was the 36th game of the season, which means it was the end of the 2nd inning, to revive a Billfer tradition, which was inspired by Bill Hoff.  If you divide up a 162-game season you get 9 18-game segments, which means each 18 games is something of a metaphorical inning in the season-long game.

Let’s look at how the Tigers have done so far this season, as compared to last:

2012:

• 1st Inning:  10-8
• 2nd Inning: 8-10
• Innings 1-2: 18-18

2013:

• 1st Inning: 9-9
• 2nd Inning: 12-6
• Innings 1-2: 21-15

An optimist would see an improvement over the early part of last season’s division winning pace. A more skeptical sort might point out that almost a third of the “2nd inning” has been against the Houston Astros.

At any rate, the Tigers should be doing even better than they have, even with the team the way it is: the Tigers’ Pythagorean record at the moment is 24-12 (courtesy of baseballreference.com), which is a fairly large deviation from their actual 21-15 record. (The Pythagorean formula, developed by Bill James, attempts to measure what a team’s record should be, based on runs scored and runs given up. A team above or below their Pythagorean line is a team that has been lucky or unlucky…or perhaps unusually well or poorly managed).

More 2nd inning numbers to come in tomorrow’s post.

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One way in which the Tigers have been lucky is in their lonely Disabled List. Kevin posted an interesting and informative New York Times link that ranks the MLB teams in order of how much salary is being spent on players on the DL, with a ticker on daily costs for each team. Currently the Yankees are at $429,600.  Make that $429,723. Make that $430,124…

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Today’s Player of the Pre-game: Omar Infante. Infante is bumped up into the 7th spot, as Kelly continues to patrol the Jacksonless center field, and Ramon gets the rare start at shortstop. Infante is a perfect 4-for-4 in his career against Astros’ starter Lucas Harrell.

Today’s Hey Ho Let’s Go Lineup:

1. Dirks, LF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Avila, C
7. Infante, 2B
8. Kelly, CF
9. Santiago, SS

Detroit Tigers: 20-15, 2nd Place (.5 behind Cleveland)

The Tigers slipped down into 2nd place after losing 2-of-3 to the Cleveland Native Americans, and even though they didn’t win the series there were some things to like about how they played (and things not to like).

The big news for today though, is that the Tigers put center fielder Austin Jackson on the 15-Day DL with a sore hamstring, and called up outfielder Avisail Garcia to take his spot (A-Gar is not in today’s starting lineup).  I am guessing this means we will be seeing a lot of Don Kelly: I doubt Garcia will be playing center (although he has in the minors). Dirks in center and either Tui or A-Gar in left will happen at some point. They also have the option of a Tui-Torii-Avi configuration against lefties.

The bright side of Jackson on the DL, if it can be called that, is that it means that his hamstring was probably a lot worse than we thought, and may be the cause of his precipitous decline at the plate. Let’s hope a fully-recovered Jackson returns from the DL in his early-season form.

*****

It is natural to overemphasize the importance of individual events and individual games; it is part of the nature of a daily blog and game post commenting. Perhaps the most damaging effect of the Cleveland series though is that Cleveland is hot, and they are beginning to believe. The Tigers hardly need that.

The bad outing by Verlander is of less concern; bad days are bound to happen to even the best pitchers. It was bad though: he even walked in a run. Not that he has never done it before–he has. Two times. Yes, in over 1.600 innings pitched he has walked in a total of 3 career runs. (Valverde, by comparison, has 5 in only 596 innings).

Speaking of Valverde: not good. He only has one pitch, and can’t locate it. And the first batter he walks takes 2nd free.

Also not good: Victor Martinez. When he was struggling earlier in the season, he was having good but unlucky at bats. Now the line drive outs and warning track flies are being replaced by pop ups, and even more uncharacteristic, strikeouts (5 in the Cleveland series). It will be interesting to see what, if anything, the team does if he hasn’t improved by June.

There were good things though: an offensive outburst on Friday; a late-inning rally on Saturday; a good outing by Rick Porcello, perhaps even better than his line would indicate; continued production from the bottom-of-the-order, especially the continued hitting of the hot bat of Omar Infante (.421 over the last 7 days); a clutch return appearance by Phil Coke. And perhaps most of all, knowing the Houston Astros are on deck.

The Tigers complete their season series with the Astros, after sweeping the four games in Houston. Houston continues to struggle (10-28), and designated one of the starting rotation from the last road trip (Philip Humber). Tonight they go with their staff ace Bud Norris, who at 4-3, 3.40 has literally won half of their games. Detroit hands the ball to Anibal “No Run Support” Sanchez.

*****

Series Matchups:

• Mon May 13 (7:08 pm):  Anibal Sanchez vs Bud Norris
• Tue May 14 (7:08 pm):  Doug Fister vs Lucas Harrell
• Wed May 15 (1:08 pm):  Max Scherzer vs Dallas Keuchel

*****

Today’s Player of the Pre-game: Prince Fielder. Fielder has struck out 6 times in 20 ABs against Norris, but is the only Tiger to ding him for a home run. Fielder goes 1-4 with 3 Ks and a HR.

Today’s Donkey-Time Lineup:

1. Dirks, LF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Avila, C
7. Peralta, SS
8. Kelly, CF
9. Infante, 2B

20-14, 1st place, 1 game up on Cleveland. Hypotenuse game of the series coming up, and it will be for all the marbles. Or at least half of them.

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Get Al Alburquerque out of Detroit. At least for a while. Please. This has gone on long enough. Game 34 was Tigers 6, Indians 4, Tigers Bullpen -3.* The bullpen pooped the bed yet again. What is that – 10 times this season already? Take away the walk-offs – it happens – and it’s still 7 times. (I think. I’ll check it out.) Rather a lot for a team with 14 losses.

* I’m conveniently leaving the Indians pen out of it.

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Danny Worth has been out with a heel contusion for a while, but is close to rejoining the Mud Hens. This is good. We’d all like to see him raise that batting average down there. Along with Quintin Berry. Makes you wonder what’s happened to them. Devastated by not making the big club out of camp? The International League is a pitcher’s league, true, but the numbers on these guys… yikes. Up and down the Toledo roster, the batting numbers are pretty frightening. Only 1B Jordan Lennerton has put up anything halfway decent.

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Even though the Tigers fell short last night, you’ve got to be encouraged by rally after rally in the late innings. 7th, 8th, 9th – they just kept coming. And speaking of encouragement, the good signs for Alex Avila keep coming every now and again. On what looked to be an effortless swing the first time up, he sent a fly to deep CF that chased Michael Bourn back and back and back.

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OK, excluding the walk-off loses, I count (7) games so far where the bullpen has either lost the game outright (1), blown up (3), or let the score slip out of reach (3). While we’re playing the blame game for losses, let’s assign (2) to starting pitching and give the batters (5) (which will include the 3 walk-offs, all in low-scoring games). Come to the bullpen’s defense, someone. I’m sure there is something positive to say. I feel more like being negative after being disappointed by Smyly and Al-Al (and all the more disappointed given the low pressure nature of their latest assignment).

Tigers pitching in the Late/Close split (includes some but not much starting pitching): 11th in the AL in ERA, 10th in BAA, 9th in WHIP. Tied for 2nd (worst) in runs allowed.

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What’s up with Austin Jackson? All the good numbers are going down down down over his last 19 starts (though he still manages to score runs). But there has been some hitting anemia going on in that leadoff spot. It’s not good. While Victor Martinez has actually been worse over that same stretch (that’s right – you have to consider that he’s “coming around” only by comparison to an especially horrid start), AJax’s fade has been more damaging to the team.

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Let us take a moment to recognize the main reason Detroit has won 20 and could “easily” be 25-9 right now, and to congratulate the contributors: The starting rotation. Only 2 stinkers in 34 games. 17-9 with a 3.27 (AL best) ERA, and also the fewest runs overall allowed. Only 11 HR allowed (AL best). Tops in K/9, 3rd best in walks allowed. 2nd in WHIP, and 6th in BAA. Is that wow good? I’m saying it is.

Rick “The Outlier” Porcello takes the mound today, with (individual, positive sense) regression to the mean on his and our side.

POST-GAME: INDIANS 4, TIGERS 3 (10 INNINGS). Quality starts for Rick Porcello and Zach McAllister, but hardly easy going. An exciting one, but also a heartbreaker of a giveaway. The bullpen blows another one, right? Yes and no… maybe. Each team paid for costly mistakes early. 3rd inning, Torii Hunter, yet again, overthrew the cutoff man (and the throw was wide of 3B besides) to allow Michael Brantley to take 2B on a single. Brantley scores as a result. 4th inning, Lonnie Chisenhall’s throwing error on a routine play leads to an Omar Infante sac fly and a Tigers 3-2 lead. Then it became a contest in stranded runners and failed rallies. McAllister, incredibly, with bases loaded and 1 out, retires Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder easily. Porcello gets Asdrubal Cabrera to ground into a bases-loaded, inning-ending 4-6-3 (very sharp play by Infante). Phil Coke gets Brantley to ground into a 2 men on, inning-ending 4-6-3. But then came the 9th, when “closer” Jose Valverde reminded us how things can go when you’ve got nothing but a fastball and can’t locate it, and Darin Downs reminded us that he’s not a shutdown guy, and meanwhile the bats have nodded off completely. Valverde walking Michael Bourn (same as a double, essentially) to lead off the 9th was where the game went irretrievably south. Yes, make no mistake – this one was on the bullpen. No shortage of clutch failure, though, spotlight on Miggy and Prince. Victor Martinez looked absolutely sickly at the plate. Let it be known that Miggy committed 2 more errorless errors at 3B. Best play of the game was Jhonny Peralta to Brayan Pena to gun down Asdrubal at the plate in the 10th. Two outs, no runs in! That should have turned the tide. The pinch-hitting by Mark Reynolds and Bourn won the game for Terry Francona and Cleveland. Meanwhile, Ryan Raburn was 0 for 2 but made a very nice play in RF and another great effort there, more than can be said for Hunter today.

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Mark Reynolds, Michael Brantley, Michael Bourn
HONORABLE MENTION: Rick Porcello, Zach McAllister, Brayan Pena, Yan Gomes, Joe Smith, Phil Coke, Omar Infante
NOT SO GOOD: Jose Valverde, Darin Downs, Victor Martinez, Prince Fielder

20-13, in first place by 1.5 games.

Is this the first Saturday night game of the year? Seems like it.

Phil Coke has been activated, and Luke Putkonen has been optioned back to Toledo. I was thinking Alburquerque was next in line for Toledo, but instead the Tigers may opt for the ever-popular retroactively injured thing next time he struggles with his control.

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Some of my favorite “newfangled” baseball stats are WPA (win probability added) and RE24 (base-out runs or runs saved). They’re all over the place here, and I especially like to look at them in player game logs, the box scores, and the full play-by-plays (scrolling down in the box scores). If you don’t know what they are and mean, well, check it out. You’ll figure it out.

I’m not much for WAR. To me, it’s a fantasy baseball stat, though I’m aware that GMs and agents playing the real-life version of fantasy baseball actually use it. The thing I love about WPA is that it allows you to look at contributions to wins/losses on a PA/BF by PA/BF (plate appearance/batter faced) or game to game basis. It gives you about the most objective “game score” for a player that I can imagine. RE24 is a kind of productivity score along these same lines, though not one tied to win/loss probability based on before/after game situation. WPA and RE24 can be looked at in the aggregate like any other stat, of course, but then you have to consider adjustments for opportunity, same as you would when comparing HR or RBI totals between batters with different numbers of PA. I find them useful in any event, but most interesting as ways to gauge performance in individual games or plays within games. The only drawback I find is that they cannot really account for many significant positive defensive plays, though I suppose you could invent some tweaks to introduce defense as more of a factor. (The difficulty is mainly that it’s hard to quantify “what if?” situations.) So it’s mostly a batter/pitcher kinda thing, the defense being an assumption.

I keep meaning to post some interesting analyses that utilize WPA and RE24, like this one for 2013 Tigers hitters through 32 games, for instance:

WIN CONTRIBUTION PER PLAY (SCORE)

CABRERA +955
FIELDER +512
TUIASOSOPO +487
HUNTER +435
JACKSON +185
KELLY 0
PERALTA -073
INFANTE -167
AVILA -297
DIRKS -306
MARTINEZ -606
SANTIAGO -1481
PENA -1500

PRODUCTIVITY PER PLAY (SCORE)

TUIASOSOPO +188
CABRERA +138
FIELDER +102
HUNTER +65
JACKSON +19
PERALTA +12
INFANTE -13
DIRKS -16
KELLY -58
MARTINEZ -67
AVILA -95
PENA -130
SANTIAGO -178

But each time I try, I collapse under the sheer weight of it all. I doubt that I’ll ever have time in between games to work up the kind of comprehensive yet approachable overview I aspire to. The fun thing about it is that hidden truths are revealed, some of them contrary to what the more visible aggregate stats are telling you. Such as, to simplify greatly: Don Kelly isn’t really “crap,” comparatively speaking (I’m looking at you, VMart), and Doug Fister hasn’t been as good as you might think. Also, looking back on a box score and scrolling down to the “Top 5 Plays,” you may discover that “oh yeah, that was kinda cool” was actually the most significant play of the game in terms of WPA. All in all, it just gives you a broader view of where the positive and negative contributions are coming from. The cool thing about RE24 in a box score is that one number summarizes the productive sum total of every PA or BF. All “1 IP, 0 ER” and “0 for 3″ and”1 for 4” are not created equally.

So check it out.

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Tonight’s “Victor Martinez is available to pinch hit for Victor Martinez” lineups:

DETROIT – It’s the A-team again, behind JV, no less

CLEVELAND – Raburn-less again, go figure

CF Bourn
2B Kipnis
SS A. Cabrera
RF Nick Swisher
C Carlos Santana
DH Giambi
1B Reynolds
LF Brantley
3B Chisenhall

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It appears from the latest forecast, which I seldom interpret correctly, that there may be a rain delay and/or rain early in tonight’s game.

POST-GAME: INDIANS 7, TIGERS 6. Cleveland was hitting Verlander’s fastball at will from the get-go, and Jimenez was just too good. You could see this one going down the tubes on 2 plays: a) Tigers 4th, Miggy and Fielder on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out… Martinez grounds out to 1B, no chance for a score, and then Dirks strikes out way too easily; b) Indians 5th, what starts as a great play by Fielder to step on 1B and then double up Swisher in a rundown ends with Swisher (who soon scores) at 2B on a ridiculous throwing error by Miggy. Then Smyly and Albuquerque crap out, score going from 4-1 to 6-1 Indians. All over, right? NO! VMart starts a sweet 4-run rally that includes a couple good PH at-bats from Tuiasosopo and Pena. Then… the sickening Al-Al lets in an 8th inning Indians insurance run before Downs saves the day with bases loaded. Tigers 8th, and things are cooking until Tuiasosopo grounds into a 2-on, inning-ending DP. With Perez in for the Tribe in the 9th, it’s not looking good until a Swisher error puts Pena on 1B with one out. Hunter delivers a 2-out RBI to make it 7-6 Indians, and suddenly the win seems not only possible, but likely. Because MIGGY is at the plate with men on 1st and 2nd. A truly lousy swing and miss on pitch 2 turns this into a crap AB, and his weak grounder to the left side overtakes the Tuiasosopo GIDP as the big plate failure of the game (Tuiasosopo actually had a pretty decent AB overall there). No joy in Mudville. Very exciting game, though. Kipnis’s incredible play for the force at 2B and the second out in the 9th on the Jackson almost-single up the middle was the game-saver for the Indians.

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Ubaldo Jimenez, Jason Kipnis
HONORABLE MENTION: Darin Downs, A. Cabrera, Michael Bourn, Victor Martinez, Omar Infante
NOT SO GOOD: Al Alburquerque, Indians bullpen, Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera, Andy Dirks

Were you disappointed by the short series against the Nationals? I sure was. Sweep the Astros, fall flat against the Washington National Angels (can’t they beat teams that wear red?)…what does that spell? It spells O-V-E-R-R-A-T-E-D. Until the next bout of euphoria, anyway.

The recently somewhat deflated and first place by a nose Detroit Tigers (19-13) return home following a 4-2 road trip to take on the red-hot Cleveland Indians (18-14) in a three-game series.

Friday, May 10, 7:08 PM ET: RHP Corey Kluber vs. RHP Max Scherzer

Saturday, May 11, 7:08 PM ET: RHP Ubaldo Jimenez vs. RHP Justin Verlander

Sunday, May 12, 1:08 PM ET: RHP Zach McAllister vs. RHP Rick Porcello

WEATHER: I’m sorry I didn’t get this up right away as I’d intended. Rain could be a factor Friday and Saturday evenings, and even on Sunday. Game time conditions are, in any event, not likely to be pleasant tonight and on Sunday. Winds will be getting stronger over the course of the weekend, and Sunday is going to feel like early April.

This is the first real divisional showdown of the young season, which kind of makes you wish Kevin Verlander in Dallas (7-3) or Coleman Scherzer (8-5) was on the game post mound, but Smoking Rick Loon (4-5) will give it his best shot. Cleveland is only a game behind the Tigers at this point and it’s really no fluke, but on the other hand, their recent history is to start strong (18-14 in 2012, 20-12 in 2011) before eventually fading with a vengeance. Sweeping them out of town could put them out of sight for a bit, but not out of mind. Recall that they were an early pain last season – the Indians took the first 5 games. And 10 of 18 overall.

Anyway, we Tigers fans find ourselves in an odd position for the month of May: No positional controversies. Aside from a bit of bullpen sorting out that remains to be done, the pieces are largely in place. For once, the focus is on execution on the field. That’s refreshing. And, by and large, with a 19-13 record to back it up, the Tigers are getting it done. It took Detroit 96 games (and the departed Jacob Turner’s first MLB win) to get to 8 games over .500 in 2012; it took 30 games this year, shaky bullpen and all.

KLUBER v SCHERZER: Current Tigers have done rather poorly against Kluber in a small-sample 44 PA. (BENCH ALERT: Kelly could start in place of Dirks. Actually, this could be the day to “rest” Cabrera as the DH and start Tuiasosopo at 3B. But 3 days off in a row for Victor? OK. maybe not.) Last time Kluber pitched at Comerica was September 3, 2012; he held the Tigers down and outdueled Anibal Sanchez for the win. Current Indians are at a disadvantage vs. Scherzer, with a .664 OPS in 134 PA. Last time out against Cleveland at Comerica (August 5, 2012), though, they hit him hard, and he only lasted 5 innings. Prediction: Runs will score in this one, most of them for Detroit. I cannot guarantee that the bullpen will hold onto the lead.

JIMENEZ v VERLANDER: Everything about Jimenez’s considerable history against the Tigers and current Tigers and at Comerica says Detroit has his number. (BENCH ALERT: Outside chance of a Pena start.) In 232 PA, current Indians are no more successful vs. Verlander than anyone else is. Michael Brantley’s numbers are so good that we can expect JV to hang a golden sombrero on him. (Any and all predictions I make from here on out on these matchups will be of the stray from the norm/regress to the mean variety. These predictions are silly, and I should really give them up.) Justin did not face the Indians at home in 2012. Prediction: Pitching duel.

McALLISTER v PORCELLO:  52 PA is not much history for current Tigers against McAllister, but Austin Jackson might be looking forward to it. (BENCH ALERT: Santiago could get the call, not that I advocate resting Peralta or Infante at home.) McAllister faced the Tigers twice at Comerica in 2012, pitching fairly well in both Cleveland wins. Current Indians have Porcello’s number in 159 PA. 7 HR in there, too. Porcello’s last time out against the Indians at Comerica (September 4, 2012) was your typical OK/living on the edge outing for Rick, winnable but for a little more run support. Prediction: Porcello doesn’t go more than 5, but the Tigers put such a beat-down on McAllister and even the Indians bullpen that it doesn’t matter.

The Indians lead the AL in HR, paced by Mark Reynolds and Carlos Santana, and are one of the top 3 in hitting overall. Best on the road, incidentally. CF Michael Bourn will be returning to the lineup for the series as well. The fair-to-middlin’ starting pitching has exceeded all expectations, and their 4th-best BAA of .238 compares favorably to Detroit’s .249. Their bullpen is top-tier and arguably what the Tigers might have the most cause to fear. Scoring early is recommended. At least the Tigers won’t have to face Vinnie Pestano this time (out with injury). Actually, Pestano and Chris Perez are the only guys with frightening stats against current non-Cabrera Tigers. So why am I thinking Cleveland’s bullpen has been such a pain?

It might be more pertinent to consider how the Tigers bullpen matches up against current Indians. Detroit heads into the first game with everyone in the pen available except (probably) Smyly and Benoit. Let’s see… Nick Swisher is hard on Valverde. Benoit, gets hit by A. Cabrera and Swisher. Not enough PA for the other guys, unless Coke comes back… OK, Coke shouldn’t really pitch against the Indians.

The ever-controversial (for us) Ryan Raburn, recent AL Player of the Week, makes his unexpectedly triumphant return to Detroit as a Cleveland Indian. I expect every AB, every pitch, every play in the field, to be seen as vindication of opinions for and against him. In reality, there’s no bad blood or “extra incentive” at play here, of course. Raburn was well-liked on the team and has earned Rod Allen’s seal of approval as a “good dude,” and I believe everything Rod Allen says. So I hope the fans at Comerica are nice about it. I also hope that Raburn goes 0 for whatever and commits as many errors as possible. Good dude and all. With Bourn back in CF, it remains to be seen how much we’ll see of Raburn. Some, surely.

Tonight’s “Doug Fister is available to pinch hit for Alex Avila” lineups:

DETROIT

The usual “A-team” lineup you know by heart

CLEVELAND

CF Bourn
2B Kipnis
SS A. Cabrera
DH Swisher
C Santana
1B Reynolds
LF Brantley
RF Stubbs
3B Chisenhall

POST-GAME: Tigers 10, Indians 4. Max seemed quite hittable at first, but that didn’t last, aside from the new prospective Tiger-killer candidate Nick Swisher. Still, I can see Scherzer winning 20 games this year with a +4.00 ERA. Kluber was hittable right away, and it was only a matter of time. Prince’s first-pitch bomb in the bottom of the 3rd was the exclamation point on that, and Miggy’s 3-run shot in the 4th put this one away. If there was a turning point, it might have been the Tigers not getting doubled off from 1B on two early IF line drives. Torii Hunter had the unusual experience of canceling his own RBI by getting tagged out at 1B on a single in the 2nd inning – big heads-up play by cutoff man Mark Reynolds at 1B. That changed 4-1 to 3-1 and ended what could have been a devastating inning; this could have been bigger than it turned out to be. Hunter also played a part in another (shallow RF) gaffe scored as a hit; on Hunter, not Infante, as I saw it. And then there was the Swisher RF double turned triple…

PLAYER OF THE GAME: Max Scherzer, Miguel Cabrera
HONORABLE MENTION: Nick Swisher, Alex Avila, Omar Infante, Jhonny Peralta
NOT SO GOOD: Corey Kluber, Torii Hunter, Michael Bourn

Detroit Tigers, 19-12, 1st Place (1.5 ahead of KC).

This afterevening the Tigers make up their rained out game from Tuesday, as they play the plasticine game in the two-game season series against the Washington Nationals.

I predict that the Nationals will strike early, and score maybe three runs in the first.  The play here I think is long, drawn out at bats and long breaks in-between pitches, and hope the rain hits before the 5th inning.

The Tigers only win 34% of their rain-delayed and rain-makeup games, so the odds are stacked against them. (OK, I made that up. But I wouldn’t be surprised if it were true. I haven’t figured out a way to look it up).

Many have touted this series as a World Series preview. I hope not;  I’ve already seen that one, it’s called last year’s World Series.

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Today’s Player of the Pre-game: Doug Fister. With the Tiger bats in slumber mode, Fister has a small margin of error. Perhaps he can even help with the bat. And if he is going to continue with his strange HBP proclivity, he might as well use one against Denard Span.

Today’s Makeup Game Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Hunter, Rf
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Dirks, LF
6. Peralta, SS
7. Avila, C
8. Infante, 2B
9. Fister, P

19-11, 1st place, 1.5 games up.

Well, this has been a fun stretch. Your Tigers have now won 9 out of 10 games, outscoring their opponents 74-25 (that’s a pythagorean winning % of 89%, or about 143 – 19). Now, the last 7 games were played against the Astros and Twins, so let’s no be disappointed if they don’t score 5 in the first every game here on out. But the Tigers did what good teams are supposed to do against bad ones.

Though it’s only a two game set, this series against the Nationals will be closely watched around the bigs, as both the Tigers and Nationals were heavy pre-season World Series favorites. No Strasburger v. Verlander matchup, but tonight’s duel could be equally as exciting.

Sanchez has been phenomenal out of the gates this year, posting a 1.06 WHIP and 50 Ks in 39 2/3. That’s right, 50! Even more exciting is the fact that Sanchez has never lost to Washington. That’s not a fluke – in 19 career starts he’s 8-0 with a 1.97 ERA against Washington. Hates to face: Desmond (8-25) and Ramos (5-13). Loves to face Benadina (2-20), Laroche (6-30) and Werth (5-30, but he’s out tonight).

Sanchez will be opposed by hard-throwing right Jordan Zimmermann. Zimmermann has a good fastball that can touch 96-97, and great control. In four of his 6 starts this year he’s walked 1 or less, going at least 7 in each of those games. Zimmerman has been strong this year, posting a 5-1 record with a .75 WHIP and 1.64 ERA. He does have 1 HR hitting this year. Only 3 tigers have seen Zimmermann – and only Infante (3-14) has more than 3 AB.

The Nationals are 0-6 all-time v. the Tigers, the only team they are winless against.

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A few notes:

– Type in “Whitaker” (or something similar) here: http://scouts.baseballhall.org/. Have fun.

– The Tigers staff is currently posting a K/9 of 9.91. That’s a full K higher than the modern record of 8.68/9 established by Mil last year.

– Josh Hamilton is arguably the worst hitter in baseball right now. TSE – care to comment on how wise that $125M was spent by LAA?

– Rick Ankiel is available.

– Good article on ESPN on why today is the golden age of leadoff hitters.

– Ryan Raburn beat out the following players for player of the week: Cabrera, Fielder, Scherzer, Verlander.

– Sparky’s wife, Carol, passed last night. May she rest in peace and thank you for Sparky & Co.

Remember – NL park so VMart on the bench and 1 free out ever 8 batters.

Today’s lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, DH
5. Dirks, LF
6. Peralta, SS
7. Avila, C
8. Infante, 2B
9. Sanchez, P