blah. That’s my response to last night’s game. So blah that we’ll skip the regular format, and get a new fresh post up ASAP.
Yes, JV looks off, but as I discussed before, he’s actually been pretty good. Well, last night was bad, but I’m not worried.
I have faith in Ricky P to pitch us to victory. Four straight quality starts with a 1.33 ERA and .70 (not a typo) WHIP during that time. Orioles have a strong lineup, but Porcello has been pitching well.
Series winning lineup coming soon…
39-29, 1st place, 5 games up on Kansas City who is 8-2 over their last 10 and has passed Cle to move into 2nd.
Good solid win yesterday. Scherzer was good, but not great, on his way to his ML leading 10th win. I don’t think anyone would argue with me on that. Thank about that for a second, the guy Ks 10 and allows 1 run over 6 innings, and it’s only a “good” outing for him. He was incredible in jams, as the one hit the Orioles got with a RISP off of him only advanced a runner to third. A high K rate will strand a lot of runners. Scherzer would be the best pitcher on a number of staffs around the Majors.
The offense pounded out 14 hits, though only 2 of them were XBH, including the Miggy HR and another two-bagger for Johnny Doubles.
JV climbs the hill tonight looking for his 10th win. Wait, he only has 8 wins? He didn’t get a win last time out? It’s okay, I expect he’ll be at 10 in 6 days. JV is 8-0 vs. the O’s with a 2.93 ERA.
Thanks to an injury to Jason Hammel, the Tigers face Zach Britton tonight. Britton is a struggling lefty who was in the majors for all of 2011, then roughly 1/2 of 2012, and will be making his second start in 2013. His career WHIP is 1.49, his career ERA is 4.85, and he has a career K rate of just 6.19. The Tigers should have their chances early and often tonight.
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Saw some good stuff on the web today, so an expanded few notes:
– My brother gives pretty good gifts, but Justin Verlander gives better ones.
– According to Fangraphs, the Tigers 2013 WAR projects to be the third best of all time. Yes, your 2013 Tigers are being mentioned in the same breath as the ’27 and ’39 Yankees. Even more interesting is the current Tigers WAR rankings: Cabrera (4), Sanchez (3.4), Verlander (3.0), Scherzer (3.0) and Fister (2.7). I really liked this quote:
“The rotation is obscene. Dave wrote about this at the end of May. With Rick Porcello suddenly striking batters out, all five of the starters would be top starters on other teams, and Drew Smyly isn’t bad as insurance. Cabrera, in his prime, is one of the best hitters ever, and Prince Fielder is obviously dangerous, and look at those performances from Avila and Martinez. Avila stands to improve, and so does Martinez, and if they don’t, the Tigers could make roster upgrades as they think about the playoffs. Nick Castellanos appears to have figured out Triple-A, clearing the way for him to figure out the majors, and that’s good young support.”
– With Jose Alvarez filling in on Thurs for Sanchez, who gets sent down? Likely to be an outfielder, says James Schmehl of MLive. Also note Schmehl’s distaste for the bunt and his reasoning why (3rd question down).
– I think that it’s safe to say that Valverde has officially lost the everyday closer role. Though my guess is that he’ll still get first shot in a close game.
– Mike Heath is old enough to be a grandfather?
Tonight’s Series Clinching Lineup (remember, we gotta win series):
1. Jackson, CF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Peralta, SS
7. Tuiasosopo, LF
8. Infante, 2B
9. Pena, C
38-29, 1st place, 4.5 games up. Which is the 2nd biggest division lead in the majors.
The Tigers took care of business in Minnesota taking the three game series with the win yesterday. Good teams have to win series against no so good teams. So good job, boys.
A much more formidable opponent rolls into the D tonight, a place that has been very difficult for opposing teams this year. The Tigers are an AL high 12 games over at Comerica this year (22-10), mostly thanks to a prolific home offense which was mentioned in Coleman’s opener yesterday. Here are some selected home stats with their ML ranks in parenthesis:
– Avg. .302 (1)
– OBP. .370 (1)
– Slg. .455 (3rd)
But again (I think I brought this up a few weeks ago) the home XBHs aren’t there – as they are 17th, 16th, and 16th, in 2B, 3B, and HR, respectively. This is easy to pinpoint by looking at home/away splits for individual hitters. Cabby and Fielder are both mashing home and away, but Peralta (128 points), Infante (239), Avila (145) and Martinez (86) all are experiencing significant dropoffs in slugging away from Comerica. I guess the other way of looking at this is that Peralta, Infante hit at all-star levels at home! And Martinez and Avila hit at near league average levels!
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The Orioles come into town at 40-30 after having taken 2/3 at home against the 1st place Red Sox. The Orioles lead the majors with 15 series wins in 2013. Jake Arrieta gets the start in place of Jason Hammel, who is getting an extra day to recover from illness. Arrieta lost his starting job back in April after posting a 6.63 ERA and failing to reach the 6th inning in 4 starts. This will be his first major league appearance since then.
Mad Max Scherzer could set Tigers history tonight…no Tigers starter has ever started a season 10-0. Over his last 5 starts, Max has a microscopic .69 WHIP, a 2.00 ERA, and 38 ks in 36 innings. He was given a no decision against the Orioles when they walked off with a bomb off of Valverde. Max hasn’t forgotten I’m sure.
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The big news of the day is that Anibal Sanchez (strained right shoulder) and Alex Avila (deep contusion on his left forearm) were put on the 15-day DL today; though I don’t think this comes as a surprise to anyone.
Here’s your it happens other places too note for the date: Ron Washington told reporters yesterday that even “Detroit lost 7/8 at one point in time this season”. Panic is sweeping the Metroplex regarding the Rangers.
Tonight’s Lineup:
1. Jackson, CF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Peralta, SS
7. Dirks, LF
8. Infante, 2B
9. Pena, C
Detroit Tigers: 37-29, 1st Place (4.5 ahead of Cleveland).
Here are a few of the things that we know, statistically, about the Detroit Tiger offense at this point in the season:
- They struggle on the road (.259/.726, vs. .302/.825 at home).
- They are more likely than most teams to score 2 runs or fewer (18 times so far).
- They are more likely than most teams to score 7 runs or more (21 times so far).
- They struggle mightily in late innings, particularly in late and close situations (league worst; see yesterday’s post).
Let’s set aside the more specific late and close statistics for now, and just look at the overall late inning statistics. In innings 7-9 the Tiger hitters come out 14th best in OPS out of 15 teams (luckily that 15th team is Cleveland):
So once it hits the 7th inning, the Detroit Tigers become the American League team least likely to score. It has been said that the bullpen problems put pressure on the hitters. Doesn’t it seem likely that knowing that there are no more runs coming from the offense also puts pressure on the bullpen?
Here are the individual numbers, ranked by OPS, for inning 7-9 hitting:
Quick reaction: let’s have more Tuiasosopo!
You’ll notice above that On Base is the only category in which the Tigers are decent (8th). In other words, somebody is getting a lot of late inning walks. Those somebodies are Cabrera (14) and Fielder (12), which is why they are so high up on the OPS ranking. In other words, once it gets late in games, teams are pretty much done pitching to those two.
Apparently they have plenty bases open by the time Cabrera comes up, with Hunter struggling with a .214 late inning on base percentage. Torii was the biggest surprise for me when I pulled these numbers up. Here are his splits:
So there it is, over the course of a game Torii Hunter goes from a .400 hitter to an average hitter to a pitcher trying to bat. Is it fatigue? He seems to have lost a step in the outfield. Maybe Leyland knows what he is doing giving Hunter frequent days off?
*****
Today Doug Fister takes on the Pajama Man, P.J. Walters. These two faced off on May 25, where Walters bested Fister in a 3-2 victory, sprinkling 8 hits over 6 innings. Pena had a big game against Walters (3-for-4), and Peralta hit a solo shot. Walters has pitched well since then, and has a 2.49 ERA for the season. As in his first outing against Detroit, guys do get on base against him–his WHIP is 1.46–but they don’t seem to score. Fister has his fingers crossed–the Tigers have put up a total of 4 runs in his last 4 starts.
*****
Today’s Player of the Pre-game: Let’s go with Dad here. Happy Father’s Day everybody!
Today’s Where’s Pena? Lineup:
No, that is not a mistake, Avila gets the start again, despite Pena having the 3-for-4 day against Walters May 25. I guess Avila is “due.”
Detroit Tigers: 37-28, 1st Place (4.5 ahead of Cleveland).
Who the (expletive) should Leyland close with? (to quote the skipper). Well it looks like the answer, for now, is going to be Jose Valverde, who is still the closer. (Although it should be noted that Valverde’s appearance was not a save situation, and that Phil Coke was warming up in the bullpen). Valverde himself was campaigning for an appearance, and “wasn’t shy” about it.
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In Friday’s pre game talk Leyland followed up his “who should I close with?” rant by putting a little heat on his offense. When someone mentioned that the offense seems to fall off in late innings, Leyland went off: “Why don’t you write about it?” Leyland said. “You write about Valverde. You write about the (expletive) closer. Write about that. Write about it…We have to improve in close games,” Leyland said. “We haven’t done very well in close games. We’ve been terrible.”
That IS the other side of the poor record in one-run games (7-11) and extra inning games (2-7): if the offense regularly disappears in the late and close situations, eventually a crack will show somewhere in the bullpen. It is possible to have your bullpen give up a run or two and still win games.
Here is what happens to the Tiger hitters in “Late and Close” situations:
They also have scored a mere 23 “late and close” runs, which is also dead last (Baltimore is best with 72).
Blame can be evenly spread, even Cabrera isn’t immune. Here are the team late and close BA/OPS numbers.
*****
All that aside, today’s matchup projects to be one that favors the Tigers. Detroit sends out Anibal Sanchez, who was a Joe Mauer single away from no-hitting the Twins the last time he faced them. The Tigers face Deduno, whom they knocked for 6 runs in 5 innings. Dirks had 3 hits against Deduno in that game, and Kelly hit a home run, and they are both in the lineup today, in case you thought nobody paid attention to these things
*****
Today’s Player of the Pre-game: Victor Martinez. Teams have been putting Cabrera on base, and Fielder has been making them pay. Deduno pitched around Fielder the last time the two teams played (2 walks), and Victor couldn’t capitalize. He is likely to get another chance tonight…hopefully not when the game is late and close (see list above).
Today’s Donkified Lineup:
Detroit Tigers: 36-28, 1st Place (4.5 ahead of Cleveland).
Well the Tigers had a much-needed day off to shake off their latest one-run loss (their 11th), a 2nd consecutive Valverde home run derby which even had manager Jim Leyland playing hot potato. When Leyland says “who the (expletive) should I close with?” he does have a point. It wasn’t Leyland’s idea to have Valverde as a closer, and he has tried everyone from Coke to Benoit to Alburquerque to Rondon in the role, with nothing but problems. And when you look at the trade options Dombrowski has (Papelbon?) I can imagine he has his own expletives.
This Closer creature is a mysterious beast, often record-setting one year and a scapegoat the next. And it is also a fairly new creature, one perhaps spawned by a baseball writer who created the Save statistic (thanks to StorminNorman$ for the link, I recommend reading this). One thing in the article that’s hard to argue with: Billy Beane’s point that you can look at all the probabilities you want, but closing a game is an emotion magnet, with the fans, the writers, and even the players drawn in. There is something about being ahead in the 9th and then losing that just does not sit well. The fan comments on blogs are one thing, but even the Tiger players looked demoralized Wednesday.
So the logical answer to Leyland’s question might be that you don’t need to “close with anybody.” Does it really make sense to only use who is supposedly your best relief pitcher in “save situations,” games that statistically you are overwhelmingly going to win no matter who pitches? It is almost a self-perpetuating system: closers are judged–and paid–by numbers of saves, then used in such a way to maximize their numbers of saves without a real thought whether this is really the best way to use them. Oh, and they only pitch the 9th and only the 9th inning.
This is not to suggest that there is any chance of Jim Leyland doing anything other than having a Setup Guy/Closer system. In that light, I’ll throw this in: last night Rondon K’d the side in the 9th for a save for the Mud Hens.
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Just for fun:
World Champion 1968 Detroit Tigers bullpen:
Saves:
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In other news, the Tigers signed Johnathan Crawford, their top pick in the draft, along with 18 others, including Ben “Little Bro” Verlander.
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As for tonight, the big news is that Ajax is back! To make room for Jackson, Avisail Garcia has been returned to Toledo. There is also a guy in Center for Minnesota who may look familiar: Clete Thomas gets the start for the Twins tonight.
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Today’s Player of the Pre-game: Austin Jackson. Let’s see if Austin can wake up the road offense. He is only 4-for18 career against Diamond, but I am predicting he comes back with a flourish.
Today’s Welcome Back Ajax Lineup:
Avila gets the start even with the lefty pitching; Infante works his way up into the 8th spot.
36-27, first place 5.5 GA, winning streak at one.
Commenter mcb brought up an interesting point about the importance of Torii Hunter’s play Monday night on the Salvador Perez 2-run triple. I agree that a conventional back-up of CF Avisail Garcia would have held Perez to a double. Two runs would have scored either way, but with Perez on 2B instead of 3B, the score might have stayed 2-2, which might have changed the complexion of the game later. However, in my view, Hunter was coming on hard and measuring his own play on the ball – no fault there – just before Garcia made the sudden dive and stab at it. There was no time and nothing else for Torii to do but what he did – steer clear and circle back for the ball Garcia missed. All might have gone better, perhaps, if Garcia had yielded to Hunter – who was coming toward a throw in if it dropped – to begin with.
I’m reminded of a couple plays earlier in the season. There was a flyball hit to deep LCF that fell between Andy Dirks and Austin Jackson, won the game for the Twins. That one just made it out there too fast and fell in no man’s land. No fault. Another time (can’t remember the opponent), Matt Tuiasosopo pulled away at the last moment on a flyball hit to LCF nearly to the fence, as Jackson was coming over hard for it himself. Tuiasosopo had a play on that one and gave way out of caution, as a collision must have seemed imminent. I blamed Jackson on that one. I know he can cover a lot of ground, but he was trespassing there.
WRAPPING UP OUR BULLPEN REPORT CARD THRU 60
TIGERS BULLPEN
*172 IP, 4-11 W-L, 3.82 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, .231 BAA, 0.83 HR/9, 9.6/3.9 K/BB-9, 13-21 SvO
205 pitched-in-inning appearances
24.4% RUNS ALLOWED (50 times)
33.7% REACHES/ADVANCES BUT NO RUNS ALLOWED (69 times)
41.9% NOTHING BUT OUTS (86 times)
75.6% NO DAMAGE (155 times)
OTHER BULLPENS (AL AVERAGE?) AGAINST THE TIGERS
279 pitched-in-inning appearances
24.7% RUNS ALLOWED (69 times)
40.9% REACHES/ADVANCES BUT NO RUNS ALLOWED (114 times)
34.4% NOTHING BUT OUTS (96 times)
75.3% NO DAMAGE (210 times)
KANSAS CITY ROYALS BULLPEN (A GOOD ONE)
*155 IP, 12-9 W-L, 2,79 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, .225 BAA, 0.87 HR/9, 8.3/3.3 K/BB-9, 17-25 SvO
184 pitched-in-inning appearances
21.7% RUNS ALLOWED (40 times)
39.7% REACHES/ADVANCES BUT NO RUNS ALLOWED (73 times)
38.6% NOTHING BUT OUTS (71 times)
78.3% NO DAMAGE (144 times)
* Thru 62 games
Note the rather slim margin between average and good. Interesting.
DETROIT INDIVIDUAL
Let’s abbreviate REACHES/ADVANCES as “H” and NOTHING BUT OUTS as “Z” and then rank Tigers relievers in the NO DAMAGE category (the RUNS ALLOWED ranking running exactly opposite, of course):
PORCELLO 100% (Z-100%) 2 Innings Pitched In
ORTEGA 87% (H-47%, Z-40%) 15 IPI
BENOIT 86% (H-41%, Z-45%) 29 IPI
SMYLY 85% (H-40%, Z-45%) 40 IPI
VALVERDE 81% (H-31%, Z-50%) 16 IPI
PUTKONEN 80% (H-40%, Z-40%) 10 IPI
COKE 72% (H-20%, Z-52%) 25 IPI
DOWNS 71% (H-21%, Z-50%) 28 IPI
ALBURQUERQUE 68% (H-42%, Z-26%) 19 IPI
REED 67% (H-67%) 3 IPI
DOTEL 57% (H-28%, Z-28%) 7 IPI
RONDON 50% (H-25%, Z-25%) 4 IPI
VILLAREAL 14% (H-14%) 7 IPI
So… there’s something to chew on. I’ll chew on it for a while myself, and be back with a different subject of statistical inquiry next time around.
Post-game to follow.
POST-GAME: Royals 3, Tigers 2 (10 innings). Jose Valverde is not a popular fellow. Let us not forget, however, that Smyly allowed Hosmer to reach. And then there are all those missed opportunities and a few crappy, crucial at bats from hitters who ought to know better. Several culprits in this one. Verlander was dominant, more so than in many a game where he tossed double-digit K’s (8 today). James Shields was quite good as well, and it was another duel between the two, but the Tigers managed to find a few chinks in Shields’s armor. The story of the game – before it fell apart – was the outstanding defense behind both pitchers. (Well, Peralta’s sailing throw that would have been an error but for a lucky bounce back doesn’t count – but he made a great stop on Butler’s grounder to begin the play). There was 1B Eric Hosmer on Tuiasosopo’s scorching liner. There was RF David Lough robbing Cabrera of a double with a lunge and tumble catch for an out. Santiago at 2B made two outstanding plays in the 3rd. Fielder snatching Elliot Johnson’s liner and getting the unassisted DP at 1B. The enviable range of SS Alcides Escobar on Don Kelly’s bid for an RBI single up the middle to get the 3rd out of the 8th. The Tigers had chipped in runs in the 1st (Fielder bloop scores Garcia) and 5th (back to back doubles by Tui and Pena), and did get 1 run from a fine game of small ball (3 sac bunts??). After 7, the mighty Justin seemed in line for his 9th win, bullpen willing. Before we beat on them, let’s mention the missed opportunities. Martinez GIDP with 2 on in the 1st. Pena at 3B, one out in the 5th, bupkus from Garcia and Hunter. Tuiasosopo K with 2 on in the 6th to end the threat and inning (not a bad AB, though). Pena on 2B, one out in the 7th, Garcia and Hunter AGAIN (punched out by Shields). 2 on and none out in the 8th, nothing from Martinez-Peralta-Kelly. Now it’s the bottom of the 9th, 2-0 Tigers. I was so happy to see Smyly start the inning. I shouldn’t have been, because Hosmer found his first pitch as predictable as I did. Failure against the one guy he was going to face – not good. Nervous time. Valverde in. It went well for a while. He was pitching pretty well. Got Butler to chase the high heat for a legitimate K this time. 2 outs! Hosmer takes 2B, though. Only Mr. 3 K’s (against Verlander) Lorenzo Cain to get. The count goes to 0-2. You don’t throw what Valverde did here. Cain ties it, 2-run homer to LF. Here’s where it gets really ugly. Next batter Lough, groundball, Miggy flat out drops the 3rd out. Coke comes in. Before a pitch is thrown, Coke goes to 1B – they’ve got Lough at 1B hung up! PRINCE now flat out drops the 3rd out, and Lough takes 2B. In the 10th, Hunter and Cabrera looked foolish against Greg Holland, and Fielder not much better. Against Coke (why?), the Royal small-balled their way to the inevitable two-out walkoff hit (RBI single by Hosmer). Tigers now 2-7 in extras. One of the most demoralizing losses of the season, an absolutely GUTLESS late-inning showing. On this hot and breezy day, some of the Tigers couldn’t stand it and left the kitchen early. If Leyland didn’t read them the Riot Act about this one, he must be saving the rage for later.
THE ALL-STAR TEAM
C Pena
1B Hosmer
2B Santiago
SS Escobar
3B Moustakas
LF Tuiasosopo
CF Cain
RF Lough
DH Butler
P Verlander
RULE 5 DRAFT PICK: James Shields, Miguel Tejada
DFA: Jose Valverde
35-27, first place 5.5 GA, losing streak at 1.
Evan Reed is up, Jose Alvarez is down, and I think Jose Ortega is still down, though I’m not sure, and I’m not even sure if he was down to begin with. Losing track, too tired to count. (That’s funny, considering what follows….)
MORE ON THE BULLPEN REPORT CARD THRU 60 GAMES
I really didn’t offer much explanation, did I? Some is warranted.
Innings pitched in is the basis for all of that. It’s not the same as innings pitched. Drew Smyly had pitched in 40 different innings. That’s 40 opportunities for results, the basis for all the percentages.
I went in thinking that there were four basic Bullpen Appearance Outcomes: 1. Nothing but outs. 2. Reaches/advances allowed but no runs. 3. Runs allowed (who they are charged to is not a consideration; allowing them is the sin). 4. Reaches/advances allowed that later scored off someone else. I now realize that this last creates two appearances where there was in fact only one; it’s redundant and irrelevant, and should be corrected for (not a major adjustment). My figures here and when I sum this all up tomorrow will reflect that correction.
Anyway, looking at Mr. Smyly, we see that his results from 40 innings pitched in are: 18 times nothing but outs, 16 times reaches/advances but no runs allowed (by him), and 6 times runs allowed by him (not necessarily 6 runs in total). So runs score on him 15% of the time, and don’t 85% of the time. Additionally, he’s lights out a full 45% of the time, though this does not speak to whether he got one out or three. In all, his comparative report card score will indicate some things that were obvious and some that were not, and it’s the clues provided by the latter I find interesting.
I mentioned that it was difficult to measure how the Tigers bullpen as a whole stacks up against others without a standard. The next step to that end is to look at how other bullpens have performed against the Tigers. We will assume that after 60 games, the Tigers have now, overall, seen the opposing “average MLB (mostly AL) bullpen.” We’ll leave aside the fact that the Tigers are an above-average hitting team that is far below average in the later innings and consider them average as well.
TIGERS BULLPEN
205 pitched-in-inning appearances
24.4% RUNS ALLOWED
33.7% REACHES/ADVANCES BUT NO RUNS ALLOWED
41.9% NOTHING BUT OUTS
75.6% NO DAMAGE
OPPOSING BULLPENS FACING THE TIGERS
279 pitched-in-inning appearances
24.7% RUNS ALLOWED
40.9% REACHES/ADVANCES BUT NO RUNS ALLOWED
34.4% NOTHING BUT OUTS
75.3% NO DAMAGE
Superficially, it would appear that the Tigers bullpen might actually be average or, in some ways, better than average. Huh. Then again, they don’t have to face the Tigers hitters, either. Note the difference in pitched-in-inning appearances. Some clues there.
The next step will be to compare the Tigers bullpen with a good one, one the Tigers bullpen might aspire to emulate, perhaps. Let’s see what that comparison looks like, and what it does to our provisional understanding of “average.” A good place to start might be with…
The Kansas City Royals.
POST-GAME: Tigers 3, Royals 2. Make no mistake. This one was a gift from home plate ump Jordan Baker. Almost makes up for the 8-6 loss to Toronto where Dana DeMuth was calling bottom of the 9th balls strikes in the driving rain just to get the game in, costing the Tigers their last slim chance. Baker’s strike zone was inconsistent all game, though not biased. Scherzer started out pitching the 1st inning like a drowning man, but recovered. Wade Davis pitched well enough to let the Tigers beat themselves, I suppose. Suddenly hot CF Kelly started the scoring with an RBI single in the 2nd, but a bigger rally was snuffed by an egregiously bad send the runner home call by Brookens (and he’d been so good lately). Infante was a dead duck at home plate. In the 5th, a hustling Dirks just beat the DP relay throw from Alcides Escobar to IB to score Infante and make it 2-0 Tigers. Max had a little blip in the 5th, allowing a leadoff HR (first MLB) to David Lough and then an RBI single to Escobar to even the score at 2-2, but Dirks saved further damage with a monster throw to nail Escobar at 2B with help from Infante (close play). Things got interesting in the 7th, with pinch-hit appearances from Garcia and Tuiasosopo setting up a remarkable load the bases after two outs rally. Against a vaunted bullpen. Ending in a Hunter swinging strikeout. Remarkably, the Tigers didn’t nod off after this. The 8th started with a Cabrera HBP, and he scored the go-ahead run on a Martinez sac fly. (The Tigers even threatened more in the 9th. Go figure.) Benoit pitched a good ol’ Benoit 8th – one baserunner, three outs. 3-2 Tigers, Royals up in the bottom of the 9th against closer Valverde. Who was having a hard time throwing strikes. Tanking. To the point where Coke was warming up. Oh, it was only a single, a PR, a stolen base, no outs, Tiger Killer Billy Butler up, and Valverde not throwing strikes. The count went to 3-2 on Butler. There was a foul ball or two. Then Valverde threw ball four inside. Clearly inside. Time to reach for the Coke. Wait. Baker called it strike three. Butler argues, gets ejected. Understandishable. A couple uneventful outs, Valverde gets the save, the Tigers get the win. Ha ha. Oh man, we’d be screaming bloody murder about this.
THE ALL-STAR TEAM
C Perez
1B Hosmer
2B Infante
SS Escobar
3B Cabrera
LF Dirks
CF Kelly
RF Lough
DH Martinez
P Scherzer
RULE 5 DRAFT PICK: Matt Tuiasosopo
DFA: Alex Avila, Jose Valverde, Jordan Baker
Congratulations to Jose Alvarez on a fine 1st MLB victory yesterday. Thank you, Donkey Kong! Thanks also to Miguel Cabrera for the comedy of throwing his gum at Ryan Raburn rounding the bases after the HR. (It was Raburn who hit the HR, unfortunately. Sorry for the confusion. But it would have been funny either way.)
The Detroit Tigers (35-26, 5.5 games up in 1st place, winning streak at 4), after a 5-1 home stand that we mostly complained about (ha ha), begin their latest road trip with a three-game series at Kaufman Stadium against the Kansas City Royals (28-32, 3rd place, 6.5 GB). The two teams split a pair earlier this season when the Royals looked tough to beat. Since then, Detroit has ascended in a two steps forward (starting pitching), one step back (bullpen and where have the bats gone) manner that characterizes the entire season, while Kansas City, I have heard, has fallen from grace largely due to the disappearance of its offense. Kaufman Stadium, you may recall, is where Miggy got the standing O last October when his Triple Crown achievement was announced. Classy. Although I seem to also recall some not-so-classy reaction from the KC crowd at the 2012 All-Star Game that also made headlines. Don’t remember what that was about.
Monday. June 10, 8:10 PM EDT: RHP Doug Fister (5-3, 3.27) v. RHP Jeremy Guthrie (6-3, 3.66)
We all remember Fister’s 9 straight Ks against the Royals (at Comerica) last season. What we’ve forgotten is that his very next start was also against them, at Kaufman Stadium, and while it wasn’t a disaster, it was labored and ineffective, and he lasted only 4.1 (believe it or not, he also hit a batter). Guthrie happened to be his opponent that game, and picked up the win with a quality start. Current Tigers have a lot of history with Guthrie, and they have – unequivocally – hit him hard. Current Royals have a goodly amount of PA vs. Fister, but have hit him for average more than damage.
Tuesday, June 11, 8:10 PM EDT: RHP Max Scherzer (8-0, 3.24) v. RHP Wade Davis (3-5, 5.66)
These pitchers faced each other in Detroit on April 24, and neither fared well in a game the Tigers eventually won (that also marked the return of Jose Valverde). Scherzer made his poorest start of the season (in 5 IP) but still picked up the win, while things just kind of progressively fell apart for Davis in his 3.2, with assistance from an untimely error by 3B Eric Hosmer Mike Moustakas (duh). It should be noted that .197-at-the-time V-Mart was 2 for 3 with 2 RBI off Davis.
Wednesday, June 12, 2:10 PM EDT: RHP Justin Verlander (8-4, 3.71) v. RHP James Shields (2-6, 2.81)
The last Verlander/Shields matchup was April 25 at Comerica, and it was a good and evenly matched one with no decision for either in a game later decided (in the 10th) by one of the more notable Tigers bullpen implosions this season.
WEATHER: The KC area forecast is all warmth and sunshine through Wednesday.
All stats current as of June 8.
MEET THE ROYALS: HITTING: .258 AVG (Tigers .283), .312 OBP (.350), .371 SLG (.434), .682 OPS (.785), 232 R (313), 31 HR (66), 45 of 55 SB (19 of 24). STARTING PITCHING: 3.86 ERA (Tigers 3.51), .268 BAA (.241), 1.32 WHIP (1.15), 289/110 K/BB (411/90), 54 HR (24). BULLPEN: 150 IP (Tigers 169), 11-9 W-L (4-11), 2.88 ERA (3.89), .228 BAA (.230), 1.21 WHIP (1.29), 138/55 K/BB (180/74), 15 HR (16). DEFENSE: .983 FPCT (Tigers .990), .694 DefEff (.682), 50 DP (44), 69% SBPCT (78%), OF ASSISTS 16 (6), UNEARNED RUNS 23 (13).
What should give the Tigers the edge is hitting. Aside from DH Billy Butler and LF Alex Gordon, production from the lineup has become a struggle for KC. You can see from the 31 HR and .371 SLG that the Royals are a team in need of manufactured runs that aren’t being manufactured. However, Detroit bats had best not go into famine mode here. The advantage swings to KC if the scores are low, and even if the Tigers managed to come away with 2 of 3, we don’t want another Mariners series, do we? No. We want domination, or at least two solid thumpings.
A TIGERS BULLPEN REPORT CARD THRU 60 GAMES
What the overall odds (Tigers 2013) are for the following per-pitcher, per-inning bullpen appearance results:
40% Nothing but outs
33% Reaches/advances but no runs during or after
24% Runs allowed
*3% Reaches/advances that later scored
73% No damage (combining the first two categories)
NOTHING BUT OUTS
(100% Porcello in 2 IP)
52% Coke
50% Valverde
46% Downs
44% Benoit
43% Smyly
40% Ortega
40% Putkonen
(Hey, the above is was the current bullpen. What a coincidence.)
29% Dotel
25% Alburquerque
25% Rondon
*0% Reed
*0% Villareal
REACHES/ADVANCES BUT NO RUNS DURING/AFTER
20% Downs
20% Coke
25% Rondon
29% Dotel
31% Valverde
38% Smyly
40% Benoit
40% Alburquerque
40% Putkonen
47% Ortega
57% Villareal
67% Reed
REACHES/ADVANCES THAT LATER SCORED
3% Benoit
5% Smyly
5% Alburquerque
7% Downs
(All others 0%)
RUNS ALLOWED
13% Benoit
13% Ortega
14% Smyly
19% Valverde
20% Putkonen
27% Downs
28% Coke
30% Alburquerque
33% Reed
43% Dotel
43% Villareal
50% Rondon
NO-DAMAGE % (Porcello at 100%, of course)
87% Ortega
83% Benoit
81% Smyly
81% Valverde
80% Putkonen
72% Coke
67% Downs
67% Reed
65% Alburquerque
57% Dotel
50% Rondon
14% Villareal
Tell me your bottom line on all this. Are we being too hard on the Tigers pen? Without MLB-wide averages on % of “Nothing but outs,” etc., that’s a hard question to answer. For Jose Valverde in particular, it’s clear enough that his results have been good, and yet we decry his lack of stuff and forecast doom. And I obviously need to rethink my position on Benoit and Putkonen, among others. (Jose Ortega has been optioned to Toledo to make room for fill-in starter Jose Alvarez, by the way. You’d imagine that this is just a temporary roster shuffle and that Ortega will be back, pending the return to the rotation of formerly sore-shouldered Anibal Sanchez.)
Austin Jackson, who has missed nearly half the season now with the hamstring injury (the caution is understandishable), is to begin a rehab assignment with Toledo today (Monday). Meanwhile, the even longer-absent Octavio Dotel has become a popular attraction at early summer cookouts, his elbow apparently so inflamed that he’s able to grill burgers and brats on his bare arm. Dotel has been placed anew on the DL, I hear. 60-day.
Coleman’s game post/game result success continues. He’s 15-8, while Kevin is back in the race at 12-9 and I bring up the rear at 8-9 (not my fault, I tell you). I think it’s only fair to ask Coleman to provide tonight’s lineup(s) and rub some of his good luck off on this game.
Post-game will be right back here.
POST-GAME: Royals 3, Tigers 2. Well, you knew where this one was going after 3, didn’t you? Tigers fall behind, they tend to stay behind. But they were on top 2-0 first, on the strength of Cabrera’s long HR to LF in the 3rd off of Jeremy Guthrie with Hunter at 2B. Detroit was hitting Guthrie all evening. Trouble is, the balls kept ending up in the outfielder’s gloves, however deep or shallow they may have been hit. 10 flyball outs for Guthrie, 0 strikeouts. With the first run support of any kind in ages to work with, Fister promptly gave it all back in the bottom half. The mistake that cost him the game was the pitch to Salvador Perez that ended up in the RCF gap for a game-tying triple. Don’t miss Austin Jackson? See Garcia’s diving attempt? Now you do. The go-ahead run for KC scored with Perez at 3B and Lorenzo Cain beating out a grounder to Peralta at SS. Don’t fault Jhonny. Credit Cain – effective contact + speed. Strength of the Royals, weakness of the Tigers. It can make a difference in games like this, and obviously did. Fister (13 groundball outs and 2 DPs behind him) pitched well, and Guthrie pitched well. The flyball game turned out to be the better approach, and Doug came away with an 8-inning CG loss. So if there’s a bullpen to blame, it’s the other team’s this time. The last serious chance for Detroit came in the 7th, men on 1st and 2nd, one out when Aaron Crow relieved Guthrie. Cabrera’s swinging strikeout against Crow was the last gasp. What had led off the inning suddenly loomed larger – Infante had been robbed of a base hit by LF Alex Gordon’s diving catch. The defensive play of the game for the Tigers was the K-CS DP in the 4th that ended the inning. Alcides Escobar took strike three and Chris Getz took off for 2B. Avila’s throw was strong but to the SS side of the bag, and it took a strong effort by Infante to get the runner on a very close call that the Tigers might have caught a break on. That was a turning point that kept it close. Oddly, the Tigers didn’t seem to know there were 3 outs right away. Maybe no one heard the strikeout call.
THE ALL-STAR TEAM
C Perez
1B Hosmer
2B Infante
SS Peralta
3B Cabrera
LF Gordon
CF Cain
RF Hunter
DH Butler
P Guthrie
RULE 5 DRAFT PICK: Aaron Crow
DFA: No one, really. Maybe Leyland for not pinch-hitting Tui somewhere…
34-26, 4.5 games up on Cle.
(never mind the bad digital editing in the image above)
Another good win for the Tigers yesterday afternoon, another poor showing for Valverde. Fielder’s bases clearing double put the Tigers in the lead for good, and Ricky P turned in his 3 straight quality start (and 7th in 10 games) to bring his ERA below 9. He’s a fantastic #5 guy.
Remember all that bad luck I talked about that JV is getting? Well Valverde’s getting all of the good luck. His BABIP against this year is .179 and his FIP is 5.62, yet his ERA is only 4.02. Over his last 5 appearances, Valverde has allowed 9 hits and 1 walk in 4 2/3. That’s a 2.14 WHIP. His (mild success) is a fluke and unless he starts throwing his splitter more often, I don’t see anyway for him to remain the closer for much longer.
Today’s replacement starter is Jose Alvarez. To me, bringing up Alvarez instead of using Smyly (who is well rested), signals to me that Smyly is in the long-term plans for the Tigers. If they were hoping to flip him for a reliever, he’d be auditioning today. My guess is still that Porcello will be dealt for a reliever and a prospect in the near future. We can win the Central with Valverde, but we can’t win the AL with him as our closer.
Alvarez is a 24 year old lefty who has been phenomenal so far this year at Toledo.He currnetly leads the International League with 76 strikeouts and ranks second with a 2.42 ERA. Alvarez was signed to a minor league contract last November after 3 years in the Red Sox farm system. He took steps backwards at ages 22 and 23, which is why Boston let him go. He doesn’t have much time to figure it out, but he’s making strides.
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A few notes:
– Walk Miguel Cabrera and get burned. Following Cabrera’s last 15 walks, Fielder is 9-14 with a BB and 13 RBI.
– Great article on Grantland today about Chris Davis and the adjustments he’s made. Chris Davis is fascinating to me stemming from his time in Texas, but he looks to be Miggy’s early season MVP co-candidate.
Today’s Series Sweeping Sunday Lineup.
1. Dirks, LF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Martinez, DH
6. Kelly, CF
7. Avila, A
8. Santiago, SS
9. Infante, 2B
33-26, 1st place, 3.5 games ahead of Cle.
Good win last night, great effort by everyone except for Jose Valverde. He was flat out awful. I am certain that he won’t be closing games much longer. I can’t help but wonder if Valverde is the cause for the Verlander/Leyland miff from last night. (Miff seems appropriate, as i don’t think it qualifies as an imbroglio). In case you missed it, Verlander whimsically sought to avoid the Leyland “good game, you’re done” shake after a 7 pitch 7th last night (and rightfully so). Leyland didn’t find it to be very funny. I wouldn’t generally classify Leyland as having a “sense of humor”, but Verlander’s smirk let the whole world know what he was thinking. But I think that Leyland’s reaction after the game may have been caused by Valverde’s home run derby tryout. Here’s what I’m thinking:
The Tigers have a comfortable lead, at home, against the division rival, for now. A 4 run lead with your ace on the mound and at a reasonable pitch count is no time to think about your closer. But because of Valverde’s struggles, Leyland has to get him some easy work. So he makes the decision to go Benoit/Valverde to make it look like it was his plan to do a standard 8 – 9 routine. Then Valverde comes in and gets lit up like the 4th of July, so JL is in no mood to discuss JV (or get second guessed on anything). Thus his response.
DD – the clock is ticking.
*****************
A few quick notes.
– Tigers are 20-10 at home this year, 13-16 on the road.
– Tigers starts have posted a quality start in 13 of the team’s last 14 starts, and their ERA is 2.58 during that stretch.
– Anibal Sanchez scratched for tomorrow, Jose Alvarez up. More on him tomorrow.
I’m looking for VMart to keep up his hot bat, as he’s a career .500 hitter off of Carrasco (tiny print – that’s 1-2). To follow-up on yesterday’s JV post, that could have very easily been a 1 ER game. We’re seeing Hunter’s range diminish by the game. Still a very valuable player, but that’s just aging.
Today’s Lineup:
1. Dirks, LF
2. Hunter, RF
3. Cabrera, 3B
4. Fielder, 1B
5. Peralta, SS
6. Peralta, SS
7. Avila, C
8. Infante, 2B
9. Garcia, 2B
32-26, 1st place, 2.5 games up on Cle.
Well, the Tigers are a frustrating 4-6 over their last 10, including 3 games where they failed to score a run in the first 9 innings of the game, but yet they managed to pick up a game on the struggling Tribe, losers of four straight. In fact, as stephen likes to allude to from time to time, the Central is so bad that the Tigers .400 winning percentage over the last 10 games is good for 2nd best in the division. CWS may be the worst team in the AL here soon, they are certainly playing like it these days.
Nice series against Tampa Bay, who had a better record than us coming into the series. We’ve got to win series at home.
******
JV climbs the hill tonight for the Tigers, so this gives us an opportunity to examine his recent starts to see if we can identify some causes for his struggles. Thank you Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference for the research tools.
Over his last 5 starts, JV is averaging 5 1/3 IPs, 7.4 hits, 7.4 Ks, 2.2 walks, and 4.4 ER per game. That translates into a 7.42 ERA, 1.79 WHIP, 12.5 K/9 and 3.71 BB/9. Concerning right?
Maybe not.
– Obviously, the ERA is egregious, and it could be explained by the outrageous 2 2/3 8 ER outing versus Texas. If we remove that game, however, his ERA over the other 4 is still a seemingly unacceptable 5.25. But if we look at his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), things come into focus a bit more. With the Texas game, his FIP over the last 5 is 3.59, which is a little above average. If we remove the Texas game, his FIP over the other four games is 2.98, which is fantastic. As a barometer – his career FIP is 3.37; in 2011 in was 2.99, and last year it was 2.94. This year it’s still at 2.60 for the whole season. Salty. More on this in a bit.
– The 1.79 WHIP is, in my mind, even uglier than the ERA. But there’s an easy explanation. The BABIP against JV over the last 5 games is an unbelievable (and unsustainable) .446. This is for a pitcher with a career BABIP of .287. This can be partially explained by the Tigers’ general lack of infield (and recently outfield) range, but it’s also a function of good luck on the part of the opposing batters. If you took at look at BABIP on a game by game basis, 4 of his worst 5 games this season come from the last 5 games. (Note that game by game basis is not really helpful b/c of the small sample size, but looking at these last 5 games against his 12 starts this year does, in my mind, support the bad luck theory.)
– Finally, his K rate of 12.5 over his last 5 games is significantly better than his career rate of 8.53, and in fact, his 10.73 K/9 this year would be the best in his career. Yes, he’s walking a few more this year than usual (2.96 in 2013 v. 2.73 career), but it’s not a huge variance.
So, all in all, despite what has been an awful stretch by his standards, JV is arguably pitching better now that his career norm. It’s been some bad bloops and bad ballparks that have caused the spike in traditional pitching metrics. (Progressive, Oriole, & Rangers ballparks are all top 10 in HR this year). Now, FIP attempts to remove many elements of luck, and rewards Ks and low BB rates, which is why JV’s FIP over the last 5 is so different from this actual ERA. But high Ks and low BBs is a very good thing. And this is strong evidence that we should not be worried one bit about Verlander. (Well, I’ll admit that his 1 mph less FB velocity is intriguing, but I’ll save that for later).
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Tonight’s starter, Ubaldo Jimenez is, not very good anymore. In his last 10 starts he’s registered only 4 of the quality kind, including 1 ER over 6 IPs at Comerica on May 11th. His last outing was his best of the season, when he held Tampa Bay to just 4 hits and 1 BB over 8 innings. But on the season he’s posting a 4.83 ERA (4.21 FIP) and 1.26 WHIP. He strikes out lot of batters, his 9.05 K/9 this season is the best of his career, but he also averages 4+ walks per nine (2013 and career). Cabby (.972 career OPS), Fielder (.814), VMart (1.002), and Peralta (1.094) all rake v. Ubaldo. So on screens, things look very promising for tonight’s match-up. But we’ve read that before.
I don’t really see Cleveland as a threat or contender, but a good three game set by them in Detroit coming off of a bad spell could give them a needless boost. I’d like to see JV put any worries about his recent performance to bed, and put us in a take 1/2 position over the weekend to take the series. It should happen.
Someone please post the lineups later today, as I’ve got a drinking event this afternoon.