43-37, 1st place tie with Cleveland.

The Detroit Tigers first went to 6 games over .500 on May 3 with a dramatic win over the Houston Astros. And here we are at 6 games over .500 again. Hmmm. Quite a few teams would be happy to say that. Hmmm. Tigers. Aren’t they that team with Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder and Justin Verlander? Hmmm.

A Monday day game seems a bit odd, but that’s what they’re doing in Toronto today. For that reason I won’t be able to post the starting lineup. Sorry.

43-36, 1st place, 1 game up on Cle…

Well, last night was incredibly disappointing, and the Rondon outing led to an outcry of criticism regarding Leyland’s bullpen management.  Hop over here if you want to discuss.

Even more concerning that the bullpen issue is Justin Verlander. Yes, he went 8 and allowed only 2 ER, but he allowed 9 hits and 4 walks. That’s a 1.625 WHIP. With only 4 Ks. Not a good outing. As a follow-up to yesterday’s post, I couldn’t find league-wide count specific data, so I decided to list the same counts, with JV’s OPS+ against:

Count	OPS+
0-0	66
1-1	148
2-1	221
3-1	34

For whatever reason, JV gets hammered on 1-1 and 2-1 pitches. Note, even when the next pitch isn’t put into play, the OPS+ against for all events after 1-1 is 137, and after 2-1 is 147. He’s having a lot of difficulty when he gets behind in counts. Let me rephrase that, because I’m certain that every pitcher has a lot of difficulty after they get behind in counts. JV is having an unreasonable, and unusual, amount of trouble once he’s behind in the count.

The Tigers have baseball ops guys who I’m sure have all of these stats, plus some, so JV knows or will know all of these things. Curious to see when he gets it worked out.

************

Porcello gets the call in today’s rubber match. The last two times out have been pretty bad for the kid, but we’ve seen stretches of good stuff from Porcello. And those stretches seem to be getting longer and longer.

He’ll be opposing Jeremy Hellickson, who would be 4-0 with a 1.87 ERA in June if you remove an 8 earned in 5 2/3 inning outing vs. the Royals in the middle there. On the season Hellickson is getting a lot of run support. Despite a 5.11 ERA he’s 6-3.  He doesn’t strike out many (6.74/9), and gives up nearly 1 HR per start. He’s given up 10 to lefties already this year. In 16 starts this year he’s given up 5 or more ER 6 times. He’s got 6 quality starts, 3 of those in his last 4 outings.

Also, let’s not forget the Rodney – Cabrera subplot which came to the forefront during post game interviews. In case you missed it, Cabby took a shot at Rodney by shooting an imaginary arrow into the rafters after the win on Friday night. Rodney responded by buzzing Cabby last night. Cabrera struck out on the next pitch. Leyland wasn’t too pleased, though I’m not sure if we can coin Leyland’s response as a “threat”. Considering the thin ice that is the bullpen these days, I’d prefer to focus on winning the game without getting anyone ejected. The best way to show-up Rodney and TB would be to win a series on their home field.

We gotta win series.

Today’s Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Dirks, LF
7. Infante, 2B
8. Santiago, SS
9. Holaday, C

 

 

43-35, 1st place, 2 games ahead of Cle (did you see their sweep over Chi yesterday? 46 total runs between the teams. Check out these box scores).

Now, that was a fun game. Miggy went 4-4 with 2 no-doubters, and Prince hit a rafter. He would have hit it out of the stadium had it been hit in a stadium. According to the ESPN, Fielder’s homerun was estimated at 414 feet, which is a bit embarassing matched up against Miggy’s second at 432 feet. It sure looked like Fielder’s ball would have gone much, much further hat it not been impeded by the rafter. We’ll never know.

And then there’s Mad Max Scherzer. Max is now the first pitcher since Roger Clemens in 1986 to start a season 12-0. He very may well be starting the All Star game in two weeks. Though I’m going to get very queasy when they put up a graphic titled “Last Tiger to Start the All-Star Game…”

Justin Verlander throws today. Well, hopefully, he’ll be pitching today. He’s definitely lost his paintbrush as of late, and it’s cause for concern. Earlier this month, I posted that JV’s peripherals suggested that he’s been unlucky, but otherwise pitching near career norms. Since then he’s had 1 brilliant game (which was lost by Toledo’s current closer) and 2 awful ones. Over his last 9 games Just-another-guy Verlander is 3-3, with a 6.04 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, and 3.90 BB/9. All of those are simply awful (though curiously, he’s still posting an extremely impressive K rate – 10.65 K/9). We’ve discussed the foul ball issue on here and I started looking for foul ball stats. I couldn’t find any (if you can find them, please let me know and I’ll take a look), so then I started looking for reasons why (a) his BABIP against is so high and (b) he’s getting a lot of foul balls. My feeble baseball mind suggested less movement on his pitches and poor counts. Let’s take a closer look.

Look at this chart which reflects what happens on balls in play on certain counts.

Count	# of Events	Opp. BA	Opp. OPS	Opp. BABIP
0-0	46	.244	.728	.205
1-1	12	.433	1.033	.414
2-1	24	.591	1.587	.500
3-1	18	.222	.833	.222

I omitted 1-0 and 2-0 because there were so few balls in play.

Obviously, 1-1 and 2-1 count events are astonishing. I know that I’m presenting this without league or team averages, so it makes it difficult to really draw any conclusions, but the numbers speak for themselves. (I ran out of time and plan to do that part tonight or early tomorrow – so stay tuned).

Now, JV throws his fastball more than anything else. His fastball contact rate this season is 86%, versus 81.2% for 2012, and 83.6% for his career. His fastball swinging strike rate is 7.1% in 2013, down from 9.9% in 2012 and 8.3% for his career. Those are significant changes.

So his fastball is either slower, or not moving. Or, gasp, both. Well, his average fastball this year is 93.6 MPH, compared to 94.7 last year and 94.8 for his career. And, using PitchFX data, we can conclude that it’s not moving as much in 2013. I believe that this partially explains why the BABIP against and foul ball numbers are so high.

Thus, we’re left with “what does this mean?” Far from my area of expertise, but I would guess that it’s something mechanical, or mental, considering his age. But a full season of this and the high innings over the past three years are going to get heavier and heavier.

****************

Tonight’s Potential Series Clinching Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Dirks, LF
3. The Man, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Peralta, SS
7. Kelly, RF
8. Infante, 2B
9. Pena, C

42-35, 1st place, 2.5 games up on Cle.

Being in first place is tough. Everyone is gunning for you. Even the LAA Angels, who now own an 8 game winning streak over our boys. I know, it sounds crazy. Just one of those quirky baseball streaks. Like Phil Coke losing 5 games in a row. Hilarious.

There’s a lot not to like about the Angels series and yesterday’s game in particular, but we’ve all read it and lamented to our uninterested wives (well, at least my wife isn’t too interested in why Coke was left in to face 2 righties, who as a group have a .900 OPS against him), so let’s move on.

We’re still in first place, no one else in the division is getting any better, and we’ve got a lot of time to figure out (trade for) a bullpen. Let’s enjoy a good baseball weekend.

Help is on the way. Or more precisely, Bruce Rondon should be in the bullpen tonight (Reed down). He will not be the closer . ! I don’t have high expectations for him in the short-term, as I don’t think the he’s seasoned enough for the bigs. On the flip side, this could be the shot in the arm that the bullpen needs to feel less annoyed, man. I think it’s a great, low-risk, move.

If you want to drink beers with Jose Valverde, I think this is your chance. You’ll just have to do it in Toledo (wait until next Wednesday).

Tonight’s Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Peralta, SS
7. Kelly, LF
8. Infante, 2B
9. Pena, C

Detroit Tigers: 42-34, 1st Place (2.5 ahead of Cleveland).

The Angels continued their befuddling mastery of the Tigers last night with a 7-4 victory which put them at 5-for-5 for the season, a stretch in which they have outscored Detroit by a whopping 43-16. Their Pythagorean winning percentage should probably be at least 1.000.  Home, away, it doesn’t seem to matter.

This afternoon Los Anaheim looks to make it a perfect 6-for-6 2013 sweep.

What has gone wrong? Even though there have been a few outbursts of power and a few runs scored, the hitting has been lackluster at best, hitting .247 for the season, with a meager .676 OPS, which puts the team as a whole almost exactly in Avisail Garcia territory. And this against the team with a pitching staff that has been one of the shakiest in the league: they are 13th in team ERA with a hefty 4.39, and better than only Houston in Runs Per Game, at 4.74.

Not that the Tiger pitchers have fared any better against the Angels. Oh no. The Tiger hurlers have been bombed to the tune of a 6.65 ERA and a ridiculous .325 Batting Average Against. Oh, and that ERA doesn’t include the 6 Runs on Errors; yes, the fielding has been awful also.

The good news is that the one pitcher that has been immune so far has been today’s starter, Doug Fister. In his previous start against the Angels he went 7 innings of shutout baseball, holding them to 5 hits, though the bullpen eventually lost the game. Perhaps he could try to make it 8 innings today?

The other good news is that regardless of what happens today, Detroit has seen the last of the Angels for this year. It doesn’t get any easier though: on deck is an 11-game road trip with 3 in Tampa Bay, 4 at the hot Toronto Blue Jays, and then finishing with 4 at the Cleveland Indians, who are right back in the race.

Today’s Player of the Pre-game:  Torii Hunter again. Torii was a good call yesterday, going 2-for-5 and flexing some muscle with a home run and a double. The Ex-Angel now has hit his former team to the tune of .400 with a 1.128 OPS, 2nd only to Miguel Cabrera (.474/1.388).

Today’s Return of Ramon Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Peralta, SS
7. Dirks, LF
8. Pena, C
9. Santiago, 2B

Detroit Tigers: 42-33, 1st Place (3.5 ahead of Cleveland).

Well, that did not go well (including those ground ball things we were looking at). What is it with the Angels anyway?  Jason Beck looks at the disaster that was Game 75 in a bit appropriately titled “Breaking Down the Tigers’ Breakdown.” The most distressing thing about the game last night for me is that Porcello has joined the Troubled Starters brigade, following rough outings by Verlander and Fister, and the injured Sanchez. Max is holding it all together right now. Perhaps New Guy Jose Alvarez will right the ship tonight.

Perhaps we should change the subject. How are those Mud Hens doing? What? they lost 16-3 last night? Oh.

OK, how about this. The Tigers may have given up 16 hits last night, but in a game back in 1977, Boston pitcher Reggie Cleveland gave up 18 hits to Detroit. And won, 12-5. And pitched a complete game. Check out his line in the link above: 18 hits with no walks, and only 5 runs (also pitching for Detroit that day: Steve Grilli, father of Jason). This courtesy of John Lowe.

I’m guessing this might be the last 18-hit complete game victory in our lifetimes.

So, where were we…I think there was a game or something last night. At any rate, there is one tonight, and the Tigers are still in first.

Today’s Player of the Pre-game:  Torii Hunter. He was 3-for-4 in that debacle last night, and should have had an assist at the plate. Something tells me he doesn’t particularly like how his former team has been dominating against Detroit.

Today’s Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Peralta, SS
7. Dirks, LF
8. Infante, 2B
9. Pena, C

Detroit Tigers: 42-32, 1st Place (3.5 ahead of Cleveland).

Yes, the Tigers are lucky to play in the Central. But if they were playing in the East, they would be in 2nd, only 2 games out of first, behind Boston, from whom they just took 3-of-4. Of course, that was at home. But if the Tigers could figure out how to step up their road game, they could be as good as anybody.

The Tigers finish off their home stand by welcoming the redundantly-named Los Angeles Angels for 3 games before departing for a rough road-trip that begins in Tampa Bay, rolls into the suddenly unbeatable Blue Jay juggernaut for 4 games, then ends in Cleveland. The Angels have owned Detroit lately–they have a 6-game winning streak in which they have outscored the Tigers 34-9. None of those games were at Comerica, however, and the Tigers are a different beast there.

Porcello will try to keep the ball down tonight: last time he faced the Angels he was bombed for 9 runs in less than an inning, including a Trout grand slam on a hanging curve ball.

C.J. Wilson will do his best to avoid joining his teammate Josh Hamilton in succumbing to the well-known Head & Shoulders Curse.

*****

When Porcello is at his best he gets a lot of ground balls. Actually, the Tigers as a team do the same (starters and relievers combined):

• 858 Ground Balls (11th most)
• 594 Fly Balls (15th most)
• 379 Line Drives (15th most)

So the balls put in play are predominantly ground balls, and they do the best at any team of avoiding the dreaded line drive, which results in a .698 batting average (league average; for Detroit it is a fairly average .704).

You’ll notice that even though the Tigers have fewer Line Drives and Fly Balls than Ground Balls, that they are low in every category. This is because so many plate appearances end in strike outs (701, best in the league by 40). Combine that with being 3rd best in allowing the fewest walks (197: the Twins are best at 193), and what you get is just not that many balls put in play of any kind, and not that many total plate appearances. In fact Tiger pitchers have only pitched to 2795 total batters, well below the league average of 2871.

The bad news is that those ground balls have been getting through. The Tigers have a .268 batting average on ground balls hit against them, highest in the AL (the league average is .241; Baltimore is best at .214). Not to mention the ground balls rarely result in double plays (Tigers have turned a league-low 46).  Something to keep in mind for Rick Porcello on the mound.

*****

In other news, the Tigers had a scout at the Marlins/Giants series. They are rumored to be interested in Miami relievers Steve Cishek and Ryan Webb.

*****

Today’s Player of the Pre-game:  Austin Jackson. We’ll ignore the career 2-for-13 he has against Wilson. AJax is .457 (16-for 35) since his return from the DL, which may be energizing the offense as much as the return home. Before his trip to the DL he was in a horrible slump, but also playing through a bad hamstring. One should not forget how well he was hitting to start the season; that swing may be back. Enjoy.

(Oh. And how good does the Edwin Jackson/Curtis Granderson for Austin Jackson, Max Scherzer, and Phil Coke (and Schlereth, oh well) trade seem now?).

Today’s Lineup:

1. Jackson, CF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Peralta, SS
7. Infante, 2B
8. Garcia, LF
9. Holaday, C

41-32, 1st place, 3 games up on Cleveland, winning streak at 1. Now it’s time for Justin Verlander (vs. Doubront) and the most satisfying series win of the season. Some bench guys are going to get starts today. Count on it, and don’t complain about it. The bench has been good. Tub is Love, and Bench is Good. Considering Miggy’s stats in JV starts, it might be a good time to give him a day off. But I wouldn’t count on it, and that I would complain about.

If we update this:

OFFENSIVE WPA/RE24 HEROES (bold = win) + OPPONENT

GAME 68 JACKSON (BAL) 
GAME 69 JACKSON
GAME 70 TUIASOSOPO
GAME 71 PERALTA (BOS) 
GAME 72 CABRERA

And then update this:

OFFENSIVE WPA/RE24 TURDS (bold = loss) + OPPONENT

GAME 68 PENA (BAL)
GAME 69 CABRERA 
GAME 70 JACKSON 
GAME 71 CABRERA, MARTINEZ (BOS)
GAME 72 FIELDER 

And then tote up all the “best in wins” and “worst in losses,” we might come up with something like this:

OFFENSIVE W-L

TUIASOSOPO 4-0
KELLY 3-0
SANTIAGO 1-0
CABRERA 13-3
JACKSON 4-2
PERALTA 3-2
FIELDER 9-7
AVILA 3-3
PENA 0-0
DIRKS 3-5
MARTINEZ 4-8
HUNTER 1-2
GARCIA 1-2
INFANTE 2-5

If we instead looked at “best in losses” and “worst in wins,” we’d get a look into where team results mask the individual contribution:

THE CONTRARIANS W-L

FISTER 1-0
CABRERA 10-3
TUIASOSOPO 4-2
KELLY 2-1
FIELDER 9-5
PERALTA 3-3
PENA 3-3
JACKSON 2-3
INFANTE 2-4
HUNTER 3-7
AVILA 2-5
GARCIA 1-3
SANTIAGO 0-1
DIRKS 0-6
MARTINEZ 0-6

Much of all that won’t surprise you, but some of it should. For instance: Infante, Hunter, Garcia… all overrated offensively.

If JV is ordinary today, let us hope for more of the extraordinary from the Comerica Strong bats.

POST-GAME: Tigers 7, Red Sox 5. Wow, what a game. Dramatic, start to finish. Couple things: A. 1B Victor Martinez made the defensive play of the year on Jacoby Ellsbury in the 6th, knocking down a ball scorched down the 1B line, getting back on his feet and to the ball quick as a cat, and then scooping the ball from the ground to 1B and into Smyly’s glove without looking, facing away from the play. SENSATIONAL. B. The Tigers sure caught a break in the 8th on RF Daniel Nava’s catch-and-drop that was called an error, huh? But here’s the thing. To the unaided human eye farther away than 10 feet from Nava, that was an error. Not only did Nava not get back on Garcia’s flyball well enough to make a normal catch, but he was pulling the ball out of his glove (and dropping it) before he’d even established that he’d made the catch. 2B ump Mike DiMuro may have blown the call, in retrospect, but what made this possible is that Nava blew the play.

The Tigers kept giving Verlander the lead, and he kept giving it back. Both Felix Doubront and Verlander struggled with their command on this steamy day and took only 5 innings – as long as either lasted – to go over 100 pitches. After that, it was a battle of the bullpens. The centerpiece of Detroit’s 2-run 1st was Cabrera’s blast to dead center (HR everywhere else, ground rule double at Comerica). CF Ellsbury prevented further damage by robbing Peralta of a RCF gap double with a great catch. 7 Red Sox hitters came to the plate in the two-run Boston 2nd that set the always-in-trouble tone for Verlander’s outing. The Tigers 2nd was a gutsy one. After Infante’s CS/pickoff left the bases empty, 2 outs, Holaday and Jackson came though, and Holaday came in to score on C Ryan Lavarnway’s lazy PB. 3-2 Tigers. The Red Sox 3rd was on the defense. How Peralta and Infante weren’t charged with throwing errors I have no idea, but their clown show helped make it 3-3. With help from Verlander’s strike three called a ball on Mike Napoli. In the 4th, another bluff from crafty Hunter prevented Lavarnway from scoring from 1B on the Ellsbury double, which was big until the next AB, when he scored for a 4-3 Boston lead anyway. In the Tigers 4th, with the bases loaded, RF Victorino bounced off the RF corner wall while making a great catch on Hunter’s deep (just foul) flyball. The post-5th battle of the bullpens was close and tense for a while. Smyly was in a spot of trouble in the 7th, two on and none out. Napoli flied out to Garcia, and Dustin Pedroia had the nerve to tag from 2B. Garcia had him nailed on a perfect throw to 3B, but Cabrera never had it and lost it on the tag, yet another uncharged Tigers error. But Smyly pitched out of the jam. It all started to fall apart for the Red Sox in the 7th. Strange play there. Jackson on 1B, Hunter hits a soft liner that 2B Pedroia drops. Pedroia picks up the ball and runs toward 1B, Jackson retreats to 1B, Pedroia throws to Napoli who tags Jackson at the bag, shortly followed (or preceded?) by Hunter crossing 1B. It ends with Hunter out, Jackson still at 1B. Evidently, Pedroia should have gone to 2B, lost the force there by failing to. Or maybe it was Napoli not tagging Jackson before Hunter got to 1B. I don’t know. Anyway, Tigers load the bases but only tie the game at 4-4 by virtue of an Andrew Miller HBP on Peralta. Remember the great catch by Victorino? He hurt his back. That’s why Nava comes in and strikes out with Ellsbury on 2B against Benoit to end the Red Sox 8th, and that’s why Nava was in RF to make the (official) two-base error that began the Tigers winning 8th. Karma! After Red Sox manager John Farrell was ejected arguing the Nava call, his bullpen collapsed. Miller, Wilson, Breslow. Hunter knocked in the go-ahead run with a sac fly, and Fielder came through with a based-loaded single to make it 7-4. The Benoit 9th was not relaxing, but it ended. He struck out Ortiz. He allowed a run. Hunter ended the game in style with a tumbling catch of Stephen Drew’s liner to RCF. Lost in all the excitement: A truly horrid day from Martinez at the plate. Back at it already.

ALL-STAR TEAM

C Holaday
1B Napoli
2B Pedroia
SS Drew
3B Cabrera
LF Garcia
CF Jackson
RF Hunter
DH Fielder

P Smyly

RULE 5 DRAFT PICK: Jacoby Ellsbury

DFA: Daniel Nava

40-32, 1st place, 3 games ahead of Cleveland, losing streak at 1. Phooey on the Red Sox and their silly beards.

The good great news is that Jose Valverde has been DFA. The talk of repairing him down yonder is just to soften the blow. No freaking way he pitches in a Tigers uniform again, ever. Al-Al is back, and that might be good news, not sure. Thus concludes the good news portion of our broadcast. AJax, out yesterday with “soreness,” has become A-Glass. With Tui on the DL and the well-known “durability” of Andy Dirks, I don’t think Avisail Garcia will be spending much more time in Toledo this season, but he is playing as though he might wish to.

Max Scherzer gets the call tonight. Will he answer it or be the next domino to fall? Beware the Unknown Struggling Rookie looming in the headlights dead ahead. We have learned to fear things like “11.74 ERA” by now.

The Detroit Tigers have played .500 baseball since May 8. The Detroit Tigers have played .500 baseball since May 8. Oh, did I repeat myself?

And now, the flip side of yesterday’s “offensive hero” list:

OFFENSIVE WPA/RE24 TURDS (thru 67 games, bold = loss) + OPPONENT

GAME 1 AVILA (MIN)
GAME 2 FIELDER 
GAME 3 FIELDER 
GAME 4 PERALTA (NYY)
GAME 5 MARTINEZ, SANTIAGO
GAME 6 INFANTE, MARTINEZ 
GAME 7 PERALTA (TOR)
GAME 8 AVILA 
GAME 9 DIRKS
GAME 10 MARTINEZ (OAK) 
GAME 11 JACKSON, MARTINEZ
GAME 12 INFANTE
GAME 13 AVILA (SEA)
GAME 14 INFANTE 
GAME 15 AVILA
GAME 16 FIELDER (LAA) 
GAME 17 JACKSON, INFANTE 
GAME 18 MARTINEZ 
GAME 19 JACKSON (KCR)
GAME 20 MARTINEZ 
GAME 21 PERALTA. PENA (ATL)
GAME 22 FIELDER
GAME 23 FIELDER
GAME 24 INFANTE (MIN)
GAME 25 DIRKS
GAME 26 MARTINEZ 
GAME 27 PENA (HOU)
GAME 28 HUNTER
GAME 29 FIELDER, JACKSON
GAME 30 CABRERA
GAME 31 AVILA (WSN) 
GAME 32 HUNTER 
GAME 33 HUNTER (CLE)
GAME 34 CABRERA, JACKSON 
GAME 35 MARTINEZ 
GAME 36 CABRERA (HOU)
GAME 37 HUNTER, GARCIA
GAME 38 CABRERA, FIELDER 
GAME 39 HUNTER (TEX) 
GAME 40 KELLY, HUNTER
GAME 41 INFANTE 
GAME 42 DIRKS, MARTINEZ 
GAME 43 TUIASOSOPO (CLE)
GAME 44 INFANTE, MARTINEZ
GAME 45 DIRKS, PENA (MIN)
GAME 46 MARTINEZ
GAME 47 GARCIA, DIRKS 
GAME 48 DIRKS
GAME 49 GARCIA (PIT)
GAME 50 DIRKS 
GAME 51 PERALTA, INFANTE 
GAME 52 DIRKS 
GAME 53 PERALTA (BAL) 
GAME 54 DIRKS, AVILA
GAME 55 AVILA 
GAME 56 MARTINEZ, HUNTER (TBR)
GAME 57 FIELDER, GARCIA 
GAME 58 DIRKS
GAME 59 FIELDER (CLE)
GAME 60 MARTINEZ, GARCIA
GAME 61 INFANTE, AVILA
GAME 62 INFANTE, FIELDER (KCR) 
GAME 63 HUNTER
GAME 64 MARTINEZ 
GAME 65 HUNTER, TUIASOSOPO (MIN)
GAME 66 DIRKS 
GAME 67 FIELDER

I wouldn’t make too much of a certain name coming up 14 times. I’m sure Gary Martinez, I mean Victor Sheffield, I mean Victor Martinez has just been a bit rusty and will soon get going, as we all wish he would, though perhaps in different ways. Maybe we can blame Brennan “11” Dirks instead.

Shut them down, Max! Please.

POST-GAME: Tigers 10, Red Sox 3. Now THAT’S what I’m talkin’ about. The historic Max Scherzer (first Tigers starter ever to start the season 11-0, first in 16 years in MLB) gave up a couple quick runs in the 1st, including a David Ortiz bomb, but thereafter was dominant, not in a highlight reel kind of way, but in the best and most frustrating way to the opponent (or their fans – we’ve been there, eh?) – effective and effectively untouchable. The Tigers came out strong right away against rookie Allen Webster, fill-in for injured Clay Buchholz, and loaded the bases for Fielder. Who struck out. Leaving this up to Martinez was not what we had in mind, But leave it to Victor to have a sensational game after a 7 for 45. He took a Webster pitch to the railing in RF. GRAND SLAM. Given the lead, Max cruised. Webster wasn’t so bad through 4.1, striking out 5 (he even struck out the side in that damaging 1st), but when he came out, the Tigers piled on against long man Franklin Morales, who left the game (injured?) after Infante’s HR with new OBP sensation V-Mart aboard made it 9-2 in the 7th. Alburquerque came in for the 8th and worked himself into and out of a jam, and Putkonen pitched a somewhat rocky 9th that would have been easier (and possibly scorelesser) without Jhonny Solid’s uncharacteristically poor relay throw on a would-be GIDP off the bat of Mike Carp. I like 10-2 better than 10-3, but I’ll take either. The Tigers hitting was Comerica Hot, with 11 of the 15 hits off the bats of Jackson, Hunter, and – gak – Martinez (5 RBI, after all those mean things we said about him) and Dirks! The 5 walks didn’t hurt, either. Jackson was the defensive equivalent of Country Strong (Nationwide?) in CF. New nemesis Jose Iglesias was de-nemesized when his extension of single to double resulted in a tumble over the bag and a Hunter-to-Peralta putout that reduced a possible-stress inning for Scherzer to dust. Fielder had a bad day, missing out on two prime opportunities to turn this into a blowout of Astro-Proportion. The running joke of the series is RF Shane Victorino now twice throwing to 1B on Cabrera singles (it’s going to work eventually if Miggy isn’t careful), and Hunter and Ortiz played off this joke later in the game when Ortiz singled.

ALL-STAR TEAM

C Pena
1B Carp
2B Infante
SS Drew
3B Cabrera
LF Dirks
CF Jackson (oh, he’s bad… he’s Nationwide)
RF Hunter
DH Martinez
P Scherzer

RULE 5 DRAFT PICK: David Ortiz

DFA: Franklin Morales

40-31, 1st place, 4 games ahead of Cleveland, winning streak at 1.

Matt Tuiasosopo was supposed to start in LF yesterday, but was held out because of “intercostal” something or other. Is that a religious injury of some kind? I’m not sure what this means for the upcoming games, but I don’t like it. Meanwhile, Avisail Garcia was “sent down” to Toledo to make room for Jose Alvarez. I’m not sure if he actually goes to Toledo physically or not. Could be that they just “send down” Alvarez and “bring up” Garcia again now, and repeat the whole silly process for the next Alvarez start. Maybe they’re both staying in a Detroit hotel room with a “Toledo” sign on the door.

The starters have been a bit wobbly lately. 10 strikeouts notwithstanding, even Scherzer’s last outing was wobbly. Time for Judge Doug Fister to restore some order in the courtroom here.

WPA and RE24 have some limitations. Defense counts for nothing, and I don’t see them being analogously applicable to pitching as with some other stats (BAA, for instance). However, they are magically delicious when it comes to a game by game analysis of offensive impact and productive at bats. If you note nothing else from the list below, please note that every position player is on it, starter to bench. It is not opinion but fact that Don Kelly was the unquestionable offensive star of Game 27 against the Astros, as unlikely as it may seem that Kelly would ever be such, and you may look up the box score and full play-by-play if you doubt it. Of course, some names will be harder to miss than others. Looks like a couple of guys are earning those big paychecks. Behold the magical deliciousness:

OFFENSIVE WPA/RE24 HEROES (thru 67 games, bold = win) + OPPONENT

GAME 1 FIELDER (MIN)

GAME 2 CABRERA

GAME 3 JACKSON

GAME 4 FIELDER (NYY)

GAME 5  CABRERA

GAME 6 TUIASOSOPO

GAME 7 CABRERA (TOR)

GAME 8 PERALTA

GAME 9 AVILA. FIELDER

GAME 10 FIELDER (OAK)

GAME 11 FIELDER

GAME 12 JACKSON

GAME 13 CABRERA (SEA)

GAME 14 TUIASOSOPO

GAME 15 FIELDER

GAME 16 CABRERA (LAA)

GAME 17 FIELDER, CABRERA

GAME 18 FIELDER

GAME 19 INFANTE (KCR)

GAME 20 INFANTE, HUNTER

GAME 21 MARTINEZ, TUIASOSOPO (ATL)

GAME 22 INFANTE

GAME 23 JACKSON, CABRERA

GAME 24 FIELDER. DIRKS (MIN)

GAME 25 CABRERA, FIELDER

GAME 26 CABRERA

GAME 27 KELLY (HOU)

GAME 28 AVILA

GAME 29 CABRERA

GAME 30 FIELDER, DIRKS

GAME 31 PERALTA, FIELDER (WSN)

GAME 32 TUIASOSOPO

GAME 33 AVILA, CABRERA (CLE)

GAME 34 INFANTE, PERALTA

GAME 35 PENA

GAME 36 DIRKS (HOU)

GAME 37 SANTIAGO, MARTINEZ

GAME 38 TUIASOSOPO, GARCIA

GAME 39 KELLY, CABRERA (TEX)

GAME 40 CABRERA

GAME 41 HUNTER

GAME 42 FIELDER, CABRERA

GAME 43 CABRERA, DIRKS (CLE)

GAME 44 CABRERA

GAME 45 CABRERA (MIN)

GAME 46 CABRERA, DIRKS

GAME 47 PENA, HUNTER

GAME 48 GARCIA

GAME 49 MARTINEZ, PERALTA (PIT)

GAME 50 AVILA

GAME 51 CABRERA, KELLY

GAME 52 FISTER (yes, batting)

GAME 53 CABRERA (BAL)

GAME 54 PERALTA, TUIASOSOPO

GAME 55 FIELDER

GAME 56 FIELDER, TUIASOSOPO (TBR)

GAME 57 AVILA

GAME 58 MARTINEZ

GAME 59 HUNTER (CLE)

GAME 60 FIELDER 

GAME 61 KELLY

GAME 62 CABRERA (KCR)

GAME 63 CABRERA, KELLY

GAME 64 PENA, FIELDER

GAME 65 FIELDER (MIN)

GAME 66 FIELDER

GAME 67 JACKSON, HUNTER

 

POST-GAME: Red Sox 10, Tigers 6. As the score might indicate… we will have nothing to say about missed opportunities and Fielder going 0 for 5 with 13 double plays. This one’s on the pitching. Fister was fooling no one. Not terrible, but bad enough to be gone in the 4th, by which time it was 6-0 Boston. Balls just kept finding holes through the infield. This will happen to groundball pitchers, especially on this team. Jon Lester was not sharp, either, though the Tigers kept finding ways to beat themselves against him. The drama in this one boiled down to two innings. Tigers 5th: Down 6-1 and seemingly on the road to hopelessness, Dirks homered to Belle Tire, and Cabrera took a Lester change-up deep for 3 runs, and suddenly it was a ballgame again, 6-5 Red Sox. Red Sox 8th: With the Tigers down 7-5, men on 2nd and 3rd after Phil “I Told You So” Coke was brought in for a second inning against all reason, new arrival Alburquerque came in and actually pitched well. And yet 2 more Boston runs scored, first on a close play at the plate (I think Saltalamacchia was safe) that drawn-in Peralta and Pena weren’t quite equal to, and then on a mere squib of a WP and another play at the plate that Al-Al and Pena weren’t quite equal to. There were good defensive plays. In the 3rd, Miggy charged – see what can happen when you CHARGE a tapper, Miguel? – and made a great barehand and throw to nail Pedroia at 1B (though a run scored from 3B). In the 5th, Hunter’s bullet throw from RF doubled off Mike Napoli at 1B (yet another close play). There was bad, as in Garcia, formerly known as “CF Of The Future,” muffing an altogether routine single in the 9th and allowing a run to score from 1B in the process. All in all, though, it was a game where the Tigers were a day late and a dollar short on defense. Downs got a big DP in relief of Fister and an impressive 3-pitch K on Ellsbury, and was OK in his long relief, despite giving up what seemed at the time a crucial run. Coke had a nice 7th and should have said goodbye thereafter. Evan “White Flag” Reed (good call, Coleman) pitched the 9th and had your average white flag inning, again demonstrating the Tigers surplus of eminently hittable pitchers with “great stuff.” Shane Victorino was a one-man wrecking crew, reaching 5 times with 5 RBI. Cabrera deserved a better outcome on a fine 4 for 4 evening himself.

ALL-STAR TEAM

C Pena
1B Napoli
2B Pedroia
SS Drew
3B Cabrera
LF Dirks
CF Ellsbury
RF Victorino
DH Ortiz
P Breslow

RULE 5 DRAFT PICK: Jose Iglesias

DFA: Avisail Garcia

 

The Detroit Tigers (39-31, 1st place, 3.5 games ahead of Cleveland, losing streak at 2) continue their home stand with a 4-game set against the Clay Buchholz-less Boston Red Sox (44-30, 1st place AL East). The forecast says Detroit weather all good for the first couple games, fair chance of rain over the weekend that could affect play.

Thursday, June 20, 7:08 PM EDT: RHP John Lackey (4-5, 3.08) v LHP Jose Alvarez (1-0, 1,50)
Friday, June 21, 7:08 PM EDT: LHP Jon Lester (6-4, 4.37) v RHP Doug Fister (6-4, 3.21)
Saturday, June 22, 7:15 PM EDT*: RHP Allen Webster (0-1, 11.74) v RHP Max Scherzer (10-0, 3.08)
Sunday, June 23,  1:08 PM EDT: LHP Felix Doubront (4-3, 4.38) v RHP Justin Verlander (8-5, 3.72)

*National on Fox, meaning blacked out for us MLB.tv folks

MEET THE RED SOX*:  HITTING: .268 AVG (Tigers .281), .345 OBP (.348), .443 SLG (.428), .788 OPS (.776),  371 R (343), 82 HR (72), 58 of 71 SB (21 of 27), GIDP 59 or 11% (61 or 11%), INFIELD HITS 68 or 10.3% (52 or 7.6%). STARTING PITCHING: 3.70 ERA (Tigers 3.38), .241 BAA (.237), 1.30 WHIP (1.13), 401/174 K/BB (465/107), 54 HR (31). BULLPEN: 213 IP (Tigers 191), 12-8 W-L (4-13), 3.89 ERA (3.76), .246 BAA (.234), 1.36 WHIP (1.27), 231/91 K/BB (200/77), 26 HR (17), IRS% 27% (30%) DEFENSE: .986 FPCT (Tigers .989), .692 DefEff (.686), 59 DP (52), 76% SBPCT (75%), OF ASSISTS 15 (9), UNEARNED RUNS 20 (13).

*Thru 69 games

You could have – would have – called this another “are they ready?” series before the one just concluded against Baltimore. (You may recall that the Tigers failed the first two such tests against the Rangers and the Pirates.) At this point, a split with Boston would be a pleasant surprise, though the Red Sox feature a bullpen that the Tigers could munch on if they were so inclined. But I’m guessing that they’re not so inclined.

A few tidbits on the best starting rotation in baseball:

INNING-OWNERS*: MASTERS OF THEIR DOMAIN (thru 67 games)

SCHERZER 52.2% (48 OF 92)
ALVAREZ 50.0% (3 OF 6)
PORCELLO 40.3% (29 OF 72)
SANCHEZ 36.1% (30 OF 83)
FISTER 35.8% (34 OF 95)
VERLANDER 26.1% (23 OF 88)

*Perfect but for any IBB or ROE

IMPERFECT INNINGS ERA (thru 67 games)

ALVAREZ 3.00
SANCHEZ 4.25
VERLANDER 4.57
FISTER 4.87
SCHERZER 6.54
PORCELLO 9.18

INTERESTING COUNT DATA (BAA/OPSA) thru 67 games

	1ST PITCH***	0-2*******	3-2******	3-BALL%**	HOT COUNT****	NOT COUNT*****	K COUNT
VERLANDER	.222/.633	.152/.391**	.333/.974	18%	1-2 .158/.366	2-1 .611/1.690	1-2 (60%)
SCHERZER	.343/.905	.146/.341*	.057/.498	18%	2-2 .079/.238	1-0 .438/1.537	0-2 (59%)
PORCELLO	.458/1.208	.190/.381**	.286/.819	20%	1-2 .070/.233	1-0 .563/1.250	0-2 (57%)
SANCHEZ	.548/1.322	.122/.244*	.200/.710	19%	1-2 .037/.073	1ST PITCH	1-2 (65%)
FISTER	.324/.780	.188/.517**	.351/.922	17.5%	2-2 .182/.400	1-1 .393/.842	2-2 (47%)

 

(The bold type and asterisks are for separation and readability only, nothing more. Haven’t quite worked out the table insertion thing…)

And now, the situation…

The Tigers are fresh off their most humiliating loss of the season, a 13-3 rout at home that went from bad to worse to what we hope will be the last pitch Jose Valverde throws as a Tiger. Tell me something. Why does Miguel Cabrera not charge the Flaherty grounder in the 4th, two outs, man on 2B, Orioles up 2-0? Mario Impemba on Cabrera waiting on the ball at the bag and attempting to tag Hardy out there: “Really Miggy’s only play.” I don’t think so. I think that was a horrendous error in judgment that sent the game on its way to the toilet. I’ll have nice things to say about Miggy later, but that play is one big black eye. HUGE black eye. Even if the tag at 3rd is the only play, it was still misplayed, at great cost. I will get to the oft-neglected subject of defense next series.

Oh, I get it. The Tigers are a good hitting team. Not a good scoring team. Thanks for clearing that up, Tigers hitters. Anibal is out. That hurts. Austin is back, and way back. That helps. Valverde has reached the point of no return. Avila is on the DL, which may end up saving him his job as the starting catcher. Verlander has become some guy who reminds you a bit of Verlander at times. Roster confusion abounds, with someone about to be sent down due to Alvarez coming up for a start or two for Sanchez (we hope it’s only a start or two, despite the promise shown by Alvarez) and one too many outfielders already here and a possible bullpen shakeup brewing… but it might all be sorted out by the time you read this. Tuiasosopo is still hitting, still hardly playing, still causing much consternation among those of us permanently afflicted with Marcus Thames Disorder. Cracks are showing in the 800-Run Offense and the rotation may be starting to buckle, while the bullpen remains as unsettled and perplexing as always. I’m telling yeh, it’s all building up to something… something that can only be redeemed… with FIRE.

Coleman made an astute observation related to The Late Inning Troubles and Mr. Cabrera, or Cabby, as we like to call him. I’ll paraphrase: Miggy is so clutch before the clutch that he often makes the clutch unnecessary. More about him and Tigers offensive performance overall – impact and efficiency – in the game posts to come.

All right – here goes nothing, eh? Good luck, Jose Alvarez (with the Spirit Of Sanchez to guide you, as per the above). All eyes are upon you, you skid-stopper, you.

POST-GAME: Tigers 4, Red Sox 3. Good game, wrong result THEY DID IT! FIRST 2013 WALKOFF WIN!! Alvarez was as good as last time for 2 innings, then seemed to have a case of realizing where he was and who he was facing. John Lackey was quietly impressive in a Doug Fister “What just happened here?” way. On Jacoby Ellsbury’s 1st inning leadoff HR bid, Hunter made a good catch at the wall look “great” in a “Torii Hunter” kind of way. The suddenly wild Alvarez loaded the bases in the 3rd but wiggled out of it, with Leyland coming out to jaw about the HBP on Victorino that wasn’t really that debatable (see later). David Ortiz had been carved up by Alvarez in the 1st, but caught up to him in the 4th, sending a decent pitch outta here to RF. 1-0 Boston. In the bottom half, our so-called DH left Cabrera standing at 3B after more baserunning genius from Miggy (taking the base on a “WP” that barely got away, C Ryan Lavarnway just unable to find it). Hunter asked for more debate on his debatable defense in the 5th on the Jose Iglesias triple. It looked either lazy or way too safe as he allowed the ball to roll to the RCF wall and circled back around to get it, but in fact he had misread the ball speed on what might have been a long single and taken the wrong route in the first place. It might be a stretch to say this cost the run on the following Ellsbury single, though. 2-0 Red Sox. The Tigers cooked up a fine rally in the bottom half, rescued at the eleventh hour by the speedy Jackson loading the bases with a fine IF single 3B Will Middlebrooks didn’t have a chance to throw him out on, and Hunter delivering by muscling a flare into RF for 2 runs. Then Lackey struck Cabrera out (again). Tied at 2. Putkonen comes in for spent Alvarez to start the 6th, good move, side retired. The amazing run of good bullpen management (GBM) continues in the 7th with 2 outs from Putkonen and then Coke coming in to (stock phrase) carve up Ellsbury. In the Tigers 7th, a rare bad bunt by Infante wastes an out (popped), and the inning goes for naught (great takeout slide by Dirks to bust up a DP, though). GBM ends abruptly in the 8th with Coke coming back out (huh?) to hurl 9 straight balls and, eventually, allow an Ortiz single to make it 3-2 Boston. Smyly to the rescue, GBM restored. Smyly does a allow a “HBP” that isn’t even close to Lavarnway (and Leyland doesn’t argue this one), but gets three outs and leaves ’em loaded. That is what you call a save. Even when the team’s behind. Bottom 8th, Miggy strikes out for the 3rd time (Koji Uehera this time) and Prince breaks hearts with a deep fly to CF that doesn’t get out. Smyly’s 9th was marred only by the Victorino double. Tigers up, down one, last chance. Closer Andrew Bailey in for the Red Sox. Martinez, the guy I was so sick of earlier in the game… well, he can’t get around on a fastball any more, but he still has the eye, and he draws a walk. Kelly in to pinch-run. Peralta goes to two strikes quickly, which he apparently likes to do. Then he pulls off the improbable, the seemingly impossible. He puts it into the bullpen beyond LF. Game over. Win #40 in the books.

ALL-STAR TEAM

C Pena
1B Fielder
2B Infante
SS Peralta
3B Middlebrooks
LF Dirks
CF Jackson
RF Hunter
DH Ortiz
P Lackey

RULE 5 DRAFT PICK: Drew Smyly

DFA: Phil Coke